fronkalicious
Brownlow Medallist
Km. Was Bailey Dale on your radar last year?? He's been outstanding for us so far and shredded the pies in the VFL again today. So composed with the footy. Dalrymple seems to have snagged another on there.
Follow along with the video below to see how to install our site as a web app on your home screen.
Note: This feature may not be available in some browsers.
Km. Was Bailey Dale on your radar last year?? He's been outstanding for us so far and shredded the pies in the VFL again today. So composed with the footy. Dalrymple seems to have snagged another on there.
km at this stage you think jake lever should of gone higher, i think crows got really lucky on this pick
I do feel Lever should have gone higher than his draft position.
He certainly a year in projects to be better than the 14th best player from last years draft.
I rated Lever the 10th best in last years draft and I'd be inclined one year in to move him somewhere around 5th best with an openness to move him further up beyond that even with continued strong play over coming seasons.
If i recall you did not rate corey ellis much, and only saw him as a role player and not much more. Based of what he showed in hes few games last year, has your opinion changed?I do feel Lever should have gone higher than his draft position.
He certainly a year in projects to be better than the 14th best player from last years draft.
I rated Lever the 10th best in last years draft and I'd be inclined one year in to move him somewhere around 5th best with an openness to move him further up beyond that even with continued strong play over coming seasons.
Hey KM what would be your ratings be for last years draft crop on performance alone, would Harris Andrews be in top 5?
If i recall you did not rate corey ellis much, and only saw him as a role player and not much more. Based of what he showed in hes few games last year, has your opinion changed?
Andrews would be around that 5 mark. And just that is an endorsement given his draft position.
If I'm to re-do my top 10 power rankings in 5 minutes I'd likely go with:
1. Jordan De Goey
2. Isaac Heeney
3. Darcy Moore
4. Patrick McCartin
5. Harris Andrews
6. Jake Lever
7. Christian Petracca
8. Angus Brayshaw
9. Nakia Cockatoo
10. Jack Steele
*with Touk Miller, Brayden Maynard, Hugh Goddard etc to follow
I'm sure I'll get several "Collingwood bias" comments. But my word, I was so wrong about De Goey and Maynard last year particularly. De Goey has special contested ball winning ability and Maynard I have threatening to push into the top 10 from last years group in his own right as an assumed round one starter. Moore has improved in leaps and bounds and even Mason Cox looks good. That group was incredibly well identified and I encourage people to call me on these rankings a few years from now - credit me if I'm even vaguly in the ball-park with these Collingwood guys, and call me out for it if I'm well wrong and none of them belong anywhere near the top 5.
I know a lot can change still and that smalls tend to be more ready made when they reach AFL level but has Gregson's game done enough to change your projection for him longer term?
You'd rightfully be thrilled with what De Goey showed last season, but I don't think on performance nor potential it's right have him ahead of Heeney.
miller has got to be in your top 5 the guy stood up for a full season of afl an was great!! will be a better player then de goey mark my words
Hey Knighta, love your work.
I remember reading a top 50ish you did of all the recent drafts somewhere in this board, but i'm struggling to find it.
Any chance you know where it is? Or (hopefully), would you be willing to give us an updated top 50 from the past 4-5 drafts.
It's always interesting seeing your thoughts comparing these young guns.
Cheers
I'm sure I completed a top 50 from 2010-2014 somewhere at some point.
I could probably put together a quick update.
I believe someone started a thread on my behalf, I did a 10-20min job putting together some named and that gained legs and started a discussion from there.
For another quick attempt again (2010-2014):
1. Jesse Hogan
2. Jeremy Cameron
3. Tom Lynch (GC)
4. Joe Daniher
5. Marcus Bontempelli
6. Oliver Wines
7. Patrick Cripps
8. Dyson Heppell
9. Jordan De Goey
10. Isaac Heeney
11. Brodie Grundy
12. Tom McDonald
13. Jake Stringer
14. Chad Wingard
15. Jack Darling
16. Tom Liberatore
17. Luke Parker
18. Cameron McCarthy
19. Darcy Moore
20. Paddy McCartin
21. Christian Petracca
22. Angus Brayshaw
23. Jack Billings
24. Jaeger O'Meara
25. Dylan Shiel
26. Adam Treloar
27. Dion Prestia
28. Jack Martin
29. Brad Crouch
30. Stephen Coniglio
31. Jake Lever
32. Harris Andrews
33. Jamie Elliott
34. Tom Mitchell
35. Brodie Smith
36. Bradley Hill
37. Andrew Gaff
38. Tom Boyd
39. Harley Bennell
40. Marley Williams
41. Taylor Adams
42. Lachie Neale
43. Jackson Macrae
44. Jeremy McGovern
45. Luke Dahlhaus
46. Elliott Yeo
47. Isaac Smith
48. Mark Blicavs
49. Jonathon Patton
50. Tom Nicholls
It's hardly perfect and a 20min attempt on my part, but it's a rough attempt. I could spend a whole day on it and move various players 20 spots up/down. But this roughly would be the 50 I'd go with in a rough order.
Andrews would be around that 5 mark. And just that is an endorsement given his draft position.
If I'm to re-do my top 10 power rankings in 5 minutes I'd likely go with:
1. Jordan De Goey
2. Isaac Heeney
3. Darcy Moore
4. Patrick McCartin
5. Harris Andrews
6. Jake Lever
7. Christian Petracca
8. Angus Brayshaw
9. Nakia Cockatoo
10. Jack Steele
*with Touk Miller, Brayden Maynard, Hugh Goddard etc to follow
I'm sure I'll get several "Collingwood bias" comments. But my word, I was so wrong about De Goey and Maynard last year particularly. De Goey has special contested ball winning ability and Maynard I have threatening to push into the top 10 from last years group in his own right as an assumed round one starter. Moore has improved in leaps and bounds and even Mason Cox looks good. That group was incredibly well identified and I encourage people to call me on these rankings a few years from now - credit me if I'm even vaguly in the ball-park with these Collingwood guys, and call me out for it if I'm well wrong and none of them belong anywhere near the top 5.
I have others moving either side of Ellis. But Ellis I rate much as I did last year and would deem to be worth a pick more in the 20-30 range more so than 10-15 range.
Give him a year and he can change that, as with anyone.
Normally I agree with much of what you say but I must say 1 word:I'm sure I completed a top 50 from 2010-2014 somewhere at some point.
I could probably put together a quick update.
I believe someone started a thread on my behalf, I did a 10-20min job putting together some named and that gained legs and started a discussion from there.
For another quick attempt again (2010-2014):
1. Jesse Hogan
2. Jeremy Cameron
3. Tom Lynch (GC)
4. Joe Daniher
5. Marcus Bontempelli
6. Oliver Wines
7. Patrick Cripps
8. Dyson Heppell
9. Jordan De Goey
10. Isaac Heeney
11. Brodie Grundy
12. Tom McDonald
13. Jake Stringer
14. Chad Wingard
15. Jack Darling
16. Tom Liberatore
17. Luke Parker
18. Cameron McCarthy
19. Darcy Moore
20. Paddy McCartin
21. Christian Petracca
22. Angus Brayshaw
23. Jack Billings
24. Jaeger O'Meara
25. Dylan Shiel
26. Adam Treloar
27. Dion Prestia
28. Jack Martin
29. Brad Crouch
30. Stephen Coniglio
31. Jake Lever
32. Harris Andrews
33. Jamie Elliott
34. Tom Mitchell
35. Brodie Smith
36. Bradley Hill
37. Andrew Gaff
38. Tom Boyd
39. Harley Bennell
40. Marley Williams
41. Taylor Adams
42. Lachie Neale
43. Jackson Macrae
44. Jeremy McGovern
45. Luke Dahlhaus
46. Elliott Yeo
47. Isaac Smith
48. Mark Blicavs
49. Jonathon Patton
50. Tom Nicholls
It's hardly perfect and a 20min attempt on my part, but it's a rough attempt. I could spend a whole day on it and move various players 20 spots up/down. But this roughly would be the 50 I'd go with in a rough order.
Don't know how you can have wingard down at 14th
Cheers for the list, obviously a tricky and subjective excercise it's a good discussion starting point.
Stringer (13), Wingard (14) and Parker (17) I think should all be somewhere within the top ten.
Think McDonald (12!!) is rated astronomically highly there.
Trio of O'Meara (24), Shiel (25) and Treloar (26) stands out as being a little low given some of the names in front of them.
Realise that you are also taking into account future potential, but Gaff (37) is understating him a fair bit.
If not for the danger of Bennell throwing away his talent through stupidity, on performance he could well belong in the top 5.
Hi KM,
Been following your draft analysis as a lurker for a number of years now and greatly appreciative of the time you dedicate to it overall. Just a comment on your top 10 here, I know you prefaced that you might get a bit of heat for being biased on de goey rating him at 1 here but what I find interesting is that Laverde doesn't make your top 10 list despite having virtually the same average numbers per game, more marks and second highest efficiency rate of the rising stars in the comp albeit playing only 9 games. Yes they played different roles but to me at least in the first year of their careers, and I think comparisons will be made between the 2 throughout their careers as I know how much Hine rated Laverde but I think Jayden looks clearly the more exciting prospect at this point in time in terms of promise... Not to say that De Goey won't be a beauty.
Normally I agree with much of what you say but I must say 1 word:
Courageous
But then, only a 20 minute attempt.....
14 even in looking back at the names there feels around about right for Wingard.
He is arguably the general forward I most would want. And he is also excellent through the midfield. But I have a general leaning towards the value of key position players, ruckmen and midfielders. So that likely more so than talent would be where we would disagree on Wingard's ranking and perception of value.
Stringer after that 50 goal season may get in there. With Stringer though I wonder whether he can improve on his performance of this year, and relatively compared to many of the others I have doubts.
In having another quick look over the order. Shiel and Treloar maybe could go higher. And somewhere around 20 feels right for both of them. O'Meara I'd be inclined to move back a fraction, not due to talent but instead due to his knees with degenerative knees which will hurt his longetivity and probably ability to improve greatly on who he is presently.
As for Gaff and outside players more generally. I tend not to rate them relatively less highly, particularly when like Gaff they're not proficient contested ball winners or super high impact players. Gaff is a quality ball user, relatively quick and has great endurance and ability to find the footy. But his impact for me wouldn't allow him to move a whole lot higher than I listed him, if indeed I would elevate his rating.
Bennell on performance I agree is much higher than I rated him. But the risk factor is feeling increasingly high and I anticipate he will be a repeat drug user and continue to have difficulties. I'd love for him to prove me wrong as he is probably a top five talent from this list and not far off on performance to this point either.
For me I'm a contested ball man with dominant contested ball winning ability = impact and more broadly winning.
Laverde I feel will be excellent in his own right. And I loved the signs he showed. De Goey has a 1:1 contested to uncontested ball ratio and much higher tackle numbers. With Laverde less than half of his possessions are contested for some perspective.
With De Goey as he has only played one season. It's a projection. And speculative. Just in those few games De Goey received greater midfield minutes, he showed glimpses that he has the ability to become a top five contested ball winning midfielder in the game. And he has the class, quality of ball use, ability to take marks forward of centre and provide some scoreboard impact that he showed as a junior. So that combination as well as a hunger to improve, the work ethic and leadership ability he already demonstrates screams Brownlow and rapid improvement to be experienced in coming seasons (likely seasons 3+4) as again next season Collingwood's midfield rotation will be tough and tougher than ever to break into.
If I'm wrong with De Goey 4-5 years from now. I'm happy to cop it. But I'm confident other than if he gets hit by the injury bug, that he will be Pendlebury's successor at Collingwood's next generational midfielder.
It was only a 20 minute attempt. So give me an hour it would be better. A day and I'd probably have it pretty well right as I'd be able to in greater depth compare statistics to much more precisely get it right.
My interest is mostly in creating good discussion when there is the interest in something like this. As it is unrealistic to be able to put the time into properly nailing a five year draft top 50.
Andrews would be around that 5 mark. And just that is an endorsement given his draft position.
If I'm to re-do my top 10 power rankings in 5 minutes I'd likely go with:
1. Jordan De Goey
2. Isaac Heeney
3. Darcy Moore
4. Patrick McCartin
5. Harris Andrews
6. Jake Lever
7. Christian Petracca
8. Angus Brayshaw
9. Nakia Cockatoo
10. Jack Steele
*with Touk Miller, Brayden Maynard, Hugh Goddard etc to follow
I'm sure I'll get several "Collingwood bias" comments. But my word, I was so wrong about De Goey and Maynard last year particularly. De Goey has special contested ball winning ability and Maynard I have threatening to push into the top 10 from last years group in his own right as an assumed round one starter. Moore has improved in leaps and bounds and even Mason Cox looks good. That group was incredibly well identified and I encourage people to call me on these rankings a few years from now - credit me if I'm even vaguly in the ball-park with these Collingwood guys, and call me out for it if I'm well wrong and none of them belong anywhere near the top 5.
I think DeGoey certainly looks like a unique prospect with game breaking ability. I see him as a tidier, less explosive version of Dangerfield. I would still be relatively surprised if he ends up a better player than Stringer, Wingard, O'Meara, Shiel, Treloar, Crouch, Lever or Yeo
KM, love your work mate.
Where do you rate Duggan amongst these 10? He certainly had some good games in his debut season and only just missed out on an RS nom.
KM - 1 year on how do you rate Essendons two selections? Would you rate them in roughly the same spots again?
Thanks!
No brandon ellis is robberyI'm sure I completed a top 50 from 2010-2014 somewhere at some point.
I could probably put together a quick update.
I believe someone started a thread on my behalf, I did a 10-20min job putting together some named and that gained legs and started a discussion from there.
For another quick attempt again (2010-2014):
1. Jesse Hogan
2. Jeremy Cameron
3. Tom Lynch (GC)
4. Joe Daniher
5. Marcus Bontempelli
6. Oliver Wines
7. Patrick Cripps
8. Dyson Heppell
9. Jordan De Goey
10. Isaac Heeney
11. Brodie Grundy
12. Tom McDonald
13. Jake Stringer
14. Chad Wingard
15. Jack Darling
16. Tom Liberatore
17. Luke Parker
18. Cameron McCarthy
19. Darcy Moore
20. Paddy McCartin
21. Christian Petracca
22. Angus Brayshaw
23. Jack Billings
24. Jaeger O'Meara
25. Dylan Shiel
26. Adam Treloar
27. Dion Prestia
28. Jack Martin
29. Brad Crouch
30. Stephen Coniglio
31. Jake Lever
32. Harris Andrews
33. Jamie Elliott
34. Tom Mitchell
35. Brodie Smith
36. Bradley Hill
37. Andrew Gaff
38. Tom Boyd
39. Harley Bennell
40. Marley Williams
41. Taylor Adams
42. Lachie Neale
43. Jackson Macrae
44. Jeremy McGovern
45. Luke Dahlhaus
46. Elliott Yeo
47. Isaac Smith
48. Mark Blicavs
49. Jonathon Patton
50. Tom Nicholls
It's hardly perfect and a 20min attempt on my part, but it's a rough attempt. I could spend a whole day on it and move various players 20 spots up/down. But this roughly would be the 50 I'd go with in a rough order.