Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

[Hobbes]

No such thing - I was nervous before the game and thought the Eagles would have to play at their best (which they have not done all year) to beat Adelaide, but never anticipated the Eagles would not kick a score for 40 minutes!! The result (the win to Adelaide) was not the surprise, if was the way in which th Eagles lost that is frustrating the supporters and others.

Anyway it's an interesting year and very difficult to predict who is favourite to win the flag. Can never write off the Hawks though with their finals experience and I guess for that reason would have to include Sydney and Geelong in that. Would like to see somebody different win it though - perhaps a GWS v Adelaide GF (that will make the Vics happy) !!

GWS v Adelaide is what my ladder predictor produces - definitely the two form teams of the competition, and both with easy draws for the remainder of the minor round (that's because they've both played out the tough bit, not because their overall draw was easy). Geelong the next best, then a bunch of five teams who change places from week to week.

 

[The Swert]

GWS v Adelaide is what my ladder predictor produces - definitely the two form teams of the competition, and both with easy draws for the remainder of the minor round (that's because they've both played out the tough bit, not because their overall draw was easy). Geelong the next best, then a bunch of five teams who change places from week to week.

I'd hardly call GWS in-form having lost 2 of their last 3.

But yes, the draw could definitely play a part.

Adelaide, Bulldogs and GWS play the other top eight teams 9 times.
Geelong, Sydney, Hawthorn, West Coast plays them 10 times.
North play them 11 times.

 

[Hobbes]

I'd hardly call GWS in-form having lost 2 of their last 3.

But yes, the draw could definitely play a part.

Adelaide, Bulldogs and GWS play the other top eight teams 9 times.
Geelong, Sydney, Hawthorn, West Coast plays them 10 times.
North play them 11 times.

GWS played Adelaide in Adelaide and Geelong at Skilled. Most teams are going 0/2 from that.

 

[krisholio14]

GWS played Adelaide in Adelaide and Geelong at Skilled. Most teams are going 0/2 from that.

They haven't had a stinker of a game all year, the Giants. Obviously they pissed the Melbourne game against the wall and in such an even season that could prove very costly. In their other three losses they have been within a goal or two late in each game.

 

[Pugz89]

They haven't had a stinker of a game all year, the Giants. Obviously they pissed the Melbourne game against the wall and in such an even season that could prove very costly. In their other three losses they have been within a goal or two late in each game.

Ditto can be said for the Dogs. 25pts was biggest loss, to GWS @ Spotless where they spanked Hawks by 70 and most other teams by 35+.

 

[Hearts to hearts]

Not only eclipsed on the night, now North has disappeared behind the Cats on the squiggle.

 

[radiojake]

Not only eclipsed on the night, now North has disappeared behind the Cats on the squiggle.

last week was opposite - geelong were hiding behind north

 

[ok.crows]

They haven't had a stinker of a game all year, the Giants. Obviously they pissed the Melbourne game against the wall and in such an even season that could prove very costly. In their other three losses they have been within a goal or two late in each game.

The Crows likewise have had only one game all year which wasn't really competitive (final result was a loss by more than a goal or two), and even in that one down game they were just 2 points down with about 12 minutes to go.

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

They haven't had a stinker of a game all year, the Giants. Obviously they pissed the Melbourne game against the wall and in such an even season that could prove very costly. In their other three losses they have been within a goal or two late in each game.

They weren't great against Adelaide. They were 40+ points down at 3/4 time. Some goals in the final quarter got the margin down to 3 goals, before the Crows steadied and got the final margin back out to about 4 goals.

So despite only losing by 4 goals, they weren't really in it for most of the game.

 

[happy_knackers]

The Crows likewise have had only one game all year which wasn't really competitive (final result was a loss by more than a goal or two), and even in that one down game they were just 2 points down with about 12 minutes to go.

That probably had more to do with the fact that the cats couldn't hit the side of a barn in that game. Were lucky to even be that close.

 

[ok.crows]

That probably had more to do with the fact that the cats couldn't hit the side of a barn in that game. Were lucky to even be that close.

True ... but we were that close. The point is that Adelaide did have one downer game against another top 8 side in Geelong ... but so too did GWS have one downer game against another top 8 side in Adelaide. Unlike GWS the Crows have not yet lost a game against a bottom 10 side. The two sides are on the same ladder points at this juncture.

 

[The Swert]

I think every team in the top 7 could make an argument about how they are 'in form', going 'under the radar' or have 'draw affected results'.

As the squiggle says, at this stage they all have roughly equal chance of finishing top four.

It will all come down to the matches between the top teams which act as 8-point matches. Games like North vs Hawthorn, Geelong vs Bulldogs this week will decide the top 4.

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

True ... but we were that close. The point is that Adelaide did have one downer game against another top 8 side in Geelong ... but so too did GWS have one downer game against another top 8 side in Adelaide. Unlike GWS the Crows have not yet lost a game against a bottom 10 side. The two sides are on the same ladder points at this juncture.

The Crows haven't actually played that many games against bottom 10 sides yet! The only ones we've played are Freo, Richmond, GC and the Saints. The rest of our games have been teams ranked 1-9.

 

[ok.crows]

The Crows haven't actually played that many games against bottom 10 sides yet! The only ones we've played are Freo, Richmond, GC and the Saints. The rest of our games have been teams ranked 1-9.

GWS have played only 5 games against bottom 10 sides. Unlike the Crows GWS stuffed one of those up. Like the Crows GWS also stuffed up one game against a top 8 side ... but for GWS it happened to be against Adelaide.

 

[Tristan34]

True ... but we were that close. The point is that Adelaide did have one downer game against another top 8 side in Geelong ... but so too did GWS have one downer game against another top 8 side in Adelaide. Unlike GWS the Crows have not yet lost a game against a bottom 10 side. The two sides are on the same ladder points at this juncture.

I don't think it was a downer to best honest, you got outplayed in that game.

 

[HawkintheTuarts]

I think every team in the top 7 could make an argument about how they are 'in form', going 'under the radar' or have 'draw affected results'.

As the squiggle says, at this stage they all have roughly equal chance of finishing top four.

It will all come down to the matches between the top teams which act as 8-point matches. Games like North vs Hawthorn, Geelong vs Bulldogs this week will decide the top 4.

I'd say top 8, not 7. It's been settled for a while and for all their faults and statistical anomalies rating them higher than they should be, West Coast are a finals team. Definitely more so that Port or Richmond and teams like Carlton and Melbourne who win count doesn't reflect their chances of finals.

 

[ok.crows]

I don't think it was a downer to best honest, you got outplayed in that game.

Yes they did get outplayed ... that is my point ... the Crows were definitely off that game. Against North in round 1 they made a selection error (omitted Hartigan, picked Van Berlo) and it was their first game with a new coach and gameplan. They were a bit off, but it was understandable. Against Hawks and Bulldogs the Crows were simply unlucky. Rub of the green stuff ... the Crows could easily have won both of those games.

But yes, against Geelong the Crows really did not perform well at all. Perhaps a mental block or something, I guess you can't expect any team to play to their capability every single game.

The Crows had a definite downer game against Geelong compared to every other game they have played this year.

{Edit}: BTW, did Geelong get outplayed by Carlton and Collingwood, or did they just have downer games against those opponents in your opinion?

 

[krisholio14]

They weren't great against Adelaide. They were 40+ points down at 3/4 time. Some goals in the final quarter got the margin down to 3 goals, before the Crows steadied and got the final margin back out to about 4 goals.

So despite only losing by 4 goals, they weren't really in it for most of the game.

They had a decent sniff though. Wasn't like us against Carlton or Collingwood where we got close, but never really had enough momentum to win at any stage.

That probably had more to do with the fact that the cats couldn't hit the side of a barn in that game. Were lucky to even be that close.

That's what good sides do though. They weren't at their best, but they did enough to have a genuine chance for most of the game.

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

They had a decent sniff though. Wasn't like us against Carlton or Collingwood where we got close, but never really had enough momentum to win at any stage.

It wasn't that close. They were 46 points down at 3/4 time. In order to win GWS would have had to score as many goals in the last quarter as they did for the entire game and keep the Crows goal-less.

The Crows kicked 1 goal to 5 in the last quarter and still won by 22. The closest GWS got was 16 points down at that was at the 26 minute mark of the last quarter.

In comparison, Geelong lost to Collingwood by 24 points, but were only 27 points down at 3/4 time and just 21 points down 1 minute into the last quarter. Against Carlton Geelong lost by only 19 points and was 22 points down at 3/4 time.

 

[Brentmeister]

I don't think it was a downer to best honest, you got outplayed in that game.

Crows were awful that night. Worst we've played all year by a long way.

 

[ok.crows]

Crows were awful that night. Worst we've played all year by a long way.

Similar in many respects to Geelong's performances against Collingwood and Carlton ... in both cases not their typical form by any stretch of the imagination.

 

[LeverPuller]

Final Siren
Will you be doing a women's squiggle?

 

[cryptor]

Final Siren
Will you be doing a women's squiggle?

Women don't have squiggles silly! Read a book!

 

[GreyCrow]

Women love squiggles

 

[swiftdog]

Final Siren
Will you be doing a women's squiggle?

How would a squiggle even begin?

My assumption would be every team starts at 50 attack and defence. Games between Vic sides to be predicted as a draw and inter-state games would be predicted to go in favour of the home team by 2 goals?