List Mgmt. The too early Jackson Edwards 2017 Draft Plan

[Maggsy]

I know we just finished 2016 draft, but I thought it would be interesting to make prediction on the Jackson Edwards situation now then see how it plays out for the year.


OK. Now I’m predicting the crows to have a big year,. Top 3 so based on this (and the fact we still have all of our 2017 picks) that would net us Picks 16 / 34 / 52 / 70 / 88 - Pre trade period.,


Working on the basis that Edwards looks like a monster, I’m expecting his stocks to rise throughout this SANFL season and state carnival, I’m picking his value to be somewhere around the 8-12 mark come draft day (well aware this is not currently the case – This is a prediction)


I liked the way GWS traded down to ensure they still got high picks (non-academy) as well as leaving themselves enough room to bid when interested in their local academy kids, I suggest we do the same with Edwards. Look at ways to turn out pick 16 into a pick 3-8 while still moving our other picks down enough to carry enough points to grab Edwards without putting ourselves into deficit.


I can see us trading two of Atkins, Knight, CEY, Mackay at the end of the season depending on who does/doesn’t lock themselves into our best 25-26 players. Personally I would prefer we keep Knight and CEY, but for the exercise let’s work out a trade value for each of the 4. (conservative below)

Atkins – Pick 30-40

Knight – Pick 30-40

CEY – Pick 30-40

Mackay – Pick 60-70


Option A: We trade Mackay (which I think is the general consensus) and one of the other 3 – this would likely get us say pick 65 + 35, changing out picks to 16, 34, 35, 52, 65, 70, 88 - Adding 2 additional picks


Option B: We trade Mackay + pick 52 and one of the other 3 and pick 34 , perhaps we get this would likely get us say pick 45 + 24, changing out picks to 16, 24, 45, 70, 88 – Upgrading 2 current picks



What do think it would take to get that desired pick 3-8? + have some picks with enough points leftover, to secure our desired draft haul ???


I have a couple of ideas,.


Option A: we trade Josh Jenkins for say pick 15-25, I love the bloke in our team but by the start of the 2018 season he will be 29 and still carrying a BIG trade value. In the past couple of years we have added a number of young KPP who could be included into the fold (along with The magic McGovern)


Option B: we shuffle out picks above to try and get say picks 7, 30, 48, 50, 52, 54, 55 – Which I believe would land us whoever we draft at 7, Jackson Edwards and another downgraded pick for Hamish to play with around the 50-60 mark


Thoughts?

 

[spenze]

On what planet does CEY nab us a pick in the 30s?

 

[Geoffa32]

I reckon we don't nominate to match bids and wait till he falls to the Rookie Draft.

Worked last time.




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[Scorpus]

If he's projected as a pick before our first pick, we should trade our first round pick for a player or other picks and use late picks to match bids for Edwards

 

[Vader]

On what planet does CEY nab us a pick in the 30s?

Agreed. I'm expecting CEY to follow Grigg's path - with the club attempting to trade him, finding no buyers, then delisting him after the end of the trading period.

The chances of Mackay being traded are somewhere between zero and non-existent. Atkins and Knight are only marginally more likely, but still well below 1% chance of happening.

Kind of blows a hole in the entire trading scenario outlined in the OP.

 

[Vader]

If he's projected as a pick before our first pick, we should trade our first round pick for a player or other picks and use late picks to match bids for Edwards

In which case we end up with Edwards, plus picks 80, 81 and 82. I'm not sure that's a good strategy.

 

[Niximus]

In which case we end up with Edwards, plus picks 80, 81 and 82. I'm not sure that's a good strategy.

You'd also have the player that you traded that first pick for so if hypothetically we had picks 15, 33, 51, 69, you'd have a first round level player traded in with 15, and a first round player (edwards) drafter with 33, 51, 69. Not that bad.

 

[Scorpus]

In which case we end up with Edwards, plus picks 80, 81 and 82. I'm not sure that's a good strategy.

We'll we'd end up with a first round player from the trade along with Edwards and some junk picks. Two first-round-type players in a single draft period is very good despite whatever other crap we'd pick up later

 

[Vader]

You'd also have the player that you traded that first pick for so if hypothetically we had picks 15, 33, 51, 69, you'd have a first round level player traded in with 15, and a first round player (edwards) drafter with 33, 51, 69. Not that bad.

That might work if we were only looking at drafting a few players. I think we'll see a high turnover in 2017, at least as big as what we saw this year.

The following players are either facing "make or break" seasons, or are unlikely to be on Adelaide's list in 2017:
Scott Thompson
Andrew Otten
Curtly Ellis-Yolmen
Dean Gore
David Mackay **
Jake Kelly
Harrison Wigg
Troy Menzel
Curtly Hampton

** Contracted for 2018

I'm not saying that all of these players will be gone, but their positions would definitely be up for review if they can't establish themselves in the best 22 before the end of the 2017.

 

[Vader]

We'll we'd end up with a first round player from the trade along with Edwards and some junk picks. Two first-round-type players in a single draft period is very good despite whatever other crap we'd pick up later

Depends on how many players we're being forced to take with "junk picks".

Still not sure how this fantasy of upgrading our 1st rounder, to make it higher than Edwards' likely draft position, is likely to work out in reality.

 

[Scorpus]

That might work if we were only looking at drafting a few players. I think we'll see a high turnover in 2017, at least as big as what we saw this year.

The following players are either facing "make or break" seasons, or are unlikely to be on Adelaide's list in 2017:
Scott Thompson
Andrew Otten
Curtly Ellis-Yolmen
Dean Gore
David Mackay **
Jake Kelly
Harrison Wigg
Troy Menzel
Curtly Hampton

** Contracted for 2018

I'm not saying that all of these players will be gone, but their positions would definitely be up for review if they can't establish themselves in the best 22 before the end of the 2017.

I think Mackay, Wigg, Menzel and Hampton will be retained, which only leaves Thompson, Otten, CEY, Kelly and Gore as possible departures. (Gore could get a dead man walking contract).

A four to five player turnover isn't terrible. Using my strategy we'd get in two quality first round types, plus one or two later picks, and a rookie upgrade for someone like Greenwood or Beech. If we could trade CEY (maybe) or bring in a free agent, even better.

 

[Rory Walkerfield]

That might work if we were only looking at drafting a few players. I think we'll see a high turnover in 2017, at least as big as what we saw this year.

The following players are either facing "make or break" seasons, or are unlikely to be on Adelaide's list in 2017:
Scott Thompson
Andrew Otten
Curtly Ellis-Yolmen
Dean Gore
David Mackay **
Jake Kelly
Harrison Wigg
Troy Menzel
Curtly Hampton

** Contracted for 2018

I'm not saying that all of these players will be gone, but their positions would definitely be up for review if they can't establish themselves in the best 22 before the end of the 2017.

You can remove Menzel and Hampton from that list, no way either of them are getting flicked two years after spending second rounders on them (more in the case of Menzel).

 

[GrommoT]

I reckon we don't nominate to match bids and wait till he falls to the Rookie Draft.
Worked last time.

​

 

[JPetro83]

Lets just keep a close eye on Jackson at the under 18 champs and his season with the bays under 18s. hopefully he get a few senior sanfl games this year.
I have never watched him play.
What are the early thoughts on him? first rounder? top 10? top 20? second rounder?

 

[GreyCrow]

Firstly I dont know the ins and outs of the point system (and any explanation goes over my head) but I was trying to work out how we can still get a FA and keep our 1st pick for Edwards.

So I do like the idea of trading in.

(FA in the sense of needing a sweetener)

 

[Rory Walkerfield]

Assuming Edwards ends up being a mid first rounder, this year is definitely the year I would package up our 2017 and 2018 first rounders to try and get a pick in the 2017 top 10. We then add a top 10 draftee and Edwards.

 

[Pdub]

Lets just keep a close eye on Jackson at the under 18 champs and his season with the bays under 18s. hopefully he get a few senior sanfl games this year.
I have never watched him play.
What are the early thoughts on him? first rounder? top 10? top 20? second rounder?

He's not in the AIS academy so that says he's probably not currently considered in the top 30.

 

[Bacon8]

He's not in the AIS academy so that says he's probably not currently considered in the top 30.

There's at least 5 from the 2016 AIS Academy that went undrafted, so it's not an exact science.

 

[Archie87]

Lets just keep a close eye on Jackson at the under 18 champs and his season with the bays under 18s. hopefully he get a few senior sanfl games this year.
I have never watched him play.
What are the early thoughts on him? first rounder? top 10? top 20? second rounder?

There is an SANFL Futures u17s game from this year that he played on Youtube. The kid had it on a string for the first quarter. His team was getting beaten and they seemed to switch around their midfield after that a fair bit which limited his midfield time but every time he was near the footy, he did something with it and his team appeared to improve too.

He’s got good skills, isn’t slow but not super quick either in that he kind of glides across the ground and he had good vision and hands inside the contest. He’s a taller, left-footed version of his old man IMO. Probably tracking as a late first or early second atm.

 

[DJ75]

How about we get smart and promise to pick him up now, and then quietly encourage him to play only school footy this year. Let his stock drop away a little and get him a bit cheaper.
You know most teams would do exactly this.

 

[Vader]

You can remove Menzel and Hampton from that list, no way either of them are getting flicked two years after spending second rounders on them (more in the case of Menzel).

I don't think we can cross them off at all. They're in their mid-20s, with 50-odd games under their belts. If they can't establish themselves this year, without a damn good reason (i.e. Hampton's injury last year) then the club may well decided to cut their losses. Lots of ifs & maybes there, but I certainly wouldn't rule out the possibility.

 

[Vader]

I think Mackay, Wigg, Menzel and Hampton will be retained, which only leaves Thompson, Otten, CEY, Kelly and Gore as possible departures. (Gore could get a dead man walking contract).

A four to five player turnover isn't terrible. Using my strategy we'd get in two quality first round types, plus one or two later picks, and a rookie upgrade for someone like Greenwood or Beech. If we could trade CEY (maybe) or bring in a free agent, even better.

I think you're probably right about Mackay staying. That said, I think he could retire if he's forced out of the team by the end of the year - with no apparent way back. Maybe.

I think the other three are all facing "make or break" seasons. Establish themselves, and they're assured of a new contract. Finish the season in the SANFL (again) and they put themselves in a precarious position.

 

[Vader]

How about we get smart and promise to pick him up now, and then quietly encourage him to play only school footy this year. Let his stock drop away a little and get him a bit cheaper.
You know most teams would do exactly this.

No, they wouldn't. "Hiding" him like that might mean we pay a lower price at the draft table. It also means that his development as a player is stunted, at a critical time - this is not desirable from a longer term perspective.

 

[Bacon8]

My prediction: We finish 6th, and get pick 13.

We don't trade our 1st rounder, and he's bid on with pick 8. We match.

That's it.

 

[Danger in Texas]

I think you're probably right about Mackay staying. That said, I think he could retire if he's forced out of the team by the end of the year - with no apparent way back. Maybe.

I think the other three are all facing "make or break" seasons. Establish themselves, and they're assured of a new contract. Finish the season in the SANFL (again) and they put themselves in a precarious position.

Wigg's definitely in that situation, for mine. I feel he needs to add another string to his bow to crack into the side. Unsure on Hampton and Menzel, I just can't determine how they'll go next season at this stage.