Prediction 2023 Ladder Prediction Thread

[jaaack]

1. Hawthorn
2. Geelong
3. Fremantle
4. Melbourne
5. Carlton
6. Port Adelaide
7. Gold Coast
8. Collingwood

9. Richmond
10. Western Bulldogs
11. Sydney
12. Brisbane
13. St Kilda
14. Greater Western Sydney
15. Adelaide
16. West Coast
17. North Melbourne
18. Essendon

 

[footyfan1978]

Very rough guess and trade/free agency period will certainly lead me to feel have a better idea.

Not really a ladder predictor more order of more likely to be a good season to bad.

Melbourne
Carlton
Sydney
Bulldogs
Brisbane
Richmond
Collingwood
Gold Coast
Geelong
Fremantle
Hawthorn
Adelaide
Port Adelaide
Essendon
St.Kilda
West Coast
North
GWS

Bulldogs are the ones I feel the least confident in as they could easily bomb if the coach and players just had enough of each other at some point but they certainly still have the talent to be up there.
West Coast also had such a terrible season that it could be deceiving and they bounce back into finals. But on balance of probability I just keep them down the lower end. I think Cats have got the last bit of upper achievement out of the older players so could easily see them start season of well but just not have the hunger or legs next season to be a contender again.
Giants will probably drop further because they will lose more players and look in limbo after totally blowing the first decade of their super list with no flag. Melbourne I expect to bounce back as the team to beat next season. I expect my team top four next season and to be one of the main contenders after another pre-season to tweak the game plan defensively and player group more in tune with what the coaching group asking them to work with. Swans will contend again. Like us, their core group are youthful and in mid 20's so should improve again. Had a bad grand final day but after Cats were on a big winning streak it not surprising the runner up would look bad on the last day of season. Sometimes that just going to happen when the other side is older group and primed to make the most of their time left together. No reason Lions can not be up there again. If Tigers get Taranto and Hopper should have excellent midfield group to be one of the contenders. Collingwood should make finals again as coaching group they have complete faith in to follow to the letter. I do not see why Suns cannot improve again.
North will improve but it tough when you bottom to jump much even with improvement when still so many youngsters and new coach to learn to follow. North will probably win about 6 games and not have as many 8 or more goal losses like they had this season. Essendon could move closer to middle of ladder or stay about the same. Hard to know with no coach at this point. Port and Hawks about the same. Fremantle were underwhelming in their two finals so I have no confidence in them to get much better. They could still make finals or fall out. If Caleb Serong

3

Caleb Serong

Age

23

Ht

180cm

Wt

87kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.0

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

6.0

4star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.6

5star

CL

2.6

4star

D

13.0

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

6.0

3star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.6

4star

CL

2.6

4star

D

13.0

4star

K

7.0

3star

HB

6.0

4star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.6

5star

CL

2.6

5star

and Brayshaw keep improving they could grow on me but man, they were really s**t in the final I saw them so I lack confidence with what they can do.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

Quick Arr0w, Kreuuuzeurns has tipped Collingwood for 16th!

You'd better bookmark it and hold him accountable if he's wrong!

Would love to see your ladder Fadgey.

 

[Howard Littlejohn]

Before free agency, trade period, etc is basically meaningless. Afterwards is also meaningless, but that ruins a bad theory. So, coming off my worst ever year of this, why not. Its only anonymous embarrassment.

1. Collingwood - "what?" I hear everyone say, "shut up voices in my head" i say. They won a lot of close ones, which many suggest means they were lucky. That many suggests they are mentally hard in the crunch. Mind you, picking up McStay as some sort of key player, that's a desperate move of a team struggling to hold mid-table. So, maybe I am the one making the very wrong read.
2. Geelong - this does depend a lot on how many retire, get moved on, and whether it is the right people
3. Melbourne - I really didn't think they were THAT good in 2021, but looking around - who else?
4. Sydney - GF failure aside, one of few teams able to go with Geelong at other times and should be able to replicate

• Above this point "should" play finals

5. Carlton - hate to admit it, because I prefer the league to have a comedy relief team that isn't North, but their best looks pretty damned good; consistency might be the issue with going higher
6. Brisbane - smash bad teams, don't seem to have that answer against the good
7. Richmond - the last hurrah of the era?
8. Fremantle - could really go anywhere from 1st to 15th, so slot in the middle based just on that; if they do slide further probably just a temporary setback




9. Gold Coast - assumes a solid trade period
10. Western Bulldogs - so often I like what I see from the Dogs, yet somehow the end result is underwhelming, don't see that changing
11. St Kilda - some of the tools are there to do much better things

• Other finalists probably come from the group above

12. Essendon - all aboard they hype train to nowheresville
13. Port Adelaide - sick of it, every year I expect them to sort their s**t out and perform to ability, either I over-estimate their ability or they really are serial under-performers
14. Hawthorn
15. Adelaide
16. West Coast - I actually don't think they will be this low, as I suspect covid hurt them more than most think and players never really got match fitness until their season was practically over; I just don't have the confidence to say who they will go ahead of
17. Greater Western Sydney - apparently losing players hand over fist due this year to salary cap issues, unlikely to be able fit new ones in

• Yawning chasm, like putting my mind up against .... um ... I dunno, name someone .... a smart person

18. North Melbourne - Clarkson or not (and my guess is about 80% "not") just winning a game will take a lot of luck again

 

[MickG88]

Interesting that so many expect a down year for Coll and don’t realize “process” and not “luck” was the reason for success in 2022.
Pure luck can’t explain such a long winning streak.

Super soft draw can explain it but.

 

[No SPIN]

True, but generally games decided by small margins do have an element of luck, a bounce of the ball, a bad umpire's call, a few moments here or there. There's also something called regression to the mean, "the idea that rare or extreme events are likely to be followed by more typical ones." - basically, all those close games that could have gone either way that they won the majority of (extreme event), a few moments go the other team's way and they lose a few of them (more typical event) and drop a little.

They could certainly improve again in 2023, but with a likely harder draw coming for them, it wouldn't surprise if they miss the top 4. Remember from outside this year's top 4, teams like Brisbane, Freo, Carlton, Richmond are all going to be looking to improve strongly and contend for top 4, not to mention smokies outside the 8 like Gold Coast, Port Adelaide who history shows some sort of bottom team makes a big jump every year.

Regression to the mean would be for Coll to stay in the Top 8, given we’ve missed finals once in 5 years, with 2021 being the outlier.

 

[Corn Cobbers]

Regression to the mean would be for Coll to stay in the Top 8, given we’ve missed finals once in 5 years, with 2021 being the outlier.

We're not making top 4 ever again with a percentage of 104, plus we'll have a tough draw

I think we can make top 4 again but will have to improve in a lot of areas

 

[No SPIN]

It wasn't all luck, but there was a component of it.

Ironically, the team that had an extraordinary number of close wins during the H&A lost their two finals by 6 points or less.

At the end of the day, you were a 104% team, which is a reflection of your quality.

Our finals performances disproved the low % argument.
Confirming “process and coaching”gave us the winning streak not luck.

In the case of Melb our “process” stopped you from gaining an I50 for almost the entire last 7 minutes of the game, neither Lever or May took a mark inside 50 for the whole game.

 

[No SPIN]

Super soft draw can explain it but.

If that was the case we should have been bundled out of the finals in straight sets.
Geel we’re lucky to beat us in the QF as many neutrals would attest.
We emphatically proved we deserved Top 4.

 

[CarnTheScray]

Collingwood overachieved but they should still be top 8 even with a harder draw.

Carlton will be interesting. Had a relatively easy draw yet missed out on finals by a bees dick. They have the top end talent to push for a top 4 spot but I don’t think they will get there.

Top 8 should be a lock but I genuinely have no idea what will happen, I doubt they could choke a finals appearance as hard as they did this year.

 

[Dangerousfield]

Ah, the old, Geelong about to fall off a cliff! They never do, they just keep reloading with homesick Falcons and others who want to become instant property developers.

Toldyas!

 

[Gazza Greatness]

Interesting that so many expect a down year for Coll and don’t realize “process” and not “luck” was the reason for success in 2022.
Pure luck can’t explain such a long winning streak.

But also the Magpies in their 'final' games, they were epic which stamps your point No SPIN, they simply got better as the season rolled on.

 

[caitsith01]

Not being a smartarse at all... so respectfully saying it does make sense when you consider that Geelong just fielded the oldest team in V/AFL history on the weekend. All era's come to an end eventually.

This post could be from 2009.

 

[MickG88]

If that was the case we should have been bundled out of the finals in straight sets.
Geel we’re lucky to beat us in the QF as many neutrals would attest.
We emphatically proved we deserved Top 4.

I didn't mention that Collingood has played past its potential this year but if Pies played Geelong, Swans, Lions twice them it would of taken a toll on the playing group. Maybe more injuries because you would have had to play a more bruisng style of footy to get to the top 4. Adams went down twice with injuries in the season against a softer draw, what happens when your number one ball winner has to back it up again and again against better opposition. I personally think Buckley was at fault for your poor 2021 and McRae got the best out of Pendles, Sidebottom, Elliot and Adams (all elite players).
I would have Collingwood in the top 8 but not top 4.

 

[Giant Pete]

Carlton
Melbourne
Geelong
Brisbane
Richmond
Collingwood
Sydney
Suns
Western Bulldogs
Port
Freo
Hawks
Giants
West coast
Saints
Bombers
Adelaide
North

Carlton to win the flag.

 

[No SPIN]

I didn't mention that Collingood has played past its potential this year but if Pies played Geelong, Swans, Lions twice them it would of taken a toll on the playing group. Maybe more injuries because you would have had to play a more bruisng style of footy to get to the top 4. Adams went down twice with injuries in the season against a softer draw, what happens when your number one ball winner has to back it up again and again against better opposition. I personally think Buckley was at fault for your poor 2021 and McRae got the best out of Pendles, Sidebottom, Elliot and Adams (all elite players).
I would have Collingwood in the top 8 but not top 4.

Coll we’re ranked 2 for pressure behind Swans. So maybe what’s equally likely is we could have beaten both Geel an Lions, and they may have also suffered injuries that derailed their season.

Now do you see the absurdity of your argument, once it’s credibly flipped around?

 

[Arr0w]

Would love to see your ladder Fadgey.

Fadge sort of started it already, Pies 1st, Tigers 9th, Carlton 18th

Just needs to fill in the gaps

 

[Trav 20]

Our finals performances disproved the low % argument.

You were gallant, but ultimately your straight sets finals exit mirrored your terrible percentage.

 

[No SPIN]

You were gallant, but ultimately your straight sets finals exit mirrored your terrible percentage.

You’re wrong!!
We didn’t go out in straight sets - which is the evidence that makes the percentage argument redundant.

 

[TheUnicorn]

Carlton
Melbourne
Geelong
Brisbane
Richmond
Collingwood
Sydney
Suns
Western Bulldogs
Port
Freo
Hawks
Giants
West coast
Saints
Bombers
Adelaide
North

Carlton to win the flag.

 

[MickG88]

Coll we’re ranked 2 for pressure behind Swans. So maybe what’s equally likely is we could have beaten both Geel an Lions, and they may have also suffered injuries that derailed their season.

Now do you see the absurdity of your argument, once it’s credibly flipped around?

I would say the exact same thing about Geelong and Brisbane, I have been saying that Geelong get a unfair advantage all year because they play stronger teams on the training ground. The difference is that what happens at Geelong won't change but Collingwood will get a harder fixture next year.

 

[No SPIN]

I would say the exact same thing about Geelong and Brisbane, I have been saying that Geelong get a unfair advantage all year because they play stronger teams on the training ground. The difference is that what happens at Geelong won't change but Collingwood will get a harder fixture next year.

This has got nothing to do with your illogical argument, that I responded to.

 

[Gysberts2Bate]

Melbourne
Geelong
Brisbane
Richmond
——
Sydney
Gold Coast
Carlton
Collingwood
——
Fremantle
The Western
Port
Essendon
St Kilda
Adelaide
——
GWS
West Coast
Hawthorn
North

 

[MickG88]

This has got nothing to do with your illogical argument, that I responded to.

It definitely does, if Geelong played their home games at MCGinstea of GMHB stadium then those game that are line ball at home would be mch harder to win, ie Melbourne and the Dogs this season. The fixture has a huge amount o do with how when teams do in the season. If yu had one of the hardest draws where you play Geelong, Brisbane and Swans back to back to back than you might win one of those but lose he other two and come away from them with injuries and a lower confidence from losing two games but if you play say essendon, North and Hawks and win all three then you have a confidence boost that can help you beat a team like Melbourne who had just lost a couple.

 

[Trav 20]

You’re wrong!!
We didn’t go out in straight sets - which is the evidence that makes the percentage argument redundant.

How could I forget the soft win over Freo ?

As I said, close but no cigar.

104% teams don't win prelims.