List Mgmt. Wells with top 30 draft picks

[dazbroncos]

They were. That said, at the time with the strength of our side, they might have struggled to get a game.

Lewie I thought was available at 28.... Darcy I didnt think so ....

But also not sure they were rated well enough to go when we picked...

Anyway, LT I could skip but Darcy has panned out..

Would have been hard drafting him with Rivers, HT, Domsy, Mackie, all playing..

but yes, we did miss him.

Go Catters

 

[Warhorse]

I reckon this is a bit of a mug's game, though, to judge a recruitment choice by the best that came after that pick. I think a better way would be to look at the five players picked after Lang, instead:

• Apeness
• Luke Dunstan
• Blake Acres
• Jack Leslie
• Jarman Impey

Of that, I'd prefer one of the StKilda pair over Lang, but not the other three.

Crouch and merrett would be handy...

 

[iameviljez]

Mitch Brown - Pick 15 2008. Injuries destroyed his first few years and he never really got going at Geelong. He was clearly in Essendon's best team this year before injury hit again which shows Wells picked a player with talent. Despite the bad luck with injury he's clearly better than a number of other picks around that spot (Lewis Johnston, Ayce Cordy, Sam Blease, James Strauss).

This is one where I think Geelong really did stuff up - in that we got Jared Rivers for 2013, and therefore kept Mitch Brown in the backline all season in the VFL where he kept tearing games to shreds, but just could not get a look-in in front of Rivers/Lonergan/Taylor.

2012, I remember he kicked nine in one VFL game but again just couldn't get a run at it in front of J-Pod and Hawkins. Getting him exposure at AFL level in defence would have been a great way to keep him in the side - he just wasn't going to get any better by playing VFL and effectively stagnated for three years.

Would have been nice to have him as a CHF option this year, but c'est la vie.

 

[iameviljez]

Crouch and merrett would be handy...

Yeah, but I reckon that's where the mug's game aspect comes into it somewhat. Looking at the full list of players picked afterwards - you're always going to find a good one that we missed.

 

[El Dubya]

This is one where I think Geelong really did stuff up - in that we got Jared Rivers for 2013, and therefore kept Mitch Brown in the backline all season in the VFL where he kept tearing games to shreds, but just could not get a look-in in front of Rivers/Lonergan/Taylor.

2012, I remember he kicked nine in one VFL game but again just couldn't get a run at it in front of J-Pod and Hawkins. Getting him exposure at AFL level in defence would have been a great way to keep him in the side - he just wasn't going to get any better by playing VFL and effectively stagnated for three years.

Would have been nice to have him as a CHF option this year, but c'est la vie.

Could not agree more.

 

[Warhorse]

2009 is the draft the could have set us up for the next decade. We could of built a team around that draft if it wasnt for the injuries. Back in 2011/2012 the talk was about building the forward line around Vardy. He was that highly regarded at the club. Menzel would have been a top 5 player of the competition if it wasnt for injury and christenson showed massive ability under pressure. Add duncan who is a-grade. What could have been

 

[iameviljez]

2009 is the draft the could have set us up for the next decade. We could of built a team around that draft if it wasnt for the injuries. Back in 2011/2012 the talk was about building the forward line around Vardy. He was that highly regarded at the club. Menzel would have been a top 5 player of the competition if it wasnt for injury and christenson showed massive ability under pressure. Add duncan who is a-grade. What could have been

Duncan is IMO the least naturally-talented player of that crop and he's turned out to be an A-grade midfielder.

Vardy should have been our CHF. I don't know what happened in 2016, but that slot should have been his but he couldn't get over the top of bloody Kersten, for goodness' sakes. After he played so well in the last game of 2015, I thought he was a lock.

 

[El Dubya]

Duncan is IMO the least naturally-talented player of that crop and he's turned out to be an A-grade midfielder.

Vardy should have been our CHF. I don't know what happened in 2016, but that slot should have been his but he couldn't get over the top of bloody Kersten, for goodness' sakes. After he played so well in the last game of 2015, I thought he was a lock.

I think Vardy was quite unpopular off field and a bit of a loose cannon. It was mentioned to me by someone who did a little work at the club during that period that the difference between Menzel and Vardy's work in the gym was vast.

 

[Whit3y]

Another way of looking at Wells' performance versus the rest:

View attachment 428230


As you can see I've broken it up into the periods 1997-2006 and 2007-2016. The reason for this is that a lot of the players drafted in the latter group are still playing and adding to their games tally so comparing those tallies against the all time average is misleading.

I think the data is pretty self-evident that Wells outperforms the competition almost across the entire draft.

its quiet clear from 97-06 wells was the man with the golden phallus, no one can doubt that

its also quiet clear from 07-16 his averages compared to the afl average is much lower

 

[catempire]

its also quiet clear from 07-16 his averages compared to the afl average is much lower

See explanation as to why. The same would apply to any club taking the approach that I have.

 

[Gee Class Loco]

Gardiner 22, Taylor 28.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_AFL_draft

I think Taylor failed the NO Dickhead policy at the time... also the character test that the club had installed.
I have no issue with it even though it cost us Jack Darling a few years back.
I'm all for "High Character" guys... works well in business and the AFL is a business after all.
Cheers!!

 

[Gee Class Loco]

I think Vardy was quite unpopular off field and a bit of a loose cannon. It was mentioned to me by someone who did a little work at the club during that period that the difference between Menzel and Vardy's work in the gym was vast.

Spot On!!
My understanding is... that Vardy didn't even know where the gym was...

 

[Whit3y]

That's a list of terrible picks. Wells' record is supposedly poor yet he hasn't picked any complete spuds in this list. Even Brown and Smedts were considered talented enough to play AFL this year. So if you go through the picks since 2008 we have:

Mitch Brown - Pick 15 2008. Injuries destroyed his first few years and he never really got going at Geelong. He was clearly in Essendon's best team this year before injury hit again which shows Wells picked a player with talent. Despite the bad luck with injury he's clearly better than a number of other picks around that spot (Lewis Johnston, Ayce Cordy, Sam Blease, James Strauss).

Daniel Menzel - Pick 17. 2009. You really can't question this pick. Got us an absolute gun who was destroyed by injury.

Mitch Duncan - Pick 28. 2009. Again picked us a gun who thankfully hasn't caught the injury curse.

Billy Smedts - Pick 15. 2010. Another one hurt by injuries and considering he's still getting opportunities has some talent. Disappointing result but again considering his injuries, talent and the poor drafting around his pick (Lucas Cook, Seb Tape, Matthew Watson, etc) it's not the worst pick ever.

Cam Guthrie - Pick 23. 2010. This is a pick that is much better than it's given credit for. There's a fair chance that by the end of his career he'll be the best (or close to) of those left at this point. Only a couple of mature agers (Puopolo and Howe) and a couple of guys who shot out of the blocks but have stalled recently (Parker, Darling and Liberatore) have had better careers up to this point. Considering the talent available this is a really good pick.

Jackson Thurlow - Pick 17. 2012. Once again this is a pick where everyone concentrates on what we didn't pick up (Grundy) than what we did. The fact is this draft was putrid. The list of players taken after Thurlow is a mix of spuds already delisted, fringe players and one very good player in Grundy. Taking a young ruckman is always risky and considering we were trying to challenge for flags, giving lots of time to a young ruckman was never likely to happen. So he picked up Thurlow who was a best 22 lock in his 3rd year. Unfortunately he then did his knee and who knows if he'll ever recover but Wells picked one of the most talented players left.

Darcy Lang - Pick 15. 2013. It'll be disappointing if he goes this year because his finals showed his talent. It's too early to judge where he'll end up but this draft has a lot of good players so it's easy to find "what ifs" from the picks after him.

Nakia Cockatoo - Pick 10. 2014. Another pick that was way earlier than people expected before the draft. Again people complain we didn't get Lever instead but that's ignoring that he's one of the few players taken after Cockatoo who's really impacted the league so far. It's way too early to judge him and nobody can deny that he's got a heap of talent in what looks like a pretty poor draft pool. My tip is if he gets a decent run without injury, Cockatoo will end up a gun.

Branden Parfitt - Pick 26. 2016. Way too early to judge but right now not many people have complaints.

but has cockatoo impacted the league as much as a duggan, weller, mclean,miller, maynard?
as a geelong fan of course he has impacted the league more then any of the names below, who's heard of lachlan weller or a liam duggan ? certainly not me

cockatoo averaged 9 disposals in 2017. just let that sink in for a bit
weller averaged 20
duggan averaged 16
miller averaged 20
maynard averaged 17
mclean averaged 22
howe averaged 16

 

[El Dubya]

but has cockatoo impacted the league as much as a duggan, weller, mclean,miller, maynard?
as a geelong fan of course he has impacted the league more then any of the names below, who's heard of lachlan weller or a liam duggan ? certainly not me

cockatoo averaged 9 disposals in 2017. just let that sink in for a bit
weller averaged 20
duggan averaged 16
miller averaged 20
maynard averaged 17
mclean averaged 22
howe averaged 16

Well if you haven't heard of those names you obviously don't really follow football then? I would say that for his role Cockatoo is better than all those players bar Weller, who I think would be a gun in a decent team.

 

[catempire]

but has cockatoo impacted the league as much as a duggan, weller, mclean,miller, maynard?
as a geelong fan of course he has impacted the league more then any of the names below, who's heard of lachlan weller or a liam duggan ? certainly not me

cockatoo averaged 9 disposals in 2017. just let that sink in for a bit
weller averaged 20
duggan averaged 16
miller averaged 20
maynard averaged 17
mclean averaged 22
howe averaged 16

Thrilled to have Cockatoo over any of those.

 

[Partridge]

Well if you haven't heard of those names you obviously don't really follow football then? I would say that for his role Cockatoo is better than all those players bar Weller, who I think would be a gun in a decent team.

On pure talent yes, but right now - and evidenced again in the Prelim against Adelaide - it's way more hype than substance.

 

[iameviljez]

its quiet clear from 97-06 wells was the man with the golden phallus, no one can doubt that

its also quiet clear from 07-16 his averages compared to the afl average is much lower

It's as though he had limited picks to work with, and the young players he drafted couldn't get a good run in an incredibly successful senior side.

 

[iameviljez]

On pure talent yes, but right now - and evidenced again in the Prelim against Adelaide - it's way more hype than substance.

Not the worst player in that prelim, to be honest.

But, overall, I agree with you. Fingers crossed he Does an Ablett someday.

 

[xtatik222k]

Still, id also suggest that player development and some injury luck would help us.

Go Catters

In my opinion the biggest thing to have cost us in the last 5 years. Detrimental injuries at the wrong times. Duncan, Hawkins, Menzel, Thurlow, Cocky, etc etc, on and on... A dream run with injuries in a season is worth 3-4 ladder positions. In the case of Richmond, sometimes a premiership.

 

[Mr Blicavs]

Every year around this time there are comments on this board that Wells' record isn't particularly good when it comes to early draft picks. So I thought I'd go through and see what picks have been delisted in the drafts since 2008.

Carlton - Yarran (6), Lucas (12), Watson (18), Bootsma (22), Viojo-Rainbow (28)
Sydney - Johnston (12)
Western Bulldogs - Cordy (14), Howard (15)
Melbourne - Blease (17), Strauss (19), Gysberts (11), Tapscott (18), Cook (12)
West Coast - Swift (20), Weedon (22), Newman (23)
Richmond - Post (26)
Fremantle - Morabito (4), Pitt (20), Forster (29), Simpson (17)
Port Adelaide - Butcher (8), Moore (9), Shaw (30)
Brisbane - Bartlett (27), Karnezis (25)
Gold Coast - Tape (13), Garlett (15)
North Melbourne - Harper (27), McKenzie (18)
Essendon - Kavanagh (19)
GWS - Sumner (10)
StKilda - White (25)

That's a list of terrible picks. Wells' record is supposedly poor yet he hasn't picked any complete spuds in this list. Even Brown and Smedts were considered talented enough to play AFL this year. So if you go through the picks since 2008 we have:

Mitch Brown - Pick 15 2008. Injuries destroyed his first few years and he never really got going at Geelong. He was clearly in Essendon's best team this year before injury hit again which shows Wells picked a player with talent. Despite the bad luck with injury he's clearly better than a number of other picks around that spot (Lewis Johnston, Ayce Cordy, Sam Blease, James Strauss).

Daniel Menzel - Pick 17. 2009. You really can't question this pick. Got us an absolute gun who was destroyed by injury.

Mitch Duncan - Pick 28. 2009. Again picked us a gun who thankfully hasn't caught the injury curse.

Billy Smedts - Pick 15. 2010. Another one hurt by injuries and considering he's still getting opportunities has some talent. Disappointing result but again considering his injuries, talent and the poor drafting around his pick (Lucas Cook, Seb Tape, Matthew Watson, etc) it's not the worst pick ever.

Cam Guthrie - Pick 23. 2010. This is a pick that is much better than it's given credit for. There's a fair chance that by the end of his career he'll be the best (or close to) of those left at this point. Only a couple of mature agers (Puopolo and Howe) and a couple of guys who shot out of the blocks but have stalled recently (Parker, Darling and Liberatore) have had better careers up to this point. Considering the talent available this is a really good pick.

Jackson Thurlow - Pick 17. 2012. Once again this is a pick where everyone concentrates on what we didn't pick up (Grundy) than what we did. The fact is this draft was putrid. The list of players taken after Thurlow is a mix of spuds already delisted, fringe players and one very good player in Grundy. Taking a young ruckman is always risky and considering we were trying to challenge for flags, giving lots of time to a young ruckman was never likely to happen. So he picked up Thurlow who was a best 22 lock in his 3rd year. Unfortunately he then did his knee and who knows if he'll ever recover but Wells picked one of the most talented players left.

Darcy Lang - Pick 15. 2013. It'll be disappointing if he goes this year because his finals showed his talent. It's too early to judge where he'll end up but this draft has a lot of good players so it's easy to find "what ifs" from the picks after him.

Nakia Cockatoo - Pick 10. 2014. Another pick that was way earlier than people expected before the draft. Again people complain we didn't get Lever instead but that's ignoring that he's one of the few players taken after Cockatoo who's really impacted the league so far. It's way too early to judge him and nobody can deny that he's got a heap of talent in what looks like a pretty poor draft pool. My tip is if he gets a decent run without injury, Cockatoo will end up a gun.

Branden Parfitt - Pick 26. 2016. Way too early to judge but right now not many people have complaints.

So is this a list of misses? By my mind Menzel, Duncan, Guthrie, Thurlow, Cockatoo and Parfitt either already are or are likely in the future to be seen as among the best 5 talents available at that pick. That's 6 out of 9 which in my mind is a pretty damn good hit rate. Two of the others had shocking injury runs and Lang could still be a very good player. So am I imagining it or is Wells' lack of success with early picks in the last decade a myth?

Mitch Brown and Billy Smedts.......cmon

 

[TheYid]

Spot On!!
My understanding is... that Vardy didn't even know where the gym was...

Well, one of his self-proclaimed nick names was "Party Vardy". 'Nuff said.

 

[Partridge]

Mitch Brown and Billy Smedts.......cmon

Reasonable question to ask if skinny players should be drafted given shoulder injuries to both players. But both were justified on talent.

 

[Cronin]

Thrilled to have Cockatoo over any of those.

Where do you think they'll play him next year?

My preference would be half forward flank but could also see him starting on a wing.

 

[catempire]

Where do you think they'll play him next year?

My preference would be half forward flank but could also see him starting on a wing.

I think he’s a forward of centre player so something like that.

 

[Cronin]

I think he’s a forward of centre player so something like that.

His hamstring's worry me, we'll need to get Atleast 18+ games out of him next year.