List Mgmt. OFFICIAL: Dangerfield + Pick 50 for Picks 9, 28 and Dean Gore

[The rabbi]

You're missing one vital point though. Those other teams are irrelevant in discussions because he doesn't want to go to anyone other than Geelong. Besides that, you'd be surprised at the actual figure that has been mooted.

It's well over a mil for the first season.

How do you know these details?

If somehow it doesn't eventuate, don't shoot me.

I won't. But I may ask you to shout me a few pints at LOTI after the footy as penance.

 

[Jon Douglas]

I do not want to contradict SOG - as I was not privy to any conversations he has had with GFC staff.

But I still find it hard to believe that Danga Jnr (I know his dad) would have already decided to leave the Crows before the season has started and has told people this and then those people have told others and it has ended up on out little Forum and thread.

I really hope SOG is right as it would be a shot in the arm for the GFC and its supporters.

He is a gun player but the way he plays concerns me a bit as injury may take its toll on his body quicker than most.

 

[Claude Balls]

Doesn't strike me as the type to base the decision purely on money. Sure it counts, but I've no doubt Geelong is willing to pay big for him and I can't see a Melbourne club outbidding them by a such a margin that he'd pass up the opportunity to go back to his home region.

As for the amount, it will definitely be over a million, at least for the first 1 or 2 seasons. I'm not sure I'd be comfortable for the yearly average to be over a million though. He's a top 5 mid when fit and in form (if not top 5 in the whole comp), though he is very bang crash and IMO is likely to have down patches through niggling injuries as he creeps towards 30 years of age. And I've always wondered how players with incredible athleticism yet incommensurate footskills fare when the athletic advantage begins to fade.

 

[Pivo]

Can the Mods set up a competition to see if people can guess how many pages this thread gets to before season's end?

 

[Pure_Ownage]

You're missing one vital point though. Those other teams are irrelevant in discussions because he doesn't want to go to anyone other than Geelong. Besides that, you'd be surprised at the actual figure that has been mooted.

It's well over a mil for the first season.

Now of course there's a chance Adelaide may well convince him to stay, (it'd be naive to suggest they can't) but as it stands, he has his heart firmly set on his home town.

Like I've said previously, I'm not worried at all in being left with egg on my face again, I'm merely the messenger and I think you all deserve to know what I've been told.

I've also heard from several others with sources, words of similar effect, so I'll remain quite confident he'll be in Geelong colours in 2016.

If somehow it doesn't eventuate, don't shoot me.

I am not knocking your integrity or ability to post things but if your sources are as good as you think they are you would know full well Geelong thought they had Frawley all last year, and likely did, until we were terrible in finals and Hawthorn were outstanding and he backflipped. Whatever Dangerfield or his manager has told Geelong or whatever they have indicated they might do, the same thing can happen. The reality is a player like Dangerfield will be very very well paid whoever he plays for and wants success. For that reason whether we make September next year and how we play once we get there will determine whether we get Dangerfield or not. Everything between now and then is worthless vis a vis whether Dangerfield comes or not, other than being speculation to help newspapers sell their product.

Also a point on what you said about Adelaide not being able to match an offer, there is no way Adelaide will not physically have the cap room to match a Dangerfield offer from Geelong. They may well choose not to match it given the risk involved in doing so, but thats not exactly the same thing.

 

[Turbocat]

Pure_Ownage

Pure , ..the "For that reason whether we make September next year and how we play once we get there will determine whether we get Dangerfield or not." quote ... just what would you say is an acceptable performance? Anything less than a Prelim and he will not be likely to come?
We hear all the time that staff and players really didn't know how good "X" was till they were at the club , so its doubtful he would look at our kids and say they will be good in 2 years.

For mine , we need to show some authority thru the year.remind all that we are a power club. We had too many close wins last year , that leaves one with the feeling of falling over the line. Like a Bank Loan , getting a good player to your club is easier to obtain when you appear not to need him. If we are strong without him , he will be thinking ..I can be the icing. Clark had the full experience at Melb of being the one man solution. Not much fun.

 

[Jon Douglas]

I think we might have our worst start to a season since 2007. We have started so well since then - it has been quite extraordinary. But the draw is hard and it will probably be close to one our least experienced teams to start a season in quite a time. I think if we do not get major injuries we will improve as the season goes on.

And that counts for something - as long as we finish the H&A well and make the top 6 and win one or two finals that should be sufficient for Danga to see that we are again a club on the rise.

And Danga is a pretty smart guy - and he, with the help of GFC in his ear, will know a fair bit about our up and coming players.

Ask yourself if we had Danga playing in the finals for us would have we been a chance to win a final or two ? Maybe.

But add a decent ruckman and a true CHF and we become a pretty good team again - then add Danga and then you say -"yep we could have a couple of finals for sure. So maybe a fair bit depends on Clark, Simpson, Stanley and Vardy this season. If Bews and/or Hartman or another play well in the seniors it will be the icing on the cake in 2015.

GFC is still going thru a transition and will be next season as well. So if Danga is after the money AND a lot of finals and a likely Premiership - he will need to look maybe to 2017 - when the transition will likely be over. Our rival bidders (all in Melb.) I suspect will be Hawks and maybe North or Essendon or Richmond. But those teams are unlikely - so again the team that beat us to Frawley will likely be our biggest competitor if he decides to leave the Crows. We cannot allow that to happen - for our sakes and leagues !

 

[Jimmy Yamazaki]

Pure_Ownage

Pure , ..the "For that reason whether we make September next year and how we play once we get there will determine whether we get Dangerfield or not." quote ... just what would you say is an acceptable performance? Anything less than a Prelim and he will not be likely to come?
We hear all the time that staff and players really didn't know how good "X" was till they were at the club , so its doubtful he would look at our kids and say they will be good in 2 years.

For mine , we need to show some authority thru the year.remind all that we are a power club. We had too many close wins last year , that leaves one with the feeling of falling over the line. Like a Bank Loan , getting a good player to your club is easier to obtain when you appear not to need him. If we are strong without him , he will be thinking ..I can be the icing. Clark had the full experience at Melb of being the one man solution. Not much fun.

I think it's the perceived notion that we're not actually on the slide that is more important. No one will come to us if they think we're about to be the next St Kilda. Reality is we lost to a team that finished 6th and for a while, made us look 3rd rate, so you can understand what Frawley thought.

We've done well to finish in the top 4, but I don't believe we've been a genuine top 4 team since 2011 and we certainly don't play like one come finals.
Obviously it's important to beat Crows next year on the ladder (I hope they miss the 8 again), but I also think we need to finish strongly at a minimum.

If we finish top 4, then make a prelim. If we finish 5-8 then win the first final.Just don't go out on yet another limp effort.

 

[Turbocat]

I think it's the perceived notion that we're not actually on the slide that is more important. No one will come to us if they think we're about to be the next St Kilda. Reality is we lost to a team that finished 6th and for a while, made us look 3rd rate, so you can understand what Frawley thought.

We've done well to finish in the top 4, but I don't believe we've been a genuine top 4 team since 2011 and we certainly don't play like one come finals.
Obviously it's important to beat Crows next year on the ladder (I hope they miss the 8 again), but I also think we need to finish strongly at a minimum.

If we finish top 4, then make a prelim. If we finish 5-8 then win the first final.Just don't go out on yet another limp effort.

Hard to argue about the top4 assessment when our finals record since 2011 is what it is. Seems like we have been good enough with a compromised draw and with some close wins to get there but lacked a sense of authority when it counted. As much anything , its this authority I feel we need to reestablish. Im not sure who we would consider the teams we should hammer but we need to squash more teams this year when its there to do so. At times we had most on the ropes , and generally in the same game we would let them back in. To be fair some of this is due to some injuries we have had to players , but mainly the transition of old to young. And this still may be an issue for us in 2015. Even having confidence in the young guys we have most will still be short of "The Zone" at years end ie around 70 games plus.
Motlop 68
Guthrie 64
Caddy 58
Stanley 58
Blitz 45
Murdoch 42
Blease 33
Smedts 33
GHS 33
One look at that list and we can see we have a lot of hope riding on guys with less games than your really want in solid core group of a side. Gees Motlop has not even knocked up 70 games and we think of him as a key match winner. If we are not very careful , I fear us dropping away again. And what does that do to our Danger hopes?

But from next year on we really start to bounce , one can only hope what ever we do this year , our kids show enough as well.

 

[manboob]

Motlop 68
Guthrie 64
Caddy 58
Stanley 58
Blitz 45
Murdoch 42
Blease 33
Smedts 33
GHS 33

Looking at that list it appears all our youngsters are about 30 games short of where I personally would like them to be.
In 2007 all the kids were pushing 80-110 games.
But that said in 2004-2006 - Young Bartel, Ablett etc didn't have old Bartel, Selwood and SJ in the side...

 

[The rabbi]

Can the Mods set up a competition to see if people can guess how many pages this thread gets to before season's end?

A bit like "guess how many jelly beans are in the jar"?

 

[Jimmy Yamazaki]

Hard to argue about the top4 assessment when our finals record since 2011 is what it is. Seems like we have been good enough with a compromised draw and with some close wins to get there but lacked a sense of authority when it counted. As much anything , its this authority I feel we need to reestablish. Im not sure who we would consider the teams we should hammer but we need to squash more teams this year when its there to do so. At times we had most on the ropes , and generally in the same game we would let them back in. To be fair some of this is due to some injuries we have had to players , but mainly the transition of old to young. And this still may be an issue for us in 2015. Even having confidence in the young guys we have most will still be short of "The Zone" at years end ie around 70 games plus.
Motlop 68
Guthrie 64
Caddy 58
Stanley 58
Blitz 45
Murdoch 42
Blease 33
Smedts 33
GHS 33
One look at that list and we can see we have a lot of hope riding on guys with less games than your really want in solid core group of a side. Gees Motlop has not even knocked up 70 games and we think of him as a key match winner. If we are not very careful , I fear us dropping away again. And what does that do to our Danger hopes?

But from next year on we really start to bounce , one can only hope what ever we do this year , our kids show enough as well.

This is the thing, we're good enough to get good leads on teams but we can't hold it, how many times where we about 5 goals up, for it to be gone in 10 mins into the 3rd? And it wasn't just the good teams, it was like GWS or Carlton. Then we scrape over the line for the win, or teams that're closer end up smashing us. (Port/ GC) I attribute some of that to out fitness, so hopefully we won't get overrun as easily.

I just think too much is left to our skipper, and as you pointed out, will need a lift from some of those boys in the midfield to get back to being a flag threat. we need GHS and Caddy to start pushing 20+ disposal games and Ducan closer to 30 more often. A midfielder getting 15 or less really hurts when they are part of your core.

This is why I want Danger as well, immediately lifts a load off of Selwood. Then we don't have to rely on our kids to necessarily become "elite" they just to be good- to very good and we could be a threat, because Danger is elite. Then we have 2 top 10 midfielders in the comp (you could argue all top 4 teams have at least 2) If SJ hangs around 2016 as well, he will be a lot more free to push forward and provide another very good target in the 50 arc as well as racking up some good numbers in the middle.

 

[manboob]

I just think too much is left to our skipper, and as you pointed out, will need a lift from some of those boys in the midfield to get back to being a flag threat. we need GHS and Caddy to start pushing 20+ disposal games and Ducan closer to 30 more often. A midfielder getting 15 or less really hurts when they are part of your core.

This became our problem for large parts of 2010. Just give the ball to Gazza and he'll do the rest.

 

[Cats Eye]

Not sure if it has been mentioned or not but Dangers has also recently bought a house in geelong. Could be old news though, cant be bothered reading 75 pages.

 

[Claude Balls]

Danger is so attractive to me not simply because we are very light on for elite midfield talent in general, but because we are especially light on for the type of midfield talent that he has in spades. He is exactly the type of player that I cannot see any of our younger players becoming, with the possible exception of Caddy. I.e. a powerful and intimidating contested ball and clearance winner. Also a big body.

As for attracting him, I don't think we necessarily need to make top 4. People in footy have very short memories (we won 17 games last year but our year was essentially condemned for the last two that we lost), so it's really just vital that we finish the year off strongly, and in particular, demonstrate that we have promising youth. This last part is perhaps most important of all. If we win 14 games for the year and the only prime movers under 30 years of age are Selwood, Hawkins, Taylor and Duncan, we'll be in trouble. However if 4 or 5 of the younger guys with 30+ games to their name step up to become week-in-week-out contributors, I think it will go a long way.

And there is also the possibility that Clark and Stanley can make a genuine difference. At the very least, along with the Caddy, Guthrie et al, Clark and Stanley represent a great opportunity for the well documented demographic imbalance in our list to be rectified. And that, IMO, would go a long way to eradicating the perception that we are going down, not up.

 

[Jon Douglas]

I am a little surprised that so many of us are on the same page about the need to improve the midfield and the reason/s it has struggled (too few senior games for too many players) over the past 2-3 years. And the best fix in the short term (get a good mid via FA) and give more time to the best mid coming thru to get them up to speed ASAP.

Maybe great minds think a like or all this stuff is obvious ?

I would add that getting a more effective ruck combo will assist our midfield and I think we can do that over the course of this season - given we finally have some choices rather than having to play whoever is fit. I mean we had Walker rucking (and Hawkins before that) and that is not his go at all.

We look like having a somewhat better ruck set up this year but that is somewhat diminished by the loss of Bundy. But most likely we will still have a better midfield with Caddy, GHS and Guthrie making progress in the midfield. My guess is that we will, by years end (barring injuries), be 10 % or so better re our overall midfield effectiveness.

That might be enough to see us get to Top 6 by year's end. But you also have to account for improvement in some midfield oppositions - like Port, who we could quite easily meet in Sept. this year.

 

[Claude Balls]

I am a little surprised that so many of us are on the same page about the need to improve the midfield and the reason/s it has struggled (too few senior games for too many players) over the past 2-3 years. And the best fix in the short term (get a good mid via FA) and give more time to the best mid coming thru to get them up to speed ASAP.

Maybe great minds think a like or all this stuff is obvious ?

I would add that getting a more effective ruck combo will assist our midfield and I think we can do that over the course of this season - given we finally have some choices rather than having to play whoever is fit. I mean we had Walker rucking (and Hawkins before that) and that is not his go at all.

We look like having a somewhat better ruck set up this year but that is somewhat diminished by the loss of Bundy. But most likely we will still have a better midfield with Caddy, GHS and Guthrie making progress in the midfield. My guess is that we will, by years end (barring injuries), be 10 % or so better re our overall midfield effectiveness.

That might be enough to see us get to Top 6 by year's end. But you also have to account for improvement in some midfield oppositions - like Port, who we could quite easily meet in Sept. this year.

It's obvious to great minds JD. Let's put it that way

But yes, I think most people would acknowledge that the midfield has been our biggest problem recently. It's been a one or two man show for the past two years, with only inconsistent support from developing young players and injured players (Bundy last year for example). Ruck issue didn't help obviously.

However I do think that some posters overrate our midfield youth. IMO of the young players already in the side only Caddy or Guthrie have the potential to become elite, and they are still a long way off. Duncan is ahead of them all and could become truly elite but I don't really consider him the type of player to solve the problem long term. In short, I feel the list currently lacks the cattle to develop a midfield that has a) enough quality mids for rotations, b) enough quality extractors, or big mids, and c) enough really elite midfielders, like Selwood. SJ will be gone by our next flag tilt, which leaves Selwood well and truly on his own. Utlimately the rest are just hypotheticals at this stage, and only a few of them look likely.

 

[manboob]

If Motlop can strengthen up and take the hits (which he cannot do at the moment) he could certainly become something special through midfield. He now has the engine but these soft tissue injuries just make him appear brittle. But he and Duncan could form a wonderful duo on the outside contemplating Selwood/Johnson/Guthrie/Caddy.

He's like Delicious, and like him he'll never have that type of body.

 

[Claude Balls]

If Motlop can strengthen up and take the hits (which he cannot do at the moment) he could certainly become something special through midfield. He now has the engine but these soft tissue injuries just make him appear brittle. But he and Duncan could form a wonderful duo on the outside contemplating Selwood/Johnson/Guthrie/Caddy.

Motlop can be something special running around the middle of the ground without toughening up to take the hits (which he's highly unlikely to do regardless). As you say, he and Duncan could be a very dangerous pair, gut running between half back and half forward, delivering inside 50 and kicking goals themselves.

But the point is, the other 4 you mention do not represent an adequate onball brigade, either now or for the future. SJ can't be factored into future calculations due to his age, and Caddy and Guthrie are not elite currently, and have a long way to go until they are (if they get there at all).

As for the rest, they are either shaping as nothing more than solid B-graders (GHS), or are still more or less unknown quantities (Lang, Hartman, Cockatoo, Jansen etc). Of course, these latter names might well become great players, but a) we don't know that yet and are unlikely to know it by the end of next year when we go after Danger, and b) they're so young and inexperienced that even if they did make it, Selwood, not to mention Hawkins and Taylor, would be 30 or older by the time they were approaching 100 games.

 

[catempire]

Danger is so attractive to me not simply because we are very light on for elite midfield talent in general, but because we are especially light on for the type of midfield talent that he has in spades. He is exactly the type of player that I cannot see any of our younger players becoming, with the possible exception of Caddy. I.e. a powerful and intimidating contested ball and clearance winner. Also a big body.

As for attracting him, I don't think we necessarily need to make top 4. People in footy have very short memories (we won 17 games last year but our year was essentially condemned for the last two that we lost), so it's really just vital that we finish the year off strongly, and in particular, demonstrate that we have promising youth. This last part is perhaps most important of all. If we win 14 games for the year and the only prime movers under 30 years of age are Selwood, Hawkins, Taylor and Duncan, we'll be in trouble. However if 4 or 5 of the younger guys with 30+ games to their name step up to become week-in-week-out contributors, I think it will go a long way.

And there is also the possibility that Clark and Stanley can make a genuine difference. At the very least, along with the Caddy, Guthrie et al, Clark and Stanley represent a great opportunity for the well documented demographic imbalance in our list to be rectified. And that, IMO, would go a long way to eradicating the perception that we are going down, not up.

Spot on. Great post.

 

[crocsta]

Our midfield as average at best. Let's hope Danger wants to come to a team where he can make a real difference.

I've been impressed with Caddy. Duncan is very good. Motlop is elite when he plays.

However, I'm not seeing future All Australian players in Hartman, GHS, Lang, JJ, Murdoch, Guthrie etc. One player may get to that level but as a young group they're not super impressive compared to GWS, GC, Port, Bris

 

[Partridge]

But yes, I think most people would acknowledge that the midfield has been our biggest problem recently. It's been a one or two man show for the past two years, with only inconsistent support from developing young players and injured players (Bundy last year for example). Ruck issue didn't help obviously.

To be honest, I think we've got weaknesses all over the field. I don't think the midfield is the sole glaring problem we have. It's one of many.

 

[TEDDY24INC]

Our midfield as average at best. Let's hope Danger wants to come to a team where he can make a real difference.

I've been impressed with Caddy. Duncan is very good. Motlop is elite when he plays.

However, I'm not seeing future All Australian players in Hartman, GHS, Lang, JJ, Murdoch, Guthrie etc. One player may get to that level but as a young group they're not super impressive compared to GWS, GC, Port, Bris

Guthrie will be elite... GHS will be very handy, Murdoch not a mid.. The others to young to call but Lang looks class and Hartman could be anything

 

[Claude Balls]

To be honest, I think we've got weaknesses all over the field. I don't think the midfield is the sole glaring problem we have. It's one of many.

Yeah it's not the only problem. I do think it's the biggest though.

 

[Stan The Caddy]

I think that Horlin-Smith is drastically under rated on this board. He's not as pretty or as flashy as a few others but I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if he ends up becoming an elite midfielder. He won't be one of those players who has a break out year though. He'll just keep improving year by year and eventually people will start saying to themselves "geez that blokes better than I thought he was".

I'm extremely confident about this bloke and people can hold me to it if they like!