Mega Thread Trade and List Management discussion

[SeaWind]

Judging Hunter as pick 49 is misconstrued because he was a father son and was considered by others as a pick in the 20s. I accept that still isn't pick 2 but I don't think he's lost as much currency as you think. His exposed form hasn't been enough for him to be branded as a bust, which is when the player really loses currency. Brent Prismall a prime example.

I'm not saying he's lost currency, I'm saying he hasn't gained any.

He went at pick 49, and in the 3 years he's been here, I'm hardly convinced he's done enough for opposition clubs to offer a top 30 pick for him.

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

Spot on. People even refer to him as an AA defender around here. I like him a lot and now that I've seen what Rough is capable of in the ruck I'm a helll of a lot more keen on Carlisle. But I'm still very sceptical on giving up much considering the circumstances. I know most players wont go out of their way to **** over a previous club (Griffin aside) but he seems like he absolutely hates it there, I'd be getting into his ear to push for the DFA clause, to at least force essendon into taking unders. **** them they don't deserve shit.

Also I wouldn't want our contract for Carlisle to be too big either. I like our defenders to be honest and he pushes ones of them out.

Fwiw - from the little I've heard, he doesn't hate the club at all. He just thinks it's in his best interests - in both footballing and psychological terms - to move on. I think he loves the club but just isn't sure its right for him at this stage of his personal life.

 

[Dogsman16]

I'm not saying he's lost currency, I'm saying he hasn't gained any.

He went at pick 49, and in the 3 years he's been here, I'm hardly convinced he's done enough for opposition clubs to offer a top 30 pick for him.

North Melbourne nominated him at pick 35. Thats his currency more so than where he was picked up in the draft.

 

[nickacacia]

Yes we are dealing with DoDo but still we won't be giving up that much for Carlisle. As...

• WADA will still be hanging over his head
• Out of Contract - So Essendon have little wriggle room
• Club is somewhat confident that he could nominate us
• Tom Boyd was a number 1 pick and rated one of the best number 1 picks to ever come through (I posted an article on the main board that rated him one of the best number 1 picks in the past decade (Most Dominant))

Essendon have destroyed his value by playing him as a forward, we have only seen ten really good games he has played in defence in 2013, but his value would have gone down having played forward for the past 1 and a half years.

At worst 1st round + steak knives (that being nowhere near a best 22 player) should get it done. We can use the Ryder deal as a template if they want to mention the Boyd deal. Plus if he has a ban/still facing a ban then I'd offer them a second or third rounder. No way we wast a first round pick for a player who could potentially miss two seasons.

Sorry mate struggling to keep up with all the posts so not gonna re-write my opinion repeatedly. What I will say though is another number 1 pick from recent times was Jack Watts and look at what he's become. Too scared to play against Hawthorn wasn't he? Nothing is guaranteed. Number 1 and hype don't count for much really if that's all you go off

 

[BRWB]

But there's obviously the chance Carlisle would lose that case. Ess did beat asada. You'd think they'll be more inclined to fight for Carlisle especially after the asada victory and also if they aren't happy with our offer. They won't want to be screwed over twice out of Paddy and Jc that's certain

Dodoro and a legally aggressive Ess didn't roll over on Ryder because they thought they would win any legal battle. It's pretty clear ess have breached their duty of care ( and their contractual obligations) to their players thereby voiding any existing contracts (Ryder) and if anything making it even tougher with uncontracted players like Jake.

 

[SeaWind]

North Melbourne nominated him at pick 35. Thats his currency more so than where he was picked up in the draft.

If true, I admit he's worth a bit more than I initially suggested. I always thought he was nominated in the 40s.

I still don't think he's done enough to increase his value though, and it's still pretty rare for a player to yield a second rounder when he's not an AFL regular.

 

[Dogsman16]

Sorry mate struggling to keep up with all the posts so not gonna re-write my opinion repeatedly. What I will say though is another number 1 pick from recent times was Jack Watts and look at what he's become. Too scared to play against Hawthorn wasn't he? Nothing is guaranteed. Number 1 and hype don't count for much really if that's all you go off

Jack Watts has had 6 years of a career to find out his worth. Tom Boyd has somewhat proven (only glimpes at this stage) that he is worth pick 1. His value hasn't dropped.

 

[BRWB]

Both sides would think it's unfair, and that's pretty normal because supporters often have an inflated value of their players. Ess have smalls, but they need speed and neither player there addresses that need.

But I keep hearing how quick Hrovat is ;-)

 

[Dogsman16]

If true, I admit he's worth a bit more than I initially suggested. I always thought he was nominated in the 40s.

I still don't think he's done enough to increase his value though, and it's still pretty rare for a player to yield a second rounder when he's not an AFL regular.

I think his worth (trying to put a neutral perspective on things) is around 30 - 37. Thats a second rounder these days keeping in mind that generally the third round starts at pick 40.

 

[Pannalstaroz]

I'm not saying he's lost currency, I'm saying he hasn't gained any.

He went at pick 49, and in the 3 years he's been here, I'm hardly convinced he's done enough for opposition clubs to offer a top 30 pick for him.

I've suggested a pick in the 30s is fair, and I still think that it is. Remember father son selections aren't representative of where they might go in an open draft scenario

For example:
Mitch Wallis pick 22 - valued much higher than that
Libba pick 41 - enough said
Tom Hawkins pick 41 - enough said
Tom Mitchell pick 21
Joe Daniher pick 10

Saying "he's pick 49 and that's his value" is far too simplistic and doesn't take into account the luxuries clubs have enjoyed, including us, up til now in the father son drafting world.

 

[nickacacia]

I'm not quite sure this follows in all honesty. Carlisle's an interesting player...he seems to be rated on a "vibe". He was the AA CHB halfway through 2013, then vanished into nothingness and didn't even make the squad. Prior to this he was a capable, building defender, but not elite. Since the beginning of 2014 he's been a disappointing forward who hasn't looked engaged enough in the game, hasn't taken advantage of his attributes and has performed well under par.

I think Carlisle will become a very good key defender but I don't think you can base your assessment of him as 'elite' and 'proven' on an isolated 10 games in 2013, disregarding the drop in form over the rest of 2013 as well as his disappointing two years since. He wouldn't be the first to hit a rich vein of form and then fail to reproduce it for the rest of his career.

Don't think I said elite. Definitely said great and stand by proven at least in the back half where I believe we'd play him more often than not. I blame Essendon for throwing him around in the forward line for what you called a disappointing two years since or he'd be even more settled down back. Just my opinion I rate him quite highly

 

[Pannalstaroz]

Don't think I said elite. Definitely said great and stand by proven at least in the back half where I believe we'd play him more often than not. I blame Essendon for throwing him around in the forward line for what you called a disappointing two years since or he'd be even more settled down back. Just my opinion I rate him quite highly

If we were to trade Boyd at the end of the year, contract aside, what do you think his value would be?

 

[SeaWind]

I think his worth (trying to put a neutral perspective on things) is around 30 - 37. Thats a second rounder these days keeping in mind that generally the third round starts at pick 40.

I've suggested a pick in the 30s is fair, and I still think that is. Remember father son selections aren't representative of where they might go in an open draft scenario

For example:
Mitch Wallis pick 22 - valued much higher than that
Libba pick 41 - enough said
Tom Hawkins pick 41 - enough said
Tom Mitchell pick 21
Joe Daniher pick 10

Saying "he's pick 49 and that's his value" is far too simplistic and doesn't take into account the luxuries clubs have enjoyed, including U.S., up til now in the father son drafting world.

I'm not disagreeing with the bolded, I'm saying the opposition clubs are likely to disagree. Their idea of fair is generally different to ours.

I said Pick 49 because I thought his bid came at pick 40-something, which is basically the same thing. Now that I know North offered 35, my opinion has changed.

 

[Pannalstaroz]

I'm not disagreeing with the bolded, I'm saying the opposition clubs are likely to disagree. Their idea of fair is generally different to ours.

I said Pick 49 because I thought his bid came at pick 40-something, which is basically the same thing. Now that I know North offered 35, my opinion has changed.

So you now agree with me and the last 2 hours was wasted?

 

[nickacacia]

Then how does Tom Boyd's currency drop so significantly after a season and a half of football. Tom Boyd is worth pick 1 in 2013, he was at the end of 2014 and he does now. Boyd holds way more currency than Carlisle.

Don't think you're quite grasping my point but that's cool. I don't think Boyds value has dropped he was rightfully taken number 1 in that draft. To be clear having Tom Boyd is great I'm just saying if given the choice i personally would have Carlisle in the team before him

 

[Pannalstaroz]

I'm not disagreeing with the bolded, I'm saying the opposition clubs are likely to disagree. Their idea of fair is generally different to ours.

I said Pick 49 because I thought his bid came at pick 40-something, which is basically the same thing. Now that I know North offered 35, my opinion has changed.

Just for future reference, I'm happy to admit I'm wrong and also love to debate topics, but I do have a reasonable feel for the trading landscape and I give my posts a bit of thought

 

[SeaWind]

So you now agree with me and the last 2 hours was wasted?

I've been maintaining this stance the whole way through, you misinterpreted my argument.

I personally think he's worth a first rounder, but there's no way he's worth that on the market, and I'm still doubtful he'll yield a second rounder.

 

[Pannalstaroz]

Don't think you're quite grasping my point but that's cool. I don't think Boyds value has dropped he was rightfully taken number 1 in that draft. To be clear having Tom Boyd is great I'm just saying if given the choice i personally would have Carlisle in the team before him

But you also need to admit you're comparing a 19yo to a 23yo, which is slightly misguiding. If Tom doesn't have more impact than Carlisle on the game in 4 more years I'll be hugely surprised.

 

[nickacacia]

You'd be in a huge minority.

Yes, I can see that. In a few years that stat might be different who knows

 

[Dogsman16]

Don't think you're quite grasping my point but that's cool. I don't think Boyds value has dropped he was rightfully taken number 1 in that draft. To be clear having Tom Boyd is great I'm just saying if given the choice i personally would have Carlisle in the team before him

Carlisle would be one of the first picked in our team so of course he is a better player (although not as a forward as they have both kicked the same amount of goals this year). Essendon haven't done any favours for his trade value.

 

[fronkalicious]

Fwiw - from the little I've heard, he doesn't hate the club at all. He just thinks it's in his best interests - in both footballing and psychological terms - to move on. I think he loves the club but just isn't sure its right for him at this stage of his personal life.

He ain't a fan of the skipper in waiting and the direction he'll take the club, that's for sure.

 

[SeaWind]

I give up - you clearly don't understand subjectivity. You think it...so it's FACT.

We see a bit of that attitude on this board from time to time.

and to the ignore list you go.

I thought it was against the rules to intentionally provoke negative responses, but apparently not. At least I won't have to waste my time reading your bile anymore.

 

[Yojimbo]

I've suggested a pick in the 30s is fair, and I still think that it is. Remember father son selections aren't representative of where they might go in an open draft scenario

For example:
Mitch Wallis pick 22 - valued much higher than that
Libba pick 41 - enough said
Tom Hawkins pick 41 - enough said
Tom Mitchell pick 21
Joe Daniher pick 10

Saying "he's pick 49 and that's his value" is far too simplistic and doesn't take into account the luxuries clubs have enjoyed, including us, up til now in the father son drafting world.

You forgot to mention Ayce Cordy pick 14, the gods above owed us a
little hence the Wallis/Libba picks. I think the Jarrad Grant pick 5 and
the Tom Williams pick 6 not to mention Christian Howard pick still sees
us with plenty of credits or free tickets for the karma bus.

 

[HK_Bulldog]

You did it again, give me some historical evidence that he's not worth 27-40.

Of the top of my head, I can think of Ben Jacobs at North as a reference point. He was drafted at 16 by Port. Showed about as much as Hunter has, then went for pick 37 to North a couple years later.

 

[BRWB]

If a number of people posting here communicated with strangers in a pub in the manner they do here....gee well let's just say forums like this definitely keep the assault rates down.