Queensland State Election (31/1/2015) - Labor form govt (Thread pg 54)

[The Old Dark Navy's]

ALP might consider letting the LNP completely hang themselves. Wouldnt last a term

LNP can make a deal not to sell assets but I'm not sure if they can go and do it anyway or it has to go through parliament. If the former, I wouldn't trust them as their whole economic plan is based on the sale .. err lease.

We have to remember that LNP got more of the primary vote and have been beaten on preferences. If they got a term, sold the assets and the sky didn't fall, what is the big ticket item for Labor to campaign on next time? They'd have to go with 'they lied to us again' but if some debt was paid down and economists stayed on board, they can overcome that. I think ALP have to deal. It's a massive gamble.

 

[Lebbo73]

So the state of play. Labor 43 seats, LNP 39, Others 3, In doubt 4. Labor lead in 2, LNP lead in 2. There is a feeling that in Mansfield LNP can overtake ALP on postal votes. No updated count there since last night. 25 votes in it. In Maryborough, ALP in second have to stay ahead of the independent in 3rd once the PUP and other independent preferences have exhausted. Either way ALP or the independent are likely to win.

It is conceivable that Labor will stay stuck on 43 with LNP 42 and others 4 or worse case scenario Maryborough preferences don't flow enough to the independent if he passed ALP and we end up with 43-43. Praying the second doesn't happen.

Both parties have said they make deals with independents and minor parties. KAP are saying that is stupid and someone will have to deal. Obviously their first priority will be no assets so LNP have to undo their whole economic plan to do a deal with them. KAP want stuff for their electorate, jobs, infrastructure. This is where ALP will have to break a promise to take government and do a deal.

If Labor can get 44, I feel sure that Peter Wellington will take their side without a deal being made so Labor haven't broken a promise. Not sure about Foley the independent in Maryborough. He has historically had ties to the National Party.

All morning LNP seats have been flitting from safe to in doubt so there has been some counting there but seemingly not in the 4 we are sweating on.

If the LNP get to 43, Borbidge would be the logical leader. He has the best chance of securing a deal with KAP out of all the LNP potentials.

 

[Tomjas00]

LNP can make a deal not to sell assets but I'm not sure if they can go and do it anyway or it has to go through parliament. If the former, I wouldn't trust them as their whole economic plan is based on the sale .. err lease.

We have to remember that LNP got more of the primary vote and have been beaten on preferences. If they got a term, sold the assets and the sky didn't fall, what is the big ticket item for Labor to campaign on next time? They'd have to go with 'they lied to us again' but if some debt was paid down and economists stayed on board, they can overcome that. I think ALP have to deal. It's a massive gamble.

So what are the ALP going to do about the debt that they have saddled the state with if not asset sales/leases?

After all, they can hardly rely on increased revenues from things such as stamp duty as only bottom feeders will be looking to invest here in the short term

 

[Goldenblue]

Oh the irony of it all. This tosser Gavin King who parked illegally in a disabled parking bay lost his seat to Rob Pyne a man in a wheelchair.

 

[singaport]

If the LNP get to 43, Borbidge would be the logical leader. He has the best chance of securing a deal with KAP out of all the LNP potentials.

Who was the last Nat to get run out of town after 1 term

 

[Hollow Knight]

If the LNP get to 43, Borbidge would be the logical leader. He has the best chance of securing a deal with KAP out of all the LNP potentials.

Rob Borbidge? What the *?

 

[Lebbo73]

Rob Borbidge? What the ****?

I meant Springborg

 

[Hollow Knight]

Oh the irony of it all. This tosser Gavin King who parked illegally in a disabled parking bay lost his seat to Rob Pyne a man in a wheelchair.

Ah Gavin King... a really tragic loss for the ****-shaming and rape-victim blaming community.

 

[Maggie5]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2015/results/seats-in-doubt/
Last counting this morning

 

[carnthemlions]

Ah Gavin King... a really tragic loss for the ****-shaming and rape-victim blaming community.

Probably won't even be able to get his job at the Cairns Post back now. So sad.

 

[DrKrieger]

Rough numbers from the ABC page have both LNP and ALP with ~40% of the vote each, and ~20% divvied between the remaining parties (mostly GRN/PUP)

I'm not sure what to think about that, I would have thought the best way to express dissatisfaction with the government would be to put more votes in for the minor parties/independents, not just vote for the "other" big party. I may be being simplistic, but I would have thought the ideal way to run a government appropriately would be to have a good independent candidate where possible, and the remaining electorates divided up evenly between the minor parties (with a couple LNP/ALP members, but nowhere near enough numbers to have a controlling majority).

TBH am not even sure how well it would work, but provided they just vote on behalf of the best outcome for the state/their electorate instead of forming blocs of power, surely that's the best way?

(Am fully prepared to be called an idiot)

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

So what are the ALP going to do about the debt that they have saddled the state with if not asset sales/leases?

After all, they can hardly rely on increased revenues from things such as stamp duty as only bottom feeders will be looking to invest here in the short term

1. LNP added $14b to that debt.
2. General government debt is somewhere around $42b-$46b, the rest is government owned corporation debt.
3. LNP are looking to pay down a little over $5b on to general government debt, about $18b on corporation debt, $2b on something else and $12b on infrastructure and election promises.
4. Those assets to be leased generate $1.7b per year. Once leased, we lose $150b out of the economy during the 99 years. LNP counted on $1.2b per year less interest as a result of the $18b pay down on corporation debt. They still have the issue of a half of a billion short fall and the fact that you lose that $150b revenue stream even if you were able to pay down debt enough to cut the previous interest rate.
5. Labor had a black hole in their costings as well, but they rectified it before the election. They allowed $6b to be paid in the first term, $12b over 10 years, all from the revenue generated from these assets. They promised little this election so were funding the interest bill instead of spending on infrastructure.
6. Labor are looking at improving and growing public assets to generate more revenue.

Economists found holes in both ideas but Labor rectified theirs 2 days prior to the election while LNP didn't. Labor had to be minimalists on capital spending to do so however but at least keep the revenue streams.

 

[clogged]

IIRC, the last two snap state elections have tended to backfire on the incumbents. Victoria in 1999 and WA in 2008. The 2010 Federal election also almost backfired on Gillard.

Make that three.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Ah Gavin King... a really tragic loss for the ****-shaming and rape-victim blaming community.

There was a real smear campaign by his supporters against his opponent Rob Pyne too. The delicious irony in King's defeat is that Pyne is wheelchair bound.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2015/results/seats-in-doubt/
Last counting this morning
View attachment 106321

Those figures haven't changed from last night from what I can see. The update note seems to just been confirming that nothing is happening.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Whoa, now it is 43-41, 2 seats in doubt, ALP ahead in one, LNP ahead in other.

Mansfield taken away from ALP and given to LNP. Pre-polling or postage votes must be going strongly to LNP. Edit: Just gone back to in doubt but LNP ahead by 500 votes.

ALP have to get Maryborough or they have to negotiate with KAP. ABC had it between LNP and ALP but an independent is close in 3rd and preferences could be a game changer and ABC haven't allowed for it.

44 is the goal for ALP now with Wellington siding with them without doing a deal so they can save face.

LNP can't form government without taking asset leases off the table.

 

[John]

Just read a tweet by Stuckey and she is still talking about "strong" whatever. Really really really not sure they get what has happened.

 

[Hollow Knight]

Just read a tweet by Stuckey and she is still talking about "strong" whatever. Really really really not sure they get what has happened.

Ah, the minister who strongly insisted that our red-tape reduction team be moved out of Economic Development into her department to give credibility to her small business portfolio and then made the strong decision to make us all redundant a few months later because she couldn't budget to save herself.

Had a few months of fun having briefing notes bouncing back to us from her advisor though for "simplification".

Apparently terms such as "regulatory burden" were too much for her.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

43-39

In doubt

Glass House - LNP ahead by 479 with 76% counted
Mansfield - LNP ahead by 495 with 77.6% counted
Whitsunday - LNP ahead by 84 with 77.2% counted
Maryborough - ALP ahead by 1199 with 78.8% counted.

Labor second on primary vote in Maryborough but increased to 1054 lead over independent in third.

There are some 6000 votes for PUP and others in this seat so not sure how preferences will flow.

 

[knife]

Mansfield taken away from ALP and given to LNP. Pre-polling or postage votes must be going strongly to LNP. Edit: Just gone back to in doubt but LNP ahead by 500 votes.

My belief yesterday was that pre-polling voting might be more favourable to the LNP as most of it probably occurred prior to Abbott's knighting fiasco, which I think has had a substantial impact. Possibly such an impact to be the difference between who gets Government.
25%+ of the vote is pre-polling and it will be interesting as they count those votes, whether the difference narrows across all seats.

If the vote does narrow, it will suggest Abbott has potentially cost them the election and will add more fire to the leadership speculation. I don't expect him to survive regardless.

I'm really hoping there will be a good breakdown of pre-poll vs election day votes.

 

[Forward Press]

I thought pre-poll votes were counted with all the 'regular' votes yesterday?

Postal votes tend to favour incumbents anyway, so the LNP gaining ground is entirely unsurprising.

Is it safe to call Annastacia Premier? It still looks unlikely the LNP will match the number of seats gained by the ALP, which makes it harder for them to negotiate to form government.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

My belief yesterday was that pre-polling voting might be more favourable to the LNP as most of it probably occurred prior to Abbott's knighting fiasco, which I think has had a substantial impact. Possibly such an impact to be the difference between who gets Government.
25%+ of the vote is pre-polling and it will be interesting as they count those votes, whether the difference narrows across all seats.

If the vote does narrow, it will suggest Abbott has potentially cost them the election and will add more fire to the leadership speculation. I don't expect him to survive regardless.

I'm really hoping there will be a good breakdown of pre-poll vs election day votes.

Surely the knighting thing was minor in the grand scheme of things and it would be more Abbott in general that had an effect. Assets sales and arrogance are the two big issues for mine and they were set in stone. Any significant narrowing can't be put down to the knighthood IMO. It's just bizarre that something like that could move a swinging voter. I'm really not sure what to think. Today's count has hurt ALP in Mansfield but is going better in Maryborough. Maybe there is no rhyme or reason.

Fortunately there are no other seats that a narrowing could affect at this stage. Most of the margins are decent. I'll panic if any other ALP seats get added to the in doubt list.

Can anybody explain why they can count 60% of votes on election night but it takes them all day to get to 80% the next day? I assume it slows down in the close seats to be more careful but it's weird.

 

[madmug]

I meant Springborg

And you had a shot at Palaszczuk at her early morning brain block over the GST figure of 10%!. You were such a hero over it.

So maybe you're just human as well.

Maybe

 

[campbell]

43-39

In doubt

Glass House - LNP ahead by 479 with 76% counted
Mansfield - LNP ahead by 495 with 77.6% counted
Whitsunday - LNP ahead by 84 with 77.2% counted
Maryborough - ALP ahead by 1199 with 78.8% counted.

Labor second on primary vote in Maryborough but increased to 1054 lead over independent in third.

There are some 6000 votes for PUP and others in this seat so not sure how preferences will flow.

glasshouse wtf they were lnp win. when that change happen.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

I thought pre-poll votes were counted with all the 'regular' votes yesterday?

Postal votes tend to favour incumbents anyway, so the LNP gaining ground is entirely unsurprising.

Is it safe to call Annastacia Premier? It still looks unlikely the LNP will match the number of seats gained by the ALP, which makes it harder for them to negotiate to form government.

Unlikely to be 20-30% postal votes so pre-poll votes are obviously being counted at the moment. Antony Green said that pre-poll votes would be counted after election day votes because they are in thick rubber banded bundles stuffed in the ballot boxes. Must be difficult to get those bands off.

Actually I am sure they want to record the pre-poll trends separately so probably keeping those separate.