Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2014 Phantom Draft

[Knightmare]

Hi KM im in a fantasy keeper league, just wondering which players you think will be fantasy relevant. Specifically players who are likely to play half back?

Petracca, Brayshaw, Heeney if he can get a game. Blakely if he can get games/depends on team. Jack Steele if he gets games for GWS can rack it up. Toby McLean as a forward if he can get games. Billy Stretch. Damien Cavka. Dean Gore, Alex Neal-Bullen, Peter Bampton. Those are the names you should know as a fantasy football person as guys who can play from season one and rack it up.

As a defender Nic Newman from the VFL as a mature ager would be a strong get.

Hey Knight, there is talk on our board that Sean Dempster has said that this will be his last year, so who (one or more) do you see as being the most like him in this draft (that we might be able to get our hands on with picks 21/22 or 41, or in the RD). ie. able to potentially play tall, but especially medium and small, to be able to completely blanket the smaller or medium types defensively, but also be really good with the intercept marking (as Sean has become this past 2-3 years) and able to provide some drive, with penetrating disposal?

I imagine a few clubs would want to snap Dempster up. He's still a very useful defender. And even if he doesn't want to remain a part of St Kilda's rebuilding plan could help a contending team.

Liam Dawson but he is going to Brisbane through the Academy. Daniel McKenzie, Daniel Howe, Josh McGuinness. Maybe Vickers-Willis. They'd be the names I'd be thinking of to play that type of role as a Dempster replacement.

Langford and Durdin got a late invite today to the offical draft..
Going top 10 ??
Langford to the Pies?

Possible, but they equally could just be backup plans for some teams.

Langford to the Pies may happen. Don't have any inside info on it though so your guess is as good as mine.

 

[Balony_pony16]

Petracca, Brayshaw, Heeney if he can get a game. Blakely if he can get games/depends on team. Jack Steele if he gets games for GWS can rack it up. Toby McLean as a forward if he can get games. Billy Stretch. Damien Cavka. Dean Gore, Alex Neal-Bullen, Peter Bampton. Those are the names you should know as a fantasy football person as guys who can play from season one and rack it up.

What order would you go with the top 3 out of Petracca, brayshaw, and Heeney (lets assume he plays heaps next season)?

 

[Bailey01]

Jake Lever to the crows.....how likely is that to eventuate? KM

 

[Knightmare]

What order would you go with the top 3 out of Petracca, brayshaw, and Heeney (lets assume he plays heaps next season)?

Petracca, Brayshaw then Heeney in that order for next year. Both in projected games played and total points for the season.

Paul Roos makes it hard for young guys to play early so Brayshaw probably doesn't play the full season given Salem hardly played this year, as good as Brayshaw is with Roos someone who will ease guys in and make them earn their position.

Heeney similarly probably at Sydney just with the sheer depth of that midfield will also likely struggle to get frequent games also.

With Petracca the concern will be that he plays too many of his minutes forward, and you consider that in any calculation. But hopefully he gets a mix of mid/fwd minutes and has the disposals to go with the marks per game and scoreboard impact.

--
As a side note.

For any of those fantasy games I'd be looking much more broadly than just the big three and look at that complete list of names from my previous post with all of them exceptionally productive.
An example of something I'm sure many fantasy football followers wouldn't know is Jack Steele's best performances this year. He had a 25 kick, 13 handball, 15 mark, 9 tackle and 3 goal game in the TAC Cup. He also had a couple of other strong games with 17 kicks, 10 handballs, 10 marks, 10 tackles and 2 goals. With another game where he achieved 19 kicks, 9 handballs, 7 marks, 7 tackles and 4 behinds.
Billy Stretch is another example where he had countless games of 20+ disposals in the SANFL at League level. He's another who is going to find the footy.
Same story with Neal-Bullen/Gore/Bampton/Blakely.
Cavka can do a 16.7 beep so that guy will probably be another who finds it at the next level. Particularly when in his final two games (finals games) he achieved 25 kicks, 5 handballs, 13 marks, 6 tackles and 5 goals. With the next game 19 kicks, 7 handballs, 9 marks, 2 tackles and 3 goals.

So really all those guys for your dreamteam/supercoach games should be guys if anything to prioritise over the more popular, more expensive rookies.
Or if it's some fantasy draft game then the names from the previous post are others to keep in mind with some of your picks.

 

[Knightmare]

Jake Lever to the crows.....how likely is that to eventuate? KM

Certainly possible Lever makes it through to Adelaide. He probably only has to get through Geelong and Fremantle and both clubs seem to be favouring others in Wright and Durdin respectively based on media speculation. 60/40 Lever is there. Whether he is the eventual pick is a different question and depends on Adelaide's preference towards Wright/Durdin if one or both are also there or perhaps a Langford who seems also to be someone Adelaide are considering at 14.

 

[Rockford]

Paul Roos makes it hard for young guys to play early so Brayshaw probably doesn't play the full season given Salem hardly played this year, as good as Brayshaw is with Roos someone who will ease guys in and make them earn their position.

Where do you see Salem longer term though? Has he lived up to his reputation pre-draft with what he's shown in the games he got last season?

As a side note.

For any of those fantasy games I'd be looking much more broadly than just the big three and look at that complete list of names from my previous post with all of them exceptionally productive.

Shhhhhh... Some of us have looked more broadly. Really worried that a guy I'm planning to "dip" for in my draft will end up on the radar of someone with a better pick. And I know all of you (the guys in our UF league) read this thread too!

 

[Knightmare]

Where do you see Salem longer term though? Has he lived up to his reputation pre-draft with what he's shown in the games he got last season?

Hardly played actually from my previous post in looking back at Salem's games played was incorrect playing 12 games at AFL level and just the 6 at VFL level. But my preference is generally towards watching those "winning teams" and expansion teams specifically at AFL level, only occasionally watching those other teams so I can miss bits and pieces from those other teams as watching junior and state league footy regularly I can't watch all games every week.

Salem's numbers are mild overall, I assume a number of his games at AFL level were sub affected. He is a role player and I never anticipated he would be a big time accumulator. I'd say he is tracking roughly as I had expected. Getting games and playing most games without playing all or starring immediately.

If you want a response on Salem regarding fantasy footy as I assume you would as a Geelong supporter enquiring about a Melbourne player, I see Salem more as a two way guy who will play a relatively accountable brand of footy and I don't expect him ever to be an elite accumulator or ball winner as someone who will more be a component to a team rather than the reason why you win.

 

[Rockford]

If you want a response on Salem regarding fantasy footy as I assume you would as a Geelong supporter enquiring about a Melbourne player, I see Salem more as a two way guy who will play a relatively accountable brand of footy and I don't expect him ever to be an elite accumulator or ball winner as someone who will more be a component to a team rather than the reason why you win.

Since playing the keeper league draft style games I've ended up taking a real interest in the way kids develop for various teams in general. The interest stemmed from fantasy footy but it's rooted now more in trying to identify what a kid might become at the next level. The work that you and others do on this board is exceptional and means average punters like me can better develop an opinion on how these kids might go which in turn translates a lot to taking enjoyment from watching them play at the next level. Without wanting to disparage any teams I've been able to enjoy watching games like the Demons v Crows last year (watching JKH go about it) whereas I normally wouldn't even bother with it. Has meant I've really enjoyed watching GWS and GCS games too. Wouldn't have happened if you guys weren't producing this content IMO.

 

[combaning]

Just looking at some of the highlights packages.

Keitel looks much more natural and better as a KPD (and one of the better KPDs in the draft) in my opinion. If anyone gets him after 50, I think they'd be happy?

What are your knocks on Jayden Foster? He looks to be one of the better KPF in the highlights packages. Are his lowlights awful? No defensive pressure?

I like Tagliabue and Baulderstone as the mature rookie ruckmen after seeing their highlights. Baulderstone has a cannon of a kick on him. Tags looks like he could become a Goldstein-style ruckman (best case scenario).

 

[Iluvdalhouse]

Cant believe how hard this years draft is on recruiters.
McKenzie forward and half back both! Could turn out to be better than Wright and Brayshaw

 

[Pottzy]

KM - Great phantom draft mate. Really enjoyed the read.
Jay Clark reporting Dogs dream result would be Langford slipping to 26. I don't see any possibility of it happening but what are your thoughts?

 

[Glenny83]

Hi KM,
The recent word is McCartin is firming for #1. If this eventuates, do you believe MFC will be inclined to take Petracca and Wright? Wright would then become much more appealing IMO as a different style KPF to Hogan...this would in turn shift the brayshaw and pickett up the list with GWS likley to select Laverde and a KPD at picks 6 and 7?

 

[captain cotch 9]

Hi KM,
The recent word is McCartin is firming for #1. If this eventuates, do you believe MFC will be inclined to take Petracca and Wright? Wright would then become much more appealing IMO as a different style KPF to Hogan...this would in turn shift the brayshaw and pickett up the list with GWS likley to select Laverde and a KPD at picks 6 and 7?

That would shake things up.

 

[Tommy D]

Hi KM,
The recent word is McCartin is firming for #1. If this eventuates, do you believe MFC will be inclined to take Petracca and Wright? Wright would then become much more appealing IMO as a different style KPF to Hogan...this would in turn shift the brayshaw and pickett up the list with GWS likley to select Laverde and a KPD at picks 6 and 7?

If we are going to skip on anyone, it will be Petracca, as Roos apparently loves Brayshaw, thought the same could be said of Neeld for Wines (you never know, we could make the same stuff up twice)

 

[DarlinCatchemnt]

Hi KM,
The recent word is McCartin is firming for #1. If this eventuates, do you believe MFC will be inclined to take Petracca and Wright? Wright would then become much more appealing IMO as a different style KPF to Hogan...this would in turn shift the brayshaw and pickett up the list with GWS likley to select Laverde and a KPD at picks 6 and 7?

I've had McCartin as going to the Saints for three weeks - after they said something along the lines of "trust our decision, we believe we'll pick the best available". With next year's mid-heavy draft pool and their picks in the early twenties this year (which should heed better quality mids than talls) McCartin does make a lot of sense - assuming they believe the two players are relatively even.

However I think the way the draft order falls after this won't change much at all if this happens. Melbourne would be delighted with Petracca and Brayshaw, and wouldn't think twice about drafting two mids if they were of this quality.

 

[captain cotch 9]

Mcartin would be laughing to get to the Saints.
He will have 2-3 years under the best CHF of the last 15 years.
If he goes to Melbourne he has the pressure of forming a dynamic duo with an unproven and injury prone Hogan.

 

[Yabadoo22]

Hey knightmare. A few questions here.
1- who are you thinking for at pick 1 at this late stage?
2- what's the latest goss on Corey Ellis?
3- if durdin, wright and lever are gone by Adelaide's pick 14 will they bite the bullet and select Brayden Maynard?

 

[Crazy Tails]

Mcartin would be laughing to get to the Saints.
He will have 2-3 years under the best CHF of the last 15 years.
If he goes to Melbourne he has the pressure of forming a dynamic duo with an unproven and injury prone Hogan.

Reckon you are spot on with this. Saints should just have McCartin shadow Roo for the next 2-3. What an apprenticeship. Almost like a Riewoldt succession plan. The Hayes succession can come from taking two quality mids at 21/22. ie: Ellis/Neale-Bullen/Blakely/Miller etc.

 

[Knightmare]

Just looking at some of the highlights packages.

Keitel looks much more natural and better as a KPD (and one of the better KPDs in the draft) in my opinion. If anyone gets him after 50, I think they'd be happy?

What are your knocks on Jayden Foster? He looks to be one of the better KPF in the highlights packages. Are his lowlights awful? No defensive pressure?

I like Tagliabue and Baulderstone as the mature rookie ruckmen after seeing their highlights. Baulderstone has a cannon of a kick on him. Tags looks like he could become a Goldstein-style ruckman (best case scenario).

Keitel is good but not great at both ends I find. As a forward he had a couple of big, big games forward late season which intrigued. Then down back he has performed mostly pretty well. I just would have liked for him to play at League or Reserves level. Probably mid-late draft is his range and most likely he is developed as a key defender given he isn't as dominant generally as many of the other forwards.

Foster is an overager. Improved which was something. Just being a key forward it's less a case of he doesn't have but more a case for me anyway of he doesn't have that one point of different. And without that something that makes him dominant by position it's hard to see him dominating at the next level. Add to that a relative lack of versatility (or at least no multi-positional versatility that I know of) as a pure full forward and that's largely why I can see him being overlooked. But in saying all that. He's productive and his scoreboard impact is excellent. As a rookie or even late draft he could be a chance. But he has the feel more of a very good state league key forward rather than a key forward you'd build around.

Tagliabue is probably a slightly better chance than Baulderstone to get selected being taller and being more athletic. But very different. Tagliabue is limited around the ground. Baulderstone isn't a dominant tap ruckman. Both if picked would be picked with the intent to be depth rather than best 22.

Cant believe how hard this years draft is on recruiters.
McKenzie forward and half back both! Could turn out to be better than Wright and Brayshaw

Both McKenzie's are good. How good with both remains to be seen. Wright is safe and Brayshaw is particularly is very safe as a selection. There are always guys coming out of the later rounds or the draft and the rookie draft who turn out better than many of the high picks so you can't discount that kind of thing in any year.

KM - Great phantom draft mate. Really enjoyed the read.
Jay Clark reporting Dogs dream result would be Langford slipping to 26. I don't see any possibility of it happening but what are your thoughts?

I'm not sure where Jay is getting that one from. Adelaide and Gold Coast are both very high on Langford and I imagine one or the other pick him if he is there. Collingwood for all we know may still take Langford at 5. A few teams in the 20s I imagine would surely capitalise before the Dogs enter the draft at 26.

In saying that stranger things have happened so it's a wait and see thing. But until I see it I'll be sceptical.

Hi KM,
The recent word is McCartin is firming for #1. If this eventuates, do you believe MFC will be inclined to take Petracca and Wright? Wright would then become much more appealing IMO as a different style KPF to Hogan...this would in turn shift the brayshaw and pickett up the list with GWS likley to select Laverde and a KPD at picks 6 and 7?

Melbourne will take Petracca and Brayshaw if there I imagine. Hard to see them passing on the two best mids in the draft if there. I don't see them being so desperate to add more bigs unless it's a key defender later in the draft.

Hey knightmare. A few questions here.
1- who are you thinking for at pick 1 at this late stage?
2- what's the latest goss on Corey Ellis?
3- if durdin, wright and lever are gone by Adelaide's pick 14 will they bite the bullet and select Brayden Maynard?

1. St Kilda have made their decision. Just what that decision is I do not know. I assume Petracca until I hear a definite McCartin.
2. Corey Ellis probably goes to Richmond at 12 if I had to guess. If not then maybe a Gold Coast or North Melbourne. Hard to see him being on the board at St Kilda's second pick.
3. I see Adelaide perhaps more likely going for Langford. Maybe Weller, Cockatoo or Garlett as alternatives ahead of Maynard. Just feels a bit early, but you never can quite know for certain until draft day.

 

[Masicar666]

Hey knightmare.. Love your work and the time you spend helping us delinquents lol

Quick question do you know if anyone from the recruit is on a clubs radar or have nominated for the drafts ?

 

[Glenny83]

I've had McCartin as going to the Saints for three weeks - after they said something along the lines of "trust our decision, we believe we'll pick the best available". With next year's mid-heavy draft pool and their picks in the early twenties this year (which should heed better quality mids than talls) McCartin does make a lot of sense - assuming they believe the two players are relatively even.

However I think the way the draft order falls after this won't change much at all if this happens. Melbourne would be delighted with Petracca and Brayshaw, and wouldn't think twice about drafting two mids if they were of this quality.

I agree that they probably will take the 2 mids, however, I would deffinately be in their consideration to take Wright as a power forward.

 

[JohnnyDrama1]

Hey KM, just wondering I've heard a lot saying Essendon will be looking at getting 1 tall (Wright, Lamb, Langford, Marchbank, R Mckenzie being thrown around), and 1 medium/small (Ellis, Ahern, Garlett, Weller). Who can you see as being the likely scenario as to who Essendon draft with picks 17 and 20? Obviously Wright/Weller would be ideal but unlikely either of those will slip to pick 17. Lamb and Garlett/Ahern looking likely. Your thoughts?

 

[roo9699]

Hey Knighta,

Now that the indicative locked in order was announced a few hours ago at 87 selections with Rookie promotions taken out will you be updating you're Phantom Draft to 87 selections? will be interesting to see who is in your final cut with the final draft orders

 

[Trav 20]

Mcartin would be laughing to get to the Saints.
He will have 2-3 years under the best CHF of the last 15 years.
If he goes to Melbourne he has the pressure of forming a dynamic duo with an unproven and injury prone Hogan.

Hogan has only ever had one serious injury in his entire junior career, which was his back this year, yet you call him "injury prone" ?

Ignorance at its finest on display.

 

[year of the cat]

Interested in your opinion of David Mennen? Was a name raised on our board. His highlights look pretty impressive and he is under-aged. I assume the knock on him is consistency? Has nice skills and moves very well anyway.