When Will We Be Ready?

[santa claws]

Just a quick question or two for all.

1/ When do people think we are a REALISTIC chance to, firstly make finals with a reasonably competetive team that has the potential to go on and become a top 4 side?

I phrase it this way because i think most of us would agree it is possible to make finals with an ordinary team and slip back into obscurity for awhile.

2/ When do people think we will be a realistic chance for a flag. I suppose that means when we become a genuine top 4 side.

3/ How many players on average do people think we will turn over the next 3 yrs including rookies.

For me the answer to 1 is 2014. It may happen in 2013.

for me the answer to 2 is 2016 again im being realistic and maybe a little conservative.

for me the answer to 3 is 6. again that is being conservative as i could do 8 easily.

I ask these questions because we all keep on talking about when our window will open if it opens, assuming we have recruited well.

To determine or have some sort of idea where the list will be at or if its going to be good enough in 2014, for me the predicted time when we make finals, you sort of have to project forward.

i suppose the first thing to ask is,
Who is likely to still be there?
How old are/will the players be who are still there ?
How many games do/will they have?
What are the likely weaknesses going to be in regard development times, quality and list structure?

If 2014 is the yr we make finals and we have two more buliding and development yrs ahead of us, not unrealistic imo. The first thing to ask is.
Who is most likely to not be there?
If 6 delistings a yr is close to the mark including rookies, again thats being conservative. That means on average 6 delistings this yr 6 in 2012 and 6 in 2013 those likely to go are. and i base it on age performance and strengths weakness in their games.along with list needs.it may pan out that we do 6 this yr 8 te yr after and less in 2013.its just a guide with a lot of assumption.

Newman -age will be 32.
Tuck - age will be 33.
Miller - age and quality will be 31.
Hicks - gone
Hislop - gone
Westhoff - gone
Taylor - gone.
Farmer - below standard.
white - below standard.
Moore - age will be 30 and injury.
King - age 30 and lack of quality.
Mcguane - below standard.
Nason - to small very ordinary probably already gone.
Webberley - very ordinary and likely one of 4 uncontracted on list proper that will go this yr

To cut it short the remaining 4 to come from Jackson, Morton, Graham, Thursfield,

so that leaves 27 players to form the core as of the end of 2014..
they are in position, their age in 2014, and based on 15 games per player per yr their guestimated games played on a conservative basis by the end of 2014.

sml / med backs
Batchelor age 22 games 60.
Deledio 27/195.
Dea 23/ 50.
O'rielly 26/ 50.
Jakobi 23/ under 50 games.
Houli 26/95 imo hes not a backman.

tall backs

Rance 25/100
Grimes 23/50
Post 25/65
Gourdis 25/ under 50 games.

mids
conca 22/65
martin 23/90
helbig 22/ 50
nahas 27/100
cotchin 24/110
foley 29/150
grigg 26/110
contin 23/ under 50 games
edwards 26/135

sml/med forwards
macdonald 22/ under 50 games.
connors 26/70

tall forwards

astbury 23/70
riewoldt 26/135
griffiths 23/55
vickery 24/90

rucks

derickx 27/45
browne 24/57

now this may be the 27 players who form the core for 2014 obviously its all only presumtion but what i hopefully think is reasonable presumption. of course some i have tipped to go may stay and some i have tipped to stay may go.to me that core is not a top 4 core and there are a terrible lot in it that are unproven.

ithink what it does show, is to make finals in 2014 and definately be on the rise we will have to recruit and importantly trade very well indeed.it shows nearly all areas need work apart from maybe the sml/med backs and even then id be looking for another of quality.
i think it shows also that there is room for mature players to be taken as well. in 2014 the oldest three players we may have is foley 29, deledio 27 and nahas 27.

so with a conservative 18 players including rookies being turned over in the next 3 nd/trade periods what are we looking at to replace those 18 players.

well by assuming we wont make finals until 2014 we will have top 10 picks in 2012 2013.
we have picks.
2011 - 14 36 54 and 72 plus 2 live rookie picks. only three rookies dropped, heslin to come on and newman to the vet list. must admit im not sure if we must put contin miller and orielly on the list proper after two yrs if we wish to keep them.
now we may well trade or use late picks on mature types we may try and do a houli and get a player in the psd. i can think of two players id like to give a chance to carnell at coburg and wilson of south fremantle/wce. ones a mid ones a ff. we will probably chase a ruckman so its hard to say what will happen this yr.
what i do exppect is if we use 14 and 36 we get at the least two good to very good players. if we trade out of one of those picks i still expect a good to very good player.

2012 - supposed super draft and definately the yr to heavily participate in the nd.

assuming a finish between 12th and 9th that will be a pick betwen 7 and 10, a second rounder between 25 and 28, third rnd 43 and 46, and 4th rnd between 61 and 64.
we can also look at useing the tambling pick at the start of the second rnd. thats 5 nd picks and if it runs deep maybe even another.

assuming we miss the 8 in 2013 picks will be similar to 2012.

again we dont have any idea on what trades we will do so i can only go by what i can reasonably assume will be our nd picks if we miss the 8 and try to be consevative with my assumptions.

where will all these picks be at in the 2014 season. will we get enough quality and enough depth to play finals in 2014 solely from the nd . every young pick unless we get a martin or deledio will do an apprenticship and have less than 50 games to their names.
what talls we take will generally take 3 or 4 yrs to have a decent impact if then.
again if we want to play finals by 2014 we will have to take some mature types there is so much work that needs to be done its not funny.

i know people will get into me for this post but all im trying to do is project forward and envision within reason where the list will be at.

a lot of assuming but i suppose thats what you have to do if you want to prject 3 yrs down the track.

finally i hope people can make sense of what im trying to say here. i think ive been conservative and reasonable with my assumtions i know people will disagree with who should go or who is likely, at the end of the day i chose 18, i think it is not enough but there you go.

 

[Bojangles17]

if we fail to make the finals once AGAIN and I dont mean just limp in either then id throw my full support behind a raft of sackings. Provided we recruit wisely and fill a couple of holes that have emerged as in a decent ruck option , another defender and a clever mid size forward capable of 40+ we will be able to take that next step and win the desired 13 or more games...just get the recruiting right

 

[NZ_Tiger]

Didn't digest all of it but I mostly agree. We still have to turn over a lot of our list in the next few years to make up for the drafting disasters in the past. For me we're still about 2 years away from finals and and another 2 before we make any impact.

The Look of your list is full of players that MIGHT make it. Which is unfortunately where we are at.

 

[Madtiger2006]

2012-finals
2013-top 4

 

[nut]

we will make the eight next season....

 

[jstone]

we will make the eight next season....

I think we will get there next season. then 2013-14 push for better placings. Its a must that we make the finals from next season onwards!

 

[richolovesgoal]

Make finals next year, probably won't make it far but experience will be invaluable(Essendon this year)

Better again 2013, but not a real contender (ala Carlton this year)

2014-17 should be our prime and when we challenge for Premierships (Collingwood, Geelong, Brisbane era's... hopefully)

 

[a_fighting_fury]

1. 2012
2. 2014

 

[NQTIGER]

2012-finals
2013-top 4

we will make the eight next season....

I think we will get there next season. then 2013-14 push for better placings. Its a must that we make the finals from next season onwards!

Make finals next year, probably won't make it far but experience will be invaluable(Essendon this year)

Better again 2013, but not a real contender (ala Carlton this year)

2014-17 should be our prime and when we challenge for Premierships (Collingwood, Geelong, Brisbane era's... hopefully)

1. 2012
2. 2014

carefull all those predictions may come back to haunt...........

 

[santa claws]

2012-finals
2013-top 4

can i ask mad one, if we make the 8 next yr do you think it sustainable.
let me also ask over the next 3 trade/draft periods how many players including rookies do you think will be delisted traded and who they are likely to be.

 

[folester41]

i think we will just miss finals next year, and make the finals in 2013 (how appropriate)

and then id expect top 4 1 or 2 seasons after that depending on injuries, recruitment, gameplan etc.

wouldnt expect a flag until 2015 the earliest, even then i think its highly unlikely unless we draft and trade amazingly and our players develop to their full potential.

 

[In the Jungle]

2012-finals
2013-top 4

yep, totally agree; with the inclusion of an established ruck, ready to go mid , perhaps a def. Also natural progress, with a 2nd or 3rd preseason into some guys like martin cotchin foley batch conca vickery etc etc no jack injuries hardwick better in 3rd year coaching with better support around him should see us improve from 8.5 to 11-12 wins next year

 

[MightyTiger]

can i ask mad one, if we make the 8 next yr do you think it sustainable.
let me also ask over the next 3 trade/draft periods how many players including rookies do you think will be delisted traded and who they are likely to be.

The thing is though santa is that the majority that will be traded/delisted aren't ones that are in our 22, sure we have a few fringes such as Jackson, White Edwards etc who, over time will be replaced, and then you have a couple of older ones such as Newman, Moore (Hopefully he returns), Tuck etc who will retire in the next couple of years but other then that the majority of our best 22 are kids in which the majority have already shown they have some very good AFL qualities and just need some nurturing and time to develop.

 

[Dustin Credible]

A well constructed post Santa

Q1.) 2013
Q2.) 2016
Q3.) sounds about right. The big question is when is the best time to move on Newman/Moore/Tuck/Miller, whilst maintaining momentum up the ladder.

 

[tigerfan1961]

can i ask mad one, if we make the 8 next yr do you think it sustainable.
let me also ask over the next 3 trade/draft periods how many players including rookies do you think will be delisted traded and who they are likely to be.

Actually shocked at some of your comments there Santa. Optimism is not usually your forte!! Sustianed finals appearances starting in 2 years, I hope you are right. I am unsure about that but I can accept that it is a possibility, depends on list additions between now and then. Saying that, I have faith in FJ and his team, and we will get better players, no doubt.

I think that your average delistings of 6 a season is a little off. As you said, next year is meant to be a very good draft and with the Compo pick hopefully still in our hands, I can see at least 8 changes next year, as they will want to grab as much of the young talent available as they can. This year, we have already announced 3 rookie delistings, to go with Taylor who we all assume is already gone.

Nason also sounds like he is gone (wants to return to Adelaide) , and the jungle drums are saying others will go too. We will probably trade some out to get new players in. I think 8-9 changes will be made this year, but that depends on whether we are trading in any players, such as Ivan Maric, which sounds a certainty.

We keep hearing about Blair Hartley scouring other lists for talent about to step up, and this is one of the reasons I think we will have 8-9 changes this year, as there are five mentioned above already.

Have no real argument with any of your nominated delistings, except perhaps Farmer. There is a lot of hate on all forums for him, and I think he does have some good redeeming features. Fitness is his biggest issue and if he could get that right, he may prove to be an alright player. Will likely be shot down for that but it is just my opinion!!

Looking at your list of those remaining, I reckon Newman will still be there. Too good a ball user and leader to be let go, even at 32. Reminds me of a Guerra/Josh Hunt type, We certainly need to develop/recruit some taller defenders, as I doubt Gourdis will still be there!

Midfielder look ok, but more A Grade class is still required. Hopefully we can draft one or more this year?

Smaller medium forwards are a concern too looking at your list. Do you think Morton will still be there? Not sure what to make of him, he finished last year so well and had a disastrous year this year, and had "issues". But Dimma seems to rate him very highly.

Rucks, well? Sounds like Maric will be one of them, and if he is recruited, will Graham be retained??? Also whispers we may be pursuing a young Gold Coast ruck, not sure there is anything in that.

In summary, do not disagree with a lot of what you say, but it will come down to how well we draft and trade (ie Manage the List). Free Agency will also impact, and it goes without saying that we need to retain those few elite players we have on the list at the moment.

 

[CoggaRules]

Just a quick question or two for all.

1/ When do people think we are a REALISTIC chance to, firstly make finals with a reasonably competetive team that has the potential to go on and become a top 4 side?

I phrase it this way because i think most of us would agree it is possible to make finals with an ordinary team and slip back into obscurity for awhile.

2/ When do people think we will be a realistic chance for a flag. I suppose that means when we become a genuine top 4 side.

3/ How many players on average do people think we will turn over the next 3 yrs including rookies.

For me the answer to 1 is 2014. It may happen in 2013.

for me the answer to 2 is 2016 again im being realistic and maybe a little conservative.

for me the answer to 3 is 6. again that is being conservative as i could do 8 easily.

I ask these questions because we all keep on talking about when our window will open if it opens, assuming we have recruited well.

To determine or have some sort of idea where the list will be at or if its going to be good enough in 2014, for me the predicted time when we make finals, you sort of have to project forward.

i suppose the first thing to ask is,
Who is likely to still be there?
How old are/will the players be who are still there ?
How many games do/will they have?
What are the likely weaknesses going to be in regard development times, quality and list structure?

If 2014 is the yr we make finals and we have two more buliding and development yrs ahead of us, not unrealistic imo. The first thing to ask is.
Who is most likely to not be there?
If 6 delistings a yr is close to the mark including rookies, again thats being conservative. That means on average 6 delistings this yr 6 in 2012 and 6 in 2013 those likely to go are. and i base it on age performance and strengths weakness in their games.along with list needs.it may pan out that we do 6 this yr 8 te yr after and less in 2013.its just a guide with a lot of assumption.

Newman -age will be 32.
Tuck - age will be 33.
Miller - age and quality will be 31.
Hicks - gone
Hislop - gone
Westhoff - gone
Taylor - gone.
Farmer - below standard.
white - below standard.
Moore - age will be 30 and injury.
King - age 30 and lack of quality.
Mcguane - below standard.
Nason - to small very ordinary probably already gone.
Webberley - very ordinary and likely one of 4 uncontracted on list proper that will go this yr

To cut it short the remaining 4 to come from Jackson, Morton, Graham, Thursfield,

so that leaves 27 players to form the core as of the end of 2014..
they are in position, their age in 2014, and based on 15 games per player per yr their guestimated games played on a conservative basis by the end of 2014.

sml / med backs
Batchelor age 22 games 60.
Deledio 27/195.
Dea 23/ 50.
O'rielly 26/ 50.
Jakobi 23/ under 50 games.
Houli 26/95 imo hes not a backman.

tall backs

Rance 25/100
Grimes 23/50
Post 25/65
Gourdis 25/ under 50 games.

mids
conca 22/65
martin 23/90
helbig 22/ 50
nahas 27/100
cotchin 24/110
foley 29/150
grigg 26/110
contin 23/ under 50 games
edwards 26/135

sml/med forwards
macdonald 22/ under 50 games.
connors 26/70

tall forwards

astbury 23/70
riewoldt 26/135
griffiths 23/55
vickery 24/90

rucks

derickx 27/45
browne 24/57

now this may be the 27 players who form the core for 2014 obviously its all only presumtion but what i hopefully think is reasonable presumption. of course some i have tipped to go may stay and some i have tipped to stay may go.to me that core is not a top 4 core and there are a terrible lot in it that are unproven.

ithink what it does show, is to make finals in 2014 and definately be on the rise we will have to recruit and importantly trade very well indeed.it shows nearly all areas need work apart from maybe the sml/med backs and even then id be looking for another of quality.
i think it shows also that there is room for mature players to be taken as well. in 2014 the oldest three players we may have is foley 29, deledio 27 and nahas 27.

so with a conservative 18 players including rookies being turned over in the next 3 nd/trade periods what are we looking at to replace those 18 players.

well by assuming we wont make finals until 2014 we will have top 10 picks in 2012 2013.
we have picks.
2011 - 14 36 54 and 72 plus 2 live rookie picks. only three rookies dropped, heslin to come on and newman to the vet list. must admit im not sure if we must put contin miller and orielly on the list proper after two yrs if we wish to keep them.
now we may well trade or use late picks on mature types we may try and do a houli and get a player in the psd. i can think of two players id like to give a chance to carnell at coburg and wilson of south fremantle/wce. ones a mid ones a ff. we will probably chase a ruckman so its hard to say what will happen this yr.
what i do exppect is if we use 14 and 36 we get at the least two good to very good players. if we trade out of one of those picks i still expect a good to very good player.

2012 - supposed super draft and definately the yr to heavily participate in the nd.

assuming a finish between 12th and 9th that will be a pick betwen 7 and 10, a second rounder between 25 and 28, third rnd 43 and 46, and 4th rnd between 61 and 64.
we can also look at useing the tambling pick at the start of the second rnd. thats 5 nd picks and if it runs deep maybe even another.

assuming we miss the 8 in 2013 picks will be similar to 2012.

again we dont have any idea on what trades we will do so i can only go by what i can reasonably assume will be our nd picks if we miss the 8 and try to be consevative with my assumptions.

where will all these picks be at in the 2014 season. will we get enough quality and enough depth to play finals in 2014 solely from the nd . every young pick unless we get a martin or deledio will do an apprenticship and have less than 50 games to their names.
what talls we take will generally take 3 or 4 yrs to have a decent impact if then.
again if we want to play finals by 2014 we will have to take some mature types there is so much work that needs to be done its not funny.

i know people will get into me for this post but all im trying to do is project forward and envision within reason where the list will be at.

a lot of assuming but i suppose thats what you have to do if you want to prject 3 yrs down the track.

finally i hope people can make sense of what im trying to say here. i think ive been conservative and reasonable with my assumtions i know people will disagree with who should go or who is likely, at the end of the day i chose 18, i think it is not enough but there you go.

No one can predict anything when it comes to looking 5 years ahead. To many variables that dont come into consideration, especially when it comes to injuries etc.

This must be the longest post I have ever seen. Got to hand it to you Claws dude..how did you remember what you wrote at the start?

The understatement of the century...quick? FFS..cant wait for the opposite.

 

[Punt_Road_Roar]

I think 2014 is realistic, but did anyone see the game last night, I could help but wonder if we will ever be capable of matching it with the intensity of last nights match. It was a full on bruising and hard hitting game so many players putting their body on the line.

God I dream of the day when Richmond play hard footy like that.

 

[jihg]

2014 we will make the 8, 2015 the top 4, 2016 premiers, 2017 premiers, 2018 runners up, 2019 premiers, 2020 premiers.

 

[TOOs_Finest]

Actually shocked at some of your comments there Santa. Optimism is not usually your forte!! Sustianed finals appearances starting in 2 years, I hope you are right. I am unsure about that but I can accept that it is a possibility, depends on list additions between now and then. Saying that, I have faith in FJ and his team, and we will get better players, no doubt.

I think that your average delistings of 6 a season is a little off. As you said, next year is meant to be a very good draft and with the Compo pick hopefully still in our hands, I can see at least 8 changes next year, as they will want to grab as much of the young talent available as they can. This year, we have already announced 3 rookie delistings, to go with Taylor who we all assume is already gone.

Nason also sounds like he is gone (wants to return to Adelaide) , and the jungle drums are saying others will go too. We will probably trade some out to get new players in. I think 8-9 changes will be made this year, but that depends on whether we are trading in any players, such as Ivan Maric, which sounds a certainty.

We keep hearing about Blair Hartley scouring other lists for talent about to step up, and this is one of the reasons I think we will have 8-9 changes this year, as there are five mentioned above already.

Have no real argument with any of your nominated delistings, except perhaps Farmer. There is a lot of hate on all forums for him, and I think he does have some good redeeming features. Fitness is his biggest issue and if he could get that right, he may prove to be an alright player. Will likely be shot down for that but it is just my opinion!!

Looking at your list of those remaining, I reckon Newman will still be there. Too good a ball user and leader to be let go, even at 32. Reminds me of a Guerra/Josh Hunt type, We certainly need to develop/recruit some taller defenders, as I doubt Gourdis will still be there!

Midfielder look ok, but more A Grade class is still required. Hopefully we can draft one or more this year?

Smaller medium forwards are a concern too looking at your list. Do you think Morton will still be there? Not sure what to make of him, he finished last year so well and had a disastrous year this year, and had "issues". But Dimma seems to rate him very highly.

Rucks, well? Sounds like Maric will be one of them, and if he is recruited, will Graham be retained??? Also whispers we may be pursuing a young Gold Coast ruck, not sure there is anything in that.

In summary, do not disagree with a lot of what you say, but it will come down to how well we draft and trade (ie Manage the List). Free Agency will also impact, and it goes without saying that we need to retain those few elite players we have on the list at the moment.

Very good response to an excellent OP. Agree with most of this.

We've had serious injuries to our back line this year. I just hope our mids prove to be very durable. I guess we've missed a fair bit of Cothcin and Foley over the past 24 months, but it's the one area we can least afford to lose A graders over the next 24 months. Really need to boost our depth of quality here.

Over the past two years, so many goals have been scored over the back of our press/zone. So until we are fit enough to work hard enough both ways, we will struggle to hinder teams scoring against us. Whether it will take another one or two pre-seasons to get the majority of our players close to that level is hard to tell.

 

[Madtiger2006]

can i ask mad one, if we make the 8 next yr do you think it sustainable.
let me also ask over the next 3 trade/draft periods how many players including rookies do you think will be delisted traded and who they are likely to be.

I think we're about 2/3 of the way through the list turnover. I'd say about 8 players will be gone this year and another 5 or 6 the year after. So from the start of next season we'll be about 85% of the way through to list turnover which will be enough to get us into the finals. We'll have loads of young talent on the list so I can't see us going backwards. Melbourne's list is full of young talent but their problem is they have a short forward line and I think they have less young leadership types than us. We've pretty much overtaken them now and should have the edge on them I think. We should expect to overpower teams from now on, as long as we get a ruckman or 2 this year. We've already delisted Hislop, Hicks and Westoff. Expect Gourdis, Farmer, Graham, Nason, Taylor and 1 of Moore(retired) or Thursfield/Mcguane(trade) to be gone too this year.

 

[santa claws]

Actually shocked at some of your comments there Santa. Optimism is not usually your forte!! Sustianed finals appearances starting in 2 years, I hope you are right. I am unsure about that but I can accept that it is a possibility, depends on list additions between now and then. Saying that, I have faith in FJ and his team, and we will get better players, no doubt.

I think that your average delistings of 6 a season is a little off. As you said, next year is meant to be a very good draft and with the Compo pick hopefully still in our hands, I can see at least 8 changes next year, as they will want to grab as much of the young talent available as they can. This year, we have already announced 3 rookie delistings, to go with Taylor who we all assume is already gone.

Nason also sounds like he is gone (wants to return to Adelaide) , and the jungle drums are saying others will go too. We will probably trade some out to get new players in. I think 8-9 changes will be made this year, but that depends on whether we are trading in any players, such as Ivan Maric, which sounds a certainty.

We keep hearing about Blair Hartley scouring other lists for talent about to step up, and this is one of the reasons I think we will have 8-9 changes this year, as there are five mentioned above already.

Have no real argument with any of your nominated delistings, except perhaps Farmer. There is a lot of hate on all forums for him, and I think he does have some good redeeming features. Fitness is his biggest issue and if he could get that right, he may prove to be an alright player. Will likely be shot down for that but it is just my opinion!!

Looking at your list of those remaining, I reckon Newman will still be there. Too good a ball user and leader to be let go, even at 32. Reminds me of a Guerra/Josh Hunt type, We certainly need to develop/recruit some taller defenders, as I doubt Gourdis will still be there!

Midfielder look ok, but more A Grade class is still required. Hopefully we can draft one or more this year?

Smaller medium forwards are a concern too looking at your list. Do you think Morton will still be there? Not sure what to make of him, he finished last year so well and had a disastrous year this year, and had "issues". But Dimma seems to rate him very highly.

Rucks, well? Sounds like Maric will be one of them, and if he is recruited, will Graham be retained??? Also whispers we may be pursuing a young Gold Coast ruck, not sure there is anything in that.

In summary, do not disagree with a lot of what you say, but it will come down to how well we draft and trade (ie Manage the List). Free Agency will also impact, and it goes without saying that we need to retain those few elite players we have on the list at the moment.

Like you im unsure about us playing finals in 2014, but i most certainly think it is a realistic possibility.
2014 is a time frame of 3 more nd/trade periods and a total of 5 for Hardwick to show he is on the right track with on field performance. i think it a very reasonable time frame. At some stage performance has to take precedence over full on list building.

If our recruiters do their job properly i would expect roughly 10 12 players who would fall into the good or better categories. Thats about 60% success rate given we actually delist just 18 players in that time frame. which is close to the average and definately not unreasonable for us with earlier picks than most.
oh unlike you im still not sure about fj and his team it a big worry for me.

My delistings of 6 a season was a conservative figure. I did say it was probably more like 8 a season and i averaged it out over the three seasons.

I was reluctant to cut deeper for several reasons contracts for one and to be honest i didnt want to come across as being too negative, and have people focus just on the delistings.
I think 6 a yr conservative and realistic, but 8 9 like you is what i personally think probably should happen.

On farmer. Two things pace and his inability to get enough ball. For a small hes been around long enough.
Hes also currently out of contract and there is not that many fringe players out of contract. Only Morton, Nason, Farmer, Jackson, Taylor, and Webberley.
If we wish to turn over 8 or 9 the whole lot of them may have to go.

The list of 18 delistings is certainly a very debatable topic and we will all have differences of opinion on who should or should not go. there is certainly a lot of players left who have done little in their careers to date or have been very poor at times.
Newman to me gets a game on a yr to yr basis. i have grave concerns about his pace which will probably get worse as he gets older.i definately think it is time for him to move out of the backline because of this.

Gourdis like a fair few who made the 27 is borderline. as i was being conservative and only did 18 he made the cut. imo i think there is still plenty of upside to this bloke and i would definately be giving him at least one more yr.

Morton sheesh while he has the skill there is something missing, attitude hunger i dont know, but what ever it is he needs to turn it around and quickly.
hes never been one ive overly rated and prefered we kept our pick 35 rather than take him. hardness is an issue.

Imo Graham will be retained at least until someone actually steps up and makes the ruck position theirs. If Angus is leading the ruck in 2014 it will probably mean we are still battlers.

Finally thanks for the well thought out reply. part of the reason for doing the op was to get people to think about where the list may be at in two or three yrs time, to get them to think about what needs to be done and hopefully have a little patience.
In projecting forward realise that 2014 may be finals but it may still be borderline.
I also hoped it would make people realise the need to add some mature players to the list and that in taking them it is not a backward step, but neccesary.
As pointed out it is possble in 2014 that we will have Foley 29 Deledio 27 and Nahas 27 as the three oldest players on the list.
its possible we may have 20 - 25 players aged 22 thru 26 as well. with most of them played at least 50 games and 8 or 9 who have played 100 plus games.
these sorts of age and game figures suggest if we have the quality right it is indeed time for finals.

 

[Catsace]

Certainly this time frame, and how the side has been constructed so far after about 2007 is consistent with what it took Geelong to get into the finals and become a threat for the flag.

I've posted elsewhere about the absolute dearth of current Tigers that have eminated from the actual national drafts of 2000-2005, and apart from a few rookies taken in that era it's sort of a similar situation that Carlton found themselves after the draft penalties of the early 2000's. There has been a demographic black hole in your list of what would now be players say from Deledio's age up to about 27 y/o, and the last few years has been about trying to bring blokes in to fulfil roles that in normal circumstances established players would already be doing.

Not having that backbone of mid 20's players with 100-150 games is a compelling reason why the Tigers have struggled somewhat in that time. But it is changing rapidly for the good, and really starting with Jack Riewoldt in 2006 your drafting has been much improved. Arguably you have picked the best player in each of the 2007 and 2009 drafts in Cotchin and Martin, and now you have a group of young and importantly talented midfielders which will be the engine for your side for the next decade. Vickery is progressing nicely (talls take lots of time), and the building blocks are there.

Even this year, it's that lack of experience as much as anything, and the inconsistency of youth that probably saw the Tigers drop theoretically easy neutral venue games against the GCS and Port. Win those two and what is it...10-11-1? Close to the mix for the 8. After the 0-9 start at the beginning of 2010, the side is now 14-19-2 i think, which is an improvement on before. Natural improvement from who is there now, and adding talent from the next three drafts as Santa Claws has said should see the fruits of essentially a 6-year rebuild from 2007 in 2013-2014. And because the talent is young, and mostly under 24 y/o at this point, it will be sustainable for a decent crack at a flag in the middle of the decade and later.

I'm sure i've said several times in posts previous that Geelong took at least 4-5 years to get into the finals (perhaps considering 2004 it was a little sooner than the Tigers), but your side started from further back. No club could really prosper when so many drafts in the early 2000's were proven so wrong in hindsight. But nowadays your drafting is much improved, there is likely to be no more JON's, Tamblings or Meyers, or even any more Jordon McMahons. This group will mature as a solid bloc of players in an ange demographic similar to Geelong's 1999 and 2001 group. The years of pain will unquestionably be a thing of the past, the middle of the decade will be Tiger time i'd suggest.

 

[Jisha]

I would be a little disappointed if we do not make finals next year, but I would imagine we will just be making up the numbers if we do make it.

2013-2014 I would expect to be our window, of course that all relies on how we draft and who we let go

Edit: Nice post Catsace

 

[Dr Tigris]

Like the OP, agree roughly with timelines and details on delistings etc.

the thing I like about it all is that in 3 years we will have a good young mature core to the squad. Lots of holes to fill, but that's true of all but 2 teams this year. It's a squad to build on, which I am now more confident will happen. Interesting times.
What will it be like supporting the tiges if they keep making the finals each year?? - very strange feeling, haven't had it since I was teenager. then I presumed we were competitive every year.

 

[Frustrated Tiger]

Damn, some of you guys have way way to much time on your hands....what a sum up of where we are....amazing ! ! !