Trades and draft selections

[Mutt]

I think there is a tendency for clubs to overpay for players and generally undervalue draft picks. Clubs often value a player from another club substantially higher than they rate equivalent players in their own club. I fear we are about to make that mistake with the rumored Everitt/Walker trade. I rate Everitt more highly than Walker and so I'd prefer us to try to gain a top 30 draft pick, rather than recycle a hack for Everitt. I have more confidence we will benefit in the longer term from the player drafted with a top 30 pick than we will from Walker, Rosa, Sherman etc.

Many clubs have unrealistic views about how close they are to a Premiership. We are very guilty of that. We do not have the player list, nor the game plan to defeat the very best sides with any regularity. We need to regenerate our list to ensure we can compete with the very best and the best way to do this is via the draft and with an increased emphasis on the development of talent within the club. I'm not saying we cannot win the flag in the next 2 years, rather that it is unlikely. We would need a Bradbury event. Let's regenerate (not rebuild) whilst remaining in it with an outside shot at the flag. We can do that by trading out the players who want to leave, as well as the players who are not good enough in their roles to take us to a flag, and in return acquire draft picks to select good young talent or to trade for a proven, gun player who is perfect for a need we must fulfill.

None of the players mentioned that we might wish to trade for excite me one bit. None are guns and none perfectly fit a desperate need, so hoard our picks; nurture our young talent and let other clubs over-pay us if they want to trade.

 

[RangaInTeal]

You guys should see the SANFL grandfinal this weekend, Keep an eye out for Norwoods #21.

 

[chef]

You guys should see the SANFL grandfinal this weekend, Keep an eye out for Norwoods #21.

May I asked why?

 

[stefoid]

Is that the Paul Poupola (spell) guy you were talking about?

In regards to our trades, we need to get guys who can dispose under pressure into the side - both Sherman and particularly Walker have ??? over their disposal, so Im not real keen there. Outside players with questionable disposal is just a really bad mix.

 

[The Boy From Brasil]

I think there is a tendency for clubs to overpay for players and generally undervalue draft picks. Clubs often value a player from another club substantially higher than they rate equivalent players in their own club. I fear we are about to make that mistake with the rumored Everitt/Walker trade. I rate Everitt more highly than Walker and so I'd prefer us to try to gain a top 30 draft pick, rather than recycle a hack for Everitt. I have more confidence we will benefit in the longer term from the player drafted with a top 30 pick than we will from Walker, Rosa, Sherman etc.

Many clubs have unrealistic views about how close they are to a Premiership. We are very guilty of that. We do not have the player list, nor the game plan to defeat the very best sides with any regularity. We need to regenerate our list to ensure we can compete with the very best and the best way to do this is via the draft and with an increased emphasis on the development of talent within the club. I'm not saying we cannot win the flag in the next 2 years, rather that it is unlikely. We would need a Bradbury event. Let's regenerate (not rebuild) whilst remaining in it with an outside shot at the flag. We can do that by trading out the players who want to leave, as well as the players who are not good enough in their roles to take us to a flag, and in return acquire draft picks to select good young talent or to trade for a proven, gun player who is perfect for a need we must fulfill.

None of the players mentioned that we might wish to trade for excite me one bit. None are guns and none perfectly fit a desperate need, so hoard our picks; nurture our young talent and let other clubs over-pay us if they want to trade.

Fantastic post Longwait. And I am amazed that anyone thought exactly the same as me. But you articulated it a lot better than I did in my posts

I think Bulldogs Bite made a good point before when he said that in Eades time that we havn't butchered our trading/drafting process. We have never overpaid for trades. So that gives me some confidence that the club knows what they are doing.

One thing though I was thinking of before was that it is Eades last year in his contract, so I hope he isn't tempted to top up rather than develop. But I have faith in the structure that we implemented a few years ago where Fantasia is the head of football operations and you would think that there are proper processes in place.

Would be interesting to see where the board thinks our premiership window is or what the football departments philosophy on how we can best win a premiership is.

 

[Mutt]

Fantastic post Longwait. And I am amazed that anyone thought exactly the same as me. But you articulated it a lot better than I did in my posts

I think Bulldogs Bite made a good point before when he said that in Eades time that we havn't butchered our trading/drafting process. We have never overpaid for trades. So that gives me some confidence that the club knows what they are doing.

One thing though I was thinking of before was that it is Eades last year in his contract, so I hope he isn't tempted to top up rather than develop. But I have faith in the structure that we implemented a few years ago where Fantasia is the head of football operations and you would think that there are proper processes in place.

Would be interesting to see where the board thinks our premiership window is or what the football departments philosophy on how we can best win a premiership is.

You and I think very alike on most things footy related TBFB. On the moving to Brasil thing - not so much alike!

I also hope that Rocket doesn't do a Vossy!

 

[The_Bulldogs_Bite]

I think there is a tendency for clubs to overpay for players and generally undervalue draft picks. Clubs often value a player from another club substantially higher than they rate equivalent players in their own club. I fear we are about to make that mistake with the rumored Everitt/Walker trade. I rate Everitt more highly than Walker and so I'd prefer us to try to gain a top 30 draft pick, rather than recycle a hack for Everitt. I have more confidence we will benefit in the longer term from the player drafted with a top 30 pick than we will from Walker, Rosa, Sherman etc.

That might be so, but supporters dramatically overrate drafting. The age old "it's better to be young than good" call rings true, because supporters fall into the trap of believing that if we hold onto all of our picks and draft - we'll develop our way to a flag. Whilst drafting is an extremely critical part of list management, it's not the only key ingredient to pushing for a flag.

St. Kilda have traded in Gardiner, Ray, Dawson, Peake, Schneider and Dempster off the top of my head. None are guns, none have elite disposal etc. but they all contribute to a much bigger picture.

Hawks traded in Dew, Croad, Guerra, Gilham.

Indiviudally these guys aren't amazing on paper, but they moulded together to master a plan. We currently lack players with dare and pace, who are willing to take the game on and create. Walker and Sherman have this in spades, despite their noted faults.

Unless you have a kid you're absolutely desperate for that will be available in the 25-35 pick bracket, we'd be silly not to try and nab one of these players.

We can do that by trading out the players who want to leave, as well as the players who are not good enough in their roles to take us to a flag, and in return acquire draft picks to select good young talent or to trade for a proven, gun player who is perfect for a need we must fulfill.

You can't trade for a proven, gun player without compromising your future (IE. High draft picks/quality players). You'll over pay every time.

The key to trading is bringing in talent that has under performed for various reasons. Getting them at their lowest value (IE. After an average season) is what you want. Everybody knows what Sherman/Walker are capable of. Ditto Hill, and to a lesser extent Everitt.

As I said in an earlier post, Eade has been very good at doing the above. He doesn't get sucked into paying over a player's worth, despite what our needs were at the time (See Hall in the '08 trade period).

 

[Kramer1]

I think there is a tendency for clubs to overpay for players and generally undervalue draft picks. Clubs often value a player from another club substantially higher than they rate equivalent players in their own club. I fear we are about to make that mistake with the rumored Everitt/Walker trade. I rate Everitt more highly than Walker and so I'd prefer us to try to gain a top 30 draft pick, rather than recycle a hack for Everitt. I have more confidence we will benefit in the longer term from the player drafted with a top 30 pick than we will from Walker, Rosa, Sherman etc.

Many clubs have unrealistic views about how close they are to a Premiership. We are very guilty of that. We do not have the player list, nor the game plan to defeat the very best sides with any regularity. We need to regenerate our list to ensure we can compete with the very best and the best way to do this is via the draft and with an increased emphasis on the development of talent within the club. I'm not saying we cannot win the flag in the next 2 years, rather that it is unlikely. We would need a Bradbury event. Let's regenerate (not rebuild) whilst remaining in it with an outside shot at the flag. We can do that by trading out the players who want to leave, as well as the players who are not good enough in their roles to take us to a flag, and in return acquire draft picks to select good young talent or to trade for a proven, gun player who is perfect for a need we must fulfill.

None of the players mentioned that we might wish to trade for excite me one bit. None are guns and none perfectly fit a desperate need, so hoard our picks; nurture our young talent and let other clubs over-pay us if they want to trade.

Interesting view.

I tend to go the other way and think draft picks are more over rated if anything because they are inflated by that nasty P word. If you look at any given draft pick beyond the top ten (and often within the top ten) the strike is generally pretty low, their is some surety in bringing in someone with runs on the board who is able to fill a certain role.

We all want to fill our list with superstars but the reality is any time you can pluck a guy who is going to give 100-150 games of reasonable standard football you have likely drafted well.

And whilst I'm not strongly inclined either way on a potential Walker/Everitt trade, he is hardy a hack. Whilst often on the comback trail from injury AW has strung together 100 games of reasonable standard football, with 10-12 great games in amongst them. Only on BF does this equate to hack status. Everitt might well surpass him, but in 40 odd games he hasn't played to the level AW has shown himself to be capable of (albeit too rarely).

Haven't visited your board much before. Seems a good standard of footy talk

 

[Mutt]

That might be so, but supporters dramatically overrate drafting. The age old "it's better to be young than good" call rings true, because supporters fall into the trap of believing that if we hold onto all of our picks and draft - we'll develop our way to a flag. Whilst drafting is an extremely critical part of list management, it's not the only key ingredient to pushing for a flag.

St. Kilda have traded in Gardiner, Ray, Dawson, Peake, Schneider and Dempster off the top of my head. None are guns, none have elite disposal etc. but they all contribute to a much bigger picture.

Hawks traded in Dew, Croad, Guerra, Gilham.

Indiviudally these guys aren't amazing on paper, but they moulded together to master a plan. We currently lack players with dare and pace, who are willing to take the game on and create. Walker and Sherman have this in spades, despite their noted faults.

Unless you have a kid you're absolutely desperate for that will be available in the 25-35 pick bracket, we'd be silly not to try and nab one of these players.



You can't trade for a proven, gun player without compromising your future (IE. High draft picks/quality players). You'll over pay every time.

The key to trading is bringing in talent that has under performed for various reasons. Getting them at their lowest value (IE. After an average season) is what you want. Everybody knows what Sherman/Walker are capable of. Ditto Hill, and to a lesser extent Everitt.

As I said in an earlier post, Eade has been very good at doing the above. He doesn't get sucked into paying over a player's worth, despite what our needs were at the time (See Hall in the '08 trade period).

I'd agree that drafting is not the only key ingredient to developing a good list. A club needs to select well and get the best picks it can each draft; develop its' youth and treat the youngsters as the precious assets they are; and draft for needs very sparingly and astutely. I think we as a club lately have been good at using the draft well; poor at nurturing talent and outstanding at trading for needs/attracting guns (with Hall and Akrimonious).

As far as nabbing the players on offer goes: we'll have to agree to disagree. I don't rate the players mentioned anywhere near as highly as the players we've drafted over the past couple of years with picks around 30 and under (Roughead and Jones for example.)

Finally, we don't have to mortgage our future or over-pay drastically to get a gun player. You contradict yourself here because you later say that Eade has been great at not over-paying. We didn't pay a lot for Hall and that prick from Brisbane, rather, we waited too long to grab Hall (if anything we should have paid what Sydney wanted a year earlier and we might have had a flag by now.)

 

[Mutt]

Interesting view.

I tend to go the other way and think draft picks are more over rated if anything because they are inflated by that nasty P word. If you look at any given draft pick beyond the top ten (and often within the top ten) the strike is generally pretty low, their is some surety in bringing in someone with runs on the board who is able to fill a certain role.

We all want to fill our list with superstars but the reality is any time you can pluck a guy who is going to give 100-150 games of reasonable standard football you have likely drafted well.

And whilst I'm not strongly inclined either way on a potential Walker/Everitt trade, he is hardy a hack. Whilst often on the comback trail from injury AW has strung together 100 games of reasonable standard football, with 10-12 great games in amongst them. Only on BF does this equate to hack status. Everitt might well surpass him, but in 40 odd games he hasn't played to the level AW has shown himself to be capable of (albeit too rarely).

Haven't visited your board much before. Seems a good standard of footy talk

You are quite right Kramer1, Walker is not a hack and it was disrespectful of me to describe him that way.

In my opinion Walker is an average or perhaps handy AFL footballer. Walker is not an A-grader and never will be. He is at best a bottom range B-grader who can't regularly get a game in a team that is nowhere near as good as the Western Bulldogs. That puts him on about a par with Everitt in my opinion.

 

[maddog37]

I wonder if the two father son picks will have an impact on our overall draft/trading this year.

It would appear there is very little risk in wallis and libba and they have already been groomed by the club for 18 months. They both should have an immediate impact and really look to be "no-brainers"

Will this allow us to be a little more creative with our trading?

 

[The_Bulldogs_Bite]

As far as nabbing the players on offer goes: we'll have to agree to disagree. I don't rate the players mentioned anywhere near as highly as the players we've drafted over the past couple of years with picks around 30 and under (Roughead and Jones for example.)

To be fair though, they were part of the super draft.

Last year's draft, this one, and the next couple are all tampered due to GC/GWS arriving. The talent around the 30 mark won't be as obvious/great as it was in the Roughy/Jones draft. That's not to say quality players won't be picked up, but it'll be a harder task which is probably why this trade period is predicted to be a little more active than recent years.

Finally, we don't have to mortgage our future or over-pay drastically to get a gun player. You contradict yourself here because you later say that eade has been great at not over-paying. We didn't pay a lot for Hall and that prick from Brisbane, rather, we waited too long to grab Hall (if anything we should have paid what Sydney wanted a year earlier and we might have had a flag by now.)

Not sure where I've contradicted myself on this one, and you do have to over-pay (generally speaking) to secure a legitmate gun player. The reason we got Hall/Aker on the cheap was because they were out of favour for different reasons. That's exactly when you want to trade for quality players - when for whatever circumstance, they are seeking a change.

Sydney wanted our first round draft pick for Barry Hall. That would have been over paying through the nose!

 

[Mutt]

To be fair though, they were part of the super draft.

Last year's draft, this one, and the next couple are all tampered due to GC/GWS arriving. The talent around the 30 mark won't be as obvious/great as it was in the Roughy/Jones draft. That's not to say quality players won't be picked up, but it'll be a harder task which is probably why this trade period is predicted to be a little more active than recent years.



Not sure where I've contradicted myself on this one, and you do have to over-pay (generally speaking) to secure a legitmate gun player. The reason we got Hall/Aker on the cheap was because they were out of favour for different reasons. That's exactly when you want to trade for quality players - when for whatever circumstance, they are seeking a change.

Sydney wanted our first round draft pick for Barry Hall. That would have been over paying through the nose!

If we had Hall in 2009 we could well have won a flag. We will never know I guess, but Hall is an "All Australian/Coleman Medal/genuine A-grader/Premiership Captain" standard player and is worth a first rounder for 4 years service (which we would probably have got from him if we had done the deal.)

 

[chef]

If we had Hall in 2009 we could well have won a flag. We will never know I guess, but Hall is an "All Australian/Coleman Medal/genuine A-grader/Premiership Captain" standard player and is worth a first rounder for 4 years service (which we would probably have got from him if we had done the deal.)

We didn't have a first rounder anyway due to Cordy(we had already committed our pick before trade week started), so we would have had to trade a top line player to Sydney for Hall.

 

[Borgsta]

Agree - the Saints have made an artform of getting guys who can just play their role in the team. McQualter/Dempster/Eddy don't really strike many people as premiership players either but they were a whisker away from it a few days ago.

Correction. The Saints have copied the Swans artform.

 

[Borgsta]

If we had Hall in 2009 we could well have won a flag. We will never know I guess, but Hall is an "All Australian/Coleman Medal/genuine A-grader/Premiership Captain" standard player and is worth a first rounder for 4 years service (which we would probably have got from him if we had done the deal.)

was also impossible due to salary cap.

 

[BWFC]

You are quite right Kramer1, Walker is not a hack and it was disrespectful of me to describe him that way.

In my opinion Walker is an average or perhaps handy AFL footballer. Walker is not an A-grader and never will be. He is at best a bottom range B-grader who can't regularly get a game in a team that is nowhere near as good as the Western Bulldogs. That puts him on about a par with Everitt in my opinion.

Its all just a matter of opinions. I think Walker is a much better player than Everitt. I'd take a straight swap any day of the week. Walker has been held back by injuries, and don't underrate how hard it is to get a game at Carlton. They have a pretty impressive group of midfielders.

While Everitt on the other hand can't get a game in a team with injuries. Runs on the board count and Walker has more than Everitt.

 

[lonnie]

Agree with majority of you post Comrade.
Minson would have currency in regards to a trade the key is can we get a mature aged ruckman from VFL/SANFL/WAFL to provide back up to Hudson and Roughead. If the answer is yes we should look to trade Minson.

Personally I'd look to trade Boyd rather than Cross, and rather Dujerrkera wouldn't we be better targeting Shannon Byrnes?

boyd is our next captain u dill trade gia who refuses to put his body on the line

 

[stefoid]

Yeah, but maybe Everitt should have been getting a game. All things being equal, he probably would have given us more than an out of form Hahn or an injured Johno.

I havent paid much attention to Walker, but I think Everitts disposal is better, and of course he is taller and 3 years younger. At 100 games experience already, I cant see Walker getting any better, but I reckon Everitt will be pretty good by the time he has played 100 games.

 

[Mutt]

was also impossible due to salary cap.

If we'd traded a decent player to get the pick needed we could well have had the cap space. Bottom line is we didn't want to do the trade enough to pay the price required and it just might have cost us dearly.

 

[scooter600x]

boyd is our next captain u dill trade gia who refuses to put his body on the line

Equally Gia could be our next captain

 

[fred cook]

boyd is our next captain u dill trade gia who refuses to put his body on the line

Yep Boyd is such a game breaker and great foot and hand skills NOT


It amazes me a player is soft and that is the end of him,but one cant kick to a target and he is going to be a captain,please.

 

[Rookie]

I'm warming up to the Andrew Walker idea. But not for Everitt. If we could get a pick for Hill and ontrade that for Walker, maybe throw in Stack or a third rounder, it could be a good trade and we can keep our Harbrow compensation pick. Sherman or Walker - we should get one or the other. I think Sherman offers the best upside with his sheer pace, but Walker offers better value at the trade table - we'd be overpaying for Sherman's potential and underpaying for Walker's injuries and his inconsistency.
It could be a null choice because Walker is rumored to be favoring Adelaide, and we are but one of many suitors for Sherman.
Furthermore I wouldn't pay either a) our Harbrow pick or b) Everitt for Walker, so can't see a trade getting done.
Nahas? Rosa?

 

[boydsno1]

I would think someone like gia who can kick goals, and set up goals would be more valuable then boyd. Also remember when gia went in the middle to cover for him? Was simply brilliant.

 

[yebiga]

Please remember Boyd played with a plate in his hand for most of the season. His disposal is not normally choppy is it was after his injury.

As for Guido, you can't have your captain go missing for weeks at a time. Whatever Boyd's faults he gives his all week in, week out.