We are going to see some crazy trades - demand far exceeds supply

[Leather Poisoning]

As Whitfield is another 'big fish' that gets signed up we are seeing a really odd situation in which so many clubs have huge, huge needs that won't be plugged by trading in players.

I've thought about this from a Hawthorn perspective. We badly need another A grade mid. We also need to replace Hodge and Gibson. Sure, young players might step up. Clarkson might reconfigure the game plan to make the most of what we DO have, but as it stands we would be looking for 3x A graders to seriously fly up into top 4/flag contention.

But we're not the only ones.
North have holes everywhere. Excess salary cap and missed out on Martin.
West Coast have to build a midfield without Mitchell and Priddis in it. Sure, they're both past their best and need to retire - but who will replace them?
St Kilda say goodbye to Riewoldt. Can Bruce and that ex Essendon bloke (forget his name) cover the load?
Geelong have a lot of roles to fill. Small forward. Second marking forward. Lonergan replacement. Cupboard looks pretty bare.
Bulldogs have lost Hamling, Morris and Murphy in the last two offseasons and must be hanging out for some backline run AND KPD talent.

With such a list of quality players retiring in 2018 I think the list gaps have opened up suddenly for a lot of teams. So demand is sudden.
Add to that, everyone has an extra $2m in the salary cap.

On the demand side, there really aren't that many names left that haven't signed contracts. It's pretty much down to:
Kelly
Lever
Rockliff
Trengove
Stringer
Gibbs?
Motlop?
Menzel?
Maybe Kennedy(GWS)?

I think we'll either see:
- A lot of clubs pay far too much for the few players that are available (picks and/or salary)
- A lot more contracted players being involved in discussions.

I don't think the players have ever had this much bargaining power - and some clubs are either going to have to accept a really flat 2018 or get really creative during the trade period with contracted players and draft picks.

 

[go_the_dockers]

I wonder who will be the equivalent of Mayne or Vickery this year?

Clubs rebuilding chuck money at free agents with the hope of getting lucky.

It is a great year to a free agent.

Two players to add to your list is Motlop and Menzel.

 

[Leather Poisoning]

I wonder who will be the equivalent of Mayne or Vickery this year?

Clubs rebuilding chuck money at free agents with the hope of getting lucky.

It is a great year to a free agent.

Two players to add to your list is Motlop and Menzel.

Yep. We paid through the nose for Vickery out of fear that Roughy might not come good and Ceglar was injured.

Now imagine that effect multiplied across half the league! That's what we're looking at.

(I hadn't forgotten Menzel and Motlop - I just don't see them as good hole-pluggers. I'll add them for the sake of discussion)

 

[Leather Poisoning]

I wish Voss was still a senior coach. He'd shine in an offseason like this.

 

[Capt Hindsight]

Rockliff will see some big offers come his way whether he accepts them or not who knows.
He is the only quality midfielder free agent left.

 

[Jaeger]

Also with how even the competition is clubs will think they are only a few players away from genuinely contending.

Obviously a lot changed at Richmond since last year but it started with a few key trades bringing in Caddy, Prestia and Nankervis.

 

[GreatBradScott]

Was thinking about this last night. Dons, Saints, Blues and us have earmarked or at least gestured to aggressive trading or at least the ability to move on picks. At least two of those are going to miss out on the available get-able pool, unless they start going after the contracted.

 

[M0557]

I wonder who will be the equivalent of Mayne or Vickery this year?

Clubs rebuilding chuck money at free agents with the hope of getting lucky.

It is a great year to a free agent.

Two players to add to your list is Motlop and Menzel.

Taberner

 

[Leather Poisoning]

Also with how even the competition is clubs will think they are only a few players away from genuinely contending.

Obviously a lot changed at Richmond since last year but it started with a few key trades bringing in Caddy, Prestia and Nankervis.

Richmond cleaned out off field which was a good move.
Trading an old Deledio for a first round pick was great.
I thought the Prestia move was a bad one, until you realise that he takes the pressure off Cotchin and Martin who have both had much better seasons.

Also - moving Vickery on and making the decision to go with a small forward line rather than having a second tall for the sake of it seems to have worked a treat.

 

[Capt Hindsight]

Was thinking about this last night. Dons, Saints, Blues and us have earmarked or at least gestured to aggressive trading or at least the ability to move on picks. At least two of those are going to miss out on the available get-able pool, unless they start going after the contracted.

Stringer being placed on the trade table certainly helps as he would fit all 4 clubs.
All 4 clubs still have interest in Kelly.
Rockliff would be on Essendon's and North Melbourne's radar.
All 4 would consider Kennedy from GWS.
I wouldn't be surprised if Bulldogs move on Libba who also would appeal to all 4 clubs.

 

[Leather Poisoning]

Stringer being placed on the trade table certainly helps as he would fit all 4 clubs.
All 4 clubs still have interest in Kelly.
Rockliff would be on Essendon's and North Melbourne's radar.
All 4 would consider Kennedy from GWS.
I wouldn't be surprised if Bulldogs move on Libba who also would appeal to all 4 clubs.

Why would the Bulldogs move on Libba?

 

[go_the_dockers]

Taberner

I wonder if he was played as a true CHF and allowed to lead up the ground and take marks up on the wing how good he would be?

He can't be the main target, but I think in the right team he would be a handy player.

 

[GreatBradScott]

Stringer being placed on the trade table certainly helps as he would fit all 4 clubs.
All 4 clubs still have interest in Kelly.
Rockliff would be on Essendon's and North Melbourne's radar.
All 4 would consider Kennedy from GWS.
I wouldn't be surprised if Bulldogs move on Libba who also would appeal to all 4 clubs.

Would depends what's on the table. Still think they should try a last minute intervention or convo with Stringer, cause trading him is stark raving mad.

 

[Capt Hindsight]

Why would the Bulldogs move on Libba?

Had a very inconsistent season and was dropped to VFL for 3 weeks in which he didn't dominate. The round 21 game against GWS was probably the worst he has played in a long time.

 

[M0557]

I wonder if he was played as a true CHF and allowed to lead up the ground and take marks up on the wing how good he would be?

He can't be the main target, but I think in the right team he would be a handy player.

Agree, but I think he will be an example of someone paying overs to lure him.

 

[Capt Hindsight]

Would depends what's on the table. Still think they should try a last minute intervention or convo with Stringer, cause trading him is stark raving mad.

Can't see them mending their relationship with Stringer now.

 

[Wojcinski]

This exact scenario played out in this years NBA off-season. Some really average players got some incredibly good contracts.

 

[AcuteWhistle]

As Whitfield is another 'big fish' that gets signed up we are seeing a really odd situation in which so many clubs have huge, huge needs that won't be plugged by trading in players.

I've thought about this from a Hawthorn perspective. We badly need another A grade mid. We also need to replace Hodge and Gibson. Sure, young players might step up. Clarkson might reconfigure the game plan to make the most of what we DO have, but as it stands we would be looking for 3x A graders to seriously fly up into top 4/flag contention.

But we're not the only ones.
North have holes everywhere. Excess salary cap and missed out on Martin.
West Coast have to build a midfield without Mitchell and Priddis in it. Sure, they're both past their best and need to retire - but who will replace them?
St Kilda say goodbye to Riewoldt. Can Bruce and that ex Essendon bloke (forget his name) cover the load?
Geelong have a lot of roles to fill. Small forward. Second marking forward. Lonergan replacement. Cupboard looks pretty bare.
Bulldogs have lost Hamling, Morris and Murphy in the last two offseasons and must be hanging out for some backline run AND KPD talent.

With such a list of quality players retiring in 2018 I think the list gaps have opened up suddenly for a lot of teams. So demand is sudden.
Add to that, everyone has an extra $2m in the salary cap.

On the demand side, there really aren't that many names left that haven't signed contracts. It's pretty much down to:
Kelly
Lever
Rockliff
Trengove
Stringer
Gibbs?
Motlop?
Menzel?
Maybe Kennedy(GWS)?

I think we'll either see:
- A lot of clubs pay far too much for the few players that are available (picks and/or salary)
- A lot more contracted players being involved in discussions.

I don't think the players have ever had this much bargaining power - and some clubs are either going to have to accept a really flat 2018 or get really creative during the trade period with contracted players and draft picks.

It will be interesting to see how it plays out - from an Essendon pov, our list managers would be desperate to add some midfield grunt & have got the cash to go overs if necessary, but will they.

On your list, I would have had McKenna on there as well but thankfully he has signed on today for 4.

 

[Big_Birdy]

This exact scenario played out in this years NBA off-season. Some really average players got some incredibly good contracts.

So who is going to be the AFLs Chicago Bulls? God I hope not us

 

[Milanista28]

Tom Lynch will be paid in excess of 2 Mill next season, Clubs like North and Blues will look to pay 1.5-1.7, Then the AFL will offer him an ambassadorial role for the suns which will beat those offers, He is in a fantastic position to really take advantage of this new landscape.

 

[Capt Hindsight]

So who is going to be the AFLs Chicago Bulls? God I hope not us

If Ablett leaves as expected i think GCS will pay the biggest overs even to land B grade players.
They can't keep going to the draft.

 

[Leather Poisoning]

If Ablett leaves as expected i think GCS will pay the biggest overs even to land B grade players.
They can't keep going to the draft.

No wonder the afl stepped in with a comment on ambassador payments.

They are in such a mess it's impossible to know where to begin.

 

[Linda_Lovelace]

There will be a lot of contracted players trades, especially those approaching free agents status where the club wants an immediate return v a compo pick.

 

[Leather Poisoning]

There will be a lot of contracted players trades, especially those approaching free agents status where the club wants an immediate return v a compo pick.

Who's in that bracket?

 

[Groin guru]

Tom Lynch will be paid in excess of 2 Mill next season, Clubs like North and Blues will look to pay 1.5-1.7, Then the AFL will offer him an ambassadorial role for the suns which will beat those offers, He is in a fantastic position to really take advantage of this new landscape.

Bang on. Both he and his manager will be licking their lips. Suns will keep him but it'll be some interesting payments coming his way.