Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

[Bokonon]

The Crows are 1-2 midfielders short I think. We've got an awesome attack (as the Squiggle shows), but we lose games either because we get smashed out the middle (Bulldogs game), lack composure (Hawks game) and continue to get scored on too easily, often by sides getting out the back.

By class I meant the run and carry in games like Port and Richmond which was breathtaking at times. I 'm not going to write off any team that can do that.
Bulldogs are fierce inside and any team is going to struggle at that part of the game against them in my view.

 

[Tippett2Goal]

I think the Hawks flag pole has retained height as it's still using data from 2015 which includes that 3 week period where we belted 1st place Freo (115 - 43), Sydney away (46 - 157) and Carlton (173 - 35). And also our finals matches against Adelaide (135 - 61) and West Coast (107 - 61).

Plus I think Final Siren has said the flagpole rates a team scoring and winning big more than anything else. Losing and scoring small might be the opposite but it must not be as big a factor.

If you want to know what it takes for the Hawks to be knocked off that perch then it's up to the next few teams to continue scoring and winning big.

I think its also to do with the fact Sydney only just beat Brisbane, and lost to Richmond, Geelong Lost to Collingwood and someone else rnd 2?, and GWS calc still includes last year + loss to Melb rnd 1.

And whilst the Roos havent lost they have failed to beat the squiggles line in 3 or 4 games, which means they are not gaining ground either.

 

[cryptor]

Did lol.


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I do hope you lol'd because you "got it"

 

[Bloody]

I do hope you lol'd because you "got it"

Well if I didn't that comment wouldn't be all that funny would it


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[momentbymoment]

That's why personally I find the explosive squiggle a better indication of a team's season.

Can you link to the explosive squiggle?

 

[SilentHunter_]

Can you link to the explosive squiggle?

I don't have a link for it, but Final Siren posted it on one of the rounds, up to him if he wants to post it again or not.

 

[cryptor]

Well if I didn't that comment wouldn't be all that funny would it


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Depends on your sense of humour

 

[Bloody]

Depends on your sense of humour

In that case I 'almost' got the punchline [emoji6]


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[Final Siren]

I don't have a link for it, but Final Siren posted it on one of the rounds, up to him if he wants to post it again or not.

Here it is! Chart where everyone starts the year at 50/50:

 

[The Swans Blog]

The 2016 form certainly looks more reflective of where the teams are actually at, which looks like Squiggles are playing catch up on. I think Sydney being considered the most defensive team in the league while being the 7th or 8th most attacking team is probably wrong, at least based on the ladder PF & PA. Melbourne and GWS look about right too on the explosive squiggle.

Surprisingly, Collingwood are above Hawthorn on the explosive squiggle.

Any chance that you can add an option to swap between the regular squiggle and the explosive squiggle on the Squiggles site? Or at least switch between other algorithms? I know you've got more than 100 so it'll be rather exciting to see how each compare against one another.

 

[Final Siren]

Explosive squiggle is usually a worse predictor. For example, over the last 10 years, regular squiggle has run at 71% tips while explosive squiggle is 67%. But this year is different! A large number of teams apparently changed form dramatically over the off-season, so you'll have done better at tipping if you were quicker to throw away 2015 form.

We'll see whether this holds up over the whole season. But regular squiggle is currently on 54 tips (66.7%), which is a bit ho-hum, while the explosive squiggle, ignoring 2015 form, has 59 (72.8%). And explosive flagpole has 64 (79.0%)!

The 2016-only algorithms are helped by the fact that all the home teams won in Round 1, so they get 9/9 right off the bat, even though they had no form rating for any teams. But the gap has widened since then, suggesting there are real, significant on-field changes.

 

[free tara brown]

Somewhat surprising Carlton are ranked so low on the explosive squiggle despite having a decent start to the year.

Final Siren, would it be possible to search your archives and tell us which game, according to the normal squiggle, was the most explosive over the past 20 years? Or top 10 games that were most explosive?

Only asking because GWS's movement is both sustained and positive like few other teams I've seen since you started this, but it's also made up of enormous movements, like their thrashing of the Hawks. Wondering if there have been any bigger movements than that.

 

[free tara brown]

And explosive flagpole has 64 (79.0%)!

What does the explosive flagpole look like? I'd imagine GWS at or near the top.

 

[free tara brown]

Final Siren, would it be possible to search your archives and tell us which game, according to the normal squiggle, was the most explosive over the past 20 years? Or top 10 games that were most explosive?

Actually I'd imagine that Geelong's 96 point destruction of Collingwood in the final round of 2011 was the biggest single movement from one game in the past 20 years. I don't think I've ever seen a game like that.

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

For the record... away records against top 4 sides of the last 15 premiers (including finals but excluding grand finals):
Hawthorn 2015: 3-1 (3-1 interstate)
Hawthorn 2014: 0-3 (0-2 interstate)
Hawthorn 2013: 1-1 (1-0 interstate)
Sydney 2012: 1-0 (1-0 interstate)
Geelong 2011: 2-1 (0-1 interstate)
Collingwood 2010: 2-1 (0-0 interstate)
Geelong 2009: 0-2 (0-0 interstate)
Hawthorn 2008: 0-1 (0-0 interstate)
Geelong 2007: 2-0 (1-0 interstate)
West Coast 2006: 2-1 (2-0 interstate)
Sydney 2005: 1-4 (1-4 interstate)
Port Adelaide 2004: 1-1 (1-1 interstate)
Brisbane 2003: 3-2 (3-2 interstate)
Brisbane 2002: 0-3 (0-3 interstate)
Brisbane 2001: 0-2 (0-2 interstate)

OVERALL AWAY RECORD OF PREMIERS vs TOP 4 TEAMS: 18-23
INTERSTATE RECORD OF PREMIERS vs TOP 4 TEAMS: 13-16
PREMIERS WITH WINNING AWAY RECORD vs TOP 4 TEAMS: 7/15
TEAMS THAT WON A PREMIERSHIP WITHOUT A TOP 4 WIN INTERSTATE (exc. GF): 4/12 (excludes 3 teams that did not play a top 4 side interstate)



Squiggle still rates the Eagles highly because the games it lost, it was likely to lose. And they were games that even a premiership-favourite team might lose.

Wow, I'm surprised that the Premiers have had such a poor record vs Top 4 teams. I guess a lot comes down to being in good form come finals time.

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

By class I meant the run and carry in games like Port and Richmond which was breathtaking at times. I 'm not going to write off any team that can do that.
Bulldogs are fierce inside and any team is going to struggle at that part of the game against them in my view.

The trouble is GWS are also a really good clearance team. So I think we may struggle against GWS in that area this weekend.

The Crows are really good at going quickly from defence to attack. I think opposition teams are adjusting though and getting better at stopping that run. Geelong, for example, really shut down Smith and Seedsman, which restricted our movement quite a bit. It was only their poor goalkicking that kept us in the game.

 

[Big_Birdy]

Explosive squiggle is usually a worse predictor. For example, over the last 10 years, regular squiggle has run at 71% tips while explosive squiggle is 67%. But this year is different! A large number of teams apparently changed form dramatically over the off-season, so you'll have done better at tipping if you were quicker to throw away 2015 form.

We'll see whether this holds up over the whole season. But regular squiggle is currently on 54 tips (66.7%), which is a bit ho-hum, while the explosive squiggle, ignoring 2015 form, has 59 (72.8%). And explosive flagpole has 64 (79.0%)!

The 2016-only algorithms are helped by the fact that all the home teams won in Round 1, so they get 9/9 right off the bat, even though they had no form rating for any teams. But the gap has widened since then, suggesting there are real, significant on-field changes.

How was the explosive squiggle going at this time last year?

I would imagine better than it is now as Hawks, Eagles and Roos were only going so-so, while Freo were flying? And that all turned around second half of the year.

 

[The Swans Blog]

The 2016-only algorithms are helped by the fact that all the home teams won in Round 1, so they get 9/9 right off the bat, even though they had no form rating for any teams. But the gap has widened since then, suggesting there are real, significant on-field changes.

Undoubtedly, just have to look at Fremantle just to see how much has changed. Rule changes really shook up the league and some teams have seriously struggled to adjust, which is why I've been questioning the responsiveness of the regular Squiggle since it seems to be lagging behind, or giving too much.

 

[Final Siren]

What does the explosive flagpole look like? I'd imagine GWS at or near the top.

Correct! This is a chart for Explosive Flagpole (2016 form only, no home advantage, cares more about attack):

 

[TheFourPillars]

Wow, I'm surprised that the Premiers have had such a poor record vs Top 4 teams. I guess a lot comes down to being in good form come finals time.

Hawthorn were 3 and 1 last year that info is wrong. We beat everyone in the top 3 away

 

[Final Siren]

How was the explosive squiggle going at this time last year?

I would imagine better than it is now as Hawks, Eagles and Roos were only going so-so, while Freo were flying? And that all turned around second half of the year.

This is the only year Explosive Squiggle has been ahead of regular squiggle at Round 9 for a long time:

Correct Tips @ Round 9​

​

I realized too late I should have done this as a tip accuracy % rather than raw numbers, sorry, since the number of games changed in 2011 & 2012.

But you can see that regular squiggle is historically more reliable.

 

[Big_Birdy]

This is the only year Explosive Squiggle has been ahead of regular squiggle at Round 9 for a long time:

Correct Tips @ Round 9​

​

I realized too late I should have done this as a tip accuracy % rather than raw numbers, sorry, since the number of games changed in 2011 & 2012.

But you can see that regular squiggle is historically more reliable.

Cheers, another win for the squiggle.

 

[Final Siren]

Final Siren, would it be possible to search your archives and tell us which game, according to the normal squiggle, was the most explosive over the past 20 years? Or top 10 games that were most explosive?

Because of the way the squiggle works, those games are low-scoring affairs that basically break the algorithm. It assigns massive scores in that situation, in the same way that if a team wins 40-4, it will have a percentage of 1000%.

There are a lot of those games the further back you go, when footy used to be played in suburban grounds that turned into mud pits in the rain. 1989 has plenty: Geelong def. Melbourne 89-20, North def. Fitzroy 49-14, Essendon def. Bulldogs 28-23, Essendon def. West Coast 160-18.

 

[MIKE85]

Wow, I'm surprised that the Premiers have had such a poor record vs Top 4 teams. I guess a lot comes down to being in good form come finals time.

I'm not surprised at all. We all know it's hard to beat the best team at their home ground. Interstate sides just get more shit heaped on them about not winning away, because we do it every second week. If any of the vic sides, especially a few of the etihad specialists had to travel to the other side of the county every second week, they'd never make the 8. That alone is the reason Brisbanes 3 peat is far superior to the Hawks. In any sport around the world, teams struggle to perform at their best, away from home, against the best sides, the AFL is no different.

 

[TheFourPillars]

I'm not surprised at all. We all know it's hard to beat the best team at their home ground. Interstate sides just get more shit heaped on them about not winning away, because we do it every second week. If any of the vic sides, especially a few of the etihad specialists had to travel to the other side of the county every second week, they'd never make the 8. That alone is the reason Brisbanes 3 peat is far superior to the Hawks. In any sport around the world, teams struggle to perform at their best, away from home, against the best sides, the AFL is no different.

Hawthorn beat all their interstate opponents on their home ground