When will the Carlton FC Arrive?

[Chief]

Part 2 of this thread is here:

When will the Carlton FC Arrive? Part 2

PART 1 of this thread is here: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/when-will-the-carlton-fc-arrive.1259822/ ============= We're all thinking it. We're watching this story play out for the 4th time in the last 20 years and it's the same story every time. They have a great list of exciting...

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[Noidnadroj]

One of us will be right.

Haha …you wish ….the way he prepares himself the most likely scenario is he won’t be playing and Carlton won’t be playing finals.


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[Robertio]

Haha …you wish ….the way he prepares himself the most likely scenario is he won’t be playing and Carlton won’t be playing finals.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

You wish mate, we are coming(again).

 

[Ambrosia]

What? Like a normal home and away season? Must be terrible. Two of your interstate games have been against bottom four sides, one of them was neutral territory.
Let me see, would I rather play 2 games against Freo, who are on 8 wins and only out of the 8 on percentage? Or two games against North, who have 3 wins and are in last place?
Tough call.

Just accept that you've had a soft draw. It happens. It's not your fault. But don't go acting like you're an amazingly well 'rebuilt' team due to 5 wins against bottom 4 sides.
You are 3-8 against the rest of the comp.

The other part of your draw was that you got some of those easier teams earlier in the season, which helps you bank some wins and percentage, which can build confidence and momentum. You've already played the bottom 4 sides 6 times, including the bottom side twice. We've played the bottom 4 sides 4 times and are yet to face the bottom team. Now we come against them when they've won 2 and drawn 1 from their last 7 games, with an average losing margin of 22pts, compared to their earlier season when they won 1 from 10 and were losing by an average of 53pts.

So, back to the question. Would I swap our draw for yours? Absolutely.

It’s normal for a Victorian team to play 10 games outside of Melbourne? Carlton are set to play 5.

Freo in Melbourne is a gimme. You trying to pass off a double up against them on your home deck as anything but a huge win is laughable.

I have no issues with agreeing that Essendon has a soft draw in terms of double ups. Essendon having a soft draw doesn’t mean Carlton haven’t had one either.

 

[btdg]

It’s normal for a Victorian team to play 10 games outside of Melbourne? Carlton are set to play 5.

Freo in Melbourne is a gimme. You trying to pass off a double up against them on your home deck as anything but a huge win is laughable.

I have no issues with agreeing that Essendon has a soft draw in terms of double ups. Essendon having a soft draw doesn’t mean Carlton haven’t had one either.

Carlton's had a reasonably soft draw and should have done better with it.

Bit unlucky in two ways:
- we copped Richmond and Collingwood in round 1 and 2, when thy were probably at their best for the year, and when we were severely underdone
- in the last lockdown we had our 'cupcake' home game against a depleted West Coast team turned into a nightmare 3-week stint in Sydney (playing Sydney and GWS either side, this got moved, and the players had a shocker).

Those two stretches killed our season. The former put us on the back foot and under pressure and both would be winnable now. The latter: 3 games against teams in the 7-11 range in consecutive weeks, 3 straight losses.

We've been lucky in other areas too: getting a second home game vs Freo, and good timing to play all of Port, Brisbane and Geelong in Melbourne (if we were serious we should have won at least one, if not two of those).

Based on the draw, all things being equal, I think Carlton (if we had a good year instead of a bad one) 'should' have 4 extra wins and 1 extra loss (Freo). Right now that would be enough to put us in 7th spot, probably with a finals appearance sewn up, but also probbaly not likely to get above Sydney or West Coast.

We didn't live up to expectations (as this thread shows) and will probably end up 10th or 11th. There's reasons, but I do think we underperformed our talent (and when you throw in the Coleman medallist, Walsh leaping into Brownlow contention, Weitering at full back - that's a pretty strong foundation for a team that is going to miss finals). Weirdly, I think most people pre-season thought we would be 10th-11th, and its just hte drop-off in Richmond at St Kilda that makes it feel more 'feasible'.

 

[Ambrosia]

Carlton's had a reasonably soft draw and should have done better with it.

Bit unlucky in two ways:
- we copped Richmond and Collingwood in round 1 and 2, when thy were probably at their best for the year, and when we were severely underdone
- in the last lockdown we had our 'cupcake' home game against a depleted West Coast team turned into a nightmare 3-week stint in Sydney (playing Sydney and GWS either side, this got moved, and the players had a shocker).

Those two stretches killed our season. The former put us on the back foot and under pressure and both would be winnable now. The latter: 3 games against teams in the 7-11 range in consecutive weeks, 3 straight losses.

We've been lucky in other areas too: getting a second home game vs Freo, and good timing to play all of Port, Brisbane and Geelong in Melbourne (if we were serious we should have won at least one, if not two of those).

Based on the draw, all things being equal, I think Carlton (if we had a good year instead of a bad one) 'should' have 4 extra wins and 1 extra loss (Freo). Right now that would be enough to put us in 7th spot, probably with a finals appearance sewn up, but also probbaly not likely to get above Sydney or West Coast.

We didn't live up to expectations (as this thread shows) and will probably end up 10th or 11th. There's reasons, but I do think we underperformed our talent (and when you throw in the Coleman medallist, Walsh leaping into Brownlow contention, Weitering at full back - that's a pretty strong foundation for a team that is going to miss finals). Weirdly, I think most people pre-season thought we would be 10th-11th, and its just hte drop-off in Richmond at St Kilda that makes it feel more 'feasible'.

I agree with everything listed above.

I personally think the AFL needs to scrap the method of creating the draw based on where you finish the year prior.

Surely it would be easy to implement a rolling 36 round draw, keep season at 22 games but over a 36 round period have everyone play each other twice. Obviously you’d have some oddities with season opener and ANZAC game but you could shuffle games in the season to solve it.

 

[owen87]

Surely it would be easy to implement a rolling 36 round draw, keep season at 22 games but over a 36 round period have everyone play each other twice. Obviously you’d have some oddities with season opener and ANZAC game but you could shuffle games in the season to solve it.

wut?

 

[Juddernaut08]

I agree with everything listed above.

I personally think the AFL needs to scrap the method of creating the draw based on where you finish the year prior.

Surely it would be easy to implement a rolling 36 round draw, keep season at 22 games but over a 36 round period have everyone play each other twice. Obviously you’d have some oddities with season opener and ANZAC game but you could shuffle games in the season to solve it.

I like this idea. Lesser minds will find it confusing though.

wut?

Exhibit A

 

[Ambrosia]

wut?

Yeah poorly worded mumbling mess and it’d be 34 rounds not 36.

I’ll try again:

Have it so every team roughly plays each other twice over the span of 34 weeks of football even though it would be across multiple seasons.

 

[owen87]

across multiple seasons.

So continuing having an imbalanced draw.... solves not a lot

 

[Ambrosia]

So continuing having an imbalanced draw.... solves not a lot

Well at least there’d be a fair logic to it which would be much easier pill to swallow then seemingly random AFL decisions.

The draw will always be imbalanced until they go to a 34 round season which I wouldn’t be opposed to mind you.

 

[Juddernaut08]

Well at least there’d be a fair logic to it which would be much easier pill to swallow then seemingly random AFL decisions.

The draw will always be imbalanced until they go to a 34 round season which I wouldn’t be opposed to mind you.

Footy for most of the year, perfect for fans!

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

It’s normal for a Victorian team to play 10 games outside of Melbourne? Carlton are set to play 5.

Freo in Melbourne is a gimme. You trying to pass off a double up against them on your home deck as anything but a huge win is laughable.

I have no issues with agreeing that Essendon has a soft draw in terms of double ups. Essendon having a soft draw doesn’t mean Carlton haven’t had one either.

See I never actually claimed that Carlton haven't had a soft draw. My original statement was that Ess have had an EASIER draw. I stand by that.

Let's change '10 games outside of Melbourne' to 9 interstate games. Playing Geelong in Geelong for the first time in however long is not cause to claim a 'harder' draw. 9 interstate games is a little higher than normal for an average season. 6-7 is closer to the norm, depending on whether a side gets Hawks or North in Tassie.
There's also an * next to a lot of 'interstate' games this year (and last) due to COVID. It's not fly in, fly out like in a normal year. The travel isn't as taxing physically, due to the mini hubs, and a number of those 'interstate' games are not home ground advantage for your opposition. It's two teams from other states playing a neutral venue that you might get 2-3 games in a row at, plus a chance to train there a few times.

No games are gimme for Carlton and Freo have beaten Pies at Docklands this year, so it's not like they're completely incapable of winning in VIC, they just don't play a lot of games here. I'd still rather 2 games against the bottom side vs 2 against a team pushing for the 8, regardless of where they're played. I'd take 2 games against North in Tassie over 2 against Freo in Melb.

I would still swap your draw with ours, given the chance. Would you swap for Carlton's?

 

[Ambrosia]

See I never actually claimed that Carlton haven't had a soft draw. My original statement was that Ess have had an EASIER draw. I stand by that.

Let's change '10 games outside of Melbourne' to 9 interstate games. Playing Geelong in Geelong for the first time in however long is not cause to claim a 'harder' draw. 9 interstate games is a little higher than normal for an average season. 6-7 is closer to the norm, depending on whether a side gets Hawks or North in Tassie.
There's also an * next to a lot of 'interstate' games this year (and last) due to COVID. It's not fly in, fly out like in a normal year. The travel isn't as taxing physically, due to the mini hubs, and a number of those 'interstate' games are not home ground advantage for your opposition. It's two teams from other states playing a neutral venue that you might get 2-3 games in a row at, plus a chance to train there a few times.

No games are gimme for Carlton and Freo have beaten Pies at Docklands this year, so it's not like they're completely incapable of winning in VIC, they just don't play a lot of games here. I'd still rather 2 games against the bottom side vs 2 against a team pushing for the 8, regardless of where they're played. I'd take 2 games against North in Tassie over 2 against Freo in Melb.

I would still swap your draw with ours, given the chance. Would you swap for Carlton's?
View attachment 1182240 View attachment 1182243

Freo have won 3 games in Melbourne the past 4 years. It’s very much a gimme and the same as playing a bottom 4 team.

Thanks for mentioning Geelong in Geelong that brings us to 11 games out of Melbourne for the year. If you were Carlton where would you rather play Geelong and Hawthorn? GMHBA stadium and Launceston or at the MCG and Marvel? How is not a harder draw to have to play those teams there?

You gloss over Essendon playing sides at less advantageous grounds yet point Carlton having to play Richmond in round 1 as some huge negative to Carlton’s draw.

I think you’re really discounting the impact having to hub interstate has on the players. btdg pointed it out a reason Carlton lost 3 winnable games in row.

As you’ve listed before the double ups are:

Carlton: Freo/GWS/Pies/Suns/Port

Essendon: Hawks/North/Pies/Swans/GWS

Looking up these double you need to add the context of Essendon having to play the Swans and GWS at a neutral venue as our “home” games whilst Carlton get to pick up an extra home game against Freo who I’ve established are bottom 4 quality in Melbourne.

Taking all that into account yes I definitely would swap Essendon’s draw for Cartons.

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

Freo have won 3 games in Melbourne the past 4 years. It’s very much a gimme and the same as playing a bottom 4 team.

Thanks for mentioning Geelong in Geelong that brings us to 11 games out of Melbourne for the year. If you were Carlton where would you rather play Geelong and Hawthorn? GMHBA stadium and Launceston or at the MCG and Marvel? How is not a harder draw to have to play those teams there?

You gloss over Essendon playing sides at less advantageous grounds yet point Carlton having to play Richmond in round 1 as some huge negative to Carlton’s draw.

I think you’re really discounting the impact having to hub interstate has on the players. btdg pointed it out a reason Carlton lost 3 winnable games in row.

As you’ve listed before the double ups are:

Carlton: Freo/GWS/Pies/Suns/Port

Essendon: Hawks/North/Pies/Swans/GWS

Looking up these double you need to add the context of Essendon having to play the Swans and GWS at a neutral venue as our “home” games whilst Carlton get to pick up an extra home game against Freo who I’ve established are bottom 4 quality in Melbourne.

Taking all that into account yes I definitely would swap Essendon’s draw for Cartons.

Are you just making stuff up now?
Where are you getting 11 from? I count 9 interstate games.
I don't have an issue playing Geelong at GMHBA. We beat them there last year. Also don't have an issue playing Freo in Perth. Beat them the last two times over there too.

Where did I mention Richmond in round 1?

 

[Ambrosia]

Are you just making stuff up now?
Where are you getting 11 from? I count 9 interstate games.
I don't have an issue playing Geelong at GMHBA. We beat them there last year. Also don't have an issue playing Freo in Perth. Beat them the last two times over there too.

Where did I mention Richmond in round 1?

We are set to play GWS and Sydney at Metricon. Brings the 9 you count up to 11.

Ok so we’ll just roll with playing Geelong at GHMBA as being the same as playing them at the G?

Apologies mixing posts. Swap that point with complaining about when each side plays North.

 

[Pinnell]

Essendon have played hawks and north twice yeh? Nice leg up..

 

[JayJ20]

Are you just making stuff up now?
Where are you getting 11 from? I count 9 interstate games.
I don't have an issue playing Geelong at GMHBA. We beat them there last year. Also don't have an issue playing Freo in Perth. Beat them the last two times over there too.

Where did I mention Richmond in round 1?

Port in Adelaide
Brisbane Gabba
Sydney SCG
GWS Giants stadium
West Coast Optus Stadium
Richmond Optus Stadium - Neutral game
Hawthorn Launceston
North Metricon - Neutral game
GWS Metricon - Neutral game
Sydney Metricon - Neutral game
Gold Coast Metricon

That's 11. + Geelong at GMHBA which makes it 12 away games. Only host Adelaide and Fremantle as true home ground advantage games.

Meanwhile Carlton have left Melbourne 4 times this year with only one more away game fixtured to make it 5 away games for the year if everything goes as planned.

 

[Ambrosia]

Essendon have played hawks and north twice yeh? Nice leg up..

Don’t really see it as any different to having the Suns twice and Freo twice in Melbourne for Carlton.

 

[Pinnell]

Don’t really see it as any different to having the Suns twice and Freo twice in Melbourne for Carlton.

Freo outside the 8 via % (10th) , Gold Coast 14th

Hawthorn 17th, North 18th.

Says it all

 

[Ambrosia]

Freo outside the 8 via % (10th) , Gold Coast 14th

Hawthorn 17th, North 18th.

Says it all

No it doesn’t.

Freo have won 3 games in Melbourne in the past 4 years.

Carlton’s draw is soft as butter it’s laughable that they are pointing to Essendon and singling out the draw as to why they are behind.

 

[Pinnell]

No it doesn’t.

Freo have won 3 games in Melbourne in the past 4 years.

Carlton’s draw is soft as butter it’s laughable that they are pointing to Essendon and singling out the draw as to why they are behind.

 

[Juddernaut08]

Essendon have played hawks and north twice yeh? Nice leg up..

Nekminnit, we lose to North

 

[Soapy V]

Rebuilds are never linear and take longer than people expect.

We will now have major changes to Football Department which is needed. I expect

Massive change in culture and standards is required
New Coaches
New Development Structure

Review will be finished soon and identify issues which will be addressed quickly as many possible scenarios have been assessed. Many possible coaches and key people have been approached

Core of list is very good and there will be a refresh of the list with 8-10 changes at years end. We are chasing some good KPP's from other clubs

Hasn't been a great year and things need to be fixed. Importantly we are strong off field and have a lot of young talent. Any side with a core of Weitering Cripps Walsh McKay Charlie Stocker Williams Saad Silvagni Docherty TDK isn't far away.

Need to finish off 2021 well and then a big off season begins

 

[Juddernaut08]

Rebuilds are never linear and take longer than people expect.

We will now have major changes to Football Department which is needed. I expect

Massive change in culture and standards is required
New Coaches
New Development Structure

Review will be finished soon and identify issues which will be addressed quickly as many possible scenarios have been assessed. Many possible coaches and key people have been approached

Core of list is very good and there will be a refresh of the list with 8-10 changes at years end. We are chasing some good KPP's from other clubs

Hasn't been a great year and things need to be fixed. Importantly we are strong off field and have a lot of young talent. Any side with a core of Weitering Cripps Walsh McKay Charlie Stocker Williams Saad Silvagni Docherty TDK isn't far away.

Need to finish off 2021 well and then a big off season begins

Rebuilds are never linear and take longer than people expect.

We will now have major changes to Football Department which is needed. I expect

Massive change in culture and standards is required
New Coaches
New Development Structure

Review will be finished soon and identify issues which will be addressed quickly as many possible scenarios have been assessed. Many possible coaches and key people have been approached

Core of list is very good and there will be a refresh of the list with 8-10 changes at years end. We are chasing some good KPP's from other clubs

Hasn't been a great year and things need to be fixed. Importantly we are strong off field and have a lot of young talent. Any side with a core of Weitering Cripps Walsh McKay Charlie Stocker Williams Saad Silvagni Docherty TDK isn't far away.

Need to finish off 2021 well and then a big off season begins

Well said. Unlikely we make finals, which sucks.

But I think we are most similar to Melbourne.

They had so much talent and disappointed before their resurgence this year.

 

[La Dispute]

No it doesn’t.

Freo have won 3 games in Melbourne in the past 4 years.

Carlton’s draw is soft as butter it’s laughable that they are pointing to Essendon and singling out the draw as to why they are behind.

It’s less a soft draw, and more playing teams at the wrong times v playing teams when they are playing poorly.

We’d have loved to play Richmond a month ago, or had our first match against Collingwood a few more rounds into the season when they fell off a cliff.

Fremantle lose to us in Perth every year as well, so it’s not as though playing in Melbourne made a massive difference. We just have the wood over them in general despite what the ladder suggests. They’ve also had a soft draw (so far), having played the Hawks twice.

Same as Essendon really. They’re higher on the ladder currently, but we beat them pretty comfortably this year and by bees dick last year. Don’t think you can read too much into a couple of extra wins - the mid-section of the ladder is volatile at the moment.