Why are so many bagging Kennedy ?

[wozzie]

Isn't the attitude of "we'll fix them, let Judd go into the PSD, and Richmond will get him" a little childish, and what! Eagles get nothing. No Winners there. We will never get what Judd is worth, he is the best player in the AFL when fit, and he's gone whether we like it or not. The only option is to get the best possible available for him and whether you like it or not it appears to be 3, 20 and Kennedy.
Josh has only just turned 20, both parents tall, with AIS, State and National League Basketball backgrounds. He would still have a few more cms of growing in him. Fast for his size, great vertical leap and reach, back in his home State with the right coaching could be a handy pick up. Saw him play for Australia Vs Ireland, with his height, speed and bouncing the (round) ball looked very impressive. With Broadbridges experience in developing young players, we could be on a winner.
Little bit laid back, but doesn't deserve the bagging, he's not Judd but who is?

 

[windows]

The kid works his guts out. In his first preseason he couldnt lift weights at all due to shoulder surgery. Despite having been given an 'out' he still did a gruelling mountain climb along with all the other players with his arm and shoulder in a sling (which I say just to given an example of his attitude and work ethic around the club). He really has never had a good crack at it. He just kept getting niggling injuries (only had 2 years remember). Whenever he appeared in the VFL he showed plenty. At AFL level he was a bit lost but he also rarely got CHF all to himself (with either Whitnall, Waite or Fisher taking up his opportunities). He spent a lot of time on the bench. Truly, he showed things at VFL level that will transcend to AFL and you will be very pleased to have him. Hard working, good work at ground level. Good awareness and judgement. Makes good decisions. Uses the ball ok. Hands ok. Is a bit slow but has great endurance and will keep presenting.

He seems to be yours now. Give the kid a break. Give him a chance. He will have a serious crack for you and I will be surprised if he isn't a 200 game WC player.

 

[Embers]

Because hes crap and would only be playing 2nd fiddle to Mitch Brown. We dont need a third choice KPP forward for a gun like Judd.

 

[cong8]

As a blues supporter - I'd be bitterly disappointed if we lose kennedy in a trade for Judd though I accept that it is quite likely due to the fact that he is a good young Key forward from WA (fits a WC team need, and is WA'n). I'd much rather trade 20+say thornton/russell for a pick 8-13ish and forward that to WC with pick 3.

FWIW, consider the following 2 points when you assess kennedy's worth/ability as a player

Firstly, ability - a quick comparison between cloke (considered one of the best young Key forwards atm). Cloke turned 20 earlier in the year. As a comparison between cloke and kennedy though kennedy is about 6 months younger than cloke. More importantly however is the number of preseasons each player has completed

Cloke - been on an AFL list for 3 seasons and has completed 3 preseasons (unless the shoulder at end of 06 was a total reconstruction)

kennedy - been on an AFL list for 2 seasons and has completed only 1 preseason (missed the first due to shoulder surgery which would have prevented any weights programs). An extra couple preseasons of weights programs will make a massive difference to how kennedy can compete.

Also a comparison of the stats between both players for their 2nd season on an AFL list
cloke - 15 games, 146disposals, 79 marks, 6 goals 12 behinds, 18 ho, 17 tackles
kennedy - 13 games, 97 disposals, 50 marks, 6 goals, 5 behinds, 40ho, 27 tackles

so basically cloke had more possessions/game, they had a similar % of possessions from marks (approx 50%), same number of goals kicked (cloke had 7 more shots, lower accuracy), kennedy had twice the number hitouts, and 1.5 times more tackles.

Without going into time on game and the actual roles of each player within the team the stats would suggest a similar level of output at year 2 for both players (despite kennedy having 1 less preseason to bulk up)



Secondly, trade value of the individual player by comparing what was obtained for a similarly young KF a couple of years back (Fergus Watts)

watts was drafted at pick 14 as a 197cm key forward - played 5 games over 2 seasons for the crows and was traded to the saints for pick 17. ie in 2 years, and having done nothing at AFL level slipped 3 spots from where he was originally picked.

Kennedy was drafted at pick 4, also as a 197cm key forward and has played 22 games over 2 seasons (ie definitely shown more than Watts). Even if kennedy slipped twice the number of spots as watts did, that would still place him at top 10 value (ie a far cry from the packet of chips arguement)

Barry brooks provides another comparison - drafted at 15 in 2001 by port, didnt play a game and the saints picked him up the following year by trading picks 7 & 31 (or might be just 6 - wiki has 2 different versions of the trade).

Fact is unless something goes horribly wrong with a player, an early first round draftee wont lose much value in their first couple of seasons.

 

[West Coast 06]

Barry brooks provides another comparison - drafted at 15 in 2001 by port, didnt play a game and the saints picked him up the following year by trading picks 7 & 31 (or might be just 6 - wiki has 2 different versions of the trade).

Fact is unless something goes horribly wrong with a player, an early first round draftee wont lose much value in their first couple of seasons.

Thanks for the comparisons. What you have written here, without realising it, is actually what is pissing West Coast supporters off.

You are saying that a pick 15 who has never played a game was traded for picks 7 and 31.

We are trading Judd, originally a pick 3 and now widely considered the best player in the comp with a Brownlow, Norm Smith, two AA selections and Premiership to his name, in his prime, and you offer us pick 3 and Kennedy????

It is nothing personal against Kennedy, just that we are rightly feeling just a little ripped off at that offer. With good reason! You know it, Carlton know it, West Coast know it and anyone with half a brain knows it.

 

[happy_eagle]

Okay you spade !

[Am I allowed to call a spade a moron ?]

Kennedy has become the kid that ignorant 'never-has-beens' like you can kick around, without thinking. full stop.

geez mate, i was only joking

its just that he hasnt done much to prove himself YET, however i think that if we give him time, he may just be a great player

 

[cong8]

Thanks for the comparisons. What you have written here, without realising it, is actually what is pissing West Coast supporters off.

You are saying that a pick 15 who has never played a game was traded for picks 7 and 31.

We are trading Judd, originally a pick 3 and now widely considered the best player in the comp with a Brownlow, Norm Smith, two AA selections and Premiership to his name, in his prime, and you offer us pick 3 and Kennedy????

It is nothing personal against Kennedy, just that we are rightly feeling just a little ripped off at that offer. With good reason! You know it, Carlton know it, West Coast know it and anyone with half a brain knows it.

Whilst I understand the angst of WC supporters (felt the same way when hammill left though probably more so given he wore number 4 for a season), again you have to look at precedents for trades.

Of the recent big name trades, ottens netted the best result in terms of draft picks.

Ottens went for picks 12 and 16.

There is little doubt Judd >> ottens, and if the blues were offering picks 12 & 16 you would rightly claim that is was unreasonable. However, for most drafts it would be widely regarded as

top 5 pick > top 10 pick>top 15 pick>top 20 pick ie pick 3 >> pick 12 > pick 16

So in essence it will come down to whether you see value in kennedy - historical trades would suggest that kennedy would still command at least a top10 pick in an open market (see my previous post).

I think a trade of 3+10 (effective worth) is reasonable compensation for judd, and compared to other trades (ie ottens) is a much stronger package. As I also mentioned in my earlier post, I'd rather the blues trade 20+player for the early pick (8-13) and keep kennedy. There are 2 reasons for that,
1. it negates the need to subjectively value kennedy (for what he has done and knowing our team structure, game plan etc I'd still have him at top5 pick in value)
2. Kennedy already has 2 years of development in him - any young KP (or even midfielders) we draft to replace him would need to have another 2 years of development put into them ($, but more importantly time)

 

[cong8]

You are saying that a pick 15 who has never played a game was traded for picks 7 and 31.

thought I'd expand on this.

pick 15 in a super draft was considered worthy of pick 7 and 31 in a normal draft).

The trade itself isnt saying the player in question was actually worth pick 7 & 31 in absolute terms - what the trade suggests is that for a young KP player, they are unlikely to suddenly lose their value (relative to the original draft position) within their first couple of seasons. That is of course unless there are massive concerns over injury, offfield misdemeanour or player commitment. FWIW kennedy has had none of those issues (compared to our other fowards - fev - off/onfield issues, fisher/waite - injuries).

If you can accept the above point then you will probably be more accepting of an offer of pick 3+kennedy (ie a top 10 pick in a firesale) for judd.

 

[greennick]

thought I'd expand on this.

pick 15 in a super draft was considered worthy of pick 7 and 31 in a normal draft).

The trade itself isnt saying the player in question was actually worth pick 7 & 31 in absolute terms - what the trade suggests is that for a young KP player, they are unlikely to suddenly lose their value (relative to the original draft position) within their first couple of seasons. That is of course unless there are massive concerns over injury, offfield misdemeanour or player commitment. FWIW kennedy has had none of those issues (compared to our other fowards - fev - off/onfield issues, fisher/waite - injuries).

If you can accept the above point then you will probably be more accepting of an offer of pick 3+kennedy (ie a top 10 pick in a firesale) for judd.

I think it will depend on what our recruiters value him at. We don't care where your recrutiers did. More than likely if you had our recruiters your picks over the past 6 years would have been very different.

 

[daddy_4_eyes]

I realize he's got a lot of recent attention by being associated with the Carlton deal/no deal.

Okay, I understand that most folks here that are so ready to slag anyone , are the usual fat-gutted, fat-assed 'uncos' who couldn't even get a kick at Armadale Train Station at midnight, but why are so many so willing to join in on this 'gang-bang' of a guy that hasn't done anything wrong ?

Maybe it doesn't matter, but I'm ashamed of those tosser Eagles/WA supporters who say stuff like "Dud, Spud, Crap, etc, etc.. we don't want him !'

And then when he (maybe) responds with 'Well, I don't want to be there, if that's how they feel', you get guys like Embers saying 'Told ya !!"

I don't know how good he is as a footballer, but WCE 'supporters' here on BF have been utterly disgraceful towards him.

Piss poor

As much as I agree with your sentiment, I have to defend my fellow WCE supporters. Its not so much that we don't want Kennedy, its that we don't want him to be the selling point in any Judd trade. Lets not kid ourselves, the kid has achieved nothing at AFL level and from what we've seen he will never be anything more than an average player (let him prove me wrong).

 

[princess park]

If you don't like him and you feel he won't fit into your team then don't take him. Take Bower who I think (after a slow beginning) will turn out to be a real attacking HBF'er

 

[sydney eagle]

If you don't like him and you feel he won't fit into your team then don't take him. Take Bower who I think (after a slow beginning) will turn out to be a real attacking HBF'er

We might take Bower. However many Carlton supporters are saying "take Kennedy or get nothing" and I honestly can't see the value of Kennedy to the Eagles.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Josh has been asked about possible trades as has Bower. Josh is not sold on moving but his father has stated that Josh is a professional footballer and will go anywhere to play AFL. It has been said that Bower is more homesick. Bower has shown as much, probably more than Kennedy especially towards the end of the year. 193cm running half back, pinch hitting KPP, courageous. Probably plays on without being aware of what is around too often for my liking but that is more to do with the gameplan we had in place. Thing is though that Bower was a pick #20 and Kennedy a pick #4 in the same draft so Kennedy's perceived potential would be seen as higher.

Craig Kelly was just on SEN. He manages Kennedy apparently and has said that the players go on holidays after leaving instructions and are told pretty much not to listen to too much of what is said.

I really hope that Kennedy does not see it as an insult that he is on the table. In most cases a player would, but to think you could be the deciding factor in a deal for Chris Judd, that should be a confidence builder more than anything. He will be aware he is on a hiding to nothing when he comes to the Eagles though as many are looking for him to fail so their words do not come back and bite them. Hopefully they would be happy for him to do well for the Eagles and happy to be wrong on him.

I would always watch Josh with a bit of regret if the trade goes through. He is such a likeable lad.

 

[Keys]

Josh has been asked about possible trades as has Bower. Josh is not sold on moving but his father has stated that Josh is a professional footballer and will go anywhere to play AFL. It has been said that Bower is more homesick. Bower has shown as much, probably more than Kennedy especially towards the end of the year. 193cm running half back, pinch hitting KPP, courageous. Probably plays on without being aware of what is around too often for my liking but that is more to do with the gameplan we had in place. Thing is though that Bower was a pick #20 and Kennedy a pick #4 in the same draft so Kennedy's perceived potential would be seen as higher.

Craig Kelly was just on SEN. He manages Kennedy apparently and has said that the players go on holidays after leaving instructions and are told pretty much not to listen to too much of what is said.

I really hope that Kennedy does not see it as an insult that he is on the table. In most cases a player would, but to think you could be the deciding factor in a deal for Chris Judd, that should be a confidence builder more than anything. He will be aware he is on a hiding to nothing when he comes to the Eagles though as many are looking for him to fail so their words do not come back and bite them. Hopefully they would be happy for him to do well for the Eagles and happy to be wrong on him.

I would always watch Josh with a bit of regret if the trade goes through. He is such a likeable lad.

As far as I'm concerned, if Kennedy comes to the Eagles it will be because our recruiters feel he is of value to us. As such I will hope that he does well, more than just well actually and I'd hope that our supporters make him feel welcome.

 

[Embers]

As far as I'm concerned, if Kennedy comes to the Eagles it will be because our recruiters feel he is of value to us. As such I will hope that he does well, more than just well actually and I'd hope that our supporters make him feel welcome.

No one will see it that way though. The media will play him up as Judds replacement and he will be given that tag for the next few years. He will be under more pressure then any other young Eagle if he comes and im not surprised to see that he doesnt want that added pressure

 

[ChipDouglas]

As a blues supporter - I'd be bitterly disappointed if we lose kennedy in a trade for Judd though I accept that it is quite likely due to the fact that he is a good young Key forward from WA (fits a WC team need, and is WA'n). I'd much rather trade 20+say thornton/russell for a pick 8-13ish and forward that to WC with pick 3.

FWIW, consider the following 2 points when you assess kennedy's worth/ability as a player

Firstly, ability - a quick comparison between cloke (considered one of the best young Key forwards atm). Cloke turned 20 earlier in the year. As a comparison between cloke and kennedy though kennedy is about 6 months younger than cloke. More importantly however is the number of preseasons each player has completed

Cloke - been on an AFL list for 3 seasons and has completed 3 preseasons (unless the shoulder at end of 06 was a total reconstruction)

kennedy - been on an AFL list for 2 seasons and has completed only 1 preseason (missed the first due to shoulder surgery which would have prevented any weights programs). An extra couple preseasons of weights programs will make a massive difference to how kennedy can compete.

Also a comparison of the stats between both players for their 2nd season on an AFL list
cloke - 15 games, 146disposals, 79 marks, 6 goals 12 behinds, 18 ho, 17 tackles
kennedy - 13 games, 97 disposals, 50 marks, 6 goals, 5 behinds, 40ho, 27 tackles

so basically cloke had more possessions/game, they had a similar % of possessions from marks (approx 50%), same number of goals kicked (cloke had 7 more shots, lower accuracy), kennedy had twice the number hitouts, and 1.5 times more tackles.

Without going into time on game and the actual roles of each player within the team the stats would suggest a similar level of output at year 2 for both players (despite kennedy having 1 less preseason to bulk up)



Secondly, trade value of the individual player by comparing what was obtained for a similarly young KF a couple of years back (Fergus Watts)

watts was drafted at pick 14 as a 197cm key forward - played 5 games over 2 seasons for the crows and was traded to the saints for pick 17. ie in 2 years, and having done nothing at AFL level slipped 3 spots from where he was originally picked.

Kennedy was drafted at pick 4, also as a 197cm key forward and has played 22 games over 2 seasons (ie definitely shown more than Watts). Even if kennedy slipped twice the number of spots as watts did, that would still place him at top 10 value (ie a far cry from the packet of chips arguement)

Barry brooks provides another comparison - drafted at 15 in 2001 by port, didnt play a game and the saints picked him up the following year by trading picks 7 & 31 (or might be just 6 - wiki has 2 different versions of the trade).

Fact is unless something goes horribly wrong with a player, an early first round draftee wont lose much value in their first couple of seasons.

I can't beleve you're comparing Cloke and Kennedy. FYI Travis has completed ONE preseason at Collingwood. First year players don't do the full work load because their bodies can't handle it. His second year he had a jaw operation and couldn't eat and lost about ten kilos which wrecked his preseason and his first half of 2006. In 2007 he did the full preseason and became the player we knew he would, where is the comparison of their 2007 statistics?

Josh Kennedy projects as an Earl Spalding type and it appears at this stage that he can only play one position. That position is currently held by Hansen with Mitch Brown waiting in the wings so where does Kennedy play? Or are West Coast suppoed to fill their list with backup types as a replacements for the best player in the land when their premeisrship window is open now.

 

[Kempie]

As far as I'm concerned, if Kennedy comes to the Eagles it will be because our recruiters feel he is of value to us. As such I will hope that he does well, more than just well actually and I'd hope that our supporters make him feel welcome.

If they don't, I might start looking for a purple outfit

No one will see it that way though. The media will play him up as Judds replacement and he will be given that tag for the next few years. He will be under more pressure then any other young Eagle if he comes and im not surprised to see that he doesnt want that added pressure

Who knows what the media will 'play up' ? He'll be under no pressure from any fan I know, but no doubt he'll be under pressure from you, Embers, who have gone out of your way to heap sh1t on him.

Personally, I hope he gets back here, is genuinely welcomed by his team-mates (and they're all that matters anyway) and becomes a great player for us. That's as much for being able to say 'F.U. Embers !' as anything else.

 

[Kempie]

I really hope that Kennedy does not see it as an insult that he is on the table. In most cases a player would, but to think you could be the deciding factor in a deal for Chris Judd, that should be a confidence builder more than anything. He will be aware he is on a hiding to nothing when he comes to the Eagles though as many are looking for him to fail so their words do not come back and bite them. Hopefully they would be happy for him to do well for the Eagles and happy to be wrong on him.

I would always watch Josh with a bit of regret if the trade goes through. He is such a likeable lad.

Good comments from you again, TODN.

Pity about that Pratt pr!ck though, eh ?

Good old Carlton corruption to the end ?