Prediction PAFC Punters' Thread

[wilbur_15]

Ok, with all this Robbie Gray Brownlow talk I thought I'd have a go at guessing possible votes for him round by round. Here's what I got:

rnd 1 0.5
rnd 2 0
rnd 3 0
rnd 4 0.5
rnd 5 2
rnd 6 0
rnd 7 1
rnd 8 2
rnd 9 0
rnd 10 3
rnd 11 3
rnd 12 0.5
rnd 13 0.5
rnd 14 0
rnd 15 0
rnd 16 0.5
TOTAL 13.5

The 0.5s are where I think he may get 1 vote so figure 0.5 for each is a good rough estimate. Going by this, he'd have to have an awesome last few rounds to win it seeing that the last few winners have had high 20's votes by memory (I don't watch it nowadays).

The way I see it, he's had a brilliant year and very consistent but I think more the type of games that we as knowledgeable fans and coaches spot but stat focused umpires (read lawyers) won't. He's had lots of games in the top 5 players or so but think Boak, Wingard, Schulz etc. will take too many off him and doubt he'll get many for best in losing team as Port never seem to get those.

What do others think? Anyone else wanna comment on a particular round thinking he may get more/less votes?

 

[mic59]

Sportsbet seem to be allowing really weird types of bets at the moment. There's one they call a Mark-us Bomtemtackle where they pay 3.00 if Marcus Bontempelli gets at least 4 marks and 4 tackles. At first glance it looks like a safe bet but when you look at his stats he has played nine games and has only had 4 marks and 4 tackles(in the same game) in two.

Now I'm off to claim my Powerball winnings. Don't run me down in the rush to become my friend, I paid $23.85 for a syndicate entry and won something like $42.00.

 

[Rising Power]

Sportsbet seem to be allowing really weird types of bets at the moment. There's one they call a Mark-us Bomtemtackle where they pay 3.00 if Marcus Bontempelli gets at least 4 marks and 4 tackles. At first glance it looks like a safe bet but when you look at his stats he has played nine games and has only had 4 marks and 4 tackles(in the same game) in two.

Now I'm off to claim my Powerball winnings. Don't run me down in the rush to become my friend, I paid $23.85 for a syndicate entry and won something like $42.00.

Yeah I lost a hefty ransom on one a few weeks back called "Zac the Hac", offering $2 for Zac Dawson to get at least 3 kicks against the Lions. This is after he had only managed to kick more than 3 once for the season. He had 2 kicks Then he got 5 and 7 kicks respectively over the next 2 games

BUT I also had a few come in a few weeks earlier, it was a big round of them actually...J Reiwoldt to have at least 9 scoring shots v GWS ($9!), Dawes to have at least 10 marks v Collingwood...and a few others I forget now.

 

[Young Gun #6]

Ok, with all this Robbie Gray Brownlow talk I thought I'd have a go at guessing possible votes for him round by round. Here's what I got:

rnd 1 0.5
rnd 2 0
rnd 3 0
rnd 4 0.5
rnd 5 2
rnd 6 0
rnd 7 1
rnd 8 2
rnd 9 0
rnd 10 3
rnd 11 3
rnd 12 0.5
rnd 13 0.5
rnd 14 0
rnd 15 0
rnd 16 0.5
TOTAL 13.5

The 0.5s are where I think he may get 1 vote so figure 0.5 for each is a good rough estimate. Going by this, he'd have to have an awesome last few rounds to win it seeing that the last few winners have had high 20's votes by memory (I don't watch it nowadays).

The way I see it, he's had a brilliant year and very consistent but I think more the type of games that we as knowledgeable fans and coaches spot but stat focused umpires (read lawyers) won't. He's had lots of games in the top 5 players or so but think Boak, Wingard, Schulz etc. will take too many off him and doubt he'll get many for best in losing team as Port never seem to get those.

What do others think? Anyone else wanna comment on a particular round thinking he may get more/less votes?

rd.4 0.5
rd.5 2
r.d.6 0.5
rd.7 2
rd.8 2
rd.11 2
rd.12 2
rd.13 1
rd.14 0.5
rd.16 1

= 13.5

not sure he will poll vs hawks. Had boak collected 3, lewis 2, polec 1 and ebert and wingard in the mix for 1.

 

[mic59]

Now I'm off to claim my Powerball winnings. Don't run me down in the rush to become my friend, I paid $23.85 for a syndicate entry and won something like $42.00.

Slight miscalculation. After the syndicate split-up my share was $2.58 which allowed me to splash out on a jar of plum sauce.

 

[tribey]

Sportsbet seem to be allowing really weird types of bets at the moment. There's one they call a Mark-us Bomtemtackle where they pay 3.00 if Marcus Bontempelli gets at least 4 marks and 4 tackles. At first glance it looks like a safe bet but when you look at his stats he has played nine games and has only had 4 marks and 4 tackles(in the same game) in two.

Now I'm off to claim my Powerball winnings. Don't run me down in the rush to become my friend, I paid $23.85 for a syndicate entry and won something like $42.00.

They had one a month or two ago. Dawes to take 6 marks @ 4.00.

Was tempted but Melbourne were smack in the middle of their 'kick anywhere but forward' gameplan.

Dawes had 4 marks by QT and took his sixth before HT. #sadpanda

 

[ozph1870]

mother nature the dirty campaigner played games with me last night. was set up for a handy collect with several multis due to come off if the total points was under 181.5. expecting the forecast wind and rain i thought it was a safe bet. kept one eye on the radar, there was rain all around but none at adelaide oval, as soon as the game finishes, bang here comes the rain, dodgy work there mother nature, you win this time.......

 

[LFC2010]

$101 on centrebet

hopefully those odds don't change much after tomorrow!

 

[x_les_x]

I bet on Griffen to have the most disposals and Brisbane to win in a multi, griffen is a late change out do I get a refund or anything?

 

[El_Scorcho]

My mate multis together the top goalkicker and top possession getter of all 9 games every week and puts a dollar on it. It's impossible but if it ever comes in they owe him about 3 billion dollars.

 

[wilbur_15]

I bet on Griffen to have the most disposals and Brisbane to win in a multi, griffen is a late change out do I get a refund or anything?

On a straight bet they should. Not sure as part of a multi. Hopefully they just remove that leg from the bet.

 

[Schulzenfest]

Carlton vs Norf PYOL +65.5 (Carlton are s**t, but surely they're not that s**t?), into
Freo H2H against St Kilda, into
Geelong H2H against GWS, into
Melbourne vs Pr0tz Powa +41.5

$2.54 multi. Pretty good odds for three near certainties and one result which is a pretty good chance of happening, especially if our selections look like they did over the last two weeks. And to be honest if we return to form with a 7 goal plus win I can probably accept losing a few bucks.

 

[DonDraper]

Been cleaning up on lines recently. Some are just ridiculously long, like last Friday.

 

[Rising Power]

Been cleaning up on lines recently. Some are just ridiculously long, like last Friday.

Carlton line x St Kilda line x GWS line x Melbourne line would've paid $13+. Not sure what the Bulldogs line was (I assume this was the closest of them all), but if that came in the multi for all 5 underdogs would've been at least $24. Wish I had volume 2 of the Sports Almanac from Back to the Future...

 

[Janus]

Sorry, but Robbie Gray hasn't got into sports records yet.

Gray's Sports Almanac...

I'll get my coat.

 

[Schulzenfest]

 

[Forzaport]

That is so damn tempting.

 

[Rising Power]

Sportsbet have Port Adelaide Magpies $6.80 to beat Norwood 40+. Would be nice.

 

[mic59]

Port have firmed in from 1.55 to 1.35 to beat GCS.

 

[Rising Power]

This thread has gone pretty quiet lately. Did everyone do their dough over rounds 14-20?

 

[TheFVK]

The success or failure of my betting year will be governed by how Robbie Gray does in the Brownlow

 

[Tyrion]

Has anybody done a detailed look into Robbie's season and where he can poll votes. Has done very well in coaches awards, well he has won it, but of lot of media awards he has done well but nothing that would indicate Brownlow winner. I can see him maybe getting just under 20 votes which would not be enough to win it. You would think next year he would be capable having an even better year.. and would be in umpires minds from round one. Fingers crossed for him though, have a bit on him at long odds.

 

[x_les_x]

Has anybody done a detailed look into Robbie's season and where he can poll votes. Has done very well in coaches awards, well he has won it, but of lot of media awards he has done well but nothing that would indicate Brownlow winner. I can see him maybe getting just under 20 votes which would not be enough to win it. You would think next year he would be capable having an even better year.. and would be in umpires minds from round one. Fingers crossed for him though, have a bit on him at long odds.

Didn't even know this existed until today but the afl website has a browlow predictor and has gray at 17 votes ebert and boak taking votes off him at 12 each

http://www.afl.com.au/brownlow-medal/predictor

 

[Janus]

Didn't even know this existed until today but the afl website has a browlow predictor and has gray at 17 votes ebert and boak taking votes off him at 12 each

http://www.afl.com.au/brownlow-medal/predictor

If Franklin gets 3 votes for his lucky goals against us and Brad Ebert only gets 1 for his 40 touches, there's gotta be something seriously wrong with the way umpires are adjudicating votes.

 

[It Just Is]

Didn't even know this existed until today but the afl website has a browlow predictor and has gray at 17 votes ebert and boak taking votes off him at 12 each

http://www.afl.com.au/brownlow-medal/predictor

Tom Rockliff on 7 votes.... Not sure I'll put my house on these predictions.

If Franklin gets 3 votes for his lucky goals against us and Brad Ebert only gets 1 for his 40 touches, there's gotta be something seriously wrong with the way umpires are adjudicating votes.

Buddy was pretty clearly best on ground that day. He single-handedly won Sydney the match.