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I won't be comfortable till hogan signs.
List Mgmt. List Management - 2015 Contract News
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I won't be comfortable till hogan signs.
Nothing at all, but drafting doesn't happen in retrospect. We have recently recruited Pearce, Taberner, Smith, Apeness, Moller, irish and Vandeluer, plus Gumby. It is a significant investment in tall talent.
No I'm talking about the Lever who plays for Adelaide.
63 disposals, 25 marks, 11 rebound 50's in 4 games.
You do realise that Pearce and Lever were drafted in different years?
Tanner Smith is barely WAFL standard at the moment.
Smith will be lucky to survive delisting at season's end.
Moller is improving but still a long way off AFL standard. Will have to be promoted to senior list at season's end or must be delisted - could go either way.
Hurley is improving but has only played 4 senior WAFL games.
Vandeleur is playing reserves at Peel and will surely get the boot at season's end.
Gumby was last sighted hawking his services as a personal fitness trainer in New York.
We are extremely lucky our KPD injuries have happened at this point of the season.
If they had occurred in August: No Johnson, Dawson, Silvagni for the rest of the season. McPharlin day to day (how do we manage his workload now?).
We didn't have Johnson and McPharlin for last year's finals, how did that go for us?
Banker
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The problem last year was that the club refused to rest both of them, when they need to be managed. Someone like Pearce should have got games last year, even if he didn't deserve it just to have experience. We know now that Silvangi is the most injury prone and we needed to develop back up for that reason.
The big downside now is that Dawson is defs playing finals because he will get in the team by default and its hard to see him stuff to warrant a dropping.
I do not see the downside of playing Dawson in finals
rodney hoo
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Moller will be fine, he's the future, we have griff & sandi plus Clarke & big Jack
I haven't given up on Smith yet still only 21
Hurley is a freebie as was Moller last 2 years Martin Pyke just played his 100th game, took time to develop
You need patience you get one first round pick per year & Freo been successful of late so back end first round, you seem to think that because Lever played 4 games in his third year that all Freo drafting is poor which is not the case, I'm a glass half full man no onegets it always correct.
rodney hoo
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Jake Lever is in his first year (not 3rd) but I still agree with you nonetheless
Yeh I f up there, but my point is it's not an exact science, thanks anyway.
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More Dixon rumours.
Would be a good get. Would think Brisbane have a significant advantage given he is from QLD but maybe the premiership opportunities will help.
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Would be an excellent get ... RTB to get in his ear this week and tell him we run a civilised club and he can have a glass a red occasionally if it helps him sleep!
Banker
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Dawson is certainly a very good defender, but when the whole team is fit its very likely Ibbo might be dropped for him. One player we missed badly in 2013 was Ibbo, as Dawson attacking is very poor.
ydraw
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That's kind of the point. All of our KPPS are "freebies" because we've been completely unwilling to spend a high pick on one with the exception of Apeness. And consquently all of them bar Pearce are struggling at WAFL level.
ydraw
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It's beyond dispute that our drafting of first picks has been poor. Our last six first rounders are Morabito, Pitt, Sheridan, Simpson, Apeness and Weller. Morabito has played more games than all of them put together and he's been injured for 4 years.
What I'm saying is that our strategy has also been poor. Players of the like of Lachie Neale and Michael Walters show that it's very possible to draft high quality mid/smalls with late picks. But you'd be hard pressed to find a single good key forward in the league who went below about pick 18 (Taylor Walker is the only one I can think of, and he was an academy pick). If you want to get one, you have to spend a high pick.
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rodney hoo
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The point I'm making and where I disagree with you isthey have not been there at our pick, so take best available.
rodney hoo
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I see a bit of wafl both the freebies have just play their best games & Tanner had a very good few preseason games, we are in better shape than most clubs due our midfield, anyway we are all entitled to our opinions.
beyond dispute? I don't think so.
I disregard Morabitto and Pitt as they are impossible to assess due to injury/health issues, but it is ironic that you bundle them into part of the poor drafting while at the same time advocating that we should have drafted a player coming off a major injury in Lever.
Sheridan is currently best 22 or thereabouts, which is par for expectations for where he was selected.
Simpson is in my opinion the only poor drafting choice in your list of examples, and sits in the high risk/reward category (along with any player coming of a major injury such as Lever).
Apeness. ... how exactly is this poor drafting? Did you call it as a poor draft selection at the time or have you formed the opinion since he was injured.
Weller is imo an excellent selection and value at his pick in the draft. Clearly the club follows a best available policy in round 1 and they rate his quality above the need that a player such as Lever fills.
Regarding Lever, draft history shows that good KPFs come in round 1, whereas KPDs can be found later. Draft history also shows that best available is the best policy in round 1, and drafting for needs leads to decisions such as Tambling before Pavlich.
You're right, it's actually pretty hard just to get a good key forward outside the top 5.
Here are some of the top tall goal scorers from the last 2 seasons.
Nick Reiwoldt - pick 1
Jarrryd Roughhead - pick 2
Matthew Pavlich - pick 4
Josh Kennedy - pick 4
Lance Franlkin - pick 5
Jake Stringer - pick 5
Lachlan Henderson - pick 8
Mitch Clark - pick 9
Thomas Lynch - pick 11
Jay Schultz - pick 12
Jack Reiwoldt - pick 13
Cameron McCarthy - pick 14
Drew Petrie - pick 23
Jake Carlisle - pick 24
Jack Darling - pick 26
Jack Gunston - pick 29
Kurt Tippet - pick 32
Jarrad Waite - pick 46
Justin Westhoff - pick 71
Jesse Hogan - mini-draft pick 2
Josh Jenkins - rookie draft
Jeremy Cameron - pre-selection
Josh Bruce - pre-selection
Charlie Dixon - pre-selection
Taylor Walker - NSW selection
Travis Cloke - F/S
Joe Daniher - F/S
Tom Hawkins - F/S
But using a first round pick on a tall forward, doesn't suddenly make that player good.
In 2009 we got Mora at pick 4, we could've had Butcher (pick 8)
In 2010 we got Pitt at 20, we could've had Darling (pick 26)
In 2011 we got Sheridan at 16, we could've had Elton (26) or McInnes (28)
In 2012 we got Simpson at 17, we could've had Paparone (23) or White (25)
In 2013 we got Apeness at 17 as a Key forward.
In 2014 we got Weller at 13, we could've had Goddard (21)
Other than Darling (who had personality question marks), we haven't missed out on too much key forward talent with the picks we had.
There was pretty strong talk at the time that we would have overlooked him for Apeness even if he was there at our pick.
From media phantoms and reports.
One side of this debate is definitely going to have some egg on their face at some stage but in saying that I agree that the club simply can't go best available/midfield heavy for this coming draft and probably a few into the future. While Weller is hopefully shaping to be an excellent player following the current team selection process he'll be lucky to get a game in the next 2 years while Deboer, Suban, Sheridan, Crozier etc etc get games ahead of him in our stacked midfield. Meanwhile our KPD and KPF stocks, especially the quality ones will continue to deteriorate over the same period.
Its all well and good to say focus on trading in a gun KPP but just going off what's happened so far the great hope of a Dixon, Rance etc coming over probably isn't all that likely and not something I'd want to bank our short and long term future on.
Its all well and good to say focus on trading in a gun KPP but just going off what's happened so far the great hope of a Dixon, Rance etc coming over probably isn't all that likely and not something I'd want to bank our short and long term future on.
It's because they don't come with a guarantee that you need to keep replenishing your supply.
You may have drafted a player who you believe will be a 'generational' midfielder or KPP or ruckman, do you then deliberately avoid anyone who plays that position in the following few drafts?
What if your generational player breaks down repeatedly or simply turns out to be a dud?
Recruiting at AFL level must be a combination of drafting and trading.
Our record at the trade table has been mediocre over the past decade or so. A few hits and a lot of busts. We didn't bother participating during last year's trade period.
We are relying heavily on drafting to improve our list. Fair enough. As we move into a period of sustained success, our access to high draft picks will continue to dry up. Hawthorn haven't had a top 10 draft pick since 2006. Last year Geelong traded their way to their first top 10 pick since 2006. Our last top 10 pick was Morabito in 2009.
Trading away your first round pick is a big ask of any club. Hawthorn being the exception. In 2012 they traded away #21 and #43 for Lake and #27. In 2013 they traded away #18 and #19 and Savage for #24 and #59 and McEvoy. Last year they traded away #19 and #40 for O'Rourke and #43.
Hawthorn have no difficulty trading away first round picks in order to fill specific needs which will help them win now. It's a luxury struggling clubs don't have. We are currently in that Hawthorn zone, our first round picks are not really high enough to get access to the top plums in each draft.
If you have a top 5 pick you should always select best available. When your first pick is outside the top 10 the line between best available and most needed becomes blurred. Is the best available player at #16 any better than the best available player at #21? Hawthorn say no. They'll happily slide down the selection order a few notches and use that leverage to trade in a player they believe they need now whilst not severely compromising their selection position.
Drafting the best available sounds fine. What happens if the best available is always the same type of player? Do you keep ploughing on until you have 40 midfielders? Or 29 KPP's? Or 17 ruckmen?
We are at a significant disadvantage to the Hawthorns of this world when it comes to attracting quality players.
Trading them in is extremely difficult. We need to keep trying.
In the meantime using a first round pick to select most needed rather than best available is also a very valid option.
At last year's draft our most needed was a KPF or KPD. We chose a midfielder.
Whether Weller was best available is open to debate. Weller was projected in that #11-#20 range. During 2013 Lever was rated a top 3 pick. Unfortunately he suffered a knee injury and was overlooked by clubs who were, by and large, desperate for midfielders (the best available matched their needs).
Would selecting a player with a knee injury be a risk? Obviously. Was it a risk worth taking? That's where clubs are supposed to use their due diligence. There is plenty of anecdotal evidence that Lever's knee problem was a thing of the past.
http://www.afl.com.au/news/2014-10-30/meet-jake-lever
http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-ne...other-ways-to-be-noticed-20141109-11jc35.html
It's a cruel footnote that long time projected #1 Christian Petracca suffered a season ending knee injury before debuting. There are no guarantees.
Never take a risk with an injured teenager?
Consider this.
Chris Judd had two shoulder reconstructions by the age of 17. In the 2001 draft he slipped to #3 because of concerns about his shoulders.
Hawthorn would still be happy with their choice of Hodge. But what of St Kilda?
Luke Ball was a very good midfielder, but he was no Judd.
What may have happened had St Kilda selected Judd instead of Ball will never truly be known.
St Kilda lost the 2004 PF to eventual premiers Port Adelaide by 6 points. Judd was Brownlow medallist that year.
The Saints were very close to premiers in 2009 as well.
In 2010 St Kilda played a drawn grand final. Judd was Brownlow medallist that year.
Had they taken a chance, the Saints may have won three premierships - probably all under Grant Thomas. Ross Lyon may have gone on to be a sacked Melbourne coach. The West Coast Eagles would still be searching for their first flag since 1994.
There are never any guarantees, sometimes you need to take a chance.
Lachie Weller will surely become a star. Hopefully our early 2020's team will contend for a flag. Meanwhile if Jake Lever 'Leo Barry's' us out of an important final I'll be a tad disappointed.
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Really? I don't remember Apeness being in our picture much at all.
After hearing McCarthy's interview about Freo the other week, he must have been absolutely devoed when GWS sniped us. We need tell his grandmother to tell him she's getting sick or something.
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