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Top 4/Top 8 thread
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8th (and 9th) is 4-5 in elimination finals against 5th in the 18 team era, far from a foregone conclusion.
Interesting. Thanks for bringing to my attention.
Chaisa
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Very close battle between 7-13 now:
* West Coast - 40 points (Melbourne [h], Fremantle [n], Brisbane [a])
* GWS - 34 points (Port [n], Geelong [a], Richmond [?], Carlton [a])
* Essendon - 32 points (Sydney [h*], Western Bulldogs [n], Gold Coast [a], Collingwood [n*])
* Richmond - 32 points (Fremantle [a], North Melbourne [h], GWS [?], Hawthorn [n])
* Carlton - 32 points (Gold Coast [h], Port Adelaide [a], GWS [h])
* Fremantle - 32 points (Richmond [h], Brisbane [h], West Coast [n], St Kilda [a])
* St Kilda - 32 points (Sydney [h], Geelong [a], Fremantle [h])
West Coast are still a good shot but that loss hurts, especially like that as it hurts their percentage. May have to beat both Melbourne and Freo now. Still possible and 11 might even be enough but their odds have tanked.
GWS's draw is hard, the draw against North helps but they probably need to win 3 of their next 4. Lose tomorrow and their chances are looking really, really difficult.
Essendon if they can roll one of their next two would have a good shot. But are they running out of legs?
Richmond aren't looking great but they do have an easy draw. They should beat North and Hawthorn minimum and are probably favourites against GWS and maybe Freo. I could plausibly see a collapse, but we'll see.
Carlton's chances still look slim as they likely have to go 3/3, and Port in Adelaide would be very difficult. But they have more of a chance now than they did before yesterday.
Freo's percentage is a problem, but unlike St Kilda's it's not quite "disqualifying". Run home difficult, but home-friendly enough that it's not insurmontable.
St Kilda are purely mathematical at this point. 11 unlikely to be enough given their percentage and they've got Sydney and Geelong as their next two. Yeah.....
* West Coast - 40 points (Melbourne [h], Fremantle [n], Brisbane [a])
* GWS - 34 points (Port [n], Geelong [a], Richmond [?], Carlton [a])
* Essendon - 32 points (Sydney [h*], Western Bulldogs [n], Gold Coast [a], Collingwood [n*])
* Richmond - 32 points (Fremantle [a], North Melbourne [h], GWS [?], Hawthorn [n])
* Carlton - 32 points (Gold Coast [h], Port Adelaide [a], GWS [h])
* Fremantle - 32 points (Richmond [h], Brisbane [h], West Coast [n], St Kilda [a])
* St Kilda - 32 points (Sydney [h], Geelong [a], Fremantle [h])
West Coast are still a good shot but that loss hurts, especially like that as it hurts their percentage. May have to beat both Melbourne and Freo now. Still possible and 11 might even be enough but their odds have tanked.
GWS's draw is hard, the draw against North helps but they probably need to win 3 of their next 4. Lose tomorrow and their chances are looking really, really difficult.
Essendon if they can roll one of their next two would have a good shot. But are they running out of legs?
Richmond aren't looking great but they do have an easy draw. They should beat North and Hawthorn minimum and are probably favourites against GWS and maybe Freo. I could plausibly see a collapse, but we'll see.
Carlton's chances still look slim as they likely have to go 3/3, and Port in Adelaide would be very difficult. But they have more of a chance now than they did before yesterday.
Freo's percentage is a problem, but unlike St Kilda's it's not quite "disqualifying". Run home difficult, but home-friendly enough that it's not insurmontable.
St Kilda are purely mathematical at this point. 11 unlikely to be enough given their percentage and they've got Sydney and Geelong as their next two. Yeah.....
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8th.... probably GWS now
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People have declared Richmond's season over 3 times now but could still easily make it.
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In almost any other season, on form, it would be. But someone has to finish seventh and eighth and right now the teams that are 'fighting' for those spots seem to be losing every single game they play unless there's no alternative (i.e. it's two of those teams playing against each other).
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They'd have to win all 3 games and have other results go their way. That won't happen based on their current form.
On current form 8th might go to a team with 9 wins.
I can see 11 wins being enough, even with a dreadful percentage. (e.g. Freo will probably qualify if they win 2 of their last three.) The Giants may make it with 10 and half wins.
- Apr 24, 2013
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Essendon are who I am tentatively backing. They'll lose to the Dogs, but beat us and Suns, and then finish with the best percentage of the teams contending for the 8.
GWS will have to beat both Richmond and Carlton away from home to finish above Essendon. I don't like their chances of winning both based on form.
Freo and West Coast can both make or miss the 8 from here, but I think the Western derby will decide who makes it. I think one will get in, the other will miss opening up that 8th spot.
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10.5 is the lowest for 8th and that only happened once. Otherwise it has been 11 minimum even in the 16 team era.
Very possible that 10 flat could happen this year. 9 is a massive stretch that could happen, but won't.
Freo had a good chance of knocking off Brisbane and west coast which would cement them. They are getting both teams at the right time.
having said that, I have said that the last few weeks about different teams. They all seem to not want it. Essendon is probably the better one out if those really, but they have had a hard run and can’t quite get it done
having said that, I have said that the last few weeks about different teams. They all seem to not want it. Essendon is probably the better one out if those really, but they have had a hard run and can’t quite get it done
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Its quite an unbelievable finish for those teams vying for the final spot in the 8. I did the ladder predictor and based on current odds Richmond makes it along with Freo (with West Coast dropping out). But on form they will probably lose to North and GWS.
Meaning Freo will take 7th and Essendon could slip in with 10 wins. I fear for what will happen in the 2 elimination finals.
Meaning Freo will take 7th and Essendon could slip in with 10 wins. I fear for what will happen in the 2 elimination finals.
WhyAlwaysMe
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The last round is looking to be one of the best in recent memory. All the current top 4 teams play and there's only 1 game which won't have some kind of top 4/8 implications. And even then that game could decide the wooden spoon.
Over the last 10 yrs or so, by far the most common result to finish 9th and miss finals is 12 wins. 12 and 10.
2021 is such a cripple fight that just to finish 9th in a normal season, GWS, Dons, Tiges, Carlton Saints would need to win 4 of their last 3
2021 is such a cripple fight that just to finish 9th in a normal season, GWS, Dons, Tiges, Carlton Saints would need to win 4 of their last 3
baby pluto
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Eagles a lock to make it, pissing myself at the doubters in here 
Eagles a lock to make it, pissing myself at the doubters in here
I think Eagles will make it, but a lock?? They lost to North at home, and before that got absolutely hammered by the Bulldogs. They have Melbourne, Freo and then Brisbane away. Can you blame people for doubting them? Would it be that surprising if they lost this week? Because they are almost certainly losing to Brisbane in the last week. That is two losses that could see them sitting out. Their percentage is also pretty bad.
baby pluto
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Will comfortably win all three games, Melbourne are s**t scared of the eagles, Freo suck and Brisbane is awful right now.
Are we officially out yet? Or is the season so random that if we won our last 3 we'd somehow make the 8?
Richmond are only 1 game out of the 8, and considering just how inconsistent the teams that are all fighting for that last spot in the 8 are Richmond have pretty much just as good a chance of nabbing it as anyone.
I recon 3 wins gets you in, 2 wins not good enough. The middle six teams all have some tough games and the bottom six teams have started to lift in the past month so no game is a given.
Oh it's not a given and I don't even think we will win 3, it's just such a curious fight for 8th spot I wondered how if we win 3 if we'd somehow be the favourites to make 8th given the uniqueness of this year's ladder
