Mega Thread The Stats Thread

[grimlock]

Mummy only had 56% Time On Ground, and a lot of it was at FF. Pyke had 82% by comparison and only had very short stints at FF. We could probably estimate the ruck split at about 75-25 Pyke-Mumford

 

[grimlock]

I've missed you guys

Sydney v Essendon review

The game that confounded the statisticians. Essendon with a "World Record" most inside 50s (78) for a losing side. Essendon also dominated most of the other stats (including an absolute +20 pantsing in the clearances) But a closer look at the stats can provide a plausible explanation of why the Swans won: the Swans were cleaner (almost +10% disposal efficiency) and more efficient in front of goal.


Geelong v Carlton review

Geelong lost another contested possession count but end up victors again. Could there be method to this madness?

 

[grimlock]

Sydney v Geelong preview

Geelong are a high marking side, especially in the forward 50. Otherwise their numbers are average or below average in most categories

Sydney summary


Kieren Jack is having some sort of season. Although he started his senior career as a tagger, he is very much an offensive player now ranking in the league - 4th in inside 50s (5.4/game), equal 1st in goal assists (14) and at the Swans 4th in goals (14), 2nd in disposals (23.4/game), 2nd in clearances (3.7/game) and 3rd in tackles (5.4/game)
Rhyce Shaw has had 20 bounces in the past 2 games, after only 2 in the first 9. It has lifted him to 3rd in the competition for bounces, behind Danyle Pearce (35) and brother Heath (31).

Geelong summary

The main goal threats are through the two key forwards Hawkins and Podsiadly who have kicked 48 between them this year. Hawkins is a real marking option, being 4th in the league for marks inside 50 (35). Steve Johnson is playing further up the field hence his goal tally has decreased but his inside 50 numbers have increased commensurately.
Taylor Hunt has taken over the tagging role from retired premiership captain Cameron Ling yet he doesn't rank in the top 5 for the Cats in tackles.

 

[vonn]

Sydney v Geelong preview

Geelong are a high marking side, especially in the forward 50. Otherwise their numbers are average or below average in most categories

Sydney summary


Kieren Jack is having some sort of season. Although he started his senior career as a tagger, he is very much an offensive player now ranking in the league - 4th in inside 50s (5.4/game), equal 1st in goal assists (14) and at the Swans 4th in goals (14), 2nd in disposals (23.4/game), 2nd in clearances (3.7/game) and 3rd in tackles (5.4/game)
Rhyce Shaw has had 20 bounces in the past 2 games, after only 2 in the first 9. It has lifted him to 3rd in the competition for bounces, behind Danyle Pearce (35) and brother Heath (31).

Geelong summary

The main goal threats are through the two key forwards Hawkins and Podsiadly who have kicked 48 between them this year. Hawkins is a real marking option, being 4th in the league for marks inside 50 (35). Steve Johnson is playing further up the field hence his goal tally has decreased but his inside 50 numbers have increased commensurately.
Taylor Hunt has taken over the tagging role from retired premiership captain Cameron Ling yet he doesn't rank in the top 5 for the Cats in tackles.

I like this.

 

[DeadlyAkkuret]

It's so pleasing to see Kieren back in 2010 form, now he just needs to stay on the park.

Ablett-esque at his best.

 

[grimlock]

GWS v Melbourne


Melbourne, who were near the bottom of many statistical categories going into match posted elite numbers in areas in which they had struggled with all season. For example, their highest Inside 50 count before meeting the Giants was 51, and they ended up with 74.

Sydney v Geelong

The Cats won only their second contested possession count of the year.

 

[grimlock]

GWS Summary


Sydney Summary


Comparison

As you can see, GWS are scraping the bottom for most categories

 

[grimlock]

One big reason why we've improved this year is the significant turnaround in our goalkicking accuracy. Last year we kicked 267.295 at an accuracy of 47.5% ranking 16th (out of 17 teams). This year we have improved to 177.131 at an accuracy of 57.5%, ranking 1st in the competition.

Almost all of our major goalkickers have improved their accuracy this year, suggesting it has been some concerted practice and coaching going on, not just pure luck (Nick Davis has come to savis again?)

Goalkicking accuracy improvement, 2011 first, 2012 second (note: does not contain Finals games stats)

1. Josh Kennedy 10.18 (35.7%) => 15.3 (83.3%) +47.6%
2. Ryan O'Keefe 13.20 (39.4%) => 11.2 (84.6%) +45.2%
3. Lewis Jetta 9.12 (42.9%) => 28.10 (73.7%) +30.6%
4. Trent Dennis-Lane 3.3 (50.0%) => 6.2 (75.0%) +25.0%
5. Shane Mumford 8.2 (80.0%) => 3.0 (100.0%) +20.0%
6. Kieren Jack 6.4 (60.0%) => 15.4 (79.0%) +19.0%
7. Jude Bolton 19.12 (61.3%) => 12.4 (75.0%) +13.7%
8. Craig Bird 10.8 (55.6%) => 6.3 (66.7%) +11.1%
9. Adam Goodes 36.31 (53.7%) => 12.7 (63.2%) +9.5%
10. Sam Reid 20.23 (46.5%) => 13.11 (54.2%) +8.7%
11. Ben McGlynn 28.23 (54.9%) => 16.12 (57.1%) +2.2%
12. Andrejs Everitt 8.5 (61.5%) => 7.4 (63.6%) +2.1%
13. Luke Parker 8.8 (50.0%) => 3.3 (50.0%) 0.0%
14. Lewis Roberts-Thomson 12.5 (70.6%) => 6.3 (66.7%) -3.9%
15. Gary Rohan 7.3 (70.0%) => 3.2 (60.0%) -10.0%
16. Jarrad McVeigh 18.10 (64.3%) => 6.7 (46.2%) -18.1%

 

[Riders of Rohan]

I'm loving how our main mids are all averaging over or near a goal a game. Though at times I think we struggle running both ways their offensive power at the moment is awesome, more than making up for our forward lines troubles.

Also surprised Parker hasn't found more opportunities around goal. One of his key attributes when drafted was his ability to go forward and kick a goal, and yet apart from the Melbourne game hasn't kicked any. Hopefully when he returns from injury we'll see some improvement there.

 

[grimlock]

hmmmmm http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/swans-on-target-its-a-boot-point-20120628-215cf.html

 

[Dangas]

Liking the even spread of goalkickers, means we don't rely just on one player, probably due to the Goodesy injury, our focus has varied, it'll be interesting to see how we go with the champ in the side, do we always spot him up in the forwardline or do we continue to get those important goals from our mids and smalls, only time will tell.

 

[Dangas]

hmmmmm http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/swans-on-target-its-a-boot-point-20120628-215cf.html

nice article grim, your input "should" have been sourced

 

[grimlock]

Brisbane v Melbourne review


Very Swans like numbers in converting the most of limited inside 50s.

Swans v GWS review

Season highs in handballs, possessions, uncontested possessions, marks inside 50, behinds and effective disposals

 

[grimlock]

Brisbane summary

The bottom 4 contested possession (%) are all half back flankers, so Brisbane will be looking to free them up as much as possible

Swans summary

Random facts: Ted Richards #1 in the AFL in one-percenters, Rhyce Shaw #1 in the AFL in bounces, Josh Kennedy #4 in the AFL in clearances, Kieren Jack equal #2 in the AFL in inside 50s AND equal #3 in assists

 

[grimlock]

Comparison

1st and 2nd respectively in goalkicking accuracy!

 

[RW]

Thanks Grim! Great work.

My thoughts - I would just be careful when interpreting the contested possession counts in games we win v lose, especially where the numbers are close, and given the new style we are playing, since this could mean that more of the opposing team's possessions are under pressure and they are being forced to work harder to win the ball, with the result that we lose the overall count (this would have been the case in the Essendon game where our pressure was so good for the first three quarters). This can be seen most clearly in the Swans v GWS game, where we ended up winning the count by 1, 157-156, but only 36% of our possessions were contested, while 45% of theirs were. Clearly, we won a lot more easy ball than they did. On the other hand, if a side is getting smashed in the contested possessions, week in, week out, and not winning games, then it's likely to indicate some underlying weakness in their midfield and lack of quality 'inside' players.

I really like the goalkicking accuracy improvement figures, also - shows the impact of goalkicking practice most clearly!

 

[grimlock]

West Coast v North Melbourne review


West Coast struggled in converting inside 50s into shots on goal, an area you would expect to worse with Lynch and Hill out for them. It was a good thing they kicked straight against North otherwise they would have lost.

Sydney v Brisbane review


The Swans dominated the stats sheet although the contested possession numbers were a little down. They had the greatest clearance differential (+10) of their season thus far

 

[grimlock]

West Coast summary

Lots of blue and gold in the rightmost columns indicate a very impressive set of numbers for the Eagles. The big holes will come with the outs of Lynch and Hill, #2 and #3 on their goalkicking lists respectively but perhaps more importantly they will be missing some creativity in Hill and Waters, #3 and #4 in assists respectively.

Priddis #3 in clearances, Cox #11 and Naitanui #12 in contested marks the Eagles to watch out for. Gaff with a team high uncontested possession rate of 78.6% averaging 24.9 touches is the premium outside player for the club.

Sydney summary

Sam Reid's career best game boosted his standings in goals (#2), contested marks (#1) and marks inside 50 (#1). Kieren Jack is now the clear leader in goal assists in the AFL (17) as well as #4 in inside 50s.

The Swans have the #1 defence in the competition with the least Points Against, and this is backed up by their #1 rankings in Opposition Goal Kicking Percentage (how accurate their opponents are in front of goal) and Opposition Goal Rate per inside 50 (Number of opposition goals / Number of opposition inside 50s)

 

[grimlock]

Preview


A real clash of styles, especially in the marking department. West Coast are #1 and Sydney #18 - the Eagles like to hold on to the ball preferring to chip it around if no clear option presents itself up the ground whereas the Swans are keen to move it on quick and direct to utilise the open spaces for the likes of McGlynn, Jetta, Jack and McVeigh to run onto.

The Eagles are also very skilful, #2 in disposal efficiency and #1 in clangers (i.e. the least number of clangers) and their efficiency in front goal has them in the top 6 in this area. Numerous kerfuffles have been raised in the media about the number of head high free kicks they receive (#1 in the AFL in Frees For), but what is sometimes overlooked is that they also give away the least number of free kicks.

 

[grimlock]

Inside 50s conceded (avg)

1. GWS 63.7
2. Gold Coast 60.2
3. Melbourne 59.0
4. Brisbane 55.2
5. Port Adelaide 54.4
6. North Melbourne 52.3
7. Essendon 50.5
8. Fremantle 50.1
9. Western Bulldogs 50.0
10. Collingwood 49.5
11. Adelaide 49.1
12. St Kilda 48.7
13. Geelong 48.1
14. Sydney 47.7
15. Carlton 47.6
16. Richmond 46.4
17. West Coast 46.2
18. Hawthorn 45.3

Goals conceded per Inside 50 conceded (%)

1. GWS 29.1%
2. North Melbourne 28.0%
3. Western Bulldogs 27.7%
4. Gold Coast 27.7%
5. Richmond 27.6%
6. Melbourne 26.9%
7. St Kilda 26.8%
8. Carlton 26.6%
9. Geelong 25.9%
10. Port Adelaide 25.6%
11. West Coast 25.3%
12. Fremantle 24.2%
13. Adelaide 24.0%
14. Brisbane 24.0%
15. Hawthorn 23.7%
16. Essendon 23.2%
17. Collingwood 22.8%
18. Sydney 20.4%

 

[barry fu]

Preview


A real clash of styles, especially in the marking department. West Coast are #1 and Sydney #18 - the Eagles like to hold on to the ball preferring to chip it around if no clear option presents itself up the ground whereas the Swans are keen to move it on quick and direct to utilise the open spaces for the likes of McGlynn, Jetta, Jack and McVeigh to run onto.

The Eagles are also very skilful, #2 in disposal efficiency and #1 in clangers (i.e. the least number of clangers) and their efficiency in front goal has them in the top 6 in this area. Numerous kerfuffles have been raised in the media about the number of head high free kicks they receive (#1 in the AFL in Frees For), but what is sometimes overlooked is that they also give away the least number of free kicks.

Outstanding Grim 1, I can only but imagine your corduroy cardigan collection.
Interesting to see the discrepancy in 1 percenters to the good of Club Bloods. No doubt Mummy The Marauder and centre square shepherding adds to the numbers. He is the best ruck in the business at shepherding his midfield mates.

 

[grimlock]

St Kilda v Brisbane review

Sydney v West Coast review

 

[grimlock]

Comparison

Contrasting styles: Saints love to kick it more than the Swans, and the fact that St Kilda are high in goals, bounces and assists shows they have broken off from the Ross Lyon defensive style of football to adopt Scott Watters' more attacking brand.

Sydney summary


St Kilda summary

 

[BarneyBent]

Wow. Sydney and WC have the exact same number of uncontested possessions. Freaky!

 

[grimlock]

Sydney summary


Gold Coast summary


Comparison


As you can see the Suns are toward the bottom end for most of the categories. Even the one area in which they were strong at last year, clearances (1st or 2nd for most of 2011 before tumbling a little to finish a respectable 8th) has fallen away dramatically this year.