List Mgmt. The too early Jackson Edwards 2017 Draft Plan

[Danger in Texas]

But on topic - he's a 15-30 prospect at the moment, so hopefully we can just use our second to bid on him.

 

[ad victoriam]

Next year's a good year for KPP and Talls, which means some of the Mids that would normally go between 10 to 20 will be around 20 to 30,
Jackson Edwards will be a 20 plus pick,
Crows will use the first pick on a Tall who will be there best at the time. and pick Jackson with a 2nd or 3rd.

 

[Cleric]

Yeah I think at this point he is a bit over rated here. Things change alot over the year but at this point he is not a first round pick.

 

[Rory Walkerfield]

I don't think we can cross them off at all. They're in their mid-20s, with 50-odd games under their belts. If they can't establish themselves this year, without a damn good reason (i.e. Hampton's injury last year) then the club may well decided to cut their losses. Lots of ifs & maybes there, but I certainly wouldn't rule out the possibility.

Menzel just turned 22.

 

[Bring back Bas]

You'd also have the player that you traded that first pick for so if hypothetically we had picks 15, 33, 51, 69, you'd have a first round level player traded in with 15, and a first round player (edwards) drafter with 33, 51, 69. Not that bad.

I like the idea trading our first to avoid having to use in on Edwards but in the scenario that the OP suggests where Edwards goes at pick 10, by matching with picks 33, 51 and 69 we would go into debt in 2018 and our first pick would be pushed back. We would need upgrade pick 69 to somewhere around 45 to ensure that we have enough points. We could do this by a trade something like: 15 + 69 for 41 + 23 (2018). That way we would have:

2017: Edwards at pick 10 (we use 33, 41 and 51), pick 63, pick 75
2018: pick 15, pick 23, pick 33, pick 51 and pick 69

Depending on list positions available and what the respective drafts look like, we could then package 2018's pick 15 and 23 for a pick around 5-7 in either 2017 or 2018 like Rory Walkerfield suggested.

 

[Vader]

Menzel just turned 22.

This will be his 5th year in the AFL. If a small/mid sized player hasn't established themselves in the best 22 after that long, then there are long odds of them ever doing so. Rucks can easily take 5 years to mature. KPPs sometimes. Smalls & mids.. not so much.

 

[1970crow]

This will be his 5th year in the AFL. If a small/mid sized player hasn't established themselves in the best 22 after that long, then there are long odds of them ever doing so. Rucks can easily take 5 years to mature. KPPs sometimes. Smalls & mids.. not so much.

Difference is that he's already shown that he's got the talent to be a high end player at AFL level. He's not just been existing on the fringe, his lack of game time has either been courtesy of injury, fitness levels or rumoured application issues. The way he went about his SANFL footy, that I saw, suggests to me that application won't be a problem. A full preseason should take care of underlying fitness problems. I'm quite confident that he'll play many games for us over the coming years.

 

[Vader]

Difference is that he's already shown that he's got the talent to be a high end player at AFL level. He's not just been existing on the fringe, his lack of game time has either been courtesy of injury, fitness levels or rumoured application issues. The way he went about his SANFL footy, that I saw, suggests to me that application won't be a problem. A full preseason should take care of underlying fitness problems. I'm quite confident that he'll play many games for us over the coming years.

Maybe. I agree he has the talent. Whether he's able to sort out the other issues is another matter. Either way, it's make or break for him. If he plays many games for us, as you're predicting, then he will have "made it". If he doesn't, then this could well be the year the club breaks its connection with him.

 

[GreyCrow]

How about we get smart and promise to pick him up now, and then quietly encourage him to play only school footy this year. Let his stock drop away a little and get him a bit cheaper.
You know most teams would do exactly this.

Or he develops an injury that only allows him to play a game a month ( to maintain fitness )

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Maybe. I agree he has the talent. Whether he's able to sort out the other issues is another matter. Either way, it's make or break for him. If he plays many games for us, as you're predicting, then he will have "made it". If he doesn't, then this could well be the year the club breaks its connection with him.

IIRC was either Kane Mc or TSR that said Menzel was signed to a 4 year contract ......2017 is year 2, so think this statement is unlikely

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Next year's a good year for KPP and Talls, which means some of the Mids that would normally go between 10 to 20 will be around 20 to 30,
Jackson Edwards will be a 20 plus pick,
Crows will use the first pick on a Tall who will be there best at the time. and pick Jackson with a 2nd or 3rd.

Agree we should pick a tall with 1st round, don't think Jackson lasts to 2nd pick, so at first glance it appears we'll need to get another late first / 2nd round pick

 

[Shaz2012]

Lets say Edwards is going to go top 10 and we finish in the top 6. We will match and use our first rounder on Jackson. Would it make sense to go to a mid-table team that we think will perform badly in 2018 and offer them a straight swap of our 2017 first rounder for their 2018 first rounder?

It doesnt matter that 2017 is a strong draft as we have to spend that 1st pick anyway? We could even use the fact that 2017 is strong to our advantage and trade with a team that is almost certain to do badly in 2018 and secure Jackson + a potential top 5 pick in 2018.

 

[dplggr47]

I think you're probably right about Mackay staying. That said, I think he could retire if he's forced out of the team by the end of the year - with no apparent way back. Maybe.

I think the other three are all facing "make or break" seasons. Establish themselves, and they're assured of a new contract. Finish the season in the SANFL (again) and they put themselves in a precarious position.

Mackay wouldn't retire unless we (or someone else) guaranteed him a coaching role for more money than he would be getting paid on his final year of his contract.

 

[ad victoriam]

Agree we should pick a tall with 1st round, don't think Jackson lasts to 2nd pick, so at first glance it appears we'll need to get another late first / 2nd round pick

Pick 14 = 1161, Bonus = 232.2 need 928.8 points
Pick 15 = 1112, Bonus = 222.5 need 889.5 points
Pick 16 = 1067, Bonus = 213.4 need 853.6 points.
Pick 17 = 1025, Bonus = 205 need 820 points.
Pick 18 = 985, Bonus = 197 need 788 points.
2nd round
Pick 19 =948 bonus = 197 need 751 pionts.
Jackson at this time would need a very big year to go pass the talls and other Vic midfielders in the 2017 draft,
Not worried about us not being able to afford him.
What it does mean is trading will be limited, No big names unless they come as free agents.
And before anyone mentions 2018 picks think again, we have a Hart and Smart plus a couple of Kids from the Acadamy
The next 5-6 year could be very promising for the Crows.

 

[Shaz2012]

Mackay wouldn't retire unless we (or someone else) guaranteed him a coaching role for more money than he would be getting paid on his final year of his contract.

He can be our $400k runner.

 

[skittlebrew]

Is it possible to demote Mackay from the regular list to the rookie list then we can payout his contract without it counting towards the cap?

#wishfulthinking

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

In which case we end up with Edwards, plus picks 80, 81 and 82. I'm not sure that's a good strategy.

It wouldn't end up that bad with 3 late picks, but if it did:
#81 - Haggis always has a late gem.
#82 - mackay who we delisted under contract & redraft him
#83 - pass, because it's the done thing

 

[Jeffcrowe]

I know we just finished 2016 draft, but I thought it would be interesting to make prediction on the Jackson Edwards situation now then see how it plays out for the year.


OK. Now I’m predicting the crows to have a big year,. Top 3 so based on this (and the fact we still have all of our 2017 picks) that would net us Picks 16 / 34 / 52 / 70 / 88 - Pre trade period.,


Working on the basis that Edwards looks like a monster, I’m expecting his stocks to rise throughout this SANFL season and state carnival, I’m picking his value to be somewhere around the 8-12 mark come draft day (well aware this is not currently the case – This is a prediction)


I liked the way GWS traded down to ensure they still got high picks (non-academy) as well as leaving themselves enough room to bid when interested in their local academy kids, I suggest we do the same with Edwards. Look at ways to turn out pick 16 into a pick 3-8 while still moving our other picks down enough to carry enough points to grab Edwards without putting ourselves into deficit.


I can see us trading two of Atkins, Knight, CEY, Mackay at the end of the season depending on who does/doesn’t lock themselves into our best 25-26 players. Personally I would prefer we keep Knight and CEY, but for the exercise let’s work out a trade value for each of the 4. (conservative below)

Atkins – Pick 30-40

Knight – Pick 30-40

CEY – Pick 30-40

Mackay – Pick 60-70


Option A: We trade Mackay (which I think is the general consensus) and one of the other 3 – this would likely get us say pick 65 + 35, changing out picks to 16, 34, 35, 52, 65, 70, 88 - Adding 2 additional picks


Option B: We trade Mackay + pick 52 and one of the other 3 and pick 34 , perhaps we get this would likely get us say pick 45 + 24, changing out picks to 16, 24, 45, 70, 88 – Upgrading 2 current picks



What do think it would take to get that desired pick 3-8? + have some picks with enough points leftover, to secure our desired draft haul ???


I have a couple of ideas,.


Option A: we trade Josh Jenkins for say pick 15-25, I love the bloke in our team but by the start of the 2018 season he will be 29 and still carrying a BIG trade value. In the past couple of years we have added a number of young KPP who could be included into the fold (along with The magic McGovern)


Option B: we shuffle out picks above to try and get say picks 7, 30, 48, 50, 52, 54, 55 – Which I believe would land us whoever we draft at 7, Jackson Edwards and another downgraded pick for Hamish to play with around the 50-60 mark


Thoughts?

We are not trading out our only decent outside player of the last 5 years ( Rat) as he's getting fitter and coming into his prime

We will prob use our 2nd and 3rd round pick for Edwards and move forward with our 4th round

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Assuming Edwards ends up being a mid first rounder, this year is definitely the year I would package up our 2017 and 2018 first rounders to try and get a pick in the 2017 top 10. We then add a top 10 draftee and Edwards.

Don't mind this idea at all , we don't usually get funky like this but we should

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Lets just keep a close eye on Jackson at the under 18 champs and his season with the bays under 18s. hopefully he get a few senior sanfl games this year.
I have never watched him play.
What are the early thoughts on him? first rounder? top 10? top 20? second rounder?

Pick 20-30
Bit slow , it all depends on how his contested ball goes amongst own age group . If he gets it well inside he could go late 1st round . Great skills and composure

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

deaneus - shouldn't you be adding "non-jinxing" to the thread title to be sure...

 

[texas_ranger]

Played against and seen him play, no way is he going in the first or second round

 

[lunacy]

Pick 20-30
Bit slow , it all depends on how his contested ball goes amongst own age group . If he gets it well inside he could go late 1st round . Great skills and composure

Of all the players in the afl, Edwards reminds me most of Dom Tyson. Hopefully he grows a few centimetres and reaches the same height.

 

[Vader]

IIRC was either Kane Mc or TSR that said Menzel was signed to a 4 year contract ......2017 is year 2, so think this statement is unlikely

They gave him 4 years?

That's almost as bad as giving Mackay 4 years.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Of all the players in the afl, Edwards reminds me most of Dom Tyson. Hopefully he grows a few centimetres and reaches the same height.

Yes I agree with this summary