The run home

[Sigwald]

At first glance Essendon beating Sydney has done us no favours in the race for the finals. The bombers are two points ahead now, but have played one more game, and Sydney's loss means that they are still within our sights as well. So I thought I'd have a look at our situation now and the run home:

Ladder now

6. St. Kilda 18 10 7 1 42
7. Sydney 18 9 8 1 38
8. Essendon 19 9 9 1 38
9. Fremantle 18 9 9 0 36
10. Kangaroos 18 8 10 0 32
11. Melbourne 18 7 10 1 30
12. Bulldogs 18 7 11 0 28

The Saints are too far ahead, and too good, to catch, where Melbourne and the Dogs need to win all 4 of their last games to get to the usual 11. Not an easy task. So 7th and 8th are still up for grabs for 4 teams. This is the run home for each team:

Sydney: vs Tigers (W), vs Saints (L), vs Cats (L), vs Lions (W)
Essendon: vs Dogs (W), vs WC (L), vs Port (W), Bye
Freo: vs Carlton, vs Roos, vs Pies, vs Dogs
Kangaroos: vs Hawks (L), vs Freo, vs Saints (L), vs Tigers (W)
Demons: vs WC (L), vs Tigers (W/L), vs Suns (W/L), vs Port (W/L)
Dogs: vs Dons (L), vs Port (W), vs Hawks (L), vs Freo

Which means that if we win 3 we're as good as certain that we're in (probably 7th). Next week's match of the Dog vs the Dons is the most important for our chances. If the Dogs win that, we could get in with only two wins out of our last 4.

I'm still hopeful, and if we play up to our potential we can still make it, but it'll be a tough task. We need to win.

What do you guys make of it?

 

[MadMac]

Don't dream, it's over...

 

[Moo]

If we can't beat Carlton - we don't deserve to play finals.

I'm on the one week at a time band wagon

 

[freocuz]

I'm not too concerned about Essendon & Sydney's games and who they play and who they might beat. The problem I have with your theory is that, even if bombers and swans lose every one of their games, we still need to win 1 to get back into the 8.

Be as optimistic as you want, but I can't see one there that we can win on current form.

 

[PLP4ever]

As much as I wish we would make the 8, I don't think it will happen. e will not beat Carlton or Collingwood at home and unfortunately I don't think we will get past North away. Quite possibly we may beat the Bulldogs. That is (unfortuately) the most likely outcome. The only positive will be that we can try out say faulks and Buscovaz etc the last couple of games. Very sorry to say but the way we are going with injuries and fitness I don't see anything else happening.

 

[Admiral Byng]

We need a bit of an improvement in the run home. 4 quarters of footy would nice. A bit of mongrel wouldn't go astray either - we need to rip Carlton's limbs off with our bare hands and beat them around the head with the bloody ends type of mongrel to be a chance of beating them next week.

Otherwise, we need to beat North and the Bulldogs, or hope that Collingwood rest their star players and send over their B team.

 

[Pegasaur]

Collingwood's E-team would beat just about anyone in the comp anyway.

 

[free at last]

If sandi & mundy don't return this week,we are no chance of beating carltank.

 

[MWPP]

I think (and hope) you'll beat Carlton - I'll be cheering for your mob that round
North and Bullies will be tough, but you wouldn't be outsiders in either of those games, even if they are both away. It will be tough to win both of those, but it's still possible. Best wishes

 

[Leslie_Chow]

If we can beat Carlton, then we are every chance. But we won't beat Carlton, so we are no chance.

 

[Pegasaur]

We can get in on 2 wins if Essendon lose to the Bullies
We should get in on 3 wins (assuming Essendon don't beat the Coast)
We will get in on 4 wins, and if we do... WE ARE GOD!

 

[PapaJ]

That's two after the siren kicks that could have changed everything for us - Ballas vs Eagles and Goodes vs Dons. Both or even one of those go in and it's a COMPLETELY different scenario for us. Both miss by a total of say 3 feet and here we are. Amazing .

I think we are good enough for 2 of the last 4 (at best?) - that win for the Dons means that even 2 will probably not be enough. Bad result for us regardless of what OP says.

 

[purplefrog]

The reality is we do not deserve to be in the 8 and unless the players have a massive change of mindset and Harvey gets his selections and team placings right we are no hope in the world.
Watched the Dons and Swans game on TV and saw 2 teams that deserve their place in the 8. If all of the 22 players who take the field for Freo could show that same intensity and will to win for the whole 4 quarters of a game then we would not be having this discussion.

 

[PapaJ]

The reality is we do not deserve to be in the 8 and unless the players have a massive change of mindset and Harvey gets his selections and team placings right we are no hope in the world.
Watched the Dons and Swans game on TV and saw 2 teams that deserve their place in the 8. If all of the 22 players who take the field for Freo could show that same intensity and will to win for the whole 4 quarters of a game then we would not be having this discussion.

Basing all that on one game huh? What did you think after our game vs the Swans at the SCG then? Or our game at Subi vs the Dons?

 

[dominguez]

I'm not too concerned about Essendon & Sydney's games and who they play and who they might beat. The problem I have with your theory is that, even if bombers and swans lose every one of their games, we still need to win 1 to get back into the 8.

Be as optimistic as you want, but I can't see one there that we can win on current form.

Really ?

Our form line is
win
win
bye
win
one point loss
belted by the hawks on a 6 day break
matched a team that on form is a top 4 side for three quarters after another 6 day break.

I'll be disappointed if we don't win two more games, whether that gets us in depends on other results.

 

[dominguez]

That's two after the siren kicks that could have changed everything for us - Ballas vs Eagles and Goodes vs Dons. Both or even one of those go in and it's a COMPLETELY different scenario for us. Both miss by a total of say 3 feet and here we are. Amazing .

I thought the same thing after watching the Goodes kick, they both go through and we'd be playing Carlton this week to all but lock in 8th spot.

 

[purplefrog]

Basing all that on one game huh? What did you think after our game vs the Swans at the SCG then? Or our game at Subi vs the Dons?

Both good wins despite the fact we were outscored in the last quarter of both those games. The most recent of those was about a month ago and based on performances upto then we were and probably deserved to be in the 8 despite the horror injury run. I also flew to Melbourne and saw the Dees game
Now on current form and closing in on the finals based on our last month of football we do not deserve to be there. Our effort at various times during games has at best been pedestrian. Yes maybe unfairly I am judging this on seeing 2 games of football on TV but I could see of those 4 teams who had the desire to make it into Finals and sadly our purple team was not one of them.

 

[Alfonz]

This is how I see the season ending:

Sydney - 46 points
Essendon - 46
Kangaroos - 40
Melbourne - 38
Bulldogs - 36
Freo - 36

We could possibly jump some of the teams above us by beating Bulldogs and North, but that will mean nothing if we can't win another game. There is 0% chance of beating Collingwood, which leaves Carlton. Lose to the Blues and the season is certainly over.

 

[mayne iac]

How do we usually go against Carlton? From memory we seem to match up ok, hopefull that Mundy comes in.

 

[free at last]

We need sandi & Clarke rucking together so we can smash worncock .
Our record last year against carltank was 100%,problem is they've improved about the same as we have gone backwards(injuries to key players).
It really is our last roll of the dice at keeping control of our fortunes.
To those who say we don't deserve to play finals.
If we can make it ,we deserve it, considering the incredible run of injuries to our key players.Where there is life,there is hope.

 

[Lord Rod]

Confident of beating Carlton and Doggies. North at Etihad is winnable if we turn up.We aren't dead yet

 

[Rob]

If sandi & mundy don't return this week,we are no chance of beating carltank.

You're kidding aren't you? We play like we did on Friday for the first 3 quarters we'll win by 7 or 8 goals. Sandi or no Sandi. Carlton are a half decent team, but they're nothing to be feared, especially at Subi.

Here's hoping for a decent 4 quarter performance.

 

[free at last]

You're kidding aren't you? We play like we did on Friday for the first 3 quarters we'll win by 7 or 8 goals. Sandi or no Sandi. Carlton are a half decent team, but they're nothing to be feared, especially at Subi.

Here's hoping for a decent 4 quarter performance.

Carltank ain't in the top 4 for no reason.If we only have Clarke we won't win.

 

[Latro]

The only reason Carlton are top 4 is that they have played 1 more game than the Eagles.

 

[more_of_bito]

With Mundy and Sandi back we can beat north and doggies. Carlton , Pies very tough.
IMO we are a better team than bombers and Sydney.
Next week doggies v bombers. Bombers will all be very sore after Sydney, Doggies off a bye they will be fresh so are a chance.
Bombers win we are talking "mathmatical chances" so put Pav, Hill, Fyfe into surgery and don't bring mundy, sandi back. Put the rest in to play for conracts and have a trade sign up on the window.