Draft Watcher Young Talent Time - A 2012 Mock Draft

[SumTingWong]

Hi Chris. Tom Lee. Saw him play for Claremont v Port Melb on the weekend. Looks a real talent and remember him being mentioned as a possible draft pick last year. Do you have any info as to why he isn't on an AFL list?

 

[Chris25]

I think I was probably leading the Lee bandwagon last year, clearly I took my foot off the pedal because it seems like everyone has jumped on in last few weeks.

No idea why he wasn't rookie listed. But I suppose last year he was still rotating through the forward line, back line and ruck. He hadn't been settled into a position, so teams wouldn't have gotten to see any sustained performances from him in one specific role. That might have hurt him. Also, he just doesn't look like an AFL KPP. He isn't flashy, he isn't a big unit and he doesn't look like he'll crash packs. As a forward, he reminds me of Harry Taylor. Is that a good thing? Who knows.

I definitely still think he could fill a role at AFL level though.

 

[Dale4captain]

When was an update due Chris? really rate your work and would love a post champs version.

 

[Chris25]

It had a small update after the Championships, mainly just some changes to the third round. As well as some more descriptions, and I added AFL Comparisons for the first two rounds.

 

[year of the roo]

It had a small update after the Championships, mainly just some changes to the third round. As well as some more descriptions, and I added AFL Comparisons for the first two rounds.

With GWS looking likely to finish last now after Gold Coast's good win - does that mean you change your order in the top 2-5? Will Gold Coast draft another ruckman in Grundy?

 

[Chris25]

With GWS looking likely to finish last now after Gold Coast's good win - does that mean you change your order in the top 2-5? Will Gold Coast draft another ruckman in Grundy?

In the short term, I don't know what I'll do with my draft.

In the long term, if Gold Coast finish with #2, I fully expect them to deal it to GWS for a mini draft pick. No doubt they would greatly benefit from a Grundy or Toumpas, but I think they would value a KPP like Hogan more or they might just want the best kid in Australia in Martin. So GWS will still get Grundy, as well as taking Whitfield at #1.

 

[manny100]

In the short term, I don't know what I'll do with my draft.

In the long term, if Gold Coast finish with #2, I fully expect them to deal it to GWS for a mini draft pick. No doubt they would greatly benefit from a Grundy or Toumpas, but I think they would value a KPP like Hogan more or they might just want the best kid in Australia in Martin. So GWS will still get Grundy, as well as taking Whitfield at #1.

Depends also on pressures within the club. Can they wait another 12 months to get what would be a number 2 pick on board - can maybe play straight away if taken by GC? Blight's already in the coaches box!!
If GC give up no 2 pick they would probably want some 'lose change back', eg second round pick or mid/later first round (not loose change at mid first round). If GWS are desperate enough for both Whitfield and Grundy they will most likely deal along these lines.

 

[warren15]

Shannon taylor is one that would have to go in the draft, great skill, great speed and such an exciting player to watch

 

[Snoop Dog]

Shannon taylor is one that would have to go in the draft, great skill, great speed and such an exciting player to watch

yeah C25 I am a bit surprised you have taylor dropping. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder but have seen enough over a couple of years to suggest he deserves to be higher and I would rate him higher than Mac, Warrell etc bc I think he probably can go thru the mid better (but that will depend on testing etc). I do think an issue for Shannon will be whats best for him and his family so that may sway it but I would think he is still top 50. The one that has fallen I think is Yarran. Shell fo the player from last year.

I like Lee as well but have also watched Tighe with interest over there and think WA probably have a couple of the better talls in the state leagues. There is another kid over there I quite like who I think might be taken but will leave his name anon for now.

Bit surprised you didnt have Ben Ross. I think he is just a jet who should be on an AFL list and my current view is he would have to be around 30. Am also pretty keen on Marlon Motlop as a mature draftie. Seen some of his footy and he has to much class for WAFL. Like Ross just needed to get fit IMO. Also a bit surprised a couple of the more promising SANFL mature agers arent in. One in particular I think will go.

May have it wrong but I didnt see Murdoch, McDonald or McDonough in your list (may have missed them) and was a bit surprised. I have Murdoch quite high.

Anyway terrific read and FWIW am quickly coming to the view this draft may not be as rich as I have been thinking. I get to 40 and am confident there are some very good types but after that am struggling with how many will make it and hence thinking some state league types might come in then whereas I was originally thinking they would be more rookie listings this year.

 

[Chris25]

Realistically, Shannon Taylor will go ahead of the likes of Marvin Warrell and Shaq McKenzie - both of who will more than likely be rookie picks. But I'm not sure quite how high Taylor will go. He hasn't played a lot of football this year, having been pretty busy off the field. And I just have general concerns over his game - ability to go into the midfield, kicking. I have him as a third/fourth round prospect.

As for mature aged players, they never feature heavily in my drafts until later on. Motlop is one I do like, and there are some in the SANFL too who could go late in the draft. Nobody will ever hear me argue that Lee shouldn't be on an AFL list, but I do agree there are better talls out there. I just see him more as a role player, like when a defender is switched to the forward line. He'll come in and do exactly what is asked of him, but might not ever truly cement a best 22 spot.

Brodie Murdoch was the last player I dropped from my draft, I've been a big fan of his since last year as an underaged forward playing for Glenelg. So you don't need to argue his worth to me. I don't think he'll be quite as highly sought after as his brother, so again the third round seems around the mark in my opinion. But I'm confident one team will be getting a bargain. McDonough was in the third round, maybe a bit low considering his performances this year. Because I'm talking up the likes of Sumner, DeMatteis, Johnson and Wallis, someone has to drop to make way for them. And generally it'll be a South Australian, so my draft isn't too biased - even thought SA is the best underage footballing state in the country.

 

[Chris25]

Depends also on pressures within the club. Can they wait another 12 months to get what would be a number 2 pick on board - can maybe play straight away if taken by GC? Blight's already in the coaches box!!

You could easily look at it the other way too - Gold Coast already have O'Meara coming next year, who would have been a top 2 pick. So they wouldn't really be losing that much by doing the mini draft again. This year they lost out, next year will be normal, and the year after that would be amazing.

I know there has been some talk about where would the mini draft eligible players go if they were in this draft, and if I had the #1 pick I would not hesitate in taking Jack Martin. I'd be up there so quickly, Andy D wouldn't know what hit him. He's the best player I've seen come through the underage ranks in some time.

Otherwise, if Hogan was in this draft, I doubt he'd get past the top 5. So either way, Gold Coast would be getting someone worthy of the #2 selection this year, and they'd do so knowing that O'Meara will come in and take the pressure off.

 

[Chris25]

Thanks for your efforts Chris25.

Just wanted to mention the Bulldogs have a 3rd round compo pick activated as a result of losing Sam Reid(the less talented one).
No early mock drafts I've read have actually included it at this point.

Added their extra pick just for you.

 

[DrMubutu]

In the short term, I don't know what I'll do with my draft.

In the long term, if Gold Coast finish with #2, I fully expect them to deal it to GWS for a mini draft pick. No doubt they would greatly benefit from a Grundy or Toumpas, but I think they would value a KPP like Hogan more or they might just want the best kid in Australia in Martin. So GWS will still get Grundy, as well as taking Whitfield at #1.

Interesting.

If this pans out, how would this work re: F/S? If, say, GC say they'll take Viney with pick 2, forcing Melbourne to bid pick 3 for him, and then GC on-trade pick 2, would Melbourne still then be forced to take him with pick 3, or would there be some sort of 're-bidding' process with GWS?

 

[Igloo]

Interesting.

If this pans out, how would this work re: F/S? If, say, GC say they'll take Viney with pick 2, forcing Melbourne to bid pick 3 for him, and then GC on-trade pick 2, would Melbourne still then be forced to take him with pick 3, or would there be some sort of 're-bidding' process with GWS?

F/S is done before trade week. Once the bid is finalised (Melbourne or another club), nothing can be done with that pick except taking Viney. So if Melbourne agree to take him at 3, they have to. If GC say they'll take him at 2, and Melbourne say ok, they have to as well.
If GC bid pick 2, but Melbourne say they'll use pick 3, GC can do whatever they want with pick 2.

 

[Yoda_]

Chris25

You mention Max Duffy was the best player not to be taken in last years draft

How do you compare Duffy to Shane Nelson who some people rated very highly (and no, not just keyboard heroes and youtube experts)?

Be interested to hear your thoughts

 

[Chris25]

No comparison for me.

Duffy is a very talented player, more talented than a lot of players on AFL lists. It's just some other stuff that let him down last year, the sort of stuff only those in the meetings will really know.

Nelson is more your honest battler type player. The guy who would look great in a bottom team, but one who wouldn't be near a team challenging. A bit like Ben Nason at the Tigers, he looked good at first but as Richmond got better, he was left behind.

I think Nelson has a role at AFL level, but Duffy could be a best 22 player.

 

[Godogs247]

Chris I rate Atkins from Calder where do you think he will end up? Also Rennie from stingrays is a smoky good height and great hands-a lot like ohalaron Richmond

 

[Yoda_]

No comparison for me.

Duffy is a very talented player, more talented than a lot of players on AFL lists. It's just some other stuff that let him down last year, the sort of stuff only those in the meetings will really know.

Nelson is more your honest battler type player. The guy who would look great in a bottom team, but one who wouldn't be near a team challenging. A bit like Ben Nason at the Tigers, he looked good at first but as Richmond got better, he was left behind.

I think Nelson has a role at AFL level, but Duffy could be a best 22 player.

I like that comment, puts it into perspective really..

Sounds a lot like Willie Wheeler at Coburg, good at state level, but will probably be left behind by the development of others..

Out of curiosity, could Nelson become a tagger, ala Andrew Carrazo?

 

[TJ1996]

Brodie Grundy is the only ruckman in the draft...interesting...what about Cam Symonds from East Fremantle? Broke into the league side earlier this year and thought he was good in colts last year.

 

[swannies]

Chris, great job, as usual.

Who are these said 19/20 year olds you were talking about? I'm just interested to hear your thoughts and compare notes and players..

Off the top of my head - Jackson Coleman, Michael Musicka, Max Duffy, Aseri Raikiwasa, Louis Egger, Jarrod Harding, Drew Gallard, Anthony Tipungwuti.

Over here in Wait Awhile I like the look of Saunders (ex Claremont colts playing league for South Freo), Nelson (remains one of my favourite mid prospects), Bradshaw, Elisseou, Sinclair (Subi), probably more I can come up with just not at the moment.
Chris and I agree on Busher and Duffy. Also like Faulkner from Swans but would only use a rookie on him and I reckon Blight might get a second chance.

 

[Snoop Dog]

Saw Nelson the other day and just couldn't stop thinking to myself how similar his game style is to Gaff's and how i honestly can't peg that much difference between the two of them. Surely he deserves a spot. He will embarrass a few recruiters one day.

Duffy's the same but to be fair i think there were some other issues for clubs to get comfort with but he will go this year and wouldn't surprise if he was top 50.

I am a big wrap for the kid Gillespie from Claremont. He is 22 but his development potential i think is enormous. Can play fwd & pinch hit ruck, he has speed and a great leap on him and he is super kick for a big boy. I am a big fan. He is my bolter of the year i think. Be interesting to see how many more games he gets in that star studded Tiger side though.

Wilson-King and Hams are to small defenders I think would go. Had Eggar ahead of WK but seen a bit of WK this year and really like his attack on the footy. Reminds me very much of Pickett.

Tom Lee would be another I think will go. Showed a few more dimensions this year and would think a club looking for a decent tall fwd would give him a go.

Ps You see Broomhead and Raikiwasa go around for Port vs Centrals. Very impressive. As was my boy Beard who will never be taken but deserves a chance.

 

[Chris25]

I love Jordan Wilson King. I was talking him up all of last year, so glad Fremantle took him as a rookie.

 

[Snoop Dog]

I love Jordan Wilson King. I was talking him up all of last year, so glad Fremantle took him as a rookie.

forgot he is a rookie of theirs. why isn't he playing chris. i have 3-4 games of his this season and just looks ready to go.

 

[Chris25]

JWK is still a rookie, so there's the whole issue of having to elevate him. And we already have Pearce and Spurr on the senior list, both of whom are currently in our best 22.

Although, I never expected him to play this year. As an attacking rebounder, he looks great. Has the speed and skills, and he is pretty much always looking to take the game on. But he is still learning the defensive side of the game - shutting out an opponent. And he can get himself into a bit of trouble when he tries to do too much.

I was surprised he got through to the rookie draft, and with Roger Hayden mentoring him, I'm pretty confident that he'll prove to be a huge bargain.

 

[Chris25]

Chris I rate Atkins from Calder where do you think he will end up?

Atkins has been in some good form lately, much better than what he put up for Vic Metro. I'm not quite sure where he will go. He doesn't quite have the explosiveness or flair that you'd look for in a first round pick. Rory Sloane and Luke Parker both went around the #40 mark, so that could be a handy guide.

Brodie Grundy is the only ruckman in the draft...interesting...what about Cam Symonds from East Fremantle? Broke into the league side earlier this year and thought he was good in colts last year.

Yeah, only Grundy so far. It's just not a great crop of ruckmen this year. Most of the ruckmen across the country are around the 195cm mark who can jump. So good for their team, but it just wont translate across to AFL. I think most of the ruckmen this year will be taken in the rookie draft, and there will probably be more 'mature aged' ruckmen picked too.

Symonds would be an option, and I was mildly interested in him last year. As you've said, he has made his league debut this year. But really, he hasn't done much. Playing as the second ruckman, he just can't get involved in the play around the ground and is having a minimal impact up forward. Might be a bit of a long shot.