Trade Talk (not draft talk)

[Football Pope]

Clubs were rorting the system. Players on three year contracts were paid majority of their contract in the last year to take advantage of the Veteran's rule. From memory it was changed when Carlton had Koutafides paid 2.5mil in the years when he qualified for the veteran's list. Not only they could not afford it but they had to re negotiate as well and request Kouta take a pay cut. It was also brought in to save the clubs from themselves. So now its the average of the total contractual arrangement. Thus 2,1milion contract over three years is worth half of 700k on the veterans list. Thus only 350k is the Veterans amount that could be claimed.

I don't recall that at all...(must have slept through that in a comatose state)....Do you know where I could find that?...There was reports this year Melbourne were front loading their contracts...Melbourne Revival and I was pretty sure JB had his contract back ended...

 

[acuguy]

Let's get this straight, Brennan is not worth 2m over 4 seasons, i think 1.4million over 4 is his market value. We shouldn't pay over the odds for anyone in this period, will only lead to losing young players over the next couple of years.

We have to accept that the money GC and GWS are offering is too good to refuse and too much to match. The AFL must do this for those teams to be competitive. We need to accept it and move on. If it leaves a gap in our cap then we need to aggressively go for good players on other lists in our price range

 

[Hollow Knight]

I don't recall that at all...(must have slept through that in a comatose state)....Do you know where I could find that?...There was reports this year Melbourne were front loading their contracts...Melbourne Revival and I was pretty sure JB had his contract back ended...

Can't find a link, but irel is spot on the money. I remember that it was revealed around the same time that Brown resigned.

Melbourne are frontloading contracts because they have so many kids, but paying most of their contracts in advance, they will have plenty of cap space down the line.

 

[Bobby Beecroft]

Melbourne are frontloading contracts because they have so many kids, but paying most of their contracts in advance, they will have plenty of cap space down the line.

No when they start winning even more & other clubs start sniffing around.

Front End - Back End when a contract is completed & the opposition starts offerring more than the 'home' club, there still lies a tough decision to be made by the player.

 

[POBT]

Let's get this straight, Brennan is not worth 2m over 4 seasons, i think 1.4million over 4 is his market value.

Just to be clear, the market value is going to be whatever the market is willing to pay. That the Suns have grossly distorted the market doesn't change the fact that his market value is whatever he gets offered. Doesn't mean that he's not significantly overpriced though.

On your figures, I wouldn't be surprised if $350K a year isn't far off what Brennan is currently on. That number rings a bell from when we last went through protracted negotiations with Brennan. For his upside alone, plenty of clubs would be willing to offer up to $450K a year, I reckon. I mean, Sydney offered Mumford a significant contract on what they thought he could turn into, rather than what he had delivered in his career to that point.

 

[irel]

I don't recall that at all...(must have slept through that in a comatose state)....Do you know where I could find that?...There was reports this year Melbourne were front loading their contracts...Melbourne Revival and I was pretty sure JB had his contract back ended...

Not sure where you find that. Unfortunately I am speaking through a senility setting haze. Strictly what the memory has retained. As far as front loading contracts; when you've been tanking for three years and loading up on guns it makes sense to front load because you need to spend minimum of 92% of your salary cap anyway. Therefore to ensure greater access to salary funds to keep your top drafts as they are developing and the team becomes more successful
Melbourne has front loaded their contracts. If they do become another Geelong they will be able to stay on top longer because their contracts are front loaded now. Strategically it is an excellent move. Wish we had a CEO like Cameron Schwab.

 

[Hollow Knight]

Hopefully it's just a haggling process and something around 1.8 -2 million over 4 years is reached.

 

[Balony_pony16]

Just to be clear, the market value is going to be whatever the market is willing to pay. That the Suns have grossly distorted the market doesn't change the fact that his market value is whatever he gets offered. Doesn't mean that he's not significantly overpriced though.

Well lets be more clear...there are currently 2 markets in the AFL... The GC & GWS and the rest. The players market value for each different side is miles apart!

 

[Hollow Knight]

Well lets be more clear...there are currently 2 markets in the AFL... The GC & GWS and the rest. The players market value for each different side is miles apart!

Not really, there is one market, just varying capacities to pay.

I can't afford a BMW, but it doesn't mean it is priced above its market value.

 

[POBT]

Well lets be more clear...there are currently 2 markets in the AFL... The GC & GWS and the rest. The players market value for each different side is miles apart!

I'm not going to get into a fight about it but that's not true. There is one market. It is like when Nathan Tinkler dropped a fortune in the thoroughbred market a few years ago. Virtually no-one else could get near the market. He had a higher capacity to pay and so he did - paying more for horses than what the rest of the market thought was reasonable. End result - market value of yearlings went up. The big winners of course were the breeders. Same now - the only difference here is that the buying power of the other clubs has been artificially stymied. One market - but with one participant having more power than the others.

 

[Hollow Knight]

We need a "Microeconomics talk (not Macro talk)" thread.

 

[irel]

We need a "Microeconomics talk (not Macro talk)" thread.

We need an "Exodus Watch 2010" thread

 

[POBT]

We need a "Microeconomics talk (not Macro talk)" thread.

No way - you'd kill me. I am relying on 2nd year economics from 1996!

 

[Football Pope]

Not sure where you find that. Unfortunately I am speaking through a senility setting haze. Strictly what the memory has retained. As far as front loading contracts; when you've been tanking for three years and loading up on guns it makes sense to front load because you need to spend minimum of 92% of your salary cap anyway. Therefore to ensure greater access to salary funds to keep your top drafts as they are developing and the team becomes more successful
Melbourne has front loaded their contracts. If they do become another Geelong they will be able to stay on top longer because their contracts are front loaded now. Strategically it is an excellent move. Wish we had a CEO like Cameron Schwab.

No probs Irel...I'll keep looking ..I obviously haven't paid attention to it at the time for some reason or another..

Agree about Cameron Schwab although to be fair... he was raised in the football world...spending his school holidays at Punt Rd...learning from his old man....cut his teeth as the General Managers ...on the job training..........It would be rare to find one of a similar ilk.....

 

[acuguy]

Just to be clear, the market value is going to be whatever the market is willing to pay. That the Suns have grossly distorted the market doesn't change the fact that his market value is whatever he gets offered. Doesn't mean that he's not significantly overpriced though.

On your figures, I wouldn't be surprised if $350K a year isn't far off what Brennan is currently on. That number rings a bell from when we last went through protracted negotiations with Brennan. For his upside alone, plenty of clubs would be willing to offer up to $450K a year, I reckon. I mean, Sydney offered Mumford a significant contract on what they thought he could turn into, rather than what he had delivered in his career to that point.

POBT, have you been moonlighting as a real estate agent. The Brisbane market has been flooded with interstate and baby boom investors who drove the market prices up in all areas of Brisbane. I mean such suburbs as New Farm, Bulimba, Clayfield, Hamilton, etc will always hold their value because they are what they are- A grade suburbs. Other areas such as Holland Park, Cannon Hill, Stafford and the like have peaked and are stable in the market, their value will not rise in the next 3 years, as much as they would like to be an A grade suburb the never will be. Brennan is not A grade, he is a solid B grade with too many deficiencies and inconsistencies in his game to ever be A grade. 350-400k is his value, the market is inflated, you play that game and you end up crashing.

 

[Hollow Knight]

The comparison to the real estate market is utterly nonsensical in this case.

Why?

Salary caps.

Comparing a free market with a centrally planned one is futile.

If the Queensland government started imposing price controls on properties similar to Rent Controlled apartments in New York, then you'd have a somewhat (although nowhere near perfect) basis for comparison.

All players are "undervalued" in the AFL system... it's not hard to imagine what would happen to wages of quality players if the AFL suddenly abolished the cap.

POBT is right... there is really only one "market" within the AFL system. Capacity to pay is the key driver in this system. If we had the same salary cap as Gold Coast, we'd probably be offering Brennan something similar.

Unfortunately we don't, and wee have to weight up the costs/benefits of keeping/losing him and the repercussions on the rest of the list. Therefore it is our capacity to pay that is going to probably decide what we end up offering him, not his market value.

 

[irel]

No probs Irel...I'll keep looking ..I obviously haven't paid attention to it at the time for some reason or another..

Agree about Cameron Schwab although to be fair... he was raised in the football world...spending his school holidays at Punt Rd...learning from his old man....cut his teeth as the General Managers ...on the job training..........It would be rare to find one of a similar ilk.....

.
He was available around the time Bowers was appointed. Unfortunately he would not have had a look in as he obviously wasn't a mate with anyone at board level

 

[acuguy]

The comparison to the real estate market is utterly nonsensical in this case.

Why?

Salary caps.

Mate i am not comparing markets, just was using suburbs as an analogy for players.

 

[acuguy]

Basically TBD i am saying, you can dress the Redlands up as much as you want, you know put a sizzler in, give em town water, sewerage and the like but in the end it is still the Redlands regardless of how much you want to pay to live there.

 

[LionMen]

I read an article about Trent Hentschel's future at Adelaide being uncertain due to not playing much in 3 years but i remember at his best was very good and would probably be a better FF type then Brendan Fevola.
Would probably go for a late 3rd or early 4th rd pick.
thoughts?

 

[acuguy]

We have 15 clubs buying their potato peelers from KMart and 1 buying his potato peelers from David Jones.

 

[Hollow Knight]

Mate i am not comparing markets, just was using suburbs as an analogy for players.

You were talking about inflated prices. The comparison doesn't hold in a professional sporting league that uses a socialist model. Unless you think the Salary Cup is currently set at an absolutely perfect benchmark where every player gets paid what they are worth, not a cent more or less.

Basically TBD i am saying, you can dress the Redlands up as much as you want, you know put a sizzler in, give em town water, sewerage and the like but in the end it is still the Redlands regardless of how much you want to pay to live their.

And you can put an illiterate person in Coorparoo and they are still illiterate.

Trying to get a rise out of me by sledging the Redlands is probably a waste of your time btw. Just went for a nice walk along Waterloo Bay.

Regardless, I don't seek to posit myself as a superior being by something as trite as living locality, I've lived in parts of the world that would make Coorparoo look like a shanty town. I wouldn't expect anyone to care. It really isn't an issue.

 

[acuguy]

Suburb envy is not an attractive thing! Btw, i don't live Coorparoo and never will. As a doyen of local footy knowledge you would realise that the Coorparoo Roos and the Morningside Panthers were arch enemies. As a staunch Morningside man i could never bring myself to live in Coorparoo (plus do you think teachers can afford to live in suburbs like Coorparoo). The Redlands is more of a haven for teachers. Oh and poms!

 

[Hollow Knight]

It's hard to get a feel for Rischa's trade value.

He has proven himself a consistently good inside mid this year and will win the Best and Fairest.

Does that make him a mid to late first round?

Would Rischa + our second pick for Essendon's first be a fair deal or are we getting ripped off there?

 

[dlanod]

I read an article about Trent Hentschel's future at Adelaide being uncertain due to not playing much in 3 years but i remember at his best was very good and would probably be a better FF type then Brendan Fevola.
Would probably go for a late 3rd or early 4th rd pick.
thoughts?

No. Gets on the field rarer than X, and we've got plenty of key position players already.