Unofficial Preview Changes & discussion Round 6 v Cats @ Gabba.

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It's an interesting situation we find ourselves in. I feel like what had made a massive difference to our play style is a sprinkling of more defensive minded players all over the ground.

There are two great examples of this, one was Lohmann coming hard off the half forward flank to pressure the Melbourne midfield clearance that had pushed out to the wing, something you rarely see from our HFF (Rayner is the next best at this IMO). The second was Answerths great decision to leave his man and come up of the half back line to stop the forward first with that brilliant tackle.

Gardiner I think has a similar effect and he also gives us a strategic option none of our other forwards can (or will) really stick too. There was a moment in the 2nd where the commentators were talking about Melbourne should drop one of their wings back as a 7th defender to allow Lever to manufacture himself as the loose man. I feel like this type of strategy is exactly why Gardiner is in that forward line. All he has to do is stick to that loose intercept mark and now he's either manufactured a 2v1 on himself (a not super dangerous forward) or the winger has to become the spare. It's a great tactical option (as well as the obvious switch with Payne of things are going right down back) and we all know Fages love flexibility.

I have talked a lot over the past few seasons about needed to get a better balance of defensively minded forwards and mids into the team, we have so many attacking options that everyone tries so hard to be a playmaker. Bailey right now is a great example of someone trying to hard to make things work. He is constantly looking to break tackles which when it comes off is amazing, but most of the time he's had an easy option that would have still succeeded, but wouldn't have made him look like "the star".

If you look across the lines from our game last weekend, I think we have that balance pretty right:

Forwards:
Attack Focused: Cameron, Hipwood, Danniher
Balanced: McCarthy
Defensive: Gardiner Lohmann

Mids:
Attack Focused: Neale, Rayner
Balanced: McCluggage
Defensive: Dunkley

Wings:
Balanced: Fletcher, Berry
Defensive: Ah Chee

Defenders:
Attack Focused: Zorko,
Balanced: Wilmot, Andrews, Lester
Defensive: Answerth, Starch, Payne

The ones not on the list above are the players I see as being really out of form in McInerny and Bailey.

On this basis I would probably move Bailey into a more specialist forward role this week (replacing Cameron) and bring in another balanced for/mid (no idea of 2s form right now but it seems Tunstill is next off the rank)

For McKenna if he is right, it's hard to see who in that backline he replaces. I would class McKenna as more of a Balanced defender rather then a Defensive type like Answerth and I would be loathed too mess with that balance we had this week. As people have said on here a lot McKenna has the attributes of a great wingmen, so what I would like to see is Ah Chee swing into a HFF role (to replace Bailey who goes to forward pocket) and McKenna come in on a wing.
 

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Would be quite shocking to start 0-3 at the GABBA, Cats have had some cruisy bruise-free gamesa as well. Bring the pressure and I think we can win comfortably.
 
Not sure this is the best place but we are now entering an incredibly important four game stretch.

Cats - H
Giants - A
Suns - H
Crows - A

Would really like to go 3-1 but at a bare minimum we need to go 2-2. Would put at us 4-5 which can definitely be recovered since I reckon we have an easier second half of the season after this.

With hindsight, Freo is a very good outfit this year but both our home games were very winnable and we pulled off an upset against Melbourne. I think 3-2 would’ve been par in those first five games.

After these next four we have a decent stretch.

Tigers - H
Hawks - A
BYE
Dogs - A
Saints - H

Here we’d really be wanting to perform a clean sweep 4-0. This would put us at 8-5.

Power - A
Dees - H

Want to go 1-1 at least. Put at us 9-6.

Eagles - A
Crows - H

Should go 2-0 and put us at 11-6.

Swans - H
Suns - A
Saints - A
Giants - H
Pies - A

Would be really important to go 4-1 but I’m not over being dismantled at Carrara last year so I feel like it’d be 3-2. Would put us at 14-8.

Bombers - H

Should win, 1-0 and finish at 15-8.

On last years ladder we’d be fifth but the year before we’d be able to be top four (accounting for gather round) with good percentage. This stretch of four games and the stretch of five games near the end of three season will define where we end up now.

All starts now most importantly.
 
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Still not quite sure what to make of the cats.

They have definitely been good, and i would say better than i thought.

They are very healthy - only Guthrie will be missing, assuming Dangerfield comes back after an extra week off. He seems to go well fresh as well.

So what of their wins?

Home win v saints - got very close so not all that convincing

Away win v crows. Adelaide have not been great but geelong were pretty good in this game. Suspect they started the rot a bit for the crows

Win against hawks - meh

Win in neutral venue v Dogs - not a bad win but looks a bit more ordinary with the dogs' loss on Friday.

Home win v North - double meh

No exposed form against a top 6 from last year or in all likelihood this year.

They will be good - they are not the sort of side to just give nothing interstate. Their 'minimum' performance away, if you like, is a good one.

But i think they are not quite the side they were - Hawkins for example has had some good games but some very quiet ones. If we play well, not exceptionally but well, with the crowd on side, i am confident we win this.

If we lose this it will feel like dead cat bounce v Melbourne.

We are 2 in a row and a convincing win here will really put some confidence through the group. Giants could be without Coniglio and Taylor too (no idea on either but both looked serious) so there's a chance in Canberra.

Just got to prove Thursday was not the standard so much as closer to our level then rounds 0-2.
 
twhowler said:
Still not quite sure what to make of the cats.

They have definitely been good, and i would say better than i thought.

They are very healthy - only Guthrie will be missing, assuming Dangerfield comes back after an extra week off. He seems to go well fresh as well.

So what of their wins?

Home win v saints - got very close so not all that convincing

Away win v crows. Adelaide have not been great but geelong were pretty good in this game. Suspect they started the rot a bit for the crows

Win against hawks - meh

Win in neutral venue v Dogs - not a bad win but looks a bit more ordinary with the dogs' loss on Friday.

Home win v North - double meh

No exposed form against a top 6 from last year or in all likelihood this year.

They will be good - they are not the sort of side to just give nothing interstate. Their 'minimum' performance away, if you like, is a good one.

But i think they are not quite the side they were - Hawkins for example has had some good games but some very quiet ones. If we play well, not exceptionally but well, with the crowd on side, i am confident we win this.

If we lose this it will feel like dead cat bounce v Melbourne.

We are 2 in a row and a convincing win here will really put some confidence through the group. Giants could be without Coniglio and Taylor too (no idea on either but both looked serious) so there's a chance in Canberra.

Just got to prove Thursday was not the standard so much as closer to our level then rounds 0-2.
Click to expand...
Saw on the giants board, Coniglio likely 4 weeks. Taylor cleared of major damage. On the latter genuinely hope he is fine as it was an awful collision so i refuse to hope he won't be right for us. But clearly it would be a bonus ha
 

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twhowler said:
Saw on the giants board, Coniglio likely 4 weeks. Taylor cleared of major damage. On the latter genuinely hope he is fine as it was an awful collision so i refuse to hope he won't be right for us. But clearly it would be a bonus ha
Click to expand...
On Taylor, is it 12 day protocols b/c our game would be the 13th day since yesterday’s brutal knockout?
 
McIvor said:
On Taylor, is it 12 day protocols b/c our game would be the 13th day since yesterday’s brutal knockout?
Click to expand...
From my reading of the rule, on the 12th day after you can play. So that would be game day. I’d be a bit surprised if they went with that after such a brutal hit tbh but who knows.

Incidentally the giants have a lot of travel albeit short travel, since their bye: adelaide / canberra / melbourne / canberra (our game).
 
buttermuffs said:
Not sure this is the best place but we are now entering an incredibly important four game stretch.

Cats - H
Giants - A
Suns - H
Crows - A

Would really like to go 3-1 but at a bare minimum we need to go 2-2. Would put at us 4-5 which can definitely be recovered since I reckon we have an easier second half of the season after this.

With hindsight, Freo is a very good outfit this year but both our home games were very winnable and we pulled off an upset against Melbourne. I think 3-2 would’ve been par in those first five games.

After these next four we have a decent stretch.

Tigers - H
Hawks - A
BYE
Dogs - A
Saints - H

Here we’d really be wanting to perform a clean sweep 4-0. This would put us at 8-5.

Power - A
Dees - H

Want to go 1-1 at least. Put at us 9-6.

Eagles - A
Crows - H

Should go 2-0 and put us at 11-6.

Swans - H
Suns - A
Saints - A
Giants - H
Pies - A

Would be really important to go 4-1 but I’m not over being dismantled at Carrara last year so I feel like it’d be 3-2. Would put us at 14-8.

Bombers - H

Should win, 1-0 and finish at 15-8.

On last years ladder we’d be fifth but the year before we’d be able to be top four (accounting for gather round) with good percentage. This stretch of four games and the stretch of five games near the end of three season will define where we end up now.

All starts now most importantly.
Click to expand...

Nah, not thinking too far out - I made that mistake before the reason started.

Worry about Geelong first, worry about Rayner having another good game in the middle next, worry about Fagan's plans working well again this week and then see how the result pans out before facing GWS.

One thing I liked the most last week, there was no exuberant celebrations after goals were kicked. Everyone had a steely look and gave each other a high five, while rolling back to their spots getting ready for the next ball up. I really liked this version of us, all business and be ready for whatever gets thrown at us.
 
buttermuffs said:
Not sure this is the best place but we are now entering an incredibly important four game stretch.

Cats - H
Giants - A
Suns - H
Crows - A

Would really like to go 3-1 but at a bare minimum we need to go 2-2. Would put at us 4-5 which can definitely be recovered since I reckon we have an easier second half of the season after this.

With hindsight, Freo is a very good outfit this year but both our home games were very winnable and we pulled off an upset against Melbourne. I think 3-2 would’ve been par in those first five games.

After these next four we have a decent stretch.

Tigers - H
Hawks - A
BYE
Dogs - A
Saints - H

Here we’d really be wanting to perform a clean sweep 4-0. This would put us at 8-5.

Power - A
Dees - H

Want to go 1-1 at least. Put at us 9-6.

Eagles - A
Crows - H

Should go 2-0 and put us at 11-6.

Swans - H
Suns - A
Saints - A
Giants - H
Pies - A

Would be really important to go 4-1 but I’m not over being dismantled at Carrara last year so I feel like it’d be 3-2. Would put us at 14-8.

Bombers - H

Should win, 1-0 and finish at 15-8.

On last years ladder we’d be fifth but the year before we’d be able to be top four (accounting for gather round) with good percentage. This stretch of four games and the stretch of five games near the end of three season will define where we end up now.

All starts now most importantly.
Click to expand...
The Squiggle models currently have us losing another 4 games for the year in absolute terms, altho obviously there's a bunch of 50-50s in there which we'll probably have to win all of to make the top 4.

Ironically, Thursday's win at the MCG over Melbourne arguably lowers our bar from having to make top 2 to be any chance, to be able to win it from 3rd or 4th.

Screenshot_20240414_211752_Sheets.jpg
 
Grasshopper17 said:
The Squiggle models currently have us losing another 4 games for the year in absolute terms, altho obviously there's a bunch of 50-50s in there which we'll probably have to win all of to make the top 4.

Ironically, Thursday's win at the MCG over Melbourne arguably lowers our bar from having to make top 2 to be any chance, to be able to win it from 3rd or 4th.

View attachment 1959875
Click to expand...
Don't really understand how the Dogs would be favourites against us
 
twhowler said:
Still not quite sure what to make of the cats.

They have definitely been good, and i would say better than i thought.

They are very healthy - only Guthrie will be missing, assuming Dangerfield comes back after an extra week off. He seems to go well fresh as well.

So what of their wins?

Home win v saints - got very close so not all that convincing

Away win v crows. Adelaide have not been great but geelong were pretty good in this game. Suspect they started the rot a bit for the crows

Win against hawks - meh

Win in neutral venue v Dogs - not a bad win but looks a bit more ordinary with the dogs' loss on Friday.

Home win v North - double meh

No exposed form against a top 6 from last year or in all likelihood this year.

They will be good - they are not the sort of side to just give nothing interstate. Their 'minimum' performance away, if you like, is a good one.

But i think they are not quite the side they were - Hawkins for example has had some good games but some very quiet ones. If we play well, not exceptionally but well, with the crowd on side, i am confident we win this.

If we lose this it will feel like dead cat bounce v Melbourne.

We are 2 in a row and a convincing win here will really put some confidence through the group. Giants could be without Coniglio and Taylor too (no idea on either but both looked serious) so there's a chance in Canberra.

Just got to prove Thursday was not the standard so much as closer to our level then rounds 0-2.
Click to expand...
Yep it really is all about which Brisbane turns up for mine. Whether it's the disinterested bunch we saw against Freo or the committed and desperate group we saw against Melbourne.

To your comments about Geelong's fixture so far, my "power rankings" which adjust results based on quality of opponent, has Geelong 7th with a % of just 110.
 
mpal6 said:
Nah, not thinking too far out - I made that mistake before the reason started.

Worry about Geelong first, worry about Rayner having another good game in the middle next, worry about Fagan's plans working well again this week and then see how the result pans out before facing GWS.

One thing I liked the most last week, there was no exuberant celebrations after goals were kicked. Everyone had a steely look and gave each other a high five, while rolling back to their spots getting ready for the next ball up. I really liked this version of us, all business and be ready for whatever gets thrown at us.
Click to expand...
Hard to be that version with the goal songs!

Feels weird hearing them when we are well behind in the game and the crowd is a bit meh.

But i won’t bother trying to be a wowser - my young nephews love them and clearly they’re here to stay for a while
 
mpal6 said:
Nah, not thinking too far out - I made that mistake before the reason started.

Worry about Geelong first, worry about Rayner having another good game in the middle next, worry about Fagan's plans working well again this week and then see how the result pans out before facing GWS.

One thing I liked the most last week, there was no exuberant celebrations after goals were kicked. Everyone had a steely look and gave each other a high five, while rolling back to their spots getting ready for the next ball up. I really liked this version of us, all business and be ready for whatever gets thrown at us.
Click to expand...

Fair enough. I’d certainly hope the club itself is taking it one week at a time but I just liked to group the games into bunches to highlight that we can still lose some and recover.
 
I don’t envisage any changes this week if Cameron gets off, although I wouldn’t be surprised if we look at a different sub.

I do wonder if we’d look to Fort as a sub as cover for Oscar with the Cats talks such as Stanley, Blicvacs, De Koning. If we don’t go tall, I’d go DevRob over Jimmy.
 
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