2023 AFL Draft General Discussion

[Red Black and Blue]

Pick 1?

West coast future first is absolutely odds on to be pick 1.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

Because those two have really brained the competition

Have a think about it for a second.

 

[Sir Ronald Mac]

West coast future first is absolutely odds on to be pick 1.

We don't know this.

 

[master bate]

We’d be stupid not to

He’s easily a top 2 player in the draft

Stupid, or sticking to a side deal agreement as part of the 4 team pick trade?

I wouldn't be surprised to see none of the Dogs, North, Melb or Adel bid on Suns players. Or possibly North don't bid at 2 but bid at 3 given they were only involved a little in the pick swap trade.

 

[Red Black and Blue]

We don't know this.

We do know this, because thats what the betting odds are.

 

[Mutineer]

Nah we don't speak no more since he caught me with his Mrs.

Colonel Sanders is my source.

Not Jack?

Hungry Jack?

 

[Sir Ronald Mac]

We do know this, because thats what the betting odds are.

Got me on a technicality

 

[Obeanie1]

We don't know this.

Who else is odds on favourite?

He's not saying g they will.

Just that they are most likely. Which is spot on.

The only other choice is North.

 

[Obeanie1]

Curtin will be a Crows Player on Monday.
Hamish is selling the farm for him.

So giving up on Drapper then?

Strange move.

 

[Sir Ronald Mac]

Who else is odds on favourite?

He's not saying g they will.

Just that they are most likely. Which is spot on.

The only other choice is North.

I think WC will improve, their list ain't that bad.

Maybe port, hawthorn, north? A team with injury crisis? Geelong?

 

[Sir Ronald Mac]

So giving up on Drapper then?

Strange move.

A bird in the hand is worth....

 

[pK75]

I think WC will improve, their list ain't that bad.

Maybe port, hawthorn, north? A team with injury crisis? Geelong?

Geez, I hope freo don’t trade away Ports F1 tonight then, could be pick 1 next year!

 

[DEESNUTSRBIG]

A bird in the hand is worth....

Less than a cooked chicken.

 

[theGav56]

It's more complex.

I use this example quite often when discussing this, but you can absolutely select on a needs based at the top end of the draft depending on certain circumstances.

All teams have a draft board where they rank the talent. I'm sure there are plenty of 'toss of the coin' rankings as well.

Let's use the 2021 draft as our example. At that point in time Hawthorn's most promising young midfielder was either mid season rookie Jai Newcombe or tagger Finn Maginness. We had pick 7 and desperately needed to address our midfield woes. It was a necessity.
Jye Amiss and Josh Gibcus were right in the mix at pick 7, but our tall forward and defender stocks looked solid at the time.
(Lewis and Kosi looked promising as a forward tandem and we'd just recruited Denver Grainger Barrass as a tall defender a year earlier).
There is every chance we rated all 3 players quite similarly, or even had Gibcus rated higher than Ward (which was a rumour for a few days).

In the end, we took Josh Ward which was the safest and smartest selection.

Yes I agree. The bigfooty fan thinking about draft rankings/best available is simplistic.

Two things make it more complex:

• rating/ranking players with such different skills and development timelines as smalls and talls is complicated. Often you are comparing players who are plug and play with other players who have shown little more than potential. Sometimes a plug and play option is critical for a club in premiership mode, other times a longer timeline fits better.
• grouping players in tiers has been shown to be a clear strategy for recruiters rather than a fixed hierarchy. Both things may coexist but at the very least there is often a clear overlap.

 

[Obeanie1]

Geez, I hope freo don’t trade away Ports F1 tonight then, could be pick 1 next year!

You should worry about them trading your own F1st.......not Ports.

Didn't work out so well last year.

 

[Milanista28]

I think WC will improve, their list ain't that bad.

Maybe port, hawthorn, north? A team with injury crisis? Geelong?

Essendon and Richmond outside chances, maybe not last bad but you never know

 

[RUNVS]

Any predictions for when Bigfooty crashes and how long it takes for the site to start working normally again?

 

[pK75]

You should worry about them trading your own F1st.......not Ports.

Didn't work out so well last year.

Jackson was worth it despite our crap year, everyone knew our two first were going to be required, it was the F2 as well that pissed off most fans. That F2 is currently 28 (sitting with Carlton) and will end up being early 30’s by tomorrow.

 

[WilloTree]

You should worry about them trading your own F1st.......not Ports.

Didn't work out so well last year.

Jackson was 4th in the bnf

It was a high price, but we're very pleased with his year and excited for what is to come.

Genuine A grader.

 

[Haggas]

Geez, I hope freo don’t trade away Ports F1 tonight then, could be pick 1 next year!

Turn it up!. Freo's own pick would be closer to pick 1

 

[pK75]

Turn it up!. Freo's own pick would be closer to pick 1

Was in response to a crows poster suggesting port could be last instead of WC next year!
Tongue firmly in cheek!

 

[theGav56]

Jackson was worth it despite our crap year, everyone knew our two first were going to be required, it was the F2 as well that pissed off most fans. That F2 is currently 28 (sitting with Carlton) and will end up being early 30’s by tomorrow.

Trading any future first round pick requires a club to have a good perception of where it stands and where it is likely to finish the next year.

Our poor 2023 showing wasn't the results of unexpected events, injury, and the likes. We were as in control of our own destiny as we have been for any season in our existence.

We didn't simply underperform. We made a miscalculation of where the list and coach were at.

We could have haggled, but a pair of late first rounders and a f2 is hardly unreasonable for Jackson. We stuffed up because of a lack self perception as a club. No excuses in my opinion.

 

[fishardansin]

Late mail coming through is Harley Reid has had an amputation and is slipping to Essendon.

 

[RUNVS]

Someone needs to create a live draft discussion, and include the Lore draft order.

I say this as a few years ago no one did it, and it took until around pick 8 until someone made it

 

[RUNVS]

Late mail coming through is Harley Reid has had an amputation and is slipping to Essendon.

Shouldn't be a problem. Varys was fine.