Mega Thread Trade and List Management discussion

[TheHoneyBadger]

He ain't a fan of the skipper in waiting and the direction he'll take the club, that's for sure.

We've heard Heppell is a tool, but what do you mean by direction of the club?

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

Of the top of my head, I can think of Ben Jacobs at North as a reference point. He was drafted at 16 by Port. Showed about as much as Hunter has, then went for pick 37 to North a couple years later.

Bit of a different scenario - he was out of contract, refused to stay and elected North. Even then, Port rejected the trade. He entered the draft and North selected him with pick 37.

I'm having real trouble coming up with a past example that's at all analogous to Hunter's situation.

 

[Pannalstaroz]

You forgot to mention Ayce Cordy pick 14, the gods above owed us a
little hence the Wallis/Libba picks. I think the Jarrad Grant pick 5 and
the Tom Williams pick 6 not to mention Christian Howard pick still sees
us with plenty of credits or free tickets for the karma bus.

Agree with Ayce, but the others weren't father sons and therefore not relevant here. We could write 5 volumes on drafting mistakes by the Dogs.

 

[nickacacia]

Jack Watts has had 6 years of a career to find out his worth. Tom Boyd has somewhat proven (only glimpes at this stage) that he is worth pick 1. His value hasn't dropped.

Somewhere someone has assumed I've said Boyds value has dropped but I haven't. Boyd at 19 cost our captain and 1st rounder. Carlisle still only 23 is worth at least a young gun and first rounder is what I actually said. And this weekend against port if I could only pick one of Tom Boyd or Carlisle to be in our team I'd pick Carlisle. In 5 years Boyd could and hopefully will be a better KPP than Carlisle. I'm saying i rate Carlisle, I'm not putting down Boyd at all. Hope that's more clear

 

[Dogsman16]

Somewhere someone has assumed I've said Boyds value has dropped but I haven't. Boyd at 19 cost our captain and 1st rounder. Carlisle still only 23 is worth at least a young gun and first rounder is what I actually said. And this weekend against port if I could only pick one of Tom Boyd or Carlisle to be in our team I'd pick Carlisle. In 5 years Boyd could and hopefully will be a better KPP than Carlisle. I'm saying i rate Carlisle, I'm not putting down Boyd at all. Hope that's more clear

Fair enough and you have put forth you opinion pretty well so no issues from me.

By young gun and first rounder (what do you define as young gun - like a name on our list who you would think is a fair trade + the first rounder)

 

[nickacacia]

But you also need to admit you're comparing a 19yo to a 23yo, which is slightly misguiding. If Tom doesn't have more impact than Carlisle on the game in 4 more years I'll be hugely surprised.

I agree entirely. Don't doubt Boyd at all

 

[Mutt]

Somewhere someone has assumed I've said Boyds value has dropped but I haven't. Boyd at 19 cost our captain and 1st rounder. Carlisle still only 23 is worth at least a young gun and first rounder is what I actually said. And this weekend against port if I could only pick one of Tom Boyd or Carlisle to be in our team I'd pick Carlisle. In 5 years Boyd could and hopefully will be a better KPP than Carlisle. I'm saying i rate Carlisle, I'm not putting down Boyd at all. Hope that's more clear

That's a pretty reasonable position in my view. Carlisle is a proven quantity at AFL level and would be a great get for us right now - in three years though, Tom Boyd could be an elite key forward.

 

[fronkalicious]

We've heard Heppell is a tool, but what do you mean by direction of the club?

Just that he's a complete tool and is indoctrinating the next gen of bombers who worship him.

 

[Pannalstaroz]

Were any of the Yeo, Docherty etc trades similar?
Or Karnezis?

 

[BRWB]

Somewhere someone has assumed I've said Boyds value has dropped but I haven't. Boyd at 19 cost our captain and 1st rounder. Carlisle still only 23 is worth at least a young gun and first rounder is what I actually said. And this weekend against port if I could only pick one of Tom Boyd or Carlisle to be in our team I'd pick Carlisle. In 5 years Boyd could and hopefully will be a better KPP than Carlisle. I'm saying i rate Carlisle, I'm not putting down Boyd at all. Hope that's more clear

No argument on your rating of Boyd and Carlisle, but you are comparing apples and oranges due to wada.

Ryder is a better player than Carlisle. Ryder was contracted, Carlisle isn't. Carlisle is younger. Anymore than what port paid for Ryder for Carlisle is overpaying IMO. Boyd's value is irrelevant IMO.

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

Bit of a different scenario - he was out of contract, refused to stay and elected North. Even then, Port rejected the trade. He entered the draft and North selected him with pick 37.

I'm having real trouble coming up with a past example that's at all analogous to Hunter's situation.

Ok, I think I've got something close - Mitch Hallahan.

Obviously very different players, but their situation is somewhat similar. Hallahan was taken with pick 38, so a few picks later than Hunter's nomination from North (pick 35). He plays several games, displaying clear talent, but not enough output to maintain a regular spot. A few years down the track, while still in contract, he entertains other offers and eventually agrees to move to the Gold Coast. Hawthorn receive picks 47 and 49 in return.

Not a perfect example, but it's as close as I can think of.

 

[Mutt]

and to the ignore list you go.

I thought it was against the rules to intentionally provoke negative responses, but apparently not. At least I won't have to waste my time reading your bile anymore.

By all means put me on ignore if that's what you want to do.

You have done a back-flip in relation to Hunter and so your "historical fact" has now been shown by yourself to have been an opinion which you now think was erroneous.

I don't see that I was intentionally provoking negative responses. I'm not a troll. nor did I bait you or anyone.

 

[glenashley]

Wow. Interesting morning on the thread!
I specifically come on here to hear the views of people like fronk and panna who are clearly in the know with inside info.
If panna says that Hunter has some interest from other clubs I'd believe it and if trading him can improve our list then I'm all for it.

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

Were any of the Yeo, Docherty etc trades similar?
Or Karnezis?

All three were out of contract I think, and selected a desired destination - both of which decrease value. Docherty was pick 12, so significantly more highly rated early on. Yeo's close, but he played most games for Brisbane before deciding to leave - so he'd shown (a) better form, and (b) more form.

Karnezis is a difficult one to assess. Pick 25, showed a hell of a lot of talent, but couldn't cement a place in the side because of work rate/tank/lack of output/etc. The trade was also a player trade, which makes it difficult to assess "pick value". Jackson Paine looks a bust as well so that doesn't help.

 

[SeaWind]

Ok, I think I've got something close - Mitch Hallahan.

Obviously very different players, but their situation is somewhat similar. Hallahan was taken with pick 38, so a few picks later than Hunter's nomination from North (pick 35). He plays several games, displaying clear talent, but not enough output to maintain a regular spot. A few years down the track, while still in contract, he entertains other offers and eventually agrees to move to the Gold Coast. Hawthorn receive picks 47 and 49 in return.

Not a perfect example, but it's as close as I can think of.

I'd argue when a team wins 2 consecutive flags, even depth players start receiving a bit of demand. It's no coincidence Hallahan, Cheney, Lowden and Kelly are still on AFL lists.

 

[nickacacia]

Fair enough and you have put forth you opinion pretty well so no issues from me.

By young gun and first rounder (what do you define as young gun - like a name on our list who you would think is a fair trade + the first rounder)

Fair enough and you have put forth you opinion pretty well so no issues from me.

By young gun and first rounder (what do you define as young gun - like a name on our list who you would think is a fair trade + the first rounder)

Awesome. I don't want to give you a rubbish answer but that's a hard question coz I think essendon will want overs and we definitely won't want to give up anyone from our young brigade worth hanging on to. Because of the threat of court I can see the bombers asking for jj and first rounder who they enquired about in the past. I wouldn't make this trade personally but u gotta give up something. Maybe hrovat. I'd say any of jong/hunter/honey may come into it if there was talk of swapping picks around as well. Bont, macrae, stringer obviously untouchables. But can't see hunter and first round alone getting it done

 

[Pannalstaroz]

All three were out of contract I think, and selected a desired destination - both of which decrease value. Docherty was pick 12, so significantly more highly rated early on. Yeo's close, but he played most games for Brisbane before deciding to leave - so he'd shown (a) better form, and (b) more form.

Karnezis is a difficult one to assess. Pick 25, showed a hell of a lot of talent, but couldn't cement a place in the side because of work rate/tank/lack of output/etc. The trade was also a player trade, which makes it difficult to assess "pick value". Jackson Paine looks a bust as well so that doesn't help.

Ok thanks. Yep they're bad examples. My bad.

 

[VitalDread]

Why would we swap our 2nd rounders and not just keep 2 2nd rounders?

Because

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

I'd argue when a team wins 2 consecutive flags, even depth players start receiving a bit of demand. It's no coincidence Hallahan, Cheney, Lowden and Kelly are still on AFL lists.

I do agree, but the two situations are never going to be perfectly comparable and that's a lesser issue than many other examples present. If we're going off that precedent, he's worth somewhere in the vicinity of pick 40-50 - which is fairly close to what I'd expect anyway. Minor deterioration of value due to lack of consistent output but enough talent for a club to trade a later, but still reasonable, pick for.

 

[VitalDread]

Just out of interest would people consider hunter and Hrovat for Carlisle ie no picks??

Prefer to keep Hrovat, he's proven he can play afl footy and is only just beginning to develop as a midfielder

 

[BRWB]

I do agree, but the two situations are never going to be perfectly comparable and that's a lesser issue than many other examples present. If we're going off that precedent, he's worth somewhere in the vicinity of pick 40-50 - which is fairly close to what I'd expect anyway.

So similar to L Jizz??? After all that??

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

So similar to L Jizz??? After all that??

Unfortunately yes, from my perspective at least. Jones' value was (probably wrongfully) inflated slightly due to still being a young key position player that had put in some extremely good performances. Hunter's value has deteriorated slightly by way of not being a consistent presence at AFL level in a pretty bad (until this year) side, average performances at the level and by being a smaller forward/mid.

 

[Zgope1]

I wouldn't go near Carlisle with our first rounder. I'm not risking our rebuild on two asada boys. Anything less than the first pick though and I'd look at it. But conflicted. High risk high reward.

 

[Mutt]

Unfortunately yes, from my perspective at least. Jones' value was (probably wrongfully) inflated slightly due to still being a young key position player that had put in some extremely good performances. Hunter's value has deteriorated slightly by way of not being a consistent presence at AFL level in a pretty bad (until this year) side, average performances at the level and by being a smaller forward/mid.

Hunter's ceiling may be considered to be pretty high by some though. I wouldn't be surprised if a Hunter trade yielded a pick somewhere around where Norf originally bid for him - so mid 30's.

 

[inamedthegiants]

Somewhere someone has assumed I've said Boyds value has dropped but I haven't. Boyd at 19 cost our captain and 1st rounder. Carlisle still only 23 is worth at least a young gun and first rounder is what I actually said. And this weekend against port if I could only pick one of Tom Boyd or Carlisle to be in our team I'd pick Carlisle. In 5 years Boyd could and hopefully will be a better KPP than Carlisle. I'm saying i rate Carlisle, I'm not putting down Boyd at all. Hope that's more clear

Boyd will be unstoppable.
Don't let the media and other BF posters put doubt in your head. The kid is a farking star in the making.