Mega Thread The Stats Thread

grimlock · Jul 22, 2016

Centre square
v Hawthorn

With Tom Mitchell earmarked to tag Sam Mitchell again, the Swans had to sacrifice Hannebery to be more of an outside midfielder in this game. The Swans only ran 5 players in the middle all game, essentially 4 if you discount's Hannebery lone appearance. The Hawks meanwhile rotated up to 8 players all night.

Player | v | Times
\ Parker || 22
\|Mitchell|6
\|Burgoyne|6
\|Hodge|3
\|Lewis|3
\|Rioli|3
\|Breust|1
\ Kennedy || 19
\|Mitchell|9
\|Burgoyne|4
\|Lewis|3
\|O'Rourke|1
\|Puopolo|1
\|Rioli|1
\ Mitchell || 16
\|Mitchell|5
\|Breust|2
\|Burgoyne|2
\|Hodge|2
\|Lewis|2
\|Smith|1
\|O'Rourke|1
\|Puopolo|1
\ K.Jack || 14
\|Gunston|3
\|Rioli|3
\|Burgoyne|2
\|Lewis|2
\|O'Rourke|1
\|Puopolo|1
\|Smith|1
\|Whitecross|1
\ Hannebery || 1
\|Hodge|1

Season to date
Mitchell overtakes Jack and moves into the Top 3.

Rucks centre square
v Hawthorn
Naismith clearly the number one ruck, 64 out of 102 ruck contests, and 19 of 24 centre bounces

Player | v | Times
\ Naismith || 19
\|Ceglar|15
\|McEvoy|4
\ Sinclair || 5
\|McEvoy|4
\|Ceglar|1

Season to date

Kick ins
v Hawthorn

Player | Times
\McVeigh|6
\Jones|2
\Rampe|1

Season to date
With Laidler out, McVeigh moves into the lead

CheapCharlie · Jul 22, 2016

grimlock said:
This is a fantastic read

https://thearcfooty.com/2016/07/20/close-games-and-coin-tosses/

I've been saying it... statistically sydney will win some close ones and even the ledger...let's just hope it's in the finals where it counts

RW · Jul 22, 2016

I had some time to kill on a Friday afternoon (call it procrasti-moderating if you like) so I thought I'd compile a list of blogs/websites that look at stats in footy as there seem to be a few around.

The Arc Footy (mostly graphs)
https://thearcfooty.com/

Hurling People Now (weekly ratings of each team's attack and defence compared to the league average)
https://hurlingpeoplenow.wordpress.com/

Matter of Stats (statistical modelling, analysing and predicting the results of games)
http://www.matterofstats.com/

Max Barry's Squiggle (live updates of each team's offensive and defensive ratings using nice, coloured squiggly lines)
http://maxbarry.com/squiggle/

FootyMaths Institute (team rankings, predictions, opinions)
http://footymaths.blogspot.com.au/

Feel free to post links to any others you know about!

grimlock · Jul 26, 2016

Centre square
v Carlton

K.Jack started the game at half forward and as a result spent less time in the middle. Hannebery slightly more time as an inside midfielder.

Player | v | Times
\ Kennedy || 21
\|Cripps|6
\|Gibbs|6
\|E.Curnow|4
\|Graham|3
\|Kerridge|1
\|Wright|1
\ Parker || 17
\|Wright|6
\|Cripps|5
\|E.Curnow|4
\|Gibbs|1
\|Graham|1
\ Hannebery || 14
\|Gibbs|5
\|Wright|4
\|Cripps|2
\|E.Curnow|2
\|Graham|1
\ K.Jack || 10
\|Gibbs|4
\|Cripps|4
\|Graham|1
\|Wright|1
\ Mitchell || 10
\|Cripps|4
\|Gibbs|3
\|Graham|2
\|Wright|1

Season to date

Rucks centre square
v Carlton

Naismith still the clear number 1 ruck. Sinclair was the ruckman in 3 of the 24 ruck contests in the 2nd quarter, Towers also had 3 ruck contests in that quarter

Player | v | Times
\ Naismith ||18
\|Kreuzer|11
\|Phillips|7
\ Sinclair ||6
\|Phillips|5
\|Kreuzer|1

Season to date

Kick outs
v Carlton
With regular takers McVeigh, Laidler and Jones out and other regular takers Rampe (only once in the past 4 games) and Mills (none since the Richmond game) not in regular rotation, it was left to newly minted defenders Cunningham and Lloyd to take 7 of the 8 kick ins. Rampe took the last one of the game with only 55 seconds left on the clock

Player | Times
\Lloyd|4
\Cunningham|3
\Rampe|1

Season to date

grimlock · Aug 4, 2016

We'll never stop stop stop til we play like you.

A cursory look at the stats reveals that the Power play a similar style to the Swans. They are the most contested sides in the league (Table 1), rack up huge tackles per game (Table 2) and a as a consequence are the most inefficient disposal teams both offensively and defensively (Tables 3 and 4).

The big difference at the moment is that the Swans are a much better defensive side than the Power. Port are actually very good in the goals conceded per inside 50 conceded stat but they have let it far too many inside 50s this year. They have however caused the opposition to concede the most clangers on average, an indication of the pressure game that Hinkley has implemented over his tenure at the Power. (Table 5)

Therefore in the predicted downpour on Saturday, expect a really dour struggle between two of the most competitive, contested teams in the AFL.

Table 1: Contested Possession Rate

Team | CP % | Rank
\ Sydney | 42.82% | 1st
\ Port Adelaide | 41.23% | 2nd
\Brisbane|40.40%|3rd
\N. Melbourne|40.09%|4th
\Adelaide|39.56%|5th
\West Coast|39.49%|6th
\Geelong|38.83%|7th
\GWS|38.83%|8th
\Melbourne|38.45%|9th
\Richmond|38.38%|10th
\Fremantle|38.29%|11th
\Collingwood|38.20%|12th
\Gold Coast|37.92%|13th
\Hawthorn|36.59%|14th
\Carlton|35.83%|15th
\St Kilda|35.75%|16th
\W. Bulldogs|35.46%|17th
\Essendon|35.04%|18th

Table 2: Tackles per game

Team | Avg. Tackles | Rank
\ Sydney | 82.2 | 1st
\Collingwood|79.1|2nd
\ Port Adelaide | 77.2 | 3rd
\Fremantle|74.2|4th
\Melbourne|72.8|5th
\Geelong|72.5|6th
\Gold Coast|71.7|7th
\Hawthorn|71.2|eq. 8th
\West Coast|71.2|eq. 8th
\Adelaide|69.2|10th
\Brisbane|68.6|11th
\N. Melbourne|67.8|12th
\Essendon|67.3|13th
\GWS|67.1|14th
\St Kilda|67.1|15th
\W. Bulldogs|66.7|16th
\Carlton|65.8|17th
\Richmond|62.8|18th

Table 3: Offensive disposal efficiency

Team | Disp. Eff % | Rank
\St Kilda|75.16%|1st
\Carlton|74.72%|2nd
\Hawthorn|74.66%|3rd
\W. Bulldogs|74.61%|4th
\Geelong|74.00%|5th
\Essendon|73.78%|6th
\N. Melbourne|73.77%|7th
\Richmond|73.75%|8th
\Collingwood|73.32%|9th
\GWS|73.09%|10th
\Fremantle|73.05%|11th
\Melbourne|73.01%|12th
\West Coast|72.96%|13th
\Adelaide|72.40%|14th
\Gold Coast|71.95%|15th
\Brisbane|71.54%|16th
\ Port Adelaide | 70.87% | 17th
\ Sydney | 70.37% | 18th

Table 4: Defensive disposal effiency

Team | Disp. Eff % | Rank
\ Sydney | 69.30% | 1st
\ Port Adelaide | 70.93% | 2nd
\Geelong|71.12%|3rd
\Adelaide|71.22%|4th
\Melbourne|71.75%|5th
\Hawthorn|72.34%|6th
\GWS|72.60%|7th
\N. Melbourne|73.13%|8th
\Collingwood|73.36%|9th
\Brisbane|73.56%|10th
\Richmond|73.73%|11th
\Gold Coast|73.87%|12th
\West Coast|73.98%|13th
\Carlton|74.24%|14th
\Fremantle|74.48%|15th
\W. Bulldogs|75.13%|16th
\St Kilda|75.84%|17th
\Essendon|76.05%|18th

Table 5: Opposition average clangers

Team | Clangers | Rank
\ Port Adelaide | 53.7 | eq. 1st
\West Coast|53.7|eq. 1st
\Collingwood|53.2|eq. 3rd
\Hawthorn|53.2|eq. 3rd
\W. Bulldogs|53.1|5th
\ Sydney | 52.3 | 6th
\Adelaide|52.1|7th
\Geelong|51.8|eq. 8th
\N. Melbourne|51.8|eq. 8th
\Brisbane|50.5|10th
\GWS|50.4|11th
\Melbourne|50.1|12th
\Richmond|49.9|13th
\Carlton|49.7|14th
\Essendon|49.1|15th
\Fremantle|47.4|16th
\St Kilda|45.7|17th
\Gold Coast|45.2|18th

grimlock · Aug 4, 2016

Centre square
v Freo

The biggest take away was that Mitchell was tagging Hill and hence only spent time at one centre square bounce. Hewett received some experience there in the 4th quarter

Player | v | Times
\ Parker || 29
\|Neale|12
\|Mundy|6
\|Hill|5
\|de Boer|2
\|Walters|2
\|Pearce|1
\|Weller|1
\ Kennedy || 27
\|Mundy|10
\|de Boer|4
\|Neale|4
\|Hill|3
\|Pearce|3
\|Pavlich|1
\|Walters|1
\|Weller|1
\ Hannebery || 21
\|Mundy|5
\|Neale|5
\|Weller|5
\|Hill|3
\|Pearce|3
\ K.Jack || 13
\|Mundy|5
\|Weller|3
\|Hill|2
\|Neale|2
\|Pearce|1
\ Hewett || 3
\|Hill|2
\|Tucker|1
\ McVeigh || 2
\|Mundy|1
\|Walters|1
\ Mitchell || 1
\|Hill|1

Season to date

Rucks centre square
v Freo

Naismith again clearly the number 1 ruck, rested late in the game with Nankervis taking the last 4 centre bounces

In general, tjere were 105 ruck contests in the game. Naismith contested 60, Nankervis 42 and Xavier Richards 3.

Player | v | Times
\ Naismith || 23
\|Clarke|20
\|Collins|2
\|Dawson|1
\ Nankervis || 9
\|Clarke|7
\|Collins|2

Season to date

Kick ins
v Freo

Even though McVeigh was back, he was not playing in the back line and hence the kicks in fell to Lloyd and Cunningham instead

Player | Times
\Cunningham|3
\Lloyd|2

Season to date

grimlock · Aug 11, 2016

grimlock · Aug 11, 2016

Centre square
v Port Adelaide

Mitchell nowhere to be seen again for the second week in a row, making it just one centre bounce in the last 2 matches.

Player | vs | Times
\ Kennedy || 21
\|Wines|8
\|Ah Chee|3
\|Boak|3
\|R.Gray|3
\|S.Gray|2
\|Polec|1
\|Young|1
\ Parker || 19
\|Boak|5
\|Wines|4
\|Wingard|3
\|Ah Chee|2
\|R.Gray|2
\|S.Gray|2
\|Ebert|1
\ Hannebery || 12
\|Ebert|8
\|Wines|2
\|Boak|1
\|Wingard|1
\ K.Jack || 11
\|R.Gray|4
\|Boak|2
\|Impey|2
\|S.Gray|2
\|Ah Chee|1
\ McVeigh || 2
\|Ebert|1
\|Impey|1
\ Heeney || 1
\|Wines|1

Season to date

Rucks centre square
v Port Adelaide

Naismith again the main ruckman, but was rested for the last 10-15 minutes of the game. But because there was only 1 goal kicked in the last quarter that didn't get reflected in the centre square numbers. Around the ground, Naismith took 49 of the 84 ruck contests, with Nankervis taking the other 35.

Player | vs | Times
\ Naismith || 17
\|Trengove|16
\|Butcher|1
\ Nankervis || 5
\|Trengove|4
\|Westhoff|1

Season to date

Kick ins
v Port Adelaide

Lloyd now the main kick in taker.

Season to date

J_Moore · Aug 17, 2016

https://storify.com/Championdata/recruiting-now

Champion Data are recruiting for casual stats callers for the 2017 seasons of AFL and the state leagues. What a time to be alive.

RW · Aug 17, 2016

http://figuringfooty.com/2016/08/17...ytics-from-providing-afl-club-success-part-1/

Interesting article about the use of stats and analytics in footy.

Ticky009 · Aug 17, 2016

RW said:
http://figuringfooty.com/2016/08/17...ytics-from-providing-afl-club-success-part-1/

Interesting article about the use of stats and analytics in footy.

Nice link, and he's right, the sort of analysts he's talking about do not come cheap. We've got one bloke that was head hunted from the UK for his skills.

grimlock · Aug 18, 2016

Centre square
v St Kilda

Towers for the first time this year spent most of the second half in the centre. He had only attended one centre bounce in the previous 20 rounds. An interesting move in the 3rd last H&A round. Mitchell continues to stay away from the centre, only getting some opportunities very late in the game.

Player | v | Times
\ Kennedy || 29
\|Armitage|10
\|Gresham|7
\|Steven|7
\|Ross|3
\|Weller|2
\ Parker || 26
\|Ross|13
\|Armitage|6
\|Steven|4
\|Gresham|3
\ K.Jack || 24
\|Steven|18
\|Gresham|3
\|Acres|2
\|Weller|1
\ Hannebery || 17
\|Armitage|6
\|Ross|3
\|Steven|3
\|Gresham|2
\|Weller|2
\|Acres|1
\ Towers || 12
\|Armitage|5
\|Ross|4
\|Gresham|1
\|Steven|1
\|Weller|1
\ Mitchell || 4
\|Ross|2
\|Gresham|1
\|Steven|1
\ Hewett || 2
\|Gresham|1
\|Weller|1

Season to date

Ruck centre square
v St Kilda
Naismith struggled early on against Hickey who outpointed him on more than a few occasions. But once Hickey went off, his replacement Bruce had little impact - he finished with 0 hitouts.

Player | v | Times
\Naismith|23
\|Hickey|19
\|Bruce|4
\Nankervis|15
\|Bruce|8
\|Hickey|7

Kick ins
v St Kilda
The kick ins are very much a Lloyd and Cunningham double job now.

Player | Times
\Lloyd|7
\Cunningham|3

Season to date

grimlock · Aug 18, 2016

grimlock · Aug 25, 2016

Centre square
v North Melbourne

With K.Jack out, Hannebery played more on the inside while Mitchell was the main beneficiary getting 11 centre bounces after just 1 in the previous 2 games.

Player | v | Times
\ Kennedy || 23
\|Dumont|9
\|Ziebell|7
\|Cunnington|3
\|Wells|2
\|Anderson|1
\|Swallow|1
\ Parker || 22
\|Swallow|6
\|Cunnington|5
\|Wells|4
\|Ziebell|4
\|Anderson|1
\|Dumont|1
\|Gibson|1
\ Hannebery || 18
\|Swallow|5
\|Wells|5
\|Cunnington|4
\|Ziebell|3
\|Dumont|1
\ Mitchell || 11
\|Swallow|4
\|Cunnington|2
\|Dumont|2
\|Wells|2
\|Anderson|1
\ McVeigh || 2
\|Anderson|1
\|Cunnington|1
\ Towers || 1
\|Ziebell|1

Season to date

Rucks centre square
v North Melbourne

There were a few instances where Naismith took the centre bounce but Tippett would take the subsequent ruck contests around the ground. Overall Naismith took 51 of 83 ruck contests.

Player |v| Times
\ Naismith || 19
\|Daw|11
\ Tippett || 7
\|Daw|4
\|Goldstein|3

Season to date

Kick ins
v North Melbourne
Lloyd and Cunningham, as has been the case for the past 5 weeks, are the major kick in takers. Rampe took a quick one.

Player | Times
\Lloyd|10
\Cunningham|5
\Rampe|1

Season to date

grimlock · Aug 25, 2016

grimlock · Sep 22, 2016

This is a good read

http://figuringfooty.com/2016/09/22/a-fresh-way-to-think-about-footy-geelong-v-sydney-guest-post/

The Swans Blog · Sep 23, 2016

Nice grimlock but why stop?

grimlock · Sep 27, 2016

Centre square
v Geelong

The Fab Five is now officially a Super Six with Heeney joining the midfield rotation. Noticeably his big body was used against the powerful Dangerfield, and so wouldn't be suprising if he had time on Bontempelli this week.

Player | v | Times
\ Kennedy || 20
\|J.Selwood|7
\|S.Selwood|7
\|Dangerfield|4
\|Caddy|1
\|Duncan|1
\ Hannebery || 16
\|J.Selwood|7
\|Guthrie|3
\|Menegola|3
\|Dangerfield|2
\|Caddy|1
\ Mitchell || 14
\|Dangerfield|5
\|Caddy|2
\|Menegola|2
\|J.Selwood|2
\|S.Selwood|2
\|Guthrie|1
\ Parker || 14
\|J.Selwood|4
\|S.Selwood|4
\|Dangerfield|3
\|Guthrie|2
\|Menegola|1
\ K.Jack || 9
\|J.Selwood|3
\|Caddy|2
\|Dangerfield|2
\|Menegola|1
\|S.Selwood|1
\ Heeney || 8
\|Dangerfield|6
\|Menegola|1
\|J.Selwood|1

Season to date

Ruck centre square
v Geelong

Geelong rotated their Stanley and Smith through the ruck with Blicavs coming in as third man quite often. Overall there were 85 ruck contests with Naismith attending 51 of those.

Player | v | Times
\ Naismith || 19
\|Stanley|10
\|Smith|8
\|Blicavs|1
\ Tippett || 8
\|Smith|6
\|Blicavs|1
\|Stanley|1

Season to date

Kick ins
v Geelong

Lloyd continues to take the majority of the kick ins, but Jones was an interesting addition to the set up. Rohan took the last 2 kick ins of the match when the result was done and dusted.

Season to date

TripleB · Sep 28, 2016

I really like those stats, particularly the centre square matchups.

I can't believe they've been there all year and I have just discovered them 3 days before the GF...

grimlock · Apr 21, 2017

Lots of orange, not much red.

There is a striking disparity between the Giants's efficiency (both forward and midfield) and the Swans's efficiency. The Swans surprisingly have conceded the the fewest marks inside 50 in the competition, but on the flip side this would imply that plenty of goals are coming from open play.

RW · Apr 21, 2017

We're still 2nd in tackles and 3rd in contested possessions, but we're 18th in both contested possessions and tackles against, which would suggest we are getting beaten at our own game.

grimlock · Apr 21, 2017

We've always been 'bad' at those categories, only because that's the style we play. The stat that has fallen away alarmingly is goals conceded per inside 50 conceded, we've always been heads and shoulders above the rest of the competition but so far this year we are 14th.

grimlock · Apr 23, 2017

108 contested possessions last night, the lowest in the 5 years I've been collating the stats and by some margin too.

grimlock · Apr 23, 2017

Rucks

Mumford v Sinclair 50-11 hitouts 14-1 hitouts to advantage
Mumford v Tippett 12-10 hitouts 4-1 hitouts to advantage
Lobb v Sinclair 4-2 hitouts 2-0 hitouts to advanrage
Lobb v Tippett 1-5 hitouts 0-2 hitouts to advantage

With Naismith out for a few weeks our best hope is for Tippett to find fitness and form to be our number 1 ruck because Sinclair is absolutely useless.

RW · Apr 23, 2017

Yikes, those stats for Sinclair are seriously unflattering.

At the game he was clearly outpointed by Mummy but I didn't think the discrepancy was that big.

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