Mega Thread VICBias - Genuine Discussion Part 3

[PenfoldsFan]

Solid deflection.

 

[PenfoldsFan]

It might be just an issue as pitiful as AFL umpiring, but you are a radicalised extremist. You've gone through the same process to end up in lala land just an even more pitiful belief. Why do you spend so much time trying to recruit people to your extremist AFL view?

In terms dedicating time to it - radicalised extremism impacts us all. It's a massive global issue, so I'm happy to speak out against it - whether it's Islamic, Christian or Port.

Radical extremist, thats so 2010's.

Recruiting people to my extremist views.

So I'm an influencer you reckon, lol, ffs.

I reckon you've done more for my 'cause' to be honest

 

[sr36]

Radical extremist, thats so 2010's.

Recruiting people to my extremist views.

So I'm an influencer you reckon, lol, ffs.

I reckon you've done more for my 'cause' to be honest

You think radicalisation is 2010? It's accelerating. You're clearly radicalised. Definitively so and spouting crazy stuff in an attempt to convince others.

 

[Underarm]

Solid deflection.

Is it not a pretty tin foil hats theory to say that the AFL are bribing the umpires to pay free kicks for Non Victorian clubs?

 

[Mr Meow]

Not at all, I dont care who reads or comments, they are and have, but only SR has taken it upon themselves to invest as much time as they have in something they dont rate.

It's just so pointless saying "well why do you care enough to comment" when you could stick to discussing the actual topic yourself. People comment on theories they don't believe in all the time. It would be pretty boring if everyone just stayed silent when they didn't fully agree with something. I even helped you by going through the 2020-2025 dataset.

The question we now have is why would early season bias be so prominent in 2025 and 2026 relative to other years? Is your theory that the AFL is panicking over recent non Vic dominance, but then need to cover things up as the year goes on and your findings go public?

 

[PenfoldsFan]

You think radicalisation is 2010? It's accelerating. You're clearly radicalised. Definitively so and spouting crazy stuff in an attempt to convince others.

You're literally keeping it the top of the page.
I haven't mentioned the stats all day, lol.

 

[ReturningHawk]

It's not that, it's the complete inconsistency.

Also, which half did you watch? Because they sure as shit weren't performing well in the first.

As we’ll say, all we want is consistency but the only thing we get from the umps are that they are consistently unconsistent.

I thought the problem was bias? If you’re argument is that umpiring is inconsistent then what is the point of this thread?

 

[sr36]

I haven't mentioned the stats all day, lol.

No, you've only baselessly suggested the AFL pays the umpires to cheat ...

 

[Waspy79]

You think radicalisation is 2010? It's accelerating. You're clearly radicalised. Definitively so and spouting crazy stuff in an attempt to convince others.

Plenty come here with no awareness or preconceived ideas as to what they will see, they simply want to share their own theories. Those that linger to oppose the positions presented armed with nothing more than the tin foil hat argument are really the ones with the credibility issue.

 

[ReturningHawk]

Who pays their wages?

You think the AFL itself is biased against interstate sides?

 

[ReturningHawk]

Plenty come here with no awareness or preconceived ideas as to what they will see, they simply want to share their own theories. Those that linger to oppose the positions presented armed with nothing more than the tin foil hat argument are really the ones with the credibility issue.

No, the suggestion that the AFL is undermining all teams based outside Victoria has the biggest credibility issue

 

[sr36]

Plenty come here with no awareness or preconceived ideas as to what they will see, they simply want to share their own theories. Those that linger to oppose the positions presented armed with nothing more than the tin foil hat argument are really the ones with the credibility issue.

We've gone through the stats. There is no argument against a baseless evidenceless claim that the AFL pays the umpires to cheat. And there is no defence for saying that the umpires deserve hate mail if the free kick count isn't to your liking.

 

[Waspy79]

I thought the problem was bias? If you’re argument is that umpiring is inconsistent then what is the point of this thread?

Hawks getting the first 13 free kicks of the second half when trailing Port by 10 goals isn’t at all ‘inconsistent’, right?

 

[Waspy79]

We've gone through the stats. There is no argument against a baseless evidence claim that the AFL pays the umpires to cheat. And there is no defence for saying that the umpires deserve hate mail if the free kick count isn't to your liking.

The stats show conclusively there is bias. I’m not here to suggest the league pays the umpires to cheat, but I certainly wouldn’t put it past them putting a word in to help certain teams or manipulate results and momentum. Hate mail is pretty strong and I’d question anyone that goes to that extreme, but so is being a cheat, and there have been cheats in league umpiring ranks.

 

[txbyhull]

It seems as if most of this thread has turned towards umpiring, which I have more an issue with being ****ing shit as a whole, not just any sort of bias.

My VICbias issues are all inherent to the competition; travel, a majority victorian draftee base, MCG grand final, etc.

Yes all those things are inherent and givens, that clubs were aware of before joining, but it doesn't make them then not valid complaints or issues with the competitive balance of the game. Two things can be true at once

 

[Waspy79]

No, the suggestion that the AFL is undermining all teams based outside Victoria has the biggest credibility issue

Just need to look at the umpiring Hawthorn received in games against GWS and Sydney this season and Port (AO), Crows (Tassie), GWS (Tassie) last season to know there is underlying bias at the very least.

 

[ReturningHawk]

Hawks getting the first 13 free kicks of the second half when trailing Port by 10 goals isn’t at all ‘inconsistent’, right?

It is inconsistent. Why would the umps only start handing the Hawks free kicks once the game was over? Got any theories?

The stats show conclusively there is bias.

“The stats”, what, all of them? Be specific

I’m not here to suggest the league pays the umpires to cheat, but I certainly wouldn’t put it past them putting a word in to help certain teams or manipulate results and momentum. Hate mail is pretty strong and I’d question anyone that goes to that extreme, but so is being a cheat, and there have been cheats in league umpiring ranks.

Why would they hand GC the second easiest fixture and then ask the umps to make life hard for them?

 

[PenfoldsFan]

It's just so pointless saying "well why do you care enough to comment" when you could stick to discussing the actual topic yourself. People comment on theories they don't believe in all the time. It would be pretty boring if everyone just stayed silent when they didn't fully agree with something. I even helped you by going through the 2020-2025 dataset. The question we now have is why would early season bias be so prominent in 2025 and 2026 relative to other years? Is your theory that the AFL is panicking over non Vic dominance, but then need to cover things up as the year goes on?

It remains to be seen.

 

[ReturningHawk]

Just need to look at the umpiring Hawthorn received in games against GWS and Sydney this season and Port (AO), Crows (Tassie), GWS (Tassie) last season to know there is underlying bias at the very least.

Was it the (touched) mark and 50m penalty to Sydney in the last 10 minutes that gave it away?

Think you’ll find that the “stats” show Hawthorn and Sydney are bottom two for free kicks differential this century.

 

[Underarm]

Victorian teams have won 13 and a draw of 15 free kick counts against Interstate teams in 2026.

They also won 7 from 7 free kick counts against Interstate teams in Rd2.

And are currently +68 frees to advantage from 15 h2h matchups against Interstate teams.

#everybitacharity

You're literally keeping it the top of the page.
I haven't mentioned the stats all day, lol.

 

[PenfoldsFan]

Unddrarm, you do realise that post was from thread #2 last night, yeah?

 

[sr36]

The stats show conclusively there is bias. I’m not here to suggest the league pays the umpires to cheat, but I certainly wouldn’t put it past them putting a word in to help certain teams or manipulate results and momentum. Hate mail is pretty strong and I’d question anyone that goes to that extreme, but so is being a cheat, and there have been cheats in league umpiring ranks.

Which stats show this? Penfolds nonsense sure as hell isn't even inching towards conclusive. Thinking it is shows very little knowledge of statistics, probability or bias. Last year we had the same shit that went silent when the nonsense count levelled up into an extremely common distribution. Someone has looked at it over 5 years - it shows a distribution that coin tosses would give half the time. Considering there's about 90 13 game sequences every year, probablity suggests, youd expect one of the teams to have a run like this every one and a half years. It's really not even remotely statistically significant. Conclusive is absurd.

And that all assumes that free kicks are totally about luck and that player actions, team tactics and philosophy aren't relevant to the free kick count.

 

[Underarm]

Unddrarm, you do realise that post was from thread #2 last night, yeah?

Ah got me on a technicality.

 

[PenfoldsFan]

We've gone through the stats. There is no argument against a baseless evidenceless claim that the AFL pays the umpires to cheat. And there is no defence for saying that the umpires deserve hate mail if the free kick count isn't to your liking.

Dont put words in my mouth SR, I've never advocated for hate mail towards Umpires.

I said paying 16-1 probably deserves backlash and it got it, on here, in pubs, around the office cooler, shit, I believe it was also referenced in the local rag when he got done for his other antics more recently and most would agree, WB supporters aside.

 

[PenfoldsFan]

Ah got me on a technicality.

All good, an honest mistake.