What happens next if Putin drops a nuke on Ukraine?

[O Grobbecker]

Putin hasn't mentioned nukes since September. Has the US had a quiet word in his ear ?

 

[Seeds]

Putin hasn't mentioned nukes since September. Has the US had a quiet word in his ear ?

this is a positive. Thought he would keep ramping up the talk. Lets see what happens once the russian military start seriously threatening a coup. Thats the end game.

 

[kranky al]

Radiation would poison Russians and someone would whack Putin.

Theres more than one way to skin a cat.

Using neutron bombs for instance.

 

[Dramoth]

Vlad prefers to keep Belarus & his bitch Lukashenko under his influence. This is another reason why he'll never pull the nuclear trigger.

And Lukashenko has no intention of sending his military in to fight the Ukrainians. He's already lost about a battalion of his troops to the Ukrainians... who are over there fighting with the Ukrainians against the Russians. As well, if the troops get the order to roll out and invade Ukraine, there is a good chance they are going to change direction and depose that mutt.

 

[Dramoth]

What would happen if Putin drops a tactical nuke on Ukraine. Polish, Lithuanian, Latvian, and Estonian troops would roll over the border. Belarus would fall in a day as NATO asserts air superiority over western Russia. There is a good chance that Finland would also roll over their border with Russia heading for St Petersberg. Sweden would put an air umbrella over Finland. The USA would have Putin on the phone telling him that better be the last one or Moscow is going to resemble a glass topped parking lot.

Kalingrad would revert to being a Lithuanian/Polish city or perhaps becoming its own little country similar to Luxembourg or Lichstenstein.

India and China would condemn Russia, and Putin specifically. Kim Jong Un would probably try launching a nuke at Japan and try to invade South Korea. Japan would assist South Korea in stomping a mudhole in Kim's arse.

I don't think that China would use the distraction of the Russian nuke to invade Taiwan, but there is a good chance that might happen.

Putin would probably be dead within a week of ordering the nuclear strike... even his oligarchs don't want a nuclear conflict. It would affect their bottom lines too much.

 

[Marcel Proust]

Putin hasn't mentioned nukes since September. Has the US had a quiet word in his ear ?

Apparently they have only communicated once. Directly. On the de-escalation phone line.

When the nuclear power plant was being attacked, somewhat recently

 

[Present Not Past]

What would happen if Putin drops a tactical nuke on Ukraine. Polish, Lithuanian, Latvian, and Estonian troops would roll over the border. Belarus would fall in a day as NATO asserts air superiority over western Russia. There is a good chance that Finland would also roll over their border with Russia heading for St Petersberg. Sweden would put an air umbrella over Finland. The USA would have Putin on the phone telling him that better be the last one or Moscow is going to resemble a glass topped parking lot.

Kalingrad would revert to being a Lithuanian/Polish city or perhaps becoming its own little country similar to Luxembourg or Lichstenstein.

India and China would condemn Russia, and Putin specifically. Kim Jong Un would probably try launching a nuke at Japan and try to invade South Korea. Japan would assist South Korea in stomping a mudhole in Kim's arse.

I don't think that China would use the distraction of the Russian nuke to invade Taiwan, but there is a good chance that might happen.

Putin would probably be dead within a week of ordering the nuclear strike... even his oligarchs don't want a nuclear conflict. It would affect their bottom lines too much.

Xi has basically laid it out brutally to Putin - no nukes.

 

[O Grobbecker]

Xi has basically laid it out brutally to Putin - no nukes.

Is that fact ? How do you know that ? I heard a commentator speculate that the US, through the 2 Intelligence agencies, had warned Russia that if it went nuclear, the US would destroy its known nuke sites with conventional weapons. There’s so much speculation around.

 

[Seeds]

What would happen if Putin drops a tactical nuke on Ukraine. Polish, Lithuanian, Latvian, and Estonian troops would roll over the border. Belarus would fall in a day as NATO asserts air superiority over western Russia. There is a good chance that Finland would also roll over their border with Russia heading for St Petersberg. Sweden would put an air umbrella over Finland. The USA would have Putin on the phone telling him that better be the last one or Moscow is going to resemble a glass topped parking lot.

Kalingrad would revert to being a Lithuanian/Polish city or perhaps becoming its own little country similar to Luxembourg or Lichstenstein.

India and China would condemn Russia, and Putin specifically. Kim Jong Un would probably try launching a nuke at Japan and try to invade South Korea. Japan would assist South Korea in stomping a mudhole in Kim's arse.

I don't think that China would use the distraction of the Russian nuke to invade Taiwan, but there is a good chance that might happen.

Putin would probably be dead within a week of ordering the nuclear strike... even his oligarchs don't want a nuclear conflict. It would affect their bottom lines too much.

Even the oligarchs?

The oligarchs never wanted the Ukraine war to begin with as its destroyed their wealth and livelihood. Have you gotten confused between the oligarchs and the military?

 

[Zidane98]

Is that fact ? How do you know that ? I heard a commentator speculate that the US, through the 2 Intelligence agencies, had warned Russia that if it went nuclear, the US would destroy its known nuke sites with conventional weapons. There’s so much speculation around.

China absolutely would have communicated to Putin that use of nuclear weapon first strikes is absolutely unacceptable. Many of Russia's nuclear arsenal are based in the far east. Have a guess what happens to China if a shooting war starts.

Aside from all this a nuclear first strike cannot be launched by Putin alone, he needs the entire chain of command to agree. As powerful as Putin is within Russia there are going to be very few that agree with him firing a nuke just based on his ego being bruised because Russia are losing / being embarrassed in Ukraine.

 

[Seeds]

China absolutely would have communicated to Putin that use of nuclear weapon first strikes is absolutely unacceptable. Many of Russia's nuclear arsenal are based in the far east. Have a guess what happens to China if a shooting war starts.

Aside from all this a nuclear first strike cannot be launched by Putin alone, he needs the entire chain of command to agree. As powerful as Putin is within Russia there are going to be very few that agree with him firing a nuke just based on his ego being bruised because Russia are losing / being embarrassed in Ukraine.

Um the military are more keen to launch a nuke then putin. And I don't think there is much of a chain of command in Russia. Might only be 2 or 3 people required to know. Plus have we learnt nothing from history.? It took a whole chain of command to carry out nazi death camps. A lot lot bigger chain then necessary to launch a nuke. Hell the soldiers pressing the nuke button don't even need to know what it is they are actually doing. They could just be told it's war games.

 

[Zidane98]

Um the military are more keen to launch a nuke then putin. And I don't think there is much of a chain of command in Russia. Might only be 2 or 3 people required to know. Plus have we learnt nothing from history.? It took a whole chain of command to carry out nazi death camps. A lot lot bigger chain then necessary to launch a nuke. Hell the soldiers pressing the nuke button don't even need to know what it is they are actually doing. They could just be told it's war games.

Russia's nuclear doctrine is publicly available. As it must be with various nuclear proliferation treaties.

A first strike is almost an impossibility. There are various different levels of command structure. Putin is just one of those, as is the military.


Different if Russia is under confirmed nuclear attack. Then their perimeter system is activated which is an automatic response of return nuclear attacks against the attacker.


It also sounds like a few international powers have had a word in Putin's ear. The fact that he had to come out recently and say "we haven't gone mad" is pretty telling. And now he is saying himself that Russia will not fire first (as has Shoigu previously).

 

[Dramoth]

Even the oligarchs?

The oligarchs never wanted the Ukraine war to begin with as its destroyed their wealth and livelihood. Have you gotten confused between the oligarchs and the military?

No... they thought it would be a 3 day war like a lot of experts said back in February. They thought the military would overwhelm the Ukrainian forces and then their private "army" of contractors could move in and take over the infrastructure and the natural resources. They thought that once they had snatched Ukraine the west would fold up and do nothing.

They weren't expecting the Russian forces to be ineffective because of decades of corruption and mismanagement. They also weren't expecting the west to slap some serious sanctions on them and seize their assets in the west.

The oligarchs were the ones whispering in Putins ear that they could take Ukraine in a couple of days and they would all get richer.

 

[Dramoth]

Xi has basically laid it out brutally to Putin - no nukes.

China might forget all about the South China sea and look at Siberia as a potential gain if s**t goes sideways in the west.

 

[Seeds]

No... they thought it would be a 3 day war like a lot of experts said back in February. They thought the military would overwhelm the Ukrainian forces and then their private "army" of contractors could move in and take over the infrastructure and the natural resources. They thought that once they had snatched Ukraine the west would fold up and do nothing.

They weren't expecting the Russian forces to be ineffective because of decades of corruption and mismanagement. They also weren't expecting the west to slap some serious sanctions on them and seize their assets in the west.

The oligarchs were the ones whispering in Putins ear that they could take Ukraine in a couple of days and they would all get richer.

What natural resources? All the gas and oil is in Russia. Not Ukraine. Plus the oligarchs have most of their wealth in the west and they knew a war would destroy it. They knew sanctions would come. They weren't as deluded like putin and the military.

 

[Dramoth]

What natural resources? All the gas and oil is in Russia. Not Ukraine. Plus the oligarchs have most of their wealth in the west and they knew a war would destroy it. They knew sanctions would come. They weren't as deluded like putin and the military.

Ukraine has large natural gas deposits in excess of 1 trillion cubic metres. I wonder why the petrochem oligarchs were so hot to have a 3 day way to overthrow Ukraine. Plus taking Ukraine meant that they would have to pay rent for the pipelines running from Russia through Ukraine to Eastern Europe. As well as the gas reserves, Ukraine is called the breadbasket of Europe. It produces most of the grain that is exported to the rest of Europe and to Africa.

But hey... keep believing what you want.

 

[Seeds]

Ukraine has large natural gas deposits in excess of 1 trillion cubic metres. I wonder why the petrochem oligarchs were so hot to have a 3 day way to overthrow Ukraine. Plus taking Ukraine meant that they would have to pay rent for the pipelines running from Russia through Ukraine to Eastern Europe. As well as the gas reserves, Ukraine is called the breadbasket of Europe. It produces most of the grain that is exported to the rest of Europe and to Africa.

But hey... keep believing what you want.

Ok you keep ignoring my points. the oligarchs lived western lifestyles in the west. They never wanted that put in jeopardy. They knew they would be the ones to bear the brunt of sanctions under a war. Even if russia captured ukraine and got access to their resources all the oligarchs would still be worse off. Ukraines gas reserves are still smaller then russias and they are untapped for a reason. They arent very economic. And a low value product like argiculture is hardly a reason for a war.

The majority of global capitalists despise war. they strongly push for peace as they make money during peace time. War destroy global supply chains. I know you want to hate on them but war in ukraine is not even remotely a valid reason. We have less wars now then we did in the past in part because of global capitalism And its influence on world politics. Why do you think there have been so many articles written in the west hoping the oligarchs can convince putin to give up the war?

'War can never be the answer': Russia's wealthy elite speak out against Putin's invasion

As Europe and the U.S. ratchet up sanctions on Russia, some of Vladimir Putin's ultra-wealthy inner circle have spoken out against his invasion of Ukraine.

www.cnbc.com

Can Russian oligarchs influence Putin’s war?

Their muted reactions to sanctions reveal Putin’s power — and isolation.

www.vox.com

Russian Oligarchs Express Concerns Over War In Ukraine, Call For It To End

Russian oligarchs have expressed concerns over Moscow's ongoing invasion of Ukraine as Western countries continue to slap billionaires close to the Kremlin with more sanctions over the war.

www.rferl.org

 

[Dramoth]

Ok you keep ignoring my points. the oligarchs lived western lifestyles in the west. They never wanted that put in jeopardy. They knew they would be the ones to bear the brunt of sanctions under a war. Even if russia captured ukraine and got access to their resources all the oligarchs would still be worse off. Ukraines gas reserves are still smaller then russias and they are untapped for a reason. They arent very economic. And a low value product like argiculture is hardly a reason for a war.

The majority of global capitalists despise war. they strongly push for peace as they make money during peace time. War destroy global supply chains. I know you want to hate on them but war in ukraine is not even remotely a valid reason. We have less wars now then we did in the past in part because of global capitalism And its influence on world politics. Why do you think there have been so many articles written in the west hoping the oligarchs can convince putin to give up the war?

'War can never be the answer': Russia's wealthy elite speak out against Putin's invasion

As Europe and the U.S. ratchet up sanctions on Russia, some of Vladimir Putin's ultra-wealthy inner circle have spoken out against his invasion of Ukraine.

www.cnbc.com

Can Russian oligarchs influence Putin’s war?

Their muted reactions to sanctions reveal Putin’s power — and isolation.

www.vox.com

Russian Oligarchs Express Concerns Over War In Ukraine, Call For It To End

Russian oligarchs have expressed concerns over Moscow's ongoing invasion of Ukraine as Western countries continue to slap billionaires close to the Kremlin with more sanctions over the war.

www.rferl.org

There are two types of Russian oligarchs... the ones living the high life in the west... and those who are still living in Russia whispering in Putins ear and enjoying the power of their political clout. Yes, the ones in the west would have been totally against the war. But the ones still in Russia crazed with power of being able to whisper in Putins ear would have been pushing for the war.

PS: Just noticed your second paragraph... and what a contrived load of crap that is. Global Capitalists make more money in war time than they do in times of peace. They manipulate prices and currency rates. They move money into the military industrial sector and make more money.

Also... I don't hate the Russians... I hate the idiots who thought it was a good idea to invade the country where my ex-wife was born.

 

[Marcel Proust]

China might forget all about the South China sea and look at Siberia as a potential gain if s**t goes sideways in the west.

Seems unlikely.

What's Mongolia - China relations like?

 

[Dramoth]

Seems unlikely.

What's Mongolia - China relations like?

Iffy... same as relations with Tibet.

 

[Zidane98]

Iffy... same as relations with Tibet.

Not quite the same. China hasnt invaded Mongolia.

 

[Dramoth]

Not quite the same. China hasnt invaded Mongolia.

Not recently.

 

[O Grobbecker]

Not quite the same. China hasnt invaded Mongolia.

Fair go, it invaded Tibet 70 years ago with 200:1 odds in it's favour. Give Xi time to take a breath, China only gets a win every 2,000 years.

 

[O Grobbecker]

I think it’s hilarious anyone even thinks he would nuke Ukraine. Ukraine isn’t even his enemy it’s us. I know these are big words but we are fighting a proxy war with Russia in Ukraine. Ukraine has literal combat veterans from all countries applying to join for the fight for UA and on top of that are receiving weapons from NATO. Half the soldiers Putin is fighting are literal NATO soldiers who left service. The war hasn’t been with Ukraine since maybe the first month. Basically what I’m saying is the nuke would definitely not be heading for Ukraine it would probably be headed for the U.S right off the bat because if we are going to start a war over a nuke being fired where else better for it to hit than the people who are going to start a war over a nuke. Just saying.
Show less

[faux outrage] "Hilarious" ! There's nothing hilarious about even a threat to use nuclear weapons.

[calmer reasoned approach] I think you are right, though, the stakes are too high. Even a humiliating retreat and cession of Crimea isn't worth the consequence. Going out on a limb a bit, I also don't think that CCP will have China invade Taiwan in the foreseeable future, it stands to lose too much, its biggest loss being that of control of the Chinese populace, mores shaky now than ever before..

 

[Zidane98]

I think it’s hilarious anyone even thinks he would nuke Ukraine. Ukraine isn’t even his enemy it’s us. I know these are big words but we are fighting a proxy war with Russia in Ukraine. Ukraine has literal combat veterans from all countries applying to join for the fight for UA and on top of that are receiving weapons from NATO. Half the soldiers Putin is fighting are literal NATO soldiers who left service. The war hasn’t been with Ukraine since maybe the first month. Basically what I’m saying is the nuke would definitely not be heading for Ukraine it would probably be headed for the U.S right off the bat because if we are going to start a war over a nuke being fired where else better for it to hit than the people who are going to start a war over a nuke. Just saying.
Show less

The US isn't his enemy either. It is democracy on his front door. Putin wants total control over Russia and it will be hard to stop the inmateat bay in Russia if they see a free and democratic Ukraine thriving next door. Hence Putin's attempts to subjugate Ukraine into once again being a Russian puppet state. Unfortunately for Putin Ukraine is just too big of a nation to control and pretty much the entire democratic world are pushing back against his fascist Ukraine ideology.

Putin's already admitted publicly that Russia only fire nukes if fired upon. And in any case, if he were to let off a nuke south west Russia and his puppet mate Lukashenko likely bear the brunt of radioactive fallout. That scenario would be enough to turn Belarus against Russia which would be a complete disaster for Putin.


Make no mistake this is also very much a Ukraine-Russia conflict. There is a long history of Russian oppression / hegemony of Ukranian culture / nationality. This is just the modern version of it. Ukraine wants to be a democracy with free trade / ties to Europe. Russia wants Ukraine as a puppet state and pretty much back in a USSR era mentality. Ultimately this is what it comes down to.