List Mgmt. Trade Hypotheticals (opposition posters post here)

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

Read an article we are more likely to keep shiel now than lose him

Dunno how much is guessing or how much is fact

I'm gonna say 100 per cent guessing.

 

[dlanod]

Read an article we are more likely to keep shiel now than lose him

Dunno how much is guessing or how much is fact

So they can have a bet each way - "Oh we said he was more likely to stay" or "Oh we said he was going to leave".

 

[Orange Agent]

Read an article we are more likely to keep shiel now than lose him

Dunno how much is guessing or how much is fact

Manager driving the best deal for him which is fair enough, that's their job. His future father in laws comments are probably the truth, neither Dylan or his other half want to leave Sydney, they are very happy and wish to stay.

 

[Pns_blister]

So, the alternative scenarios for me in regards losing Dylan Shiel & looking to replace him most expeditiously/effectively, noting I consider him worth a top 5 draft pick:

1. Outright trade to St Kilda for pick #3 (become #4 in event of Lynch compo, no early first round PPs for Carlton/Suns/Saints) = Bailey Smith or Izak Rankine (pretty equivalent replacement) [That wasn't mentioned in my previous commentary just due to brevity & Saints weren't rumoured at the time.]

2. Trade to Essendon for either 2018 #8 (becomes #9) plus 2019 first round pick (expect to be in region #13 to #18) with GWS second round pick (call it in the region #32 to #36) going back to Essendon [points equate to pick #4]. That would net Jackson Hately or Connor Rozee this year - not quite Dylan Shiel level in my opinion; so next year's helps us with possible academy targets such as Tom Green with a boost of a few hundred points.

3. Trade to Essendon for 2018 #8 plus #31 (original GWS second round pick, traded in last year's Dev Smith trade) [points equate to about pick #4 after compo and PPs are accounted for]. Obviously preferred from Essendon's perspective to not give up next year's first rounder; GWS doesn't really need it this year, but would probably trade into next year's draft to add the extra points for our academy kids.

4. Trade to Carlton for next year's first round pick, probably around #4 or #5 because I think they would rise up the ladder with Shiel. Not as good an option as the previous trades, as we wouldn't replace Shiel until next year. Could be an option for the club if they see Bonar & Setterfield as sufficient to replace Shiel (as much as you can with a less experienced player) in 2019, and depending on how they see the 2019 draft with the academy kids.

5. Least preferred option for mine is a Hawks trade. They'll have pick #15 plus or minus this year, could go backwards between 1 & 3 spots with PP & compo picks; similarly next year. (Thanks for confirming Hawks' 2019 pick position, I couldn't be bothered looking it up in that previous post. Danny's response identified the intent of my original comment.) Two picks around that level equates to pick #4, so nothing from GWS goes back to Hawks for fair trade value. The extra points next year are OK if we see one of Tom Green or Liam Delahunty being pretty early picks; if they slide though, then GWS get two later first round picks. Nothing to be sneezed at, of course, but just not as good as picking up a Hately or Rozee this year, or any early pick next year.

That was all I meant in ranking the various trade scenarios. Not that we get much of a choice of where if Dylan makes a decision, except to consider whether it's worth the trade or not. In a Hawks' trade scenario, if we kept him for 2019 and he left as an unmatched FA with compensation, the pick would be around that same area #11 to#18 we'd hope), so we'd be weighing up one year's worth of Dylan's services for a pick around #15 plus or minus. If we win the premiership this year, it might be a different decision to if we don't. In the latter case, I know which call I'd make on having Dylan in 2019 (presuming the SC is not an issue).

[Edit: Clarified a few comments; upon re-reading a couple of things weren't as clear as I wanted them to be.]

Would GWS trade Shiel and their first pick (currently 13 but could be higher depending on how far they progress) for pick 1 from Carlton? According to the points system it values Shiel around pick 5, which is about right.

 

[sydney_gws]

Would GWS trade Shiel and their first pick (currently 13 but could be higher depending on how far they progress) for pick 1 from Carlton? According to the points system it values Shiel around pick 5, which is about right.

If he wants to go, it would be considered. I would rather keep 13 and get pick 3,4, or 5 for him, get Rankine or best available midfielder. Hopefully our first pick is 18.

 

[IanW]

Would GWS trade Shiel and their first pick (currently 13 but could be higher depending on how far they progress) for pick 1 from Carlton? According to the points system it values Shiel around pick 5, which is about right.

The odds on a pick 5 being better than Dylan Shiel are not high.

 

[Colonial]

Would GWS trade Shiel and their first pick (currently 13 but could be higher depending on how far they progress) for pick 1 from Carlton? According to the points system it values Shiel around pick 5, which is about right.

No. But you would probably get a 2nd rounder back from us with Shiel instead.

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[Pns_blister]

No. But you would probably get a 2nd rounder back from us with Shiel instead.

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I’m not a Carlton supporter, and feel that would be an unfair trade - valuing Shiel far too highly. It would equate to Shiel being worth pick 2, which he is not.

 

[Colonial]

I’m not a Carlton supporter, and feel that would be an unfair trade - valuing Shiel far too highly. It would equate to Shiel being worth pick 2, which he is not.

Up to you.

You asked for an opinion and I gave you one.

Shiel is an AA mid vs a possible maybe top prospect.

More risk with the pick than Shiel.

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[eth-dog]

Okay, I swear I come in peace. If Shiel were to leave (and yes, I understand that you guys think he's staying, and fair enough), what would you be requesting on top of a first round pick? I'd hesitate in offering two because I don't think anybody is worth that sort of value.

 

[Colonial]

Okay, I swear I come in peace. If Shiel were to leave (and yes, I understand that you guys think he's staying, and fair enough), what would you be requesting on top of a first round pick? I'd hesitate in offering two because I don't think anybody is worth that sort of value.

2 1st rounders were the bombers sit. With a possible 2nd rounder coming back from us.

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[eth-dog]

2 1st rounders were the bombers sit. With a possible 2nd rounder coming back from us.

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Hm. I'd offer 2x 1sts and maybe something on top if it were Shiel and Setterfield but again, I don't think any one player is worth that. Good thing that it isn't me and you doing the deal then haha.

 

[Colonial]

Hm. I'd offer 2x 1sts and maybe something on top if it were Shiel and Setterfield but again, I don't think any one player is worth that. Good thing that it isn't me and you doing the deal then haha.

Clubs are professional and will get things done.

I would def want more than 2 1st rounders if it were Shiel and Setters.

Just chatter no one expects any of us to be right.


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[LordLucifer]

What's the story on the Giants having to slash $2mill from their salary cap for next year ??

Anyone know anything more than media speculation ??

 

[fridgeman]

Media speculation but I would say some basis in probability due to the players coming off contract next year and possible back/forward loading of contracts and exaggerated but I have faith that the club will deal with it in the best way and it is always inevitable that list turnover will happen it is just key that the club continues to hold out for the best deal and develop those kids well
It will happen the next several as well as the past 7 years due to the nature of the club build

 

[Determinant]

What's the story on the Giants having to slash $2mill from their salary cap for next year ??

Anyone know anything more than media speculation ??

Smells of bullshit.

Damn, we miss calculated by 2M, must have forgotten to carry that zero over

 

[Colonial]

What's the story on the Giants having to slash $2mill from their salary cap for next year ??

Anyone know anything more than media speculation ??

I'm sure we have to do some dancing with numbers due to the stars we have on board, but 2 mil over? Not like that's a small miscalculation.
Sounds like more vfl media clickbate.

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[LordLucifer]

Smells of bullshit.

Damn, we miss calculated by 2M, must have forgotten to carry that zero over

Maybe you need to factor in it could be a little more than total bullshit.

Gubby Allan did write a number of player contracts (trustworthy ??) and with so many of the players putting their hand out for more, it would be very easy to backend some contracts thinking that they could be 'sorted' later down the track.

It's not out of the question for them to all 'mature' around the same time leaving the Giants with a massive debt.

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

Maybe you need to factor in it could be a little more than total bullshit.

Gubby Allan did write a number of player contracts (trustworthy ??) and with so many of the players putting their hand out for more, it would be very easy to backend some contracts thinking that they could be 'sorted' later down the track.

It's not out of the question for them to all 'mature' around the same time leaving the Giants with a massive debt.

That's not reason, it's wishful thinking.

 

[LordLucifer]

That's not reason, it's wishful thinking.

Let me assure you, the last thing I'd like to see is another club get busted for salary cap breaches.

 

[dlanod]

LOL @ a link to Gubby. Looking at the list of guys who might be on a decent wage...

Players who signed before he left:

• Cameron

Players who signed after he left:

• Davis
• Hopper
• Coniglio
• Greene
• Shiel
• Whitfield
• Scully
• Patton
• Haynes
• Tomlinson
• Kelly
• Shaw
• Lobb

 

[dlanod]

Let me assure you, the last thing I'd like to see is another club get busted for salary cap breaches.

Ok, now you're trolling.

It's incredibly unlikely any team is $2m over the salary cap. However it's possible to be so without cheating the cap like Carlton did. Linking it to the cheating done by your club with its under the table payments is simply BS.

 

[dlanod]

Simple logic dictates the $2m figure is crap.

Why would the club be re-signing marginal guys like Finlayson, Cumming and Kennedy for two years when we're needing to shed so much salary cap? We'd be better off just replacing them with draftees because every cent would be needed to close that gap.

It's probably time to give up pushing this wheelbarrow you seem to be so attached to.

 

[Colonial]

Simple logic dictates the $2m figure is crap.

Why would the club be re-signing marginal guys like Finlayson, Cumming and Kennedy for two years when we're needing to shed so much salary cap? We'd be better off just replacing them with draftees because every cent would be needed to close that gap.

It's probably time to give up pushing this wheelbarrow you seem to be so attached to.

It's all Blues fans have.
Hoping we have salary cap issues so they can beg for the scraps.

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[LordLucifer]

Ok, now you're trolling.

It's incredibly unlikely any team is $2m over the salary cap. However it's possible to be so without cheating the cap like Carlton did. Linking it to the cheating done by your club with its under the table payments is simply BS.

It really shits me when someone disagrees with your comment all they can come out with is "you are trolling". Can we stop that crap and discuss the issue on it's merits ??

As for the $2mill, I'm not the one spruiking the figure, the media are. If there is a serious issue as has been alluded to, you know it will be publically confirmed soon enough.

If the Giants start to shed players in trade week that may another clue.

And for the record, if this is true, I bet you won't have the guts to apologise either.