- Jun 21, 2009
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Plenty of confidence, I can't wait to play you guys
It's going to be a great race to the finish. Regardless who makes the GF, it will be a great one I think
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Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines
- Thread starter Final Siren
- Start date
- Tagged users None
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Plenty of confidence, I can't wait to play you guys
It's going to be a great race to the finish. Regardless who makes the GF, it will be a great one I think
- Aug 27, 2007
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- Everton_East Freo_Atalanta_Tranmere
I don't get all the talk that Freo "don't score enough"
As it stands we have kicked a whopping 23 points less than Sydney in the 13 rounds (that's less than 2 points a game on average) - yet they are somehow so much more attacking than us? And that's with guys like Buddy and Tippet playing for them - who are supposed to be getting big bags each week
As it stands we have kicked a whopping 23 points less than Sydney in the 13 rounds (that's less than 2 points a game on average) - yet they are somehow so much more attacking than us? And that's with guys like Buddy and Tippet playing for them - who are supposed to be getting big bags each week
Yeah I was going off the prediction that we win our games we "should" win, Melb, Crows at home, Saints, GC & Dogs, and Drop Freo, Hawks, Pies, Swans & Crows away. On current form, you'd think we could pinch 1 of the 5 harder games, and maybe finish on 15 wins, But Pies will be right behind us, they should win at least 7 of their last 10, maybe more so they will be right with us, if not over taking us, we are one game ahead of them ATM. Freo are already there, Swans will be too, so leaves us Pies and Hawks, with us 1 win ahead of them. I think we'll finish 5th.
Far better than against Sydney or the Hawks away. Don't think we have won either since 2007.
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Spoken4
Norm Smith Medallist
Surely you would prefer Sydney at Subiaco rather than Freo at Subiaco?
- Apr 8, 2006
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I might be wrong but I just think when it comes to the big crunch games between top 4 sides, WCE stick out as the inexperienced team.
Freo, Syd and Hawthorn have the experience in these big games. Until I see WCE get through the coming battles, I won't rate them as a chance this year.
Freo, Syd and Hawthorn have the experience in these big games. Until I see WCE get through the coming battles, I won't rate them as a chance this year.
Hadn't come across this thread in my time on BF. Amazing tool that's been built.
Has there been retrospective analysis based on final ladder positions/finals results in previous years to see how much the model predicted right based on its predictions after each round? I would imagine the accuracy of prediction would go up at the end of the year to culminate in R23, but would be interesting to see how much it does get right from this period of the season onwards.
Has there been retrospective analysis based on final ladder positions/finals results in previous years to see how much the model predicted right based on its predictions after each round? I would imagine the accuracy of prediction would go up at the end of the year to culminate in R23, but would be interesting to see how much it does get right from this period of the season onwards.
I would, but the poster you quoted may not. And he would not be without reason due to the comparable recent record v Freo at Subi (3/9) against Sydney (0/4)
If Collingwood lose 3 of their next 10, we'd need to lose 5 of our next 10 to finish below them. Assuming the Hawks beat them.
Think it's more based on the past few weeks than season long. Might tell a different story comparing the last 3-4 weeks than 13.
Giving Collingwood only 7 wins was being a little conservative I think, going on their current form, they'll more likely win 8 or 9, which will definitely have them jumping us.
Their games to come
Hawks
Port (away)
Eagles
Dogs
Melbourne
Carlton
Sydney (away)
Richmond
Cats
Bombers
They'd be favourites in 8 of those, and I wouldn't put it past them to beat the Hawks, or Swans in Sydney.
Final Siren usually does some sort of analysis. Sometimes he's used predicted rungs vs actual to give an accuracy %. He posted something a few months back.
Hawks will probably win 8 of their last 10 too. Possibly more, so they'll jump us too, so if we drop 3 games for the rest of the year we won't make top 4. Hence why I originally said it'll probably take 17 wins to make it. I guess the good thing is we play both Pies & Hawks, so beat them, and we go a long way to getting there.
They've already lost to Richmond and Geelong, so not sure that they'd be favourites in those. With their young team I would expect them to drop a couple of games that they're expected to win. I don't see them making top four to be honest.
Yeah I'm not so sure, they're looking pretty good ATM. Like you say though, they are young, as are we so we'll both likely lose a few more. Tight finish that's for sure.
Spoken4
Norm Smith Medallist
They have an amazing record of beating Sydney.
Exactly, especially in Sydney, although that game is at the SCG, all their recent wins over the Swans have been at ANZ, not sure if that really matters though. They'll go up there very confident.
You think they'll win 8 or 9 of those? I have it closer to 6. But I've been a bit slower on the uptake with Collingwood than most, so I could well be wrong. But they're a younger side, playing good footy right now but they've lost to teams around them- I think Hawks, Port, Eagles, Dogs, Sydney and Richmond are all really big challenges for the Pies.
I reckon they'll drop the Hawks game & the Swans, and like I said, they could easily win those, they could also just as easily lose to us & Richmond, but really, they should win all the others. I guess we just keep on winning and don't worry about anyone else. Then again, none of us would be here right now if we weren't worried what every other team is doing
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I think the squiggle has Collingwood about right to be honest. Sure, they've surpassed expectations, and played really well against Freo on Thursday night, but their run home is definitely tougher than their first half of the season, and as I mentioned before, I expect that they will drop at least a game or two that they are expected to win at this stage, due to the fatigue of many of their younger players as the season wears on, so an upset or two would prove very handy in their quest for top four.
I think West Coast's greater home advantage should see them able to capitalise on their start to the season and clinch 4th place. I wouldn't discount Richmond from the top four mix altogether either, but the question for the Tiges is whether or not they can bring the same effort every week. I think they will be ruing their losses to the Bulldogs and Melbourne after round 23, although the former in hindsight wasn't really that poor.
I think West Coast's greater home advantage should see them able to capitalise on their start to the season and clinch 4th place. I wouldn't discount Richmond from the top four mix altogether either, but the question for the Tiges is whether or not they can bring the same effort every week. I think they will be ruing their losses to the Bulldogs and Melbourne after round 23, although the former in hindsight wasn't really that poor.
Dinner Plate
Cancelled
For a thread about stats and algorithms, it now has too many feels.
Jimmybob
Premiership Player
- May 26, 2012
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Been watching this thread each week, but haven't posted in here yet. Just wanted to quickly say how awesome this is Final Siren. Big props and appreciate the weekly updates! Honestly think this thread should be stickied to the main board.
cryptor
Brownlow Medallist
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Is that what you feel?
YippeeYiYeo
Norm Smith Medallist
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surprising to see Freo on the animated squiggle dropping down the top 4. IMO i think they have done it just right. A team goes through a bad patch in form yet keeps on winning, if only just. When they get players back they will hit their straps just at the right time of year.
Better to be having a rough patch now than peaking too early.
Better to be having a rough patch now than peaking too early.
evo
Let's hit the f*ken road!
Richmonds squiggle confirms what i ve been sensing the last few weeks that we are becoming more successful in attack. The three pronged tall forward line is starting to gel.
We really need to blow a side away in the next few weeks if we are to claim genuine contention.
We really need to blow a side away in the next few weeks if we are to claim genuine contention.
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