When can we contend again?

[free tara brown]

You'd certainly hope they didn't think like that. There were options to play younger less experienced players without compromising the entire 'crusade' for a premiership.

Maybe. But I consider it a choice between believing that either the club was completely blindsided about the actual lack of quality of the side, or fully aware of it and pushing on in spite of it. The latter is far more preferable.

It wasn't just the amateur outsiders on BF thou. The media was also asking questions to which Lyon, Bond and co weaselled around with straight faces. Even the ultimate amateur in Brad Johnson has been proved correct with his prediction.

Johnson was late to the party. I had strong reservations about the strategy at the end of 2014, when McPharlin was begged to play on one more season. Playing McPharlin another year signalled that we were going in at full tilt, with no development opportunities afforded to youth.

 

[Outshined]

Finally people are realising this.

You look at the state of the list, and instead of it being nicely balanced with an intention of slow age progression you've ended up with 18-22 year olds who have barely played, absolute spuds in the middle age bracket ala Clarke, then a brigade who should be at their peak but peaked in averageness four years ago ala DeBoer, and then old plodders doing way way too much for their age ala Pav. It is seriously woeful.

That's without mentioning his disruptive, ignorant, and dumb lack of recruiting KPPs especially forwards.

Not sure why Bond seems to have escaped criticism for so long, particularly for the bolded. We've been reliant on Pav as a sole forward target for close to a decade, and in that time we've picked up Houghton and Apeness (might be missing one) as the only possible replacements in the ND. Granted our luck with 1st round picks has been woeful, and a prolonged period at the top of the ladder is going to limit your options draft wise, but come on...surely he's seen this coming for longer than March 2016. The 'best available' policy is at best a luxury when you have a well-balanced list.

Lyon deserves his share of the flak, but there's only so much room for 18-22 yr old flankers when you're in a premiership window, and to his credit he's done a decent job of exposing them, contrary to popular belief.

 

[free at last]

Quick fixes have stuffed us up since day dot. We should do our first full rebuild IMO.

Our current list doesn't warrant IMO....Utilise all the options available to reboot.

 

[Freo]

The statement that frustrates me the most, is when ross says "If you look at the top clubs, such as Hawthorn, they make their youth wait in the 2s for a long period to earn their stripes". But last time I checked, we dont have a star studded midfield, or a couple of power forwards!
I also think that Clarkson has the balls to make the tough calls, an example is dropping Sewell for Langford heading into finals, or playing Brad Hill from day dot. It seems that ross will only give this opportunity if his hand is forced. There also seems to be 1 rule for some, and another rule for others. Has Ibbotson really been worse than Dawson? That missed kick by Dawson in the first couple of minutes set the tone for the day yesterday. Listening to Paul Haselby, he is bewildered how Zac continues to get a game.

Don't agree with much of what Hase has to say. Best to ignore him IMHO

 

[Lach72]

Maybe. But I consider it a choice between believing that either the club was completely blindsided about the actual lack of quality of the side, or fully aware of it and pushing on in spite of it. The latter is far more preferable.

I think maybe it's in between...that last year caught them by surprise and they decided to ride the dragon

 

[ydraw]

Josh Simpson oozes x factor and he may have eventually shown his true colours anyway, but Ross makes statements like 'you play your way in and you play your way out' we all sit and admire him, but on reflection he contradicts himself often.

The Josh Simpson story was a classic example of how bullshit that mantra was. Simpson played a great debut game as the sub, only to be dropped the next week for an injured, out of form Chris Mayne who did nothing.

 

[Grape Bear]

I think maybe it's in between...that last year caught them by surprise and they decided to ride the dragon

In hindsight, though, we could have brought in the youngsters who were showing something a little bit more - Grey for Suban, Weller or Langdon in more games as subs, particularly later in the year when we weren't playing very well. The only issue was that we finished off with tricky games and we brought new kids in when we thought we could carry them.

It's easy to say this now, but maybe a dropped game or two would have been worth getting more games into our kids sooner. However, and I've said this several times, given the culture that Lyon and the playing group created about effort as a core value, it's hard to drop players from a winning team.

 

[Alfonz]

Josh Simpson oozes x factor and he may have eventually shown his true colours anyway, but Ross makes statements like 'you play your way in and you play your way out' we all sit and admire him, but on reflection he contradicts himself often.

I'm still not convinced that Simpson was 100% guaranteed to be a failure. I think the club handled it poorly, starting with getting dropped for no good reason. I don't think it's necessary to be so rigid that everyone needs to fit into a very specific pigeonhole of what a professional footballer should be. Everyone is different, especially someone with Simpson's background. And it wasn't like he was a boozer or druggie, he was just an Aboriginal kid who loved to kick a footy. And he can kick it better than 98% of the players on our list.

 

[Grape Bear]

I feel bad losing Josh's talent as much as the rest of you, but there's making allowances and making allowances. You can only take making exceptions for certain players so far before it builds resentment among those who are held to a different standard. Just can't build a team that way.

I know it's likely that the A-graders like Fyfe probably get a lot more leeway but I suspect that the minimum standard is the same for all of them across the board.

 

[Square Peg]

Lyon has already said if he doesn't deliver a premiership in the life of his current contract he will have failed. The likelihood of him agreeing to a full rebuild IMO is next to zero. Therefore we will be looking to contend ASAP. To do this we have to trade successfully to bring in ready made players. Not draft kids or try for moneyball free agents. Actually trade.
Bond has proven himself capable in some aspects and to his credit did at one point have a list management strategy that was at least defensible, even if many including me disagreed with it. But until this year one thing he has found himself incapable of is trading in ready made players to fill a void. He got Bennell so one hopes this is the sign that he is changing, but one swallow does not make a summer
Therefore the answer to this question of when will we contend again is in my view almost totally predicated on what Bond does. To contend with Lyon still in charge he either has to be moved on or change his ways radically. If Bond is still here on the eve of 2017 season and we have managed to do three fifths of f**k all again at the trade table, we are in for a world of pain, with a coach and football manager that have fundamentally different visions and we won't be contending again for a decade or more until both are gone

 

[Superkoops]

I think maybe it's in between...that last year caught them by surprise and they decided to ride the dragon

You speak a lot of sense. Sadly this attitude of the club has seen them hold back and make minimal list changes. Sylvia and Gumbleton traded in 2013, nothing 2014 and only Bennell in 2015; all makes sad reading. Delisted players added to the Rookie list. More hard calls like delisting Crowley at end of 2015 and Trading out Broughton at the end of 2012 needed to be done over the past 3 years.

 

[Kunna17]

I honestly think we can be competitive again next year, without adding too much to the side. Assuming a healthy list.
Although I do think to really be a very top tier side, we need to gain a few things for the future.
Im unaware on most players contracts - but assuming these 3 (Pav, Johnson + Dawson) retire at the end of the year, I can see us fielding this 22 and being reasonably competitive. Admittebly it does heavily rely on some young guys coming on a bit, and we definately need to give them some game time this year and be prepared for imperfection next year.

FB - Spurr, Collins, Hughes
HB - Mundy, A.Pearce, Mora
C - Hill, Neale, Weller
HF - Langdon, Tabs, Walters
FF - Apeness, Mccarthy**, Yarran
FOL - Sandi, Fyfe, Bennell
INT - Grey, Sheridan, Tucker, Crozier

EMG - Barlow, Griff/Clarke, Ibbotson
Depth/Youth - Sutcliffe, DeBoer, Suban, Hurley, Blakely.
** = assumed we pick him up given seems pretty likely at this stage.
Bolded are those who are yet to really prove they have what it takes to be at least a B grade player. Each deserve some game time this year, and a chance to prove themselves or just gain some experience.


Obviously the side is inexperienced and weak in some areas (Apeness + Tabs both in forward line) but there are some positives.
I would expect to see very good rebound as well as contested ball out of the backline with that side. With Mora, Mundy and Hughes all being fairly tall and good readers of the play, we have good versatility down there.
The Midfield I believe speaks for itself and not much needs to be said, Bennell being in there does add some better footskills/pace to our line up though.
Our forward line is young, and raw. It Could be better and we obviously need to recruit to strengthen it, however, there is a good balance there. It is definately the weakest part of our line-up, however it was in 2013 also. With Walters the only known value there, it is crucial we get games into Tabs, Apeness, Langdon and Yarran this year to give them some experience. We would also rely on Fyfe/Bennell/Weller spending time forward.

Our forward line definately needs work, and an upgrade on Collins would also be very nice. However I do believe he has what it takes to make it, but he is still unproven.

 

[Grape Bear]

Dawson will stay, and he'll need to because there will be no one left to organise the backline while the youngsters are learning the ropes. He's much maligned, but he's a really important cog in that back structure particularly because AP
does not currently have the body development to take the gorilla forwards yet.

 

[wayToGo_]

Ibbotson will not help us move the ball forward. He has shown an elite ability to intercept and read the incoming ball but he is average at best when moving the ball forward. Not skill wise (He's got a decent kick) I think he is just unable to 'see' where the play can open up quickly enough to take advantage. He either goes for the safe option or the long bomb to a contest on the wing (He's hardly alone in that aspect though).

I'm a big fan of Ibbo so may be biased but I actually don't think he is the problem. In fact I think all of our half backs are being assessed unfairly harshly for poor disposal to move the ball forward. The real problem seems to be spread by our players down field to present some suitable options. Our forwards and mids all flood in to the back line, and then when we get the ball in the defensive 50, they all have to quickly run forward. Meanwhile some poor guy left with the ball on half back is watching the backs of all the forwards and mids racing down field and has to do a bit of a dance to wait for something to present or else bomb it long to a pack that eventually forms and hope for the best.

Watching Mayne in the back half the last couple of games really highlighted the issue for me. Quite a few times he's presented on half back to assist, then looked down field for an effective option. Nothing on, so he does a bit of a run to wait for something. On most occasions he hit someone up and we retained possession, and then went down field for a score. But a couple of times he was forced to bomb it and we lost control. Most of the haters on here will get stuck in, saying he is stuffing around. But the reality is keeping control of the ball kicking out of defensive 50 is the difference between creating a scoring opportunity down field and a turnover that results in a score against. How different would our rebound be if our half back looks up and immediately had two or three viable options to kick to?

I'm not saying the backs don't have some responsibility also. I see teams like Adelaide and the Bulldogs doing this rolling run from defence where they get the ball and immediately carry the ball as a pack down field, with a series of quick hand balls whilst moving the ball further in to the centre corridor to provide the ideal spot to attack inside 50 from. Would love to see us do that but with our forwards flooding, it just gets too crowded to do it. And our defenders all seem to stop moving whenever we get the ball. Why aren't they supporting the guy with the ball in hand, lay a block, help run and carry, back him up if he makes an error? Forget the switch (ie spreading behind the ball), take the game on as a pack, at least we'll be moving forward quickly and not give the opposition time to set up their defensive structures.

I'm sure it's a lot harder to execute than I am giving credit... But I think if we have better structures and less flooding we'll open up the field and our rebound will be better both when we run and carry from defence, and when we kick out of defensive 50. Guys like Mora, Hughes, Sheridan and Hill would be great running the ball out of defence as a group, whilst I think Ibbo, Sutty etc would have much improved kicking efficiency if there was better spread by players up field (instead of just behind/alongside them).

We can only do this if we are confident that our defensive structures will hold up with the opposition having far more space inside 50. We need to be able to win one-on-ones and have plenty of interceptors. But more importantly we need pressure down field so the ball doesn't come in cleanly. That space from the centre line to half back needs to be pressure city. If we let the opposition kick inside 50 without any pressure then we won't need to be good at rebounding because the umpire will do it for us when they bring the ball back to the centre square (after a goal against). Kick comes in under pressure, gives us a good chance of an intercept, and then have the space and structure down field to rebound quickly and effectively.

 

[Alfonz]

To contend quickly we somehow have to identify targets who have upside and get them in for peanuts. Adelaide was able to do it with Jenkins, Jacobs, Lynch. Saints found one in Bruce. Sydney did it with Mumford, McGlynn and Kennedy. All Bond and the recruiters seem to do is target big name stars and throw cash at them. And they fail at that.

It's a fine line with recycling true rejects from other clubs that simply don't make it, but it seems our distant past has scared the club away from trying to land value trades. It's not easy, if you look at all the non-star players traded over the years, successes such as those above are probably the exception rather than the norm. I guess our recruiting team just plays it safe/simple and without much creativity. Which would be fine if they could actually identify KPP talent to draft.

As for the post above, great post, but I think a huge amount of blame still has to go to the back line. When we were at our best, we had Duffield, Johnson and McPharlin orchestrating things. They are all basically gone. McPharlin would provide a huge amount of run and create overlap. Along with intercept marks (which flowed on to MJ and Ibbo intercepting, as they could take weaker players). Duffield would set things up. We desperately miss people in the actual backline who can do the things these guys did. I would target someone like Litherland who can run and carry, hopefully he could be one of those value trades.

 

[wayToGo_]

As for the post above, great post, but I think a huge amount of blame still has to go to the back line. When we were at our best, we had Duffield, Johnson and McPharlin orchestrating things. They are all basically gone. McPharlin would provide a huge amount of run and create overlap. Along with intercept marks (which flowed on to MJ and Ibbo intercepting, as they could take weaker players). Duffield would set things up. We desperately miss people in the actual backline who can do the things these guys did. I would target someone like Litherland who can run and carry, hopefully he could be one of those value trades.

Don't disagree our back line has some major issues. I'm still not convinced it would be fixed with different personnel though. Luke and Duff were extremely reliable kicks. But so is Hill normally, and he has been terrible so far this season. And Johnson has looked well below his poised best also. It just seems it doesn't matter who we put in there, they just look well below ordinary. I can't get my head around our skills deteriorating that much so quickly, especially when we've been working on them as a focus. Perhaps leadership is more the thing we are missing from McPharlin's retirement? It doesn't appear as though anyone is coordinating our defence so maybe that's the biggest factor? Which then in turn leads to confidence, that we are clearly missing. None of our players seem to know what to do once they get the ball, so not that surprising they look almost afraid to have possession.

Does anyone know who the leader of our defence currently is? The fact that I can't really think who it might be is a bit worrying. Spurr? Dawson? Neither strike me as the coordinating our defensive structures types.

 

[TheMcManusNose]

The Josh Simpson story was a classic example of how bullshit that mantra was. Simpson played a great debut game as the sub, only to be dropped the next week for an injured, out of form Chris Mayne who did nothing.

I think this narrative has gotten a bit out of hand.

A perfectly logical alternative explanation is; Crozier was dropped for Mayne, Simpson was dropped for Fyfe. I presume no one wants to make an argument that Simpson should have played over Fyfe...

Obviously neither decision was wholly independent of the other. However, in the context that Mayne at the time was only 4 games removed from his excellent 2013, and that all indications are that the club (and Ross) viewed Simpson as a mid and Crozier as a forward... I think the alternate explanation is more logical.

Could the club have handled it better? Sure, I think so. But let's not start twisting past events so they suit our particular narrative.

 

[Unique Name]

I'm a big fan of Ibbo so may be biased but I actually don't think he is the problem. In fact I think all of our half backs are being assessed unfairly harshly for poor disposal to move the ball forward. The real problem seems to be spread by our players down field to present some suitable options. Our forwards and mids all flood in to the back line, and then when we get the ball in the defensive 50, they all have to quickly run forward. Meanwhile some poor guy left with the ball on half back is watching the backs of all the forwards and mids racing down field and has to do a bit of a dance to wait for something to present or else bomb it long to a pack that eventually forms and hope for the best.

Watching Mayne in the back half the last couple of games really highlighted the issue for me. Quite a few times he's presented on half back to assist, then looked down field for an effective option. Nothing on, so he does a bit of a run to wait for something. On most occasions he hit someone up and we retained possession, and then went down field for a score. But a couple of times he was forced to bomb it and we lost control. Most of the haters on here will get stuck in, saying he is stuffing around. But the reality is keeping control of the ball kicking out of defensive 50 is the difference between creating a scoring opportunity down field and a turnover that results in a score against. How different would our rebound be if our half back looks up and immediately had two or three viable options to kick to?

I'm not saying the backs don't have some responsibility also. I see teams like Adelaide and the Bulldogs doing this rolling run from defence where they get the ball and immediately carry the ball as a pack down field, with a series of quick hand balls whilst moving the ball further in to the centre corridor to provide the ideal spot to attack inside 50 from. Would love to see us do that but with our forwards flooding, it just gets too crowded to do it. And our defenders all seem to stop moving whenever we get the ball. Why aren't they supporting the guy with the ball in hand, lay a block, help run and carry, back him up if he makes an error? Forget the switch (ie spreading behind the ball), take the game on as a pack, at least we'll be moving forward quickly and not give the opposition time to set up their defensive structures.

I'm sure it's a lot harder to execute than I am giving credit... But I think if we have better structures and less flooding we'll open up the field and our rebound will be better both when we run and carry from defence, and when we kick out of defensive 50. Guys like Mora, Hughes, Sheridan and Hill would be great running the ball out of defence as a group, whilst I think Ibbo, Sutty etc would have much improved kicking efficiency if there was better spread by players up field (instead of just behind/alongside them).

We can only do this if we are confident that our defensive structures will hold up with the opposition having far more space inside 50. We need to be able to win one-on-ones and have plenty of interceptors. But more importantly we need pressure down field so the ball doesn't come in cleanly. That space from the centre line to half back needs to be pressure city. If we let the opposition kick inside 50 without any pressure then we won't need to be good at rebounding because the umpire will do it for us when they bring the ball back to the centre square (after a goal against). Kick comes in under pressure, gives us a good chance of an intercept, and then have the space and structure down field to rebound quickly and effectively.

Agreed, it's seems like a full structure breakdown. Not much is working so it's probably unfair of me to blame the backline. I used to be able to see the changes that Ross made after qtr/half time breaks. Not so much this season.

On Ibbo, even last year when we were doing well I would hardly say he was great at moving the ball forward. Great interceptor, average 1on1 defender, well skilled but slow on seeing the play open up.

 

[wayToGo_]

On Ibbo, even last year when we were doing well I would hardly say he was great at moving the ball forward. Great interceptor, average 1on1 defender, well skilled but slow on seeing the play open up.

Yeah I know a lot of people have that pov about Ibbo and I kind of know why because he does look a bit slow to make decisions at times but Champion Data revealed this about him from last year:

"His reading of the play defines him, rating elite for intercept marks and intercept possessions, launching six more scores from defensive 50 than any other Docker. His kicking improved, recording an above average kick rating, with his delivery into the forward 50 a strength, recording the equal 13th best kick rating of the top 170. Overall, his kicking retention rate was the 17th best of the top 100 for kicks"

In a nutshell he was our best attacking defender last year. That's why he was in the AA squad I suspect. But this year he's looked nothing close to that, it can't just be about him losing form. The good news (I think) is we have Hughes and Morabito to come in who imo are similar attacking defenders but they run and carry vs Ibbo being more of a kicking attacker. I honestly believe if we can change and find the right structures to support attacking rebounds we do have the personnel available to be very quick and very damaging from half back.

 

[Fat Nyfe]

I see no reason why we can't next year.

We still have a very strong midfield group who apart from Mundy are either young (Neale, Weller) or in a prime age group (Hill, Fyfe).

Add a fully recovered Fyfe and Bennell. Morabito is still a question mark but would be a bonus.

We are a pretty good chance of aquiring a young gun KPF in McCarthy.

There are still question marks about our forward group and key backs, but no more so then the last few years when we were top 4.

I think the first 5 rounds have shown us our biggest need right now is quality ball users coming off half back. We really need Ibbottson back in form and we need to either recruit or unearth a few others.

 

[Blueboy75]

You'll get McCarthy that's just about a given surely that deal will get done,depends on what you have to give up for him? I wonder how many of the senior boys will be at the Dockers next season/year?

 

[salim malik]

I think this narrative has gotten a bit out of hand.

A perfectly logical alternative explanation is; Crozier was dropped for Mayne, Simpson was dropped for Fyfe. I presume no one wants to make an argument that Simpson should have played over Fyfe...

Obviously neither decision was wholly independent of the other. However, in the context that Mayne at the time was only 4 games removed from his excellent 2013, and that all indications are that the club (and Ross) viewed Simpson as a mid and Crozier as a forward... I think the alternate explanation is more logical.

Could the club have handled it better? Sure, I think so. But let's not start twisting past events so they suit our particular narrative.

Plus if Josh had of got on the plane we wouldn't be having this conversation.

 

[Inveigh Slang]

If we are gonna bottom out you might as well do it properly and rebuild the list.

 

[Kram]

Blaming anyone on Simpson not making it other than the actual guy himself is comical.

 

[Stuart88]

Dawson will stay, and he'll need to because there will be no one left to organise the backline while the youngsters are learning the ropes. He's much maligned, but he's a really important cog in that back structure particularly because AP
does not currently have the body development to take the gorilla forwards yet.

Dawson will stay because he has an incriminating photo of Ross