Who's going to win the cox plate?

[TheMase]

who?

 

[Mags]

Sunline with Northely not far behind.

Mags

 

[Shermanator]

1st Sunline
2nd Universal Prince
3rd Northerly
4th Viscount/Silvano

Put your money on it!

 

[Fall Out Boy]

IMHO, there's only tw ways that Sunline can get beaten, a) if Silvano is special, or b) if something drives her nuts up front leaving her a sitting duck for Universal Prince.

Cheers

 

[dees01]

Sunline to win with Universal Prince to fly home, just like in the Turnball Stakes a few weeks a go.

 

[Rusty Brookes]

I'm taking a gamble and going with Silvano. If they've brought a horse in from Germany, you'd imagine it would be pretty good.

On a side note, my horse of the Spring Carnival has been Pernod. Good drink and a good horse. It's kept me in front so far.

 

[Benoit is god]

Rusty your horse beat my horse of the Carnival on Saturday in Kaemess.
Got great odds seeing it should have won its 2 previous starts and just got done one the line.
the sectionals run by the 2 on a wet track where outstanding.
But then not quite as good as Cassidy on Inaflury in the cup during the middle stages.
b*stard should be rubbed out for life
but got the Quin with Kaemess and Pernod in the next so all was well

 

[CURVE]

Northerly win stopping Sunline from equalling the record of three sucessive Cox Plates set by the world all-time greatest horse, Kingston Town.

 

[Benoit is god]

oh and Sunline is pretty much a cert.
for Saturday small field set for the race
little race in the next few days will see her start odds on

 

[The Hitman]

Sunline will sh*t it in...

The Hitman

 

[Shermanator]

Originally posted by Benoit is god
But then not quite as good as Cassidy on Inaflury in the cup during the middle stages.
b*stard should be rubbed out for life

Totally agree B.i.g, that ride was a joke! (similar ride to Daitribe in the big one last year).
He single handlely fuked both races.

Even though I'm a Sandgroper, I would love for Northerly to win the Plate from barrier 3, but the mighty mare Sunline is a "special" type and the way Universal Prince has been running it will be a big ask.

Also, they reckon Silvano's trackwork has been amazing, it beat Persian Punch (?I think) by 10 lengths yesterday morning.

 

[walshy1993]

i cant see anyone beating the queen, she is a superstar
and she proved last year, barrier 8 wont worry here

northerly did beat her last start, but i think sat might be a bit different

sunline to beat northerly by 2 lengths

anyone could finish third

 

[sainter]

I'll go for the three year old.

I was the night meeting around 3-4 weeks back and Viscount won easily.

Obviously this is a significant step up in quality but $13 represents good each way odds.

 

[mantis]

Walshy

What I want to know is, who do I put in my trifecta for the Melbourne Cup this year? Less than 2 weeks to go, hope you can pick it for me again this year.

 

[Chris_23]

Right now i'd stick with Northerly. Sunline is going well but lets not forget that Northerly beat Sunline at the Valley when it had absolutely no right to win, it was in the Feehan stakes i think...

Northerly was...

- First up.
- Running at a very unsuitable distance.
- Coming off some terrible trackwork during the week.

Sunline was...

- At her favourite track.
- 3 runs back from a spell, nearing full fitness.

I just think all signs point to Northerly. Don't get me wrong though, i wouldn't be at all surprised to see Sunline win. I just don't think she's going as well as she was last year, and Northerly is S P E C I A L

Silvano worked the house down yesterday apparently. Persian Punch is a two-miler, so i'm not surprised with the ease of the win but they said that Silvano had an explosive turn of foot. I'll chuck him in for second.

My 'Expert' tips

1. Northerly
2. Silvano
3. Sunline

Good luck.

 

[Stucey]

Go Referral. I put $100 on major upset, so at $51, that's a fair bit of moolaa!!

 

[Top Dog]

SILVANO

Im on a roll so far in the Carnival and I love this horse

 

[OutKast]

Think it will be a battle between two horses...Universal Prince and Silvano. Hopefully the on pace jostling around the turn between Sunline, Northerly and Viscount will allow the swoopers to get up, with Universal Prince edging out Silvano and Sunline holding out for third.

Originally posted by Benoit is god
Rusty your horse beat my horse of the Carnival on Saturday in Kaemess.
Got great odds seeing it should have won its 2 previous starts and just got done one the line.
the sectionals run by the 2 on a wet track where outstanding.
But then not quite as good as Cassidy on Inaflury in the cup during the middle stages.
b*stard should be rubbed out for life
but got the Quin with Kaemess and Pernod in the next so all was well

I feel your pain bud, I was on both Kaemess and Inaflury...i'm a huge fan of anything trained by Cliff Brown. Kaemess has gotta be the unluckiest horse of the carnival so far, and well who knows what really happened with Inaflury. Luckily Citra's Prince got up in the Coongy and I had a bit each way on Celestial Show in the Cup (how that horse started longest in the field amazed me) so it wasn't a bad day after all!

 

[Santos L Helper]

I can't see how people get excited about circus short people in crazy silk pyjamas riding next weeks dog food around a track........that's not sport.

 

[Benoit is god]

yeah Kaemess has been very stiff so far this spell
she was almost on platform 3 at Caulfeild station at stages she was that wide 3 runs back.
and then at Flemington i think the jockey went Via Highpoint
then last week was picked up in the last stride by a very very good horse.
Must win a race over the Flemington Carnival sometime i think.
Saying that i have been on her at
$17 for 2nd.
$43 for 4th
and
$25 for 2nd
so she will prpably get up as about $5 or something
but as long as she wins i dont mind.

 

[CJ]

Here is my tip:

1). Silvano
2). Northerly
3). Sunline

 

[BUBBALOUIS]

im a big Northerly fan, that horse has character and spunk..

I cant believe the Melbourne media jumping of Sunline though, almost all 'experts' are picking Silvano or Universal Prince .... to my mind the winner will have to beat Sunline if its gonna salute, wouldnt be surprised if Silvano started favourite!

 

[The Starchild]

Does anyone know of a board which specialises in equine discussion???

Preferably based in the UK or USA, somewhere that has some knowledge of Silvano and can be objective.

Can I enlighten you all to something??? The Breeders Cup is on this weekend and Silvano isn't there, if it was really one of the best horses in the world you'd think it'd be over at Belmont Park racing for 4 times as much money as they'll run for tomorrow at the Valley. I'm of the opinion that overseas horses are better than ours but I'm not sure about this one.

 

[Danny Chook Fan Club]

I'm with the mare at this stage. I just can't forget the media jumping off her last year, and then she walked in.

My thoughts:

1 - Northerly: You can't knock 10 wins and four placings from 15 starts. This is a class animal who will take a position. D Oliver is a genius, and if it comes down to the jockeys making the difference, Northerly wins.

2 - Silvano: Obviously a top liner, but as Starchild points out, it is Breeders Cup time, and with winning American experience (Arlington Millions, no slackers race that one) you would have expected him to be there. Key factors are horse and jockey having their first sight of the Valley, which is amongst the most "specialised" tracks in the country. Some horses just can't go there, be it the tight track or the StrathAyr. I've got a feeling Silvano will get into silly odds tomorrow (and that's anything less than 4-1 in this field), and I'm happy to risk him.

3 - Caitano: If anyone can point me in the direction of the last horse to win a Cox Plate when it was set for the Melbourne Cup, I'd be most appreciative. Maybe Kingston Town (1982) or Dulcify (1979), but we're talking about freaks with those two. Cant have him.

4 - Referral: He ran a place last year, but that was seven lengths from the winner. A similar finish will have him sixth or seventh this year.

5 - King Keitel: Hard to see how this horse gets a run while two others are knocked back. Very good neddy at his best, but he's been up forever and is at the end of his tether. No.

6 - Universal Prince: The trap horse. Have a look at the winning percentages of Sunline (69%), Northerly (67%), Viscount (43%) and Silvano (44%). The hallmark of a top wfa racehorse. Universal Prince has only saluted six times in twenty starts. 30%. Don't forget that most of those were restricted to his age group, and the 2000 three-year-old crop is not an especially good one (note that there is no other four year old in the race, usually the age where a wfa horse is at or near its top). Universal Prince has a great wfa form line for a Melbourne Cup horse, and could run a place here, but I'm prepared to say that it just doesn't have the class to beat this field.

7 - Sunline: She's brilliant anywhere else, but at the Valley she has two more gears. The wide draw will actually work in her favour, because she'll have to work across horses inside her to take a spot and won't be cluttered in the run. Watch for her to take off at the 800m again this year, to try and counteract the supposed advantage that the others have in finishing speed. Will lead around the turn and remains the one to beat.

8 - Viscount: Surround, Red Anchor and Octagonal are the only three-year-olds to win this race in the last 25 years. Each was a freak, a brilliant horse. Viscount isn't within lengths of any of those three. Can't win.

My market (112%):
7-4 Sunline
11-4 Northerly
9-2 Silvano
9-1 Universal Prince
12-1 Viscount
16-1 Caitano
33-1 Referal
50-1 King Keitel

1 - Sunline, 2 - Northerly, 3 - Silvano

 

[Danny Chook Fan Club]

Originally posted by The Starchild
Does anyone know of a board which specialises in equine discussion???

Deej, this might be of some use to you:

http://boards.espn.go.com/cgi/espn/request.dll?LIST&room=other_horse