Weaver mock draft

[Weaver]

Weaver, your comments are smart about how we could use strategy to snare the best KPP player at no.1 and still get a genuine mid at 4, but that is starting to sound like the carlton of old/ or fremantle....IMO it would be a huge blunder to pass on murphy just to "do-over" collingwood and hawthorn for the best KPP....IMO they'd be doing us over by taking murphy...

I am not suggesting that you would be trying to do-over Collingwood and Hawthorn.

I am suggesting that you have three choices.

1. Murphy and Dowler/Hughes/Clarke
or
2. Kennedy and Hurn
or
3. Murphy and Hurn

To me choice 3 leaves you with two midfielders and you need some quality big blokes.

Choice 2 returns better value for the picks than choice 1 (IMHO).

 

[LukeHodge15]

I was saying this earlier today, but at some point in all the hype over whether Murphy was going to go to Brisbane or not, he moved from being a "potential top 5 selection" to being the "consensus #1 selection", all without playing a single game of footy in that space of time.

I just think that everybody may have reacted to the hype, I don't think he's the #1 like Deledio was last year, or Cooney was the year before.

Taking another player for strategic reasons may actually make the most sense.

I think there are upsides to Murphy, Ellis and Hurn that place them all together in terms of value. I would rank them Ellis-Murphy-Hurn, but I know quasi-professional Col Wisbey, for example, ranks them Hurn-Murphy-Ellis, with Hurn being his #1 overall.

However, with the KPPs, I truly believe that Josh Kennedy is by far the standout.

Ryder is not a pure KPP, and neither is Clark. Dowler is really only capable of playing forward, and Hughes is probably less talented.

With Weaver's strategy, Carlton would get the best KPP and a midfielder that potentially has as much talent as Murphy or Ellis. If they take Murphy, they won't get Kennedy, as I have no doubt that Ellis and Kennedy would go at #2 and #3, in whichever order. They'd be settling for second best in terms of KPPs, and that's not how to play it with early draft picks.

It's a similar game to the one Hawthorn played last year, where they chose to take the best available KPP at #2, and see what happened with #5, rather than take the 2nd best midfielder at #2 and the second best KPP at #5.

Drafting is as much about strategy as it is about taking the best player at that spot.

IMO, if I was a Carlton fan, with mind of Carlton's needs, I'd be happier with Kennedy + Hurn than I would with Murphy + Ryder.

good point but i still cant see the hawks taking ellis at 3. or maybe that is i hope they dont take ellis at 3

 

[Weaver]

Any reason why Tent West isn't in your list?

He was towelled up in the Championships. He was nearly anonymous in the finals. He is only on most people's lists by default because of his status as the best ruckman in the TAC Cup. Was a lousy year. McEntee and Ryder will get taken, maybe Graham ... clubs won't be falling over themselves to get the ruck crop this year.

 

[OldSchool]

Great work Weaver. Really enjoyed the read. Interesting that you have identified one or two prospects that nearly everyone else has missed.

 

[Tricky_Ricky2]

Weaver, would like to know your thoughts on Robert Eddy........

 

[LukeHodge15]

Hawthorn generally don't recruit ruckmen, particularly early.

Collingwood have not had much success with their ruckman conversion projects of late and with Cameron Cloke basically the same player have other needs.

Carlton (and Pagan) tend to prefer genuinely tall ruckmen and not go for the mobile around the ground type. I don't think they'd gamble an early pick on ending up with another Hotton or Prendergast who wasn't quite anything.

I think Richmond took a ruckman/forward early last year in Pattison.
Brisbane took Wood and have a long queue of ruckmen that they are trying to cull.

I think Essendon need someone to help Johnson in the middle too much to take a ruckman. If they want a mid-sized ruckman they can use Cartledge, Laycock or Bradley.

All of a sudden you are down to pick 10 (Freo) and 11 (Dogs). Freo is the one that makes most sense, they definately need a ruckman. But Oakley-Nicholls is too good to pass on. That leave the Dogs at 11 getting lucky.

all good points, although i reckon essendon might jump all over ryder at 7.

the advantage hawthron has with having 5 picks inside the top 22 is that we should take the best talent available with each of its picks. seems the draft is strong at the top with talls so we might as well draft 2 of them with our first 2 picks.

although just have an inkling that AC will jump all over hurn if he gets to pick 3.

 

[sante]

Who is most likely to play AFL in 2006?

 

[Weaver]

In a dream team point of view. Who will score the best?

Hurn 25 uncontested, pointless possesions in the back-pocket every week. If he goes to Hawthorn recruit him and Hodge. They'll spend all day switching play to each other and never leaving the defensive 50.

 

[LukeHodge15]

Hurn 25 uncontested, pointless possesions in the back-pocket every week. If he goes to Hawthorn recruit him and Hodge. They'll spend all day switching play to each other and never leaving the defensive 50.

now that is just cruel weaver....

recruiting hurn will let hodge play a more attacking midfielders role. hurns booming 60 metre kicks coming off the half back flank. i'd like to see that

 

[sante]

Hurn 25 uncontested, pointless possesions in the back-pocket every week. If he goes to Hawthorn recruit him and Hodge. They'll spend all day switching play to each other and never leaving the defensive 50.

I'm in AFL Team Manager on here and have Pick #1 and #7. No Hurn for me.

 

[coasting]

Patrick Ryder is better than Josh Kennedy.

In fact, only the bottom 3 clubs have interviewed Ryder because they all know he won't last past pick 6.

 

[Weaver]

Great work Weaver. Really enjoyed the read. Interesting that you have identified one or two prospects that nearly everyone else has missed.

Doesn't mean that I think they will get taken, just that I am sick of people taking other people's lists and reordering them. When my list is completely wrong I can at least take pride in getting it all wrong all by myself

Anyway if Mal Lynch gets taken (and it is a 0.00001% chance), I can forever claim to know what I am talking about.

 

[marcuz]

19. Matt Laidlaw – Essendon
Bombers have never been frightened of taking kids on schoolboy form.

You'd think we would have learnt a lesson from doing that. Just hearing the name James Davies gives bomber fans nightmares. Watson and richards are just solid footballers to.

Im not even going to try and predict what essendon will do but if we go strictly by a need then a midfielder who can win the hard nut and a chb will be a big priority. We have gone for the best available talent no matter what they are these last couple of years so pick 7 could be anything.

Just hope sheeds keeps his nose out of it.

 

[Ford Fairlane]

I'm interested in why you rated Nick Lower to go comparatively early ... I'm not having a go as I have no idea - just that he seems barely on others radar.

 

[Weaver]

Weaver, would like to know your thoughts on Robert Eddy........

Handy player but just hasn't done enough to warrant being selected this year. He has only looked a little above average so far and I expect him to be back for another year at Gippy. He really needs to get his shot at the midfield which he should do next year. Not many clubs are going to go for a guy who has played mostly in the pocket.

 

[Wizard]

If Ryder is still around at 10 we will be absolutely pulling our dicks at the thought of getting him that late.
And J'Lo is not 25 either, dont no his exact age bout i think 22-23 at the oldest.

 

[evo]

Very interesting, good to see you're not just going with the flow Weaver.I like how high you have Hughes too.

I also like how high you have the Lower brothers.Was starting to think no one else rated them.

Ryan Jackson is a steal @37.A guy with such a big motor and can play alot of positions has AFL player written all over him for mine.

If Richmond get Dowler,Riscbeith and Seal I'll be most satisfied.
I'm disapointed Miller wont use our 4th rounder there's still quality in the 50's.

Sam ILes will be drafted IMO.I dont see him mentioned.

 

[macca69]

Yeh any reason you dont have Iles, Stanley and Lonergan in your mock draft?

 

[Weaver]

I'm interested in why you rated Nick Lower to go comparatively early ... I'm not having a go as I have no idea - just that he seems barely on others radar.

I think that AFL clubs ideal players are 185cm+ guys who can run, kick, take an overhead mark and play in a variety of positions. Lower fits the template. Watched the SA v Country game again this weekend. Ed did a lot better than I remembered and both are impressive.

 

[bmaurizio]

Yes Kenedy and Hurn would be very astute selections for the Blues.
Weaver you’ve really got me thinking.
What about Courtney Dempsey at 36? What’s the mail on this guy ?
Appreciate the good work
Ciao

 

[Murray]

Collingwood would take them in a flash!

Probably but I think we might take another mid with pick 5

 

[Weaver]

Yeh any reason you dont have Iles, Stanley and Lonergan in your mock draft?

Iles and Lonergan are just good rovers. Heaps of them around, why bother recruiting one unless they are guns? Wait to see how they go in the VFL.

Stanley can't kick to save himself and at 184cm he ain't no CHB. Gutsiest player out there, love to play alongside him, but in the modern possesion-orietented game of keepings off we call AFL ... nup.

 

[Vinnie Vegas]

If Ryder is still around at 10 we will be absolutely pulling our dicks at the thought of getting him that late.
And J'Lo is not 25 either, dont no his exact age bout i think 22-23 at the oldest.

He'll be 25 in January next year, so for next season, he'll be 25.

 

[Weaver]

Ryan Jackson is a steal @37.A guy with such a big motor and can play alot of positions has AFL player written all over him for mine.

Position? He can't get away with CHF in the AFL, you'd want someone with a bit more dash as a loose man in defence. He mostly plays wing but he is a bit flat-footed for that. I love the way he plays, had him as a top-30 last year, but finding a role for him?

 

[Zack]

Great Read, not sure I agree with your thoughts on Hawthorns recruiting policies which I think are based more on the Schwab years (but then again you might be right AC's only had one year so he still might head down the same path I just hope not). Overall though your coverage of the players is great and the reasons why you think clubs will take them often gives a better understanding of what type of player they truly are based on your opinion which is refreshing view of many of them.