The Trade (TM)

[LeverPuller]

Compensation pick (mid rd 1) plus Compensation pick (end rd 1) plus Matthew Warnock for 1st 17 year old (Jaeger O'Meara)

How's that sound?

 

[Topkent]

Compensation pick (mid rd 1) plus Compensation pick (end rd 1) plus Matthew Warnock for 1st 17 year old (Jaeger O'Meara)

How's that sound?

People understimate what will be needed for it, it may even take all 3 of our first round picks from this years draft, because the o'meara pick is effectively a No 1 draft pick

 

[Gazza_11]

It really depends on how that first round compensation pick works. If it is after out first pick it will be around Pick 14 for GWS in 2012, which will mean we'd have to add to that to beat off other clubs.

If we trade it to GWS and it comes after their first round pick it will probably end up as being Pick 2 for them in 2012. We probably wouldn't have to give anything else away in that case except maybe some hardened bodies.

 

[Demon 86]

It really depends on how that first round compensation pick works. If it is after out first pick it will be around Pick 14 for GWS in 2012, which will mean we'd have to add to that to beat off other clubs.

If we trade it to GWS and it comes after their first round pick it will probably end up as being Pick 2 for them in 2012. We probably wouldn't have to give anything else away in that case except maybe some hardened bodies.

It is definitely based on our ladder position- Emma Quale has confirmed this a few time now.

 

[Mijhaa]

EDIT: Beaten.. So do GWS have to trade Jaeger or could they just keep him?

 

[LeverPuller]

EDIT: Beaten.. So do GWS have to trade Jaeger or could they just keep him?

Have to trade. Four 17-year-olds who must be traded over these two drafts.

The only way they wouldn't is by holding onto all of them this year and trading them all next year - which would mean they lose the #1 pick in the 2013 draft.

 

[tap_my_scott]

Matthew Warnock LOL

 

[LeverPuller]

Matthew Warnock LOL

I know, I know. But...
- He's one of the best man-marking full backs around - something you do need.
- Very rarely beaten one-on-one.
- He wants out.
Yes, his disposal is dire (an understatement) but it's hard to bring in drafted fullbacks and expect them to do anything decent come rd1, and by the looks of it Folau will play at full forward. They need the size that Warnock brings to the table.

 

[melbournemartin]

Sorry but Warnock is beaten one-on-one pretty often, in the AFL at least.

Am I the only one who thinks this is a lot to trade for a kid so young? Many kids are guns at 16/17 but struggle by the time they are 18/19.

I remember Scully was co-captain of Victoria in the under 16s. The other captain barely got a rookie spot. Things change.

 

[Gazza_11]

Scully was an elite talent in 2008 and was an equally elite talent in 2009. So yeah, you can't tell. Like Jaeger he was named in the All-Australain starting 18 even as an underage player.

 

[Topkent]

Sorry but Warnock is beaten one-on-one pretty often, in the AFL at least.

Am I the only one who thinks this is a lot to trade for a kid so young? Many kids are guns at 16/17 but struggle by the time they are 18/19.

I remember Scully was co-captain of Victoria in the under 16s. The other captain barely got a rookie spot. Things change.

Yes and no, at the end of the day its a chance for someone like Collingwood to get the hands on potential no 1 draft pick, what if they put up

Goldsack, Didak, Mcaffer and there first pick.


Also re- the other captain, was he actually mentioned as a draft prospect though, maybe recruiters realised he would only be good at that level

 

[ThePuppetMaster]

I think we might go for a Vic kid.

 

[Gazza_11]

Being a captain at junior level doesn't mean you're any good. I've captained my hockey team for the last three years, just as an example

 

[master bate]

Yes and no, at the end of the day its a chance for someone like Collingwood to get the hands on potential no 1 draft pick, what if they put up

Goldsack, Didak, Mcaffer and there first pick.


Also re- the other captain, was he actually mentioned as a draft prospect though, maybe recruiters realised he would only be good at that level

Jarryd Cachia - rookied by Carlton, was playing decent VFL at the start of the year, not sure what he's doing now. I think he was a pretty high draft prospect when he was 16, but not by the time he was 18.

If O'Meara or any of the others in this mini draft will be guns then I'd offer our two compensation picks we got from Scully, plus any of the sweeteners - Warnock, Bate etc. The 2 compensation picks are worth much more to GWS as they will be keen on saving picks for the future. As seen by todays announcement they are clearly not keen on a premiership any time soon.

 

[Topkent]

Jarryd Cachia - rookied by Carlton, was playing decent VFL at the start of the year, not sure what he's doing now. I think he was a pretty high draft prospect when he was 16, but not by the time he was 18.

If O'Meara or any of the others in this mini draft will be guns then I'd offer our two compensation picks we got from Scully, plus any of the sweeteners - Warnock, Bate etc. The 2 compensation picks are worth much more to GWS as they will be keen on saving picks for the future. As seen by todays announcement they are clearly not keen on a premiership any time soon.

Yeah those compo picks will be gold to them , but i guarantee almost every club will go hard at those picks so we may have to pay overs for them.

 

[BigSexc]

Gazza_11 LOVES O'Meara. Just saying.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

you wont get tier 1 compensation, definitely a no for scully

if you think that a 30 game player is valued the same as a once in a generation player and the standout AFL's standout best midfielder, then your deluding yourself, its already been pointed out by mike sheehan that melbourne wont be getting it and fairly so

most likely a mid first round pick and a second rounder

i think you guys and the western bulldogs are severely underating the compensation system, tier 1 is for "elite", franklin ablett ect, not tom scullys

 

[Topkent]

you wont get tier 1 compensation, definitely a no for scully

if you think that a 30 game player is valued the same as a once in a generation player and the standout AFL's standout best midfielder, then your deluding yourself, its already been pointed out by mike sheehan that melbourne wont be getting it and fairly so

most likely a mid first round pick and a second rounder

i think you guys and the western bulldogs are severely underating the compensation system, tier 1 is for "elite", franklin ablett ect, not tom scullys

You clearly dont understand the system The main factors are the money of the contract, the age and draft position...

So yeah, we will take our Tier 1 compo mate

 

[Wickzki]

Melbourne will get tier 1 compo from Scully, the AFL had almost all but assured of them of that.

However, I'm not entirely sure why GWS would be doing Melbourne a favor by effectively handing over Jags when they could get much more in trade for him. There are other teams that are out there that have other good compo picks. How about Geelong.... Give up their Ablett picks and a player who for simple lack of opportunity would likely play in a lot of midfields such as a Paul Hogan. It's going to take more than a guy you'd delist in Warnock (and the picks). You're looking at a borderline best 22 with potential to grow in that team and he doesn't fit the bill. He's a stopgap measure.

I'm sorry you guys lost Scully. You're not going to be better without him, but you still have a lot of potential. All is not lost and I hope you guys draft well.

 

[Gazza_11]

Gazza_11 LOVES O'Meara. Just saying.

And with good reason! I implore you to watch some footage of the kid play.

 

[Topkent]

Melbourne will get tier 1 compo from Scully, the AFL had almost all but assured of them of that.

However, I'm not entirely sure why GWS would be doing Melbourne a favor by effectively handing over Jags when they could get much more in trade for him. There are other teams that are out there that have other good compo picks. How about Geelong.... Give up their Ablett picks and a player who for simple lack of opportunity would likely play in a lot of midfields such as a Paul Hogan. It's going to take more than a guy you'd delist in Warnock (and the picks). You're looking at a borderline best 22 with potential to grow in that team and he doesn't fit the bill. He's a stopgap measure.

I'm sorry you guys lost Scully. You're not going to be better without him, but you still have a lot of potential. All is not lost and I hope you guys draft well.

I agree with you mate, i think every club will throw heaps at GWS because its a chance for Geelong the pies hawks etc to get their hands on a NO1 pick without dropping down the ladder, we Will have picks 10, 11, 12 in this years draft and pick 10 and 11 are compo picks so i think we are in a pretty good position to get O'Meara

 

[CM Sean]

Since Scully is something like the highest paid player now, they should give us picks 1 and 2 (priority). That's appropriate compo imo!

 

[Tommy D]

you wont get tier 1 compensation, definitely a no for scully

if you think that a 30 game player is valued the same as a once in a generation player and the standout AFL's standout best midfielder, then your deluding yourself, its already been pointed out by mike sheehan that melbourne wont be getting it and fairly so

most likely a mid first round pick and a second rounder

i think you guys and the western bulldogs are severely underating the compensation system, tier 1 is for "elite", franklin ablett ect, not tom scullys

Wow, just wow. You are so naive. You're comparing such compensation to Ablett???

Ablett gave you many years of service, won you premierships, brownlows, you got him for next to nothing under father-son.

Scully on the other hand, was a #1 pick only 2 years ago, has been offered $6m/6years and still have 10 years at least, left in the AFL. In terms of replacing such commodities, Scully should be worth more. He won't be, but we will definitely get the same compo. Anything less, and the AFL is a farce.

People who refuse to believe this, or think it's unfair, clearly do not have it all running properly up there!

 

[Wickzki]

I agree with you mate, i think every club will throw heaps at GWS because its a chance for Geelong the pies hawks etc to get their hands on a NO1 pick without dropping down the ladder, we Will have picks 10, 11, 12 in this years draft and pick 10 and 11 are compo picks so i think we are in a pretty good position to get O'Meara

I wouldn't be cashing in those picks at all this year. This draft is a crap shoot at absolute best. Too much top tier talent has gone. If you're going to keep them I'd hope for not too much improvement next year and cash them in. However, if I were Melbourne and I wanted to trade the first Scully compo pick I'd take a look at the Suns and give up the pick for one of their boys who wants to return home such as Josh Toy. The pick would hold significant weight. Offer up your first tier Scully pick and a marginal best 22 talent (perhaps they'd go for Warnock to have another veteran in their squad while kids develop) for Josh Toy and the GC second round draft pick (pick 28).

If you look at the trade from each team's perspective;

Josh Toy is likely worth a top five pick this year. He would have been a top five pick last year. Hasn't shown that much in the eight games that he played this year but is massively hyped. Is already reportedly suffering from home sickness and is a highly likely candidate for the GCS to return home at contract end.

Although the draft is a crap shoot the Dees would likely be able to draft a player with potential with pick 28. You've had some success picking in the mid rounds lately. From Melbourne's point-of-view you'd be getting Josh Toy (a top five pick) and a potential very reasonable pick on top of the end of first round compo pick for Scully for a pick around pick 10-11 and a player without much future in your team.

Now, from GC's point of view... They're going to suck next year. Perhaps not as bad as what they were this year but bottom three (or four) is most likely. Dependent on whether or not the GWS are able to get the Ablett pick from Geelong (for Jags) the Melbourne draft pick would be worth pick 3 or 4. On top of that they'd be getting a veteran player who they can be a trusted veteran to aide them in the short term. They're giving up a guy who looks to be heading home and wont hold nearly full value for them if they keep him and their second round pick which equates to a mid-draft prospect who wont get much playing time.

I think it's a no brainer from both teams point of views.

It's similar to the OP's suggestion with the major difference being the value that teams giving up for Jag's would be more than what they would offer up for Toy. You also keep the end of first round pick. More likely to get Toy (or another wanting home) than Jags.

 

[Gazza_11]

Would go all out for Jag first and then settle for someone else like Gaff or Toy if we fail.