Prediction Who turns it on in 2015?

[Seeds]

What the hell are you talking about?

Yeah it was a typo. Second highlighted Duncan should be Caddy

 

[Seeds]

I'm looking forward to 2020 with Duncan's steady improvement he will be averaging 35 touches by then

What flanker/winger averages 35 possessions?? He has to become a midfielder first.

 

[Seeds]

Gladly disagree with you there. Chronically underrating Duncan.

Duncan has progressed every season and will by the end of 2015 still be better than both those players.

And your chronically underrating Motlop and Caddy.

 

[Seeds]

I don't know how that can be stated as a certainty. I think he can keep improving.



Duncan played in a premiership team in his second season. That's one thing Motlop assuredly has not done.

I'd be curious to know what exactly Caddy can do that Duncan can't. Duncan's a better ballwinner, just as good a mark and a better goalkicker. Plus, as you said, miles more consistent.

Ofcourse its not a certainty. I just don't think he has the talent to get much better and lacks the X factor to make him a star. He's had very little injury troubles compared to all our other young players so if he is not close to his peak by now then he simply hasn't been training hard enough. I don't think this is the case so I don't think he has much further to go.

You are pulling out the premiership argument? Really? You're much better than that. I suppose Shannon Byrnes is better than Gary Ablett Senior? Duncan hardly starred in the flag win anyway. Did some nice contributions but was hardly one of the top players on the ground.

In regards to the Caddy comment, Caddy can win the inside ball and break clear of clearances with the ball in hand. Doesn't do it enough yet but Duncan simply can't do it at all (probably why the coaches rarely bother starting Duncan in the middle as his clearance ability is below par). Duncan is a better kick for goal but I would disagree on marking. They are both equally good in this area. Duncan kills Caddy for consistency but lets compare them after Caddy has had a relatively injury free season first.

 

[Turbocat]

Anyone have positive feelings about GHS?....I do!...he's developing a very strong body and last year showed outstanding courage under pressure at times.
Of course consistency is the big issue that denotes breakthrough, but I'm hoping to see a further improved version this season and a smarter player than he already is.

meto , my first thought is probably the stereotype about GHS , and thats foot speed. We are focused , probably like most sides , on adding pace. Its why players like Varcoe and Murdoch get easier games than others , and till we have a much younger quicker , reliable group that performs in the midfield I feel it will always be something he will have to overcome. Like Rucks , you can carry payers that have limitations if the add strongly in what the do well.

Having a quick look at last years stats , he was P37 in 2010 , is 22 and played 32 games. Ave 67 in SC I agree that SC , is a simplistic way of gauging performance.

Breaking it down , I see he passed 100 SC points 3 times. It shows inspite of his stereotype deficiency he can at his best be a game winning player. Unfortuntely he also had 13 games with 70 or less , and the games people focus on 67 and 43 in the finals. Of course he did start as sub at times but its chicken and the egg. So you are right , if he can lift his consistency he will be a solid player or better, I tend to think he need to find another 10-20% , move his SC average from high 67 to 80 ish , it will mean 6 or 7 games in the 100's with fewer lower scores. Keep involved , build his game tallies.
I look at his ContestedP and UncontestedP for the last three years , 8 & 29 , 58 & 60 , 161 & 185 and one see he is on the way up moving in the right direction.

As I said simplistic. One can not put in what God forgot , and so he must continue to do what he has shown but just more often. At 22 and 32 games , he is now getting to where that should start to happen. He has time but must keep up his incremental improvement. Breakout.. , he seems the classical slow burn

 

[meto]

meto , my first thought is probably the stereotype about GHS , and thats foot speed. We are focused , probably like most sides , on adding pace. Its why players like Varcoe and Murdoch get easier games than others , and till we have a much younger quicker , reliable group that performs in the midfield I feel it will always be something he will have to overcome. Like Rucks , you can carry payers that have limitations if the add strongly in what the do well.

Having a quick look at last years stats , he was P37 in 2010 , is 22 and played 32 games. Ave 67 in SC I agree that SC , is a simplistic way of gauging performance.

Breaking it down , I see he passed 100 SC points 3 times. It shows inspite of his stereotype deficiency he can at his best be a game winning player. Unfortuntely he also had 13 games with 70 or less , and the games people focus on 67 and 43 in the finals. Of course he did start as sub at times but its chicken and the egg. So you are right , if he can lift his consistency he will be a solid player or better, I tend to think he need to find another 10-20% , move his SC average from high 67 to 80 ish , it will mean 6 or 7 games in the 100's with fewer lower scores. Keep involved , build his game tallies.
I look at his ContestedP and UncontestedP for the last three years , 8 & 29 , 58 & 60 , 161 & 185 and one see he is on the way up moving in the right direction.

As I said simplistic. One can not put in what God forgot , and so he must continue to do what he has shown but just more often. At 22 and 32 games , he is now getting to where that should start to happen. He has time but must keep up his incremental improvement. Breakout.. , he seems the classical slow burn

Those stats confirm my admitted assumptions on the young guy, those 3 year P stats are what I was expecting, probably a little on the plus side of my expectations as well for 2014.
Not worried by his lack of burst pace I see him more in the vein of a Sam Mitchell just understands where the balls going and puts himself in that place.
Any young player who can boast 3 games over 100 points and average 67 can play footy, and is showing as good potential as most kids of his limited experience.
I reckon GHS has gone under the radar a bit on here, not so flashy.

Thanks for the stats TC, totally agree with the summation.

 

[Daniel McL]

What flanker/winger averages 35 possessions?? He has to become a midfielder first.

You don't understand sarcasm do ya mate?

 

[Heckler]

Geelong's main problem is that too much is left to too few.
Sure another A grade elite players would be nice
However it would not fix the main problem.
Having more B graders would be better.
Having genuine support players that can beat their opponent
This would stop opponents dropping off to double team the guns
In turn improving the performance of both players.


I tend not to look at possessions as good measure of ranking
Rather judge rank by the ability to beat your opponent.
A grader wins 3/4 contests
B grader wins 2/3 contests
C grader wins 5/10 contests
D grader wins 1/3 contests

Hopefully Duncan, Motlop, Caddy, Guthrie, Blicavs, Stanley, Clark will be solid B graders
With Murdoch, Horlin-Smith, Blease, Walker , Simpson, Bews, Kersten, Smedts, Vardy all C graders holding their own.
While Thurlow, Hartman, McCarthy. Cockatoo, Jansen, Lang learn the trade.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

And your chronically underrating Motlop and Caddy.

Not at all. I rate them both highly, both are going to be important cogs in the midfield for years to come..... but Duncan will by the end of the 2015 season still be better than both. I even think that will be the case at the end of 2017.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

What flanker/winger averages 35 possessions?? He has to become a midfielder first.

It was a joke.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Will be very happy if all that happens tbh.

Improvement like that would be wonderful to see from Josh.

Happy to disagree Re: Duncan however

 

[Seeds]

Not at all. I rate them both highly, both are going to be important cogs in the midfield for years to come..... but Duncan will by the end of the 2015 season still be better than both. I even think that will be the case at the end of 2017.

I rate Duncan highly, he is an important cog in our side ... but by end of 2015, if they have relatively injury free seasons, both Motlop and Caddy will be significantly better than Duncan. To suggest otherwise in my view is underrating their potential as players.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Look we'll agree to disagree, time will tell I guess.

However the reverse could also be said, to suggest otherwise is underrating Duncan in my view

 

[Turbocat]

Those stats confirm my admitted assumptions on the young guy, those 3 year P stats are what I was expecting, probably a little on the plus side of my expectations as well for 2014.
Not worried by his lack of burst pace I see him more in the vein of a Sam Mitchell just understands where the balls going and puts himself in that place.
Any young player who can boast 3 games over 100 points and average 67 can play footy, and is showing as good potential as most kids of his limited experience.
I reckon GHS has gone under the radar a bit on here, not so flashy.

Thanks for the stats TC, totally agree with the summation.

What I found interesting was comparing his stats to Caddy. Both 2010 , so on a similar trajectory but Caddy played more early and is rated much higher

JC played 16 game to GHS 21 ,
JC had 4 games that score over 100 SC , actually had another three in the 90's . GHS had 3 and 2 in the 90's actually one was 99.
JC Ave Sc score of 77 and GHS had an ave of 67

On possessions both averages similar 16.6 & 16.2 for the season.. JC runs slightly higher at the uncontested balance... 129 & 145.

So maybe JC is deemed to have slightly more impact but their stats are not Km's from each other.
I think you may be right , Caddy may be more rated and expected to step up , but George could be someone we underrate but will deliver more than expected. Impact is the key I feel , and his challenge. Both should be ready to become solid players for us.

 

[manboob]

 

[FredLeDeux]

Will lose a friend very quickly if he keeps sharking Tom's tap-outs to Johnno.

 

[Bobby_]

Impact is the key I feel , and his challenge. Both should be ready to become solid players for us.

We do expect a lot don't we?
Both guys are realistically another year, maybe two years away from doing what most other 75-100 gamers do, and that is play consistent week-to-week football. The very fact one has yet to notch up 40 games, the other 58 games into his career and both still only 22 years of age . . . when we look back at Bartel, Ablett, Johnson, Kelly and co, those blokes were never consistent players until they turned 23/24 yrs and had between 90-110 senor games experience under their belt.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

That where I was sitting for that game. Had the perfect view of that whole passage of play. Truly wonderful from George. Will watch again!

 

[manboob]

Get to know: Who is shaping as a surprise packet at your club in 2015?
GEELONG
Jed Bews
Recruited from Geelong Falcons, 184cm, 88kg, seven games
The son of club great Andrew had a small taste of senior football in 2014, playing seven games for the Cats. Bews is being pegged as Geelong's answer in the small defender position next season after the Cats struggled to contain opposition small forwards in last year's finals series. The 21-year-old has been working closely with Corey Enright, Andrew Mackie and Harry Taylor as he continues his defensive development. Bews is quick off the mark and is strong enough to hold his ground in one-on-one marking contests. The Cats handed him the challenge of marking players such as Hayden Ballantyne and Lindsay Thomas last year, and are likely to chuck him in the deep end again in 2015. – Ben Guthrie

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-01-03/get-to-know

 

[Vdubs]

The coach of A-League team Perth Glory was asked why at this stage they are so far ahead of the pack, 7 points up on nearest rival, after their gutsy win at Geelong against Victory, and although it's A League, the reply was relevant.
He said-
-Perth Glory has become difficult if not impossible to play against, both home and away
-Their fitness is elite, have done 50 more running sessions preseason cf other years.(Hope they don't run out of fuel at finals time..)
-The players collectively set about really high standards for this year, given their list-( perhaps we as Geelong are not in such a situation);
-The players are desperate for each other, determined at each contest to be there for their teammate;
-They are desperate to WIN every game, from running out through the tunnel, each week they sense it in each other, and the continual winning is infectious and enjoyable.
The commentators were impressed by his replies to a fairly mundane question- why are you on top?
I know there is some cross fertilisation between the codes, and both Geelong and NM have had team officials observing the day to day and match day goings-on at Melbourne Heart, pre City days.
Wonder if they were doing this last night at Geelong

So the other relevant thought I had was-
THE WHOLE TEAM needs to want to turn it on, each player should want this to be their best season ever, as should we hope is the situation. A player having a blinder is nice, but the team doing so is the ultimate.

For all I know the Glory coach may have been motivated by actually playing at Skilled, may have read our book on the Glory days of 07, 09, 11, to prompt his replies, because what he described WAS Geelong back in those days.

 

[Willo_]

I reckon Caddy overtakes Duncan this season. He has more potential to his game as he's probably the longest kick at the club, can roast them from well outside the 50. I personally rate him a better aerialist as well, although Duncan is very, very good overhead. He's a lot more physical in the Selwood mold and he is also very good on the opposite foot. Factor in his age and the injuries curtailing his development to date, if he does get a free bill of health from now until round 1, he'll become our most damaging midfielder alongside Selwood and probably averages anywhere between 23-25 disposals each and every game becoming an A grade footballer as at the moment, he's inconsistent.

Really liked Caddy's last half of the season and last match in particular, he's played a few good games in September now (Mitch still hasn't stepped up in September), obviously made of the right stuff, now it's a matter of putting it all together this season.

I back big Hawk in here mate.... he has a monster boot on him.

And whilst I also feel Caddy may have a higher ceiling than Duncan I have to disagree with that point highlighted as a factor... Mitch is IMO the best kick in the club, Caddy may be able to thump them long but he can also spray them.... give me Mitch hitting players lace out and not wasting the footy any day...

So Cads can do the grunt work then just give it to Mitch and we will all be happy

 

[Willo_]

Will lose a friend very quickly if he keeps sharking Tom's tap-outs to Johnno.

Yeah SJ's hands in the air at the end there aren't in celebration, more in frustration at a goal that could have been his

 

[Turbocat]

We do expect a lot don't we?
Both guys are realistically another year, maybe two years away from doing what most other 75-100 gamers do, and that is play consistent week-to-week football. The very fact one has yet to notch up 40 games, the other 58 games into his career and both still only 22 years of age . . . when we look back at Bartel, Ablett, Johnson, Kelly and co, those blokes were never consistent players until they turned 23/24 yrs and had between 90-110 senor games experience under their belt.

Yes we do , although less so when we had a gun side imo. GHS is not alone , Bews is another.

 

[Teriyakicat]

meto , my first thought is probably the stereotype about GHS , and thats foot speed. We are focused , probably like most sides , on adding pace. Its why players like Varcoe and Murdoch get easier games than others , and till we have a much younger quicker , reliable group that performs in the midfield I feel it will always be something he will have to overcome. Like Rucks , you can carry payers that have limitations if the add strongly in what the do well.

Having a quick look at last years stats , he was P37 in 2010 , is 22 and played 32 games. Ave 67 in SC I agree that SC , is a simplistic way of gauging performance.

Breaking it down , I see he passed 100 SC points 3 times. It shows inspite of his stereotype deficiency he can at his best be a game winning player. Unfortuntely he also had 13 games with 70 or less , and the games people focus on 67 and 43 in the finals. Of course he did start as sub at times but its chicken and the egg. So you are right , if he can lift his consistency he will be a solid player or better, I tend to think he need to find another 10-20% , move his SC average from high 67 to 80 ish , it will mean 6 or 7 games in the 100's with fewer lower scores. Keep involved , build his game tallies.
I look at his ContestedP and UncontestedP for the last three years , 8 & 29 , 58 & 60 , 161 & 185 and one see he is on the way up moving in the right direction.

As I said simplistic. One can not put in what God forgot , and so he must continue to do what he has shown but just more often. At 22 and 32 games , he is now getting to where that should start to happen. He has time but must keep up his incremental improvement. Breakout.. , he seems the classical slow burn

I'm pretty sure GHS had a back problem at about the same time that SJ had his- R13-ish. Selwood also reportedly struggled with a back injury.

http://injuryupdate.com.au/afl-geelong-cats-injury-list.php
I think when he returned after that, he really wasn't quite the same as pre-injury.

 

[meto]

I'm pretty sure GHS had a back problem at about the same time that SJ had his- R13-ish. Selwood also reportedly struggled with a back injury.

http://injuryupdate.com.au/afl-geelong-cats-injury-list.php
I think when he returned after that, he really wasn't quite the same as pre-injury.

Right you are again Teriyaki, it possibly effected the rest of his season but nevertheless he was travelling better than most realised throughout 2014 and really only now is beginning to mature.
I think 2014 was the pivotal year that saw him emerge from VFL ranks and play regular senior footy, plenty of upside 2015 I think.

Looking at the poll with Caddy on 24 votes and GHS 1, considering their stats are almost the same, it's a promising thing to have another like George who's thereabout but a little forgotten.
We have excellent developing youth.