Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2014 Phantom Draft

[Knightmare]

Looking at a key forward or a ruck men (a true ruck men or a true key forward not a cominbation) in the rookie draft.

Any likely types as possible late types? Jack Package mentioned a young Charger (?) named Brenton Payne. Any more info you can give us?

Im interested in Mark Kovacevic but some aren't big on him.

Payne doesn't for me have the feel of a true key forward as a really light bodied type but high motor and probably of the key forwards the real elite endurance runner. If you're picking him it's more as a high work rate type either as a multi lead forward or a high leading forward rather than a power marking forward. Someone with clubs liking the endurance runners may go for him.

I'm not high on any of the ruckmen this year but Kovacevic is one of the better options and for me the better from the TAC Cup. Good but not a dominant tap ruckman. Can take a strong grab overhead. Can if required go forward and take a mark. Improving accumulator who in the second half of the season started to get more involved around the ground and improve his followup work. He looks like someone who can really put size onto his frame and become a strong ruckman. If you want an AFL comparison he could turn out to be something like a Shaun Hampson through the ruck.

 

[Knightmare]

Just wondering if you had seen much of northern blues bnf winner Tom Wilson and if you can see any team giving him a chance? Knightmare

Have seen a few but not all that many Northern Blues games. I have seen some of Wilson's more quiet games so that will influence my view somewhat but as a smaller type with relatively average numbers I wouldn't have thought he would get drafted.

As far as I'm aware Wilson was not invited to the state screenings so he probably isn't on the shortlist of clubs unless say Carlton or one club is really keeping quiet.

 

[HawkintheTuarts]

With the phantom draft it's more about putting guys in roughly the positions they'll go and giving people a feel for where they could go. There never quite is a perfect phantom draft, though Emma Quayle did come frighteningly close with her first round a few years back which was impressive.

Emma Quayle is one of the best journos in the business but when she does her phantoms it is only the first round, the day before the draft begins after getting as much inside info as possible.

It's more of a prediction than a phantom draft (imo).

Also "convenient" draftees to clubs would be Marchbank to Adelaide, McKenzie to Carlton. Sure there's a couple more like those two

 

[jpsmith]

KM
The dogs passed on jayden foster in the father son bidding any chance you think we will pick him up in rookie or preseason draft or is he more likely to get taken in the national draft

 

[Bicks]

Looking at a key forward or a ruck men (a true ruck men or a true key forward not a cominbation) in the rookie draft.

Any likely types as possible late types? Jack Package mentioned a young Charger (?) named Brenton Payne. Any more info you can give us?

Im interested in Mark Kovacevic but some aren't big on him.

I'm hoping the Crows take young Sturt FC Ruckman/Forward Tom Read, 200+cm described by SA U18's Coach as having the potential to make into a Paul Salmon type player....sounds outrageous but Phillips himself was a top shelf footballer and has very good record for developing young talent. Read has had to be "nursed" through his development from the U16's onwards as he was suffering from an illness similar to chronic fatigue but has come out the other side of that and is ready to go now, plenty of upside. Worth a serious look I would think!

 

[Knightmare]

Emma Quayle is one of the best journos in the business but when she does her phantoms it is only the first round, the day before the draft begins after getting as much inside info as possible.

It's more of a prediction than a phantom draft (imo).

Also "convenient" draftees to clubs would be Marchbank to Adelaide, McKenzie to Carlton. Sure there's a couple more like those two

Emma is terrific. I must agree. There are not many journos I listen to but I've got time for Emma.

It does help
a. being a part of the media
and
b. doing it the day before

But none the less that one year - was it 2011? 2012? - But that one year she really got a high number of those first rounders right which is about the closest I've ever seen to an accurate first round of a phantom draft.

I'm sure others will have other convenient draftees going to particular clubs over the coming weeks. But you are right on Marchbank and McKenzie.

KM
The dogs passed on jayden foster in the father son bidding any chance you think we will pick him up in rookie or preseason draft or is he more likely to get taken in the national draft

Foster most likely slips through into the rookie draft. He may be a rookie chance but you never quite know for certain until the names are read out on draft day.

Given the Dogs passed and took Boyd while Foster could still be an option I'd be inclined to think the Dogs pass.

I'm hoping the Crows take young Sturt FC Ruckman/Forward Tom Read, 200+cm described by SA U18's Coach as having the potential to make into a Paul Salmon type player....sounds outrageous but Phillips himself was a top shelf footballer and has very good record for developing young talent. Read has had to be "nursed" through his development from the U16's onwards as he was suffering from an illness similar to chronic fatigue but has come out the other side of that and is ready to go now, plenty of upside. Worth a serious look I would think!

Paul Salmon is a stretch. Salmon is among the great ruck/forwards the game has seen.

I would agree that Read is the more interesting of the ruckmen this year. I was unaware of the chronic fatigue so that's interesting. He is a genuine draft chance, no question.

 

[Bicks]

Paul Salmon is a stretch. Salmon is among the great ruck/forwards the game has seen.

I would agree that Read is the more interesting of the ruckmen this year. I was unaware of the chronic fatigue so that's interesting. He is a genuine draft chance, no question.

Here you go KM...

Taken from an Emma Quayle article in the Age.

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/afl-draft-combine-harvester-the-ruckmen-20141001-10op78.html


Tom Read (Sturt)
Born 18.7.1996, 200cm, 92cm
AFL biography: Ruckman/tall forward who is still developing. Averaged 12.6 disposals and 5.4 marks at Under-18 level with Sturt.
Brenton Phillips, SANFL: "Tommy has a lot of health issues as a junior, to the point where it was a bit like chronic fatigue. We didn't take him to the under-16s because of that, but he's come out the other end, albeit not as fit as he'll be with a preseason and a chance to get his body really fit. At 200 centimetres he takes the ball below his knees as well as I've ever seen and he likes to chase and tackle. He has a nice, soft ruck tap on him and he can sustain long efforts. I look at him and see a young Paul Salmon in that he can play full-forward and kick the ball well. And as he gets older, he'll make a very nice ruckman."

 

[HawkintheTuarts]

Emma is terrific. I must agree. There are not many journos I listen to but I've got time for Emma.

It does help
a. being a part of the media
and
b. doing it the day before

But none the less that one year - was it 2011? 2012? - But that one year she really got a high number of those first rounders right which is about the closest I've ever seen to an accurate first round of a phantom draft.

Oh sure, but it's loading the deck as much as possible. She still makes plenty of good calls and assesments on the players themselves.

 

[LemmingMaster]

With the phantom draft it's more about putting guys in roughly the positions they'll go and giving people a feel for where they could go. There never quite is a perfect phantom draft, though Emma Quayle did come frighteningly close with her first round a few years back which was impressive.

There are also phantom drafts that can be based on how you rate players instead of where you think they will go.

I keep hearing Lever will go to Melbourne in the first round, does not mean in my mock draft I would select him with picks 2 or 3.

 

[Demonheart]

Look, i'm not here to argue back and forth.

Just interested in predicting the Draft.

I think the Top 3 picks are a lock, Petracca, Brayshaw and McCartin.

Pick 4 then becomes the strategic pick, presuming both GWS and Coll want LaVerde. Which i suspect they do.

FWIW, i have:

1. StK Petracca
2. Mel Brayshaw
3. Mel McCartin
4. GWS LaVerde
5. Coll ?????
6. GWS Wright
7. GWS ??????

I'm not convinced that McCartin will go at 3

 

[Old Campaigner]

I'm not high on any of the ruckmen this year but Kovacevic is one of the better options and for me the better from the TAC Cup. Good but not a dominant tap ruckman. Can take a strong grab overhead. Can if required go forward and take a mark. Improving accumulator who in the second half of the season started to get more involved around the ground and improve his followup work. He looks like someone who can really put size onto his frame and become a strong ruckman. If you want an AFL comparison he could turn out to be something like a Shaun Hampson through the ruck.

Would he be worth picking up with one of Essendon's two picks or is he really worth a late/rookie selection?

On Goddard, what are his strengths as a defender? What kind of player is he best at stopping?

 

[Untouchables22]

Definite chance that Menadue will be available at 28. From around pick 20 onward I imagine he'll start to be a consideration.

I've been a Menadue fan right throughout the year and love what he brings to the table. I feel his willingness to take the game on and his speed is exactly what the Crows need.

What are your concerns with his game?
I see him as Isaac Smith-esque.

With all his attributes, he still isn't really considered a first rounder. If Goddard/Durdin aren't there, Id love the crows to gamble at 14.

 

[Wooly23]

Is there any truth to the rumours that we are extremely keen on cockatoo at pick 16?
Hoping cockatoo at 16 then menadue at 25, learn from Nicky dal and wellsy and will fill those roles we need perfectly
Also heard a rumour that wellsy wants us to get clem smith???
And which big guys do you think we could target pick 36 onwards? Unless one slips from the first round?
Also Aidan Anderson, Toby McLean and caleb daniel I feel could all be steals from this draft and would be stoked to get any of them late or as rookies

 

[Wizard17]

Knightmare what can you tell me about Alex Harnett as far as strengths and weaknesses.

 

[Carlo]

I watched the video for Ryan Lim, He looks like he could be a smokie.

I reckon he's got something.

 

[MightyDons4]

I watched the video for Ryan Lim, He looks like he could be a smokie.

I reckon he's got something.

With reports we might be getting rid of De'Olio, he could be a great addition via the rookie draft although I'd rather Brad Walsh. https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/sport/a/25245913/speedy-yarran-ready-for-afl/

 

[Yoda_]

Should Cockatoo be gone, really warming to us 'reaching' for Connor Menadue with either 17 or 20. Is exactly the player we could use in 3 years when Cooney finishes up. Something Elliott Kavanagh has never quite transitioned to AFL level.

As for inside midfielders like De Goey and Blakely, with such limited spots available may be overlooked and we will go with something drastically differently to what most will want (Cockatoo/De Goey double) and will end up with a Menadue/Keitel/Lamb double

 

[MightyDons4]

Should Cockatoo be gone, really warming to us 'reaching' for Connor Menadue with either 17 or 20. Is exactly the player we could use in 3 years when Cooney finishes up. Something Elliott Kavanagh has never quite transitioned to AFL level.

As for inside midfielders like De Goey and Blakely, with such limited spots available may be overlooked and we will go with something drastically differently to what most will want (Cockatoo/De Goey double) and will end up with a Menadue/Keitel/Lamb double

An inside and an outside mid are what I want from our first two picks. My preferences would be De Goey, Blakely and Ellis for insides and Cockatoo, Menadue and Garlett for outsides.

 

[Yoda_]

An inside and an outside mid are what I want from our first two picks. My preferences would be De Goey, Blakely and Ellis for insides and Cockatoo, Menadue and Garlett for outsides.

Having thought about our inside mid stocks these past couple of days and we are still well stocked.

Kavanagh, Aylett, NOB are three pure inside midfielders who haven't developed as we would have liked but we do have them. As outside midfielders (in the wings) we don't really have any, Fantasia is possibly the closest thing we have. Gleeson plays half back, ditto Browne, ditto Dalgleish.

We really would love that dynamic midfielder be it an inside/outside one like Cockatoo/Menadue or a completely different type like Lamb/Keitell with picks 17/20.

 

[MightyDons4]

Having thought about our inside mid stocks these past couple of days and we are still well stocked.

Kavanagh, Aylett, NOB are three pure inside midfielders who haven't developed as we would have liked but we do have them. As outside midfielders (in the wings) we don't really have any, Fantasia is possibly the closest thing we have. Gleeson plays half back, ditto Browne, ditto Dalgleish.

We really would love that dynamic midfielder be it an inside/outside one like Cockatoo/Menadue or a completely different type like Lamb/Keitell with picks 17/20.

De Goey can play at half forward and Ellis at half back so they versatility is a big positive. However, our number one priority should be outside run. Since delisting Gregory and Hardingham, my (realistic) dream draft would be Goddard at 17, Cockatoo at 20, Wilkinson at 62 and Deluca Cardillo/Anderson at 71 and Brad Walsh in the rookie draft (once we get rid of De'Olio). I still have faith in Kavanagh, O'Brien was very good in the VFL this year and Aylett showed some decent patches of what he's capable of.

 

[Knightmare]

Here you go KM...

Taken from an Emma Quayle article in the Age.

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/afl-draft-combine-harvester-the-ruckmen-20141001-10op78.html


Tom Read (Sturt)
Born 18.7.1996, 200cm, 92cm
AFL biography: Ruckman/tall forward who is still developing. Averaged 12.6 disposals and 5.4 marks at Under-18 level with Sturt.
Brenton Phillips, SANFL: "Tommy has a lot of health issues as a junior, to the point where it was a bit like chronic fatigue. We didn't take him to the under-16s because of that, but he's come out the other end, albeit not as fit as he'll be with a preseason and a chance to get his body really fit. At 200 centimetres he takes the ball below his knees as well as I've ever seen and he likes to chase and tackle. He has a nice, soft ruck tap on him and he can sustain long efforts. I look at him and see a young Paul Salmon in that he can play full-forward and kick the ball well. And as he gets older, he'll make a very nice ruckman."

Alas. A coach talking up his player. Nothing new there.

But none the less of the ruckmen this year Read is the more interesting as a long term development piece as someone who could become something like those Hawthorn rucks in Grimley/Ceglar/Lowden as capable ruck/fwds and of roughly similar projected quality which for a late/rookie selection is reasonable.

There are also phantom drafts that can be based on how you rate players instead of where you think they will go.

I keep hearing Lever will go to Melbourne in the first round, does not mean in my mock draft I would select him with picks 2 or 3.

Some have and continue to do phantom drafts based on how they rate players. I leave that for my power rankings.

I just find people want to know who is going where and who may land at their club.

In any case everyone will do it differently which happens when people get creative licence.

Would he be worth picking up with one of Essendon's two picks or is he really worth a late/rookie selection?

On Goddard, what are his strengths as a defender? What kind of player is he best at stopping?

Kovacevic as a rookie perhaps. Late draft I don't feel it's necessary.

For my complete Goddard profile see page 1. But as a defender his strength is his ability to limit the influence of his direct opponent. But in saying that he can also intercept and rebound to a reasonable extent and with further play down back it's not out of the question that that becomes more a regular part of his game.

Goddard would probably struggle against smalls and may not be as good at ground level or against your more mobile key forwards - your Franklins but against the stronger key forwards he can take them and same with those leading key forwards. Good luck to those guys wanting to get a mark on him.

I've been a Menadue fan right throughout the year and love what he brings to the table. I feel his willingness to take the game on and his speed is exactly what the Crows need.

What are your concerns with his game?
I see him as Isaac Smith-esque.

With all his attributes, he still isn't really considered a first rounder. If Goddard/Durdin aren't there, Id love the crows to gamble at 14.

Menadue is a terrific talent - acceleration and willingness to use it when the chance is there, that dynamic sidestep and then his footskills.

My concern is firstly his lean production His numbers are overall relatively poor and you'd like to see him get his hands on it more. With Menadue it's really can he put on the size and strength without losing his explosion? Can he develop the contested side to his game to become a dominant inside player? And can he improve his numbers?

I wouldn't personally be willing at 14 to take the gamble on him. But from pick 20 onward if looking for what he can provide I'd be interested. His draft range is fairly open and with his gifts I'm not discounting anything whether it's going at around 14, but equally it's not out of the question he goes in the latter portion of the draft as more a fan favourite than a club favourite at this point as more a highlight reel player than certain impact player.

Isaac Smith is an interesting comparison and I don't think you'll be the only one to make that comparison. Menadue is definitely a much better kick and probably has more scope to develop an inside game. He just doesn't have that elite endurance or outside running game to be as effective in that outside role as Smith. He just isn't a natural link player or someone who finds the ball all that easily, often on the outside to do his damage as much as he optimally would.

 

[Knightmare]

Is there any truth to the rumours that we are extremely keen on cockatoo at pick 16?
Hoping cockatoo at 16 then menadue at 25, learn from Nicky dal and wellsy and will fill those roles we need perfectly
Also heard a rumour that wellsy wants us to get clem smith???
And which big guys do you think we could target pick 36 onwards? Unless one slips from the first round?
Also Aidan Anderson, Toby McLean and caleb daniel I feel could all be steals from this draft and would be stoked to get any of them late or as rookies

Cockatoo trained with North Melbourne through the AIS at the start of the season. He impressed the club so that is where those rumours stem from. It's just speculation based around that. It's not out of the question Cockatoo will go to North at 16, but it's far from certain.

Who knows with Clem Smith who likes and doesn't like him. I see him as a logical choice for North because he has played and played well at WAFL League level, and with North in win now mode, why not take a shot as someone who can play more immediately? He also could fill a need either forward or back. It just depends on the clubs evaluation of Smith.

Reece McKenzie likely doesn't go first round and it probably of the key forwards the pick of the bunch. Maybe Brett Eddy if looking for someone immediate. I imagine for key defence stocks North are fine as is. But an Oscar McDonald from pick 30 onward and probably more likely mid-late draft could be a consideration for a club.

You could be right on Anderson/McLean/Daniel. Late/rookie they could be solid choices.

 

[Zach Package]

Payne doesn't for me have the feel of a true key forward as a really light bodied type but high motor and probably of the key forwards the real elite endurance runner. If you're picking him it's more as a high work rate type either as a multi lead forward or a high leading forward rather than a power marking forward. Someone with clubs liking the endurance runners may go for him.

That's what we're after and that's why I rate him as a fit for us. Ambrose i think has been a raging success but we're basically looking at more guys that can compliment Daniher/Carlisle/Bellchambers, blokes who draw a defender away, go on long leads up to the flanks but still hit the scoreboard if it's their turn.

I get the feeling that he'd be very high on our list if he makes it to the rookie draft

 

[Yoda_]

Is this kid more Jack Gunston or more Taylor Walker? (both 193cm)

 

[Turbocat]

Knightmare , I see you now have Ahern at 10 with Durdin dropping .... any reason for this Durdin lost favour , Geelong like Ahern?