Who should coach Freo in 2020

[Freomaniac]

The great Hagdorn has said that Lyon's contracted was front loaded so the cash for next year is no big deal. I'm tipping he will coach for as long as he enjoys it.

ok. thats news to me then. Then Hagdorn is a miserable negative flog.

Still..... even if it was front ended.... So if his last 3 years of his current contract would be like 1.2 million in in 2018, 1 million in 2019 then $800,000 in 2020.

 

[Caldera]

The great Hagdorn has said that Lyon's contracted was front loaded so the cash for next year is no big deal. I'm tipping he will coach for as long as he enjoys it.

When did the “soft cap” come in? I’ve never heard of coaches getting loaded contracts. Not to say it doesn’t happen now, but if Lyons contract is front end loaded it makes the idea of a cap redundant.

 

[theGav56]

Wait a minute guys; did you read the part where I said the comments source was Hagdorn?

 

[Caldera]

Wait a minute guys; did you read the part where I said the comments source was Hagdorn?

Although I quoted you it wasn’t aimed at you. Someone stated the same thing earlier. Are coaching contracts loaded? Just a question.

 

[Mogumber]

Soft cap recently, so if we pay out Ross we pay the same to AFL as penalty. $800k to Ross, $800k to gill
Dollar for dollar in 2017

 

[tonygeeks]

Soft cap recently, so if we pay out Ross we pay the same to AFL as penalty. $800k to Ross, $800k to gill
Dollar for dollar in 2017

Nah Ross's contract would be factored in for next year I'd say , it would be the potential new coach's contract that would tip you over
I hadn't thought of front or back loaded contracts for coaches but I'm doubtful it would have happened in Lyons case as doesn't his deal pre-date the introduction of the soft cap

 

[sumavich]

Soft cap introduced in 2015, the year Ross current contract got extended.
He's got good timing

 

[PurpleEyes]

Since 2000-2019, according to my calculations, there has been (EDIT:incorrect total 3,808) 7505 games coached for 19 premierships by a total of 74 different coaches.

5 of the 19 premierships were won by 5 different coaches in 2000-2019 when they had greater than 22 and less than 100 games of coaching experience.
There was a total of 3,680 games coached by 48 different coaches with 22-100 games coached.
That equates to 1 premiership per 736 coached games.

5 of the 19 premierships were won by 5 different coaches with 101-200 games of coaching experience.
There was a total of 1,909 games coached by 30 different coaches.
That equates to 1 premiership per 381.8 coached games.

5 of the 19 premierships were won by 3 different coaches with 201-300 games of coaching experience.
There was a total of 932 games coached by 15 different coaches.
That equates to 1 premiership per 186.4 coached games.

2 of the 19 premierships were won by 1 coach with 301-400 games of coaching experience.
There was a total of 351 games coached by 7 different coaches.
That equates to 1 premiership per 175.5 coached games.

And there was 2 premierships won by 2 different coaches with 401+ games of coaching experience.
There was a total of 633 games coached by 4 different coaches.
That equates to 1 premiership per 316.5 coached games.

These stats quite clearly show that the more experienced coaches with 200+ games provide a club with a better statistical chance of winning a premiership than a 22-100 game "new" coach.

 

[tonygeeks]

Since 2000-2019, according to my calculations, there has been 3,808 games coached for 19 premierships by a total of 74 different coaches.

5 of the 19 premierships were won by 5 different coaches in 2000-2019 when they had greater than 22 and less than 100 games of coaching experience.
There was a total of 3,680 games coached by 48 different coaches with 22-100 games coached.
That equates to 1 premiership per 736 coached games.

5 of the 19 premierships were won by 5 different coaches with 101-200 games of coaching experience.
There was a total of 1,909 games coached by 30 different coaches.
That equates to 1 premiership per 381.8 coached games.

5 of the 19 premierships were won by 3 different coaches with 201-300 games of coaching experience.
There was a total of 932 games coached by 15 different coaches.
That equates to 1 premiership per 186.4 coached games.

2 of the 19 premierships were won by 1 coach with 301-400 games of coaching experience.
There was a total of 351 games coached by 7 different coaches.
That equates to 1 premiership per 175.5 coached games.

And there was 2 premierships won by 2 different coaches with 401+ games of coaching experience.
There was a total of 633 games coached by 4 different coaches.
That equates to 1 premiership per 316.5 coached games.

These stats quite clearly show that the more experienced coaches with 200+ games provide a club with a better statistical chance of winning a premiership than a 22-100 game "new" coach.

Oh no ..... not another one haha

 

[Becky2Belts]

That's fine and all but that's a decision from three years ago. Imo Fremantle haven't been expecting to extend Lyon's contract, 9 years is a decent length even for a successful coach. Of course its all relative, go undefeated for the rest of the season and grab that first premiership (for all involved) and Fremantle will sign whatever Lyon puts in front of them. Lose the next 6 and he won't be here come New Years.

What's interesting is where's the tipping point? And will all the movement at other clubs have any impact at all because Fremantle will have had people in mind for the what ifs and what happens after Lyon.

I don’t think they will, assuming they’re just your run of the mill 20-40 point losses. If we get smacked by 100 every week then maybe, but I think the club have long since made up their mind. Maybe next year, but it seems like the people who make the decisions (including ross) have got their talking points organised for the remainder of the year and will stick to the cards no matter what brand of footy we serve up.

 

[Becky2Belts]

Since 2000-2019, according to my calculations, there has been 3,808 games coached for 19 premierships by a total of 74 different coaches.

5 of the 19 premierships were won by 5 different coaches in 2000-2019 when they had greater than 22 and less than 100 games of coaching experience.
There was a total of 3,680 games coached by 48 different coaches with 22-100 games coached.
That equates to 1 premiership per 736 coached games.

5 of the 19 premierships were won by 5 different coaches with 101-200 games of coaching experience.
There was a total of 1,909 games coached by 30 different coaches.
That equates to 1 premiership per 381.8 coached games.

5 of the 19 premierships were won by 3 different coaches with 201-300 games of coaching experience.
There was a total of 932 games coached by 15 different coaches.
That equates to 1 premiership per 186.4 coached games.

2 of the 19 premierships were won by 1 coach with 301-400 games of coaching experience.
There was a total of 351 games coached by 7 different coaches.
That equates to 1 premiership per 175.5 coached games.

And there was 2 premierships won by 2 different coaches with 401+ games of coaching experience.
There was a total of 633 games coached by 4 different coaches.
That equates to 1 premiership per 316.5 coached games.

These stats quite clearly show that the more experienced coaches with 200+ games provide a club with a better statistical chance of winning a premiership than a 22-100 game "new" coach.

It also shows that only 21% of the premiers have coaches with more than 300 games, a category Lyon now finds himself in.

Just like you want us to blood kids so we can reach that sweet spot of 50 gamers, this is why a lot of us wanted Lyon gone sooner than later. Get someone new in and give him time to develop and grow with the young list, so they all hit their sweet spot together. Not too efficient rebuilding the list, sacking the coach, then rebuilding the coaching department. Do it all together in the early stages, get the new coach in so the club grows with the kids all learning one style of football.

You’ve stitched yourself up with your own stats there. Not inspiring numbers at all for Freo fans. 15 of the 19 premiership coaches have coached fewer than Ross has, and four have coached more. Seems like we’re on the wrong side of the hill here, no?

 

[theGav56]

It also shows that only 21% of the premiers have coaches with more than 300 games, a category Lyon now finds himself in.

Just like you want us to blood kids so we can reach that sweet spot of 50 gamers, this is why a lot of us wanted Lyon gone sooner than later. Get someone new in and give him time to develop and grow with the young list, so they all hit their sweet spot together. Not too efficient rebuilding the list, sacking the coach, then rebuilding the coaching department. Do it all together in the early stages, get the new coach in so the club grows with the kids all learning one style of football.

You’ve stitched yourself up with your own stats there. Not inspiring numbers at all for Freo fans. 15 of the 19 premiership coaches have coached fewer than Ross has, and four have coached more. Seems like we’re on the wrong side of the hill here, no?

purpleyes doesn't especially advocate blooding more kids at all (that would slow down the progress of some of the players like Brayshaw and Cerra who have already been blooded if it was at their expense), just points out what realistic expectations for a bunch of players with little experience should be.

And also what expectations on a coach with less than 4-5 seasons under their belt should be, which at this stage seems to be the only realistic alternative for us. The salient point being that it is statistically unlikely that a rookie coach transforms us into a finals contender until Fyfe, Walters and Mundy are gone.

 

[Vintage]

It also shows that only 21% of the premiers have coaches with more than 300 games, a category Lyon now finds himself in.

Just like you want us to blood kids so we can reach that sweet spot of 50 gamers, this is why a lot of us wanted Lyon gone sooner than later. Get someone new in and give him time to develop and grow with the young list, so they all hit their sweet spot together. Not too efficient rebuilding the list, sacking the coach, then rebuilding the coaching department. Do it all together in the early stages, get the new coach in so the club grows with the kids all learning one style of football.

You’ve stitched yourself up with your own stats there. Not inspiring numbers at all for Freo fans. 15 of the 19 premiership coaches have coached fewer than Ross has, and four have coached more. Seems like we’re on the wrong side of the hill here, no?

Perhaps look at the stats this way:
Coaches have roughly 10% chance of coaching a premiership before they reach 100 games (5 of 48) or alternatively use the 1 flag per 736 games coached.

That improves all the way up to 400 games, to 1 flag for every 175 games coached between 301-400 games.

 

[Johnny Dalmas]

By my count from 2000 until today there have been 13 premiership coaches.

All but 2 of those coaches won their first premiership before they had coached 200 games.

The two coaches who had to wait until after 200 games to win their first flag were Malthouse and Matthews. They share a similar coaching history: well over 100 games without success at one club to then have premiership success within their first 100 games at their second club.

Lyon has coached 300 games without winning a flag. He coached his first club for more than 100 games without premiership success and then did not win a premiership at his second club within the first 100 games he coached there.

Lyon does not fit the profile of a 21st century premiership winning coach.

 

[PurpleEyes]

It also shows that only 21% of the premiers have coaches with more than 300 games, a category Lyon now finds himself in.

Just like you want us to blood kids so we can reach that sweet spot of 50 gamers, this is why a lot of us wanted Lyon gone sooner than later. Get someone new in and give him time to develop and grow with the young list, so they all hit their sweet spot together. Not too efficient rebuilding the list, sacking the coach, then rebuilding the coaching department. Do it all together in the early stages, get the new coach in so the club grows with the kids all learning one style of football.

You’ve stitched yourself up with your own stats there. Not inspiring numbers at all for Freo fans. 15 of the 19 premiership coaches have coached fewer than Ross has, and four have coached more. Seems like we’re on the wrong side of the hill here, no?

So, you have a go at Lyon being part of 21% of premiers, but advocate for a new coach when 73.7% of premierships go to 100+ coaches.
Nevermind that the 300+ game coaches represent 21% of premierships, but only 13% of the games coached, while 22-100 game coaches represent 26% of premierships but a whopping 49% of games coached.

If you fail to understand the logic of a post, and then choose to apply your own misunderstandings to it, maybe pause for a second before pulling the trigger and making a goose of yourself.

And then you double down by showing you completely misunderstand my 50+ stat.

 

[PurpleEyes]

By my count from 2000 until today there have been 13 premiership coaches.

All but 2 of those coaches won their first premiership before they had coached 200 games.

The two coaches who had to wait until after 200 games to win their first flag were Malthouse and Matthews. They share a similar coaching history: well over 100 games without success at one club to then have premiership success within their first 100 games at their second club.

Lyon has coached 300 games without winning a flag. He coached his first club for more than 100 games without premiership success and then did not win a premiership at his second club within the first 100 games he coached there.

Lyon does not fit the profile of a 21st century premiership winning coach.

What the stats show, is that coaches coaching their first 100 games account for over half of all games coached in the 21st century, yet they only account for about a quarter of the premierships.

You can argue Lyon does not fit the profile as much as you want, but a new coach with no AFL senior games is even worse.

 

[Demons09]

We got Roscos own Praetorian guard on BF.

 

[tonygeeks]

Apart from my halftime nap and a few extra toilet breaks I feel like I'm coaching better than ever

 

[basashi]

Apart from my halftime nap and a few extra toilet breaks I feel like I'm coaching better than ever

what a fantastic post!

 

[halalsnackpack]

The worry is, Lyon coaches next year and the season follows the same trajectory as the past three. We look good before the bye, are in the 8, he gets an extension, then we turn to water again.

 

[Retzlaff]

The effort is there but we just need to improve the connection with the forwards

 

[Johnny Dalmas]

What the stats show, is that coaches coaching their first 100 games account for over half of all games coached in the 21st century, yet they only account for about a quarter of the premierships.

You can argue Lyon does not fit the profile as much as you want, but a new coach with no AFL senior games is even worse.

True. Ratten may end up fitting the profile. Although I doubt Richardson or Hinkley will.
Ultimately though coach selection will be based on qualitative rather than quantitative criteria.

 

[fnerd]

Soft cap introduced in 2015, the year Ross current contract got extended.
He's got good timing

Yes , he clearly planned this.... there really is no limit to Lyons influence on everything afl(and lower leagues of course)football
He will manipulate anything he can to ensure he has a hand in destroying everything to to do with Fremantle football club

 

[BlueE]

Soft cap recently, so if we pay out Ross we pay the same to AFL as penalty. $800k to Ross, $800k to gill
Dollar for dollar in 2017

Only have to pay the AFL if the payout exceeds the soft salary cap. Is we are already 800K under the cap, as we might be by employing the L Plater List manager and not replacing Tom Morris (or whoever the coach co-ordinator was?) then we don't pay the AFL anything.

 

[BlueE]

What the stats show, is that coaches coaching their first 100 games account for over half of all games coached in the 21st century, yet they only account for about a quarter of the premierships.

You can argue Lyon does not fit the profile as much as you want, but a new coach with no AFL senior games is even worse.

I'd rather take someone that has coached under 100 games which your figures show have won 25% of premierships in the 2000s.

Someone with Ross's profile has won 0%.