Who will win the Melbourne cup?

[hawkfan5]

Heres the field and your opportunity to put your tip in.

Good luck.

My tip is Sky Heigts from Freemason and Kaapstad Way.


1 _ 2114 Persian Punch dm (11) Richard Quinn 57.5
2 _ 0562 Sky Heights tm (21) D Oliver 56.5
3 _ 2260 Universal Prince mbn (6) J Sheehan 55.5
4 _ 7547 Caitano m (8) J Murtagh 55
5 _ 4504 Give The Slip (15) R Hills 55
6 _ 1523 Marienbard (7) L Dettori 55
7 _ 3409 Kaapstad Way (5) N Rawiller 54.5
8 _ 0934 Yippyio dmn (22) D Beadman 54.5
9 _ 0100 Freemason mh (24) D Gauci 53.5
10 _ 9705 Curata Storm (18) G J Childs 52.5
11 _ 0890 Mr. Prudent dm (2) C Williams 52.5
12 _ 0700 Pasta Express m (4) D Nikolic 52.5
13 _ 3331 Ethereal m (13) S Seamer 52
14 _ 0442 Hill Of Grace m (20) C W Brown 52
15 _ 1868 Inaflury tm (16) B Prebble 52
16 _ 7093 Big Pat m (9) P Mertens 51
17 _ 0607 Reenact (17) L V Cassidy 51
18 _ 0551 Karasi hn (19) G Boss 50
19 _ 8421 Maythehorsebewithu tmh (10) J Patton 50
20 _ 0006 Prophet's Kiss m (3) B York 50
21 _ 2322 Spirit Of Westbury tm (12) R S Dye 50
22 _ 1131 Rain Gauge tmn (23) K McEvoy 49.5
23 _ 0055 Rum mh (1) C Munce 49.5
24 _ 3203 Celestial Show h (14) R McLeod (a) 49

 

[hawkfan5]

come on people.

 

[Bulldog1954]

1) Ethereal
2) Sky Heights
3) Kaapstad Way

 

[Bucks]

im going for Inaflury

 

[mandy]

Which jockey will be wearing pretty blue silks? That's the one I'll tip!

 

[walshy1993]

without looking to much into things at this stage:

Yippyio.
It is just coming back into solid form
and one thing we all know is that it can run the distance, finished second last year behind brew
has drawn wide, but i dont think that will worry it, brew won from 24 last year and it should enable it to stay out of too much trouble early
It's nicely weighted, and beadman seems very confident
Should provide a bit of value

Yippyio is my early tip.

Maythehorsebewithyou was very impressive yesterday, and is only carrying 50kg and should provide excellent each way value, only worry is if it can cover the distance


Universal prince wont run by the look of things, big pat is the new favourite

 

[Dr AlfAndrews]

Dr.ALF’s expert assessment of the Cup runners.


PERSIAN PUNCH : Unlike the rest of the refugees in the field, this bloke is actually proven on Australian turf, having been placed behind Jezabeel. But that was last century for God’s sake. The poor old bugger is 9-Y-O. Nevertheless his recent form reads nicely. I’m just not sure how much credence to put on British form.

SKY HEIGHTS : Great run at Caulfied and generally well credentialled. But how often has this horse let his backers down when it really mattered. Besides this, he’s drawn a shocking barrier. I’m also put off by his weight. It takes a really good horse to carry 56.5 in a Melbourne Cup and win. I mean a REALLY good horse. Sky Heights just has too many convictions for mine.

UNIVERSAL PRINCE : Has had more excuses than Hawthorn in his last couple of outings. In the Cox Plate he was supposed to have lost because he had the hots for Sunline. They should have called it the C.o.c.k.s Plate, hey … In the McKinnon he was supposed to have injured himself at the start of the race, then somehow made a miraculous recovery in the last 600m. Sounds more like a classic case of saving him for Tuesday to me. Don’t be surprised if he runs a very big race. But if he does, Sheehan’s ride on him in the McKinnon will go down in history as the most diabolical ride since J.J.Miller pulled up Galilee in the same race in 1966.

CAITANO : Did nothing in the Cox Plate and his O/S record looks ordinary to me.

GIVE THE SLIP : Not a real top-liner going by his form. I’m prepared to risk him.

MARIENBARD : Ditto.

KAAPSTAD WAY : Has never won beyond 2000m and did nothing in the McKinnon. Was going OK about a month ago but that form won’t help him here. Not for me.

YIPPYIO : Great run last year … but he’s a year older now and his form’s not as good.

FREEMASON : Can’t have him on his McKinnon run. And as much as I respect his trainer, you’d have to say that the cerise army has a pretty poor record in this race.

CURATA STORM : Curata Who? This horse somehow won a big race at Rosehill back in April and has done jack **** since. Ran stone motherless in the Caulfield Cup.

Mr. PRUDENT : One of the few proven two-milers in the field, and you have to respect that. But how can you back a horse that ran last in the Geelong Cup? Expect him to tail out for a big finish. But this bloke is no Kiwi.

PASTA EXPRESS : I’d prefer him in my bolognaise sauce.

ETHEREAL : Definitely the class factor in this. En-zedder who cleaned up in Brisbane earlier in the year, winning the Queensland Oaks. This latest trans-Tasman raid has been even more successful, with an excellent placing behind the mighty Northerly at Caulfied, followed by that gutsy Cup win at the heath the following week. Has been fair-dinkum pitch-forked into this race with 52kg. She’s drawn OK at 13. The only negative is that she’s untried at the distance … BUT this is one of those years when there are only three proven two-milers in the field. And one of those is a 9 year old, one is an 8 year old, while the other has been racing like a woolly goat. So, I’m prepared to take a chance on this mare at the distance.

HILL OF GRACE : Gee. There’s nothing wrong with the form of this girl … except that she doesn’t seem to win many. Has been close up in top company at her last three runs. But has never won beyond 2040m. And the bad barrier won’t help.

INAFLURY : The sort of horse that can ruin a jockey’s reputation. Avoid her like anthrax. She’ll pull like Fitzroy James Dio and will be the first horse beaten. Expect to see her going backwards at the 800m.

BIG PAT : How the hell did this thing get to be favourite? Won the St.Leger at the Valley. Big hairy deal. Won the South Australian Derby. So what? Made up ground to run a distant third in the Valley Cup. Bravo. This is a “talking” favourite if ever there was one. Should help to create some value among the genuine chances.

REENACT : As they say in the classics, “others make more appeal”.

KARASI : This could have been a genuine lightweight chance at good odds had it not been for the wide barrier. Has been consistent over this distance, including a Brisbane Cup placing. Unfortunately, I think the barrier will kill his chances here. When he won at Geelong he was handily placed throughout. That’s very hard when you’ve drawn 19. But if Glenn Boss is able to fluke a nice sit, this horse could put some big value into the trifecta.

MAYTHEHORSEBEWITHU : I’m expecting his trainer, M.D.Moroney, to eventually become the most successful trainer in this race since Bart. Will this be Cup No.2 for the Cups King of the 21st Century? I’m not all that confident. He couldn’t have possibly had a more cushy run on Saturday. And the second placegetter (Spirit of Westbury) meets him 3kg better at the weights for sitting in the death. But I still expect this horse to be not far away at the finish.

PROPHET’S KISS : Well named … because you can kiss your profits goodbye if you back this one. Has been running on when it’s all over in shorter races and I suggest she’ll be running on when it’s all over in this. She’ll be the one just out of camera range, running a fast-finishing eighth.

SPIRIT OF WESTBURY : Looks beautifully weighted for this. Well beaten by Rain Gauge at the Valley, but is 2.5 kg better off at the weights … and the winner has drawn the bleachers. Then ran a top race against Maythehorsebewithu … and is meeting that horse (don’t ask me to type it again) 3 kg better after having a much tougher run. Must be a serious query at the distance however. And I don’t think I could stand seeing that little prick ride another big race winner.

RAIN GAUGE : Strong win at the Valley and had been racing well prior to that. But that barrier really is diabolical. Will have to come from a very long way back and will need a very solidly run race to have any chance.

RUM : A waste of barrier 1 really because this horse is a plodder who gets well back. Looked the best of a pretty unimpressive lot (from a Cup point of view) in the McKinnon. Might come into this very strongly if there is a lot of rain. He did run a close third to Sunline on a heavy track at Caulfield when resuming back in September.

CELESTIAL SHOW : Great run at cricket-score odds in the Caulfield Cup. Was this a fluke? Maybe not, because she was only narrowly beaten by Inaflury three starts back at Caulfield. She’s got no weight. She’s drawn reasonably. OK. So why can’t she win? Maybe the fact that she’s never won beyond 2200 could put some doubts on her at the trip. But then she did run 7th in this race last year, so there goes that theory. Really this Cup field is as weak as piss … so you’d have to give this mare a real chance.


Dr.ALF’s CUP TRIFECTA

1. ETHEREAL
2. SPIRIT OF WESTBURY
3. RUM

Other chances: UNIVERSAL PRINCE, HILL OF GRACE, KARASI, MAYTHEHORSEBEWITHU, RAIN GAUGE, CELESTIAL SHOW.

 

[Danny Chook Fan Club]

Originally posted by Dr AlfAndrews
SPIRIT OF WESTBURY : ... I don’t think I could stand seeing that little prick ride another big race winner.

- Hear hear!

I like your analysis Alfie, and our chances seem to be similar (see the other thread). I am in full agreeance that this is a piss poor Cup field, and on that basis I'm chucking in two overseas horses as well.

Happy punting.

 

[mantis]

Not in any particular order, but I think these 3 for the trifecta.

3 Universal Prince

8 Yippyio

19 maythehorsebewithu, considering I won a bit on him yesterday Dan25, do you have some money on this omen bet?

 

[Dr AlfAndrews]

Just bringing this back to the top of the list ... for Sabre's benefit.

 

[dee_girl9]

well im going for sky heights.....Every house i back with D. Oliver on the back, wins. sooo im sticking to a good thing

 

[X_box_X]

1. Yippiyiyo
2. Maythehorsebewithu (and also with you)
3. Rain Gauge

 

[Tredders#16]

1. Ethereal
2. Sky Heights
3. Big Pat
Other chances: Raingauge, Caitano, Maythehorsebewithu, Inaflury.
Tredders#16

 

[GOALden Hawk]

I don't know much about horse racing...it's one of the few sports I can't stand, but is it just me or is this field one of the biggest bunch of camels ever assembled???

Anyway, I'll say Inaflury cause I like the name.

 

[Chris_23]

Originally posted by GOALden Hawk
I don't know much about horse racing...it's one of the few sports I can't stand, but is it just me or is this field one of the biggest bunch of camels ever assembled???

They certainly are camels.

How am i supposed to respect this race when Brew.....BREW won it last year. About a month earlier i saw it battle around with a bunch of hacks at Moonee Valley.

Oh and how can i forget Rogan Josh, another superstar. It almost got done by a horse who wasn't even set for the race, it was here to keep Kayf Tara company! The Godolphin stable just threw Central Park in because they didn't want to waste there trip!

I've really had it with this race. In fact, the whole day's racing is crap. Oaks day and Emirates Stakes day are both better.

 

[Dr AlfAndrews]

Originally posted by GOALden Hawk
I don't know much about horse racing...it's one of the few sports I can't stand, but is it just me or is this field one of the biggest bunch of camels ever assembled??? ...

You're spot on there, GOALden. Worst Cup field that I can recall. In fact, if you had a half decent camel you could probably nominate it for this and pick up some prizemoney. Fair dinkum ... the milkman's horse could beat this lot.

 

[Jars458]

Rain Gauge
Maythehorsebewithyou
Ethereal


other good chances: every horse


I have never tipped the winner of the Cup since I have been in Australia, which was 1987

In fact, don't think I have ever had a top five horse.

So don't put your money on the three above!!

 

[super-dogs]

Originally posted by Jars458
Rain Gauge
Maythehorsebewithyou
Ethereal


other good chances: every horse


I have never tipped the winner of the Cup since I have been in Australia, which was 1987

In fact, don't think I have ever had a top five horse.

So don't put your money on the three above!!

I dont like that!
My uncle could win 250,000 if Rain Gauge gets up!

2 Months ago he put on 3 bets.
$50 on Etheral and Rain Gauge for the caufield and Melbourne cup double! It was paying 700 to 1

$100 on Northerly and Rain Gauge Cox and Melbourne cup double! It was paying 500 to 1

and he also had a tripple for Northerly, Rain Gauge and Etheral. It was paying alot of money I believe and he put $50 on that.

So If my uncle sees u havent tipped a horse right since u have been in Australia. He isnt going to feel happy!

 

[mud n blood]

Just drew Big Pat in my sweep that's 2k for first .... sounds great thus far!

 

[Blues_Brat]

I once got the trifecta in the Cup, but that was a mystery bet anyway!. The Cup is a tipsters nightmare so I don't even bother trying to pick one.

 

[Jars458]

Originally posted by super-dogs


I dont like that!
My uncle could win 250,000 if Rain Gauge gets up!

2 Months ago he put on 3 bets.
$50 on Etheral and Rain Gauge for the caufield and Melbourne cup double! It was paying 700 to 1

$100 on Northerly and Rain Gauge Cox and Melbourne cup double! It was paying 500 to 1

and he also had a tripple for Northerly, Rain Gauge and Etheral. It was paying alot of money I believe and he put $50 on that.

So If my uncle sees u havent tipped a horse right since u have been in Australia. He isnt going to feel happy!

Yeah well sorry about that.


I did once pick Surfers Paradise to win the Cox Plate after hearing Bruce Mac and Keith Hillier talk about it on Sportsworld

That's why I thought about Backing Northerly for the Cox - but didn't do it.


I must be due for a winner though?

 

[SPUNKY_MONKEY45]

hmm big pat....LOL!!!...um YIPYIO sounds like my cup a tea as well....

 

[sabre_ac]

None of you know what your talking about

I am still in shock after Alfs trifecta last year that he tipped weeks out.
So here is my tip.
Do as alf does

 

[IAMDASH]

I am working around the following for my multiples:

Sky Heights
Big Pat
Ethereal
Rain Gauge
Celstial Show
Hill of Grace
Spirit of Westbury
Maythehorsebewithu
Karasi

This is a bastard of a race for tipping a winner but if I had to I would consider Hill of Grace a good each way prospect. Ran 2nd in the Mackinnon, 4th in the Caulfield Cup. Shes got her hoof on the till and if the sting is out of the ground get on board in a big way.

Four out of the past five winners have been placed in the MV cup, the Mackinnon or the Caulfield Cup. Also look strongly at 4-6 year olds who have placed in these races.

Take all this with a grain of salt. I have only tipped the cup winner twice. Just a Dash and Empire Rose. I shed tears when the King got rolled in 1982.

Other than the cup the rest of the days racing is appalling. Save your oxfords for Oaks day.

 

[Catman]

For what its worth here is my Cup picks.

1. Hill Of Grace- Cannot believe the ridiculous odds being offered for her. Her form is excellent. Was charging home at the end of the Caulfield Cup and on Saturday in the Mackinnon.

2. Rain Gauge- Bred to run about 1000m, yet here he is a top chance for the Melbourne Cup. Huge win in the M.V Cup.

3. Celestial Show- Forgotten horse. Was beaten by about half a length in the Caulfield Cup. Has proved she can run the distance. No weight, good apprentice jockey aboard.

Best Outsider- Karasi- Will run the distance.

Other chances to.... Spirit Of Westbury, Big Pat, Sky Heights and Persian Punch.