Strategy Trade and List management (Add your rumour to the simmering stew that is the post season. Edition.)

[LittleG]

If we get rid of many, can we chase someone like Gaff ???

We don't need to get rid of them to chase Gaff, it's still a good idea to chase him regardless.

 

[TedDougChris]

We don't need to get rid of them to chase Gaff, it's still a good idea to chase him regardless.

Do we have cap space ??

 

[LittleG]

Do we have cap space ??

We have never paid 100% of the cap, so we have lots of space.

 

[Spectre]

Do we have cap space ??

Saving it up for Kelly next year.

 

[TedDougChris]

We have never paid 100% of the cap, so we have lots of space.

Thought we had some left from our Hurley plan a few years back...

 

[TedDougChris]

Saving it up for Kelly next year.

Why not both ??? (Insert appropriate jpg here)

 

[BRWB]

Fringe / older player likely values in trade assets:
Campbell - negligible
Roberts - 4th round pick upgrade
Collins - 3rd round pick upgrade BUT I would keep him for another year.
Lynch - negligible
Morris (retire) - retired
Mullenger-McHugh - negligible
R Smith - negligible
Honeychurch - 4th round pick upgrade
C Smith - maybe a late 3rd rounder
Dickson - negligible
Picken (stay if he's not retiring) - negligible but should be retained.
Webb - 4th round upgrade

So, all those players out and we might get a 3rd rounder and upgrade a fourth rounder a few positions.


I am sure a clean out is necessary but we need to stomach the fact the players we are going to get are going to be highly speculative and unlikely to be as good as those we are letting go.

We really need to bring in big name players from other clubs. Overpay in salary if required, just get it done. Free Agents only but let's be a renovator rather than a rebuilder.

I reckon most od those guys are pretty worthless in trade terms.

I like what you and Wizard are suggesting.

Get say 5 or 6 top 50 players including West and Khamis using next year's picks.

Get three or four FA or low trade value value mature players.

For example, Tiges and Port need a backup ruck. Trade Campbell for Lloyd/Neade. Get Atley via FA. Have a massive crack at Puopolo. Maybe look at Miles. Have a crack at N Jetta or McDonald.

Id also be open to trading one of our hard butchers (eg Dunkley/Dahl) for a good player as well.

 

[cecil]

I reckon most od those guys are pretty worthless in trade terms.

I like what you and Wizard are suggesting.

Get say 5 or 6 top 50 players including West and Khamis using next year's picks.

Get three or four FA or low trade value value mature players.

For example, Tiges and Port need a backup ruck. Trade Campbell for Lloyd/Neade. Get Atley via FA. Have a massive crack at Puopolo. Maybe look at Miles. Have a crack at N Jetta or McDonald.

Id also be open to trading one of our hard butchers (eg Dunkley/Dahl) for a good player as well.

Few clubs will be willing to trade out of this years draft for next years I would say.

Don't think we could get Llyod or Neade for Campbell either. Webb, Jong and maybe Roberts are the only few I think could net us a top 60 pick. I would keep Roberts though, definitely ahead of Collins.

In saying that, of the out of contract guys who we want to keep, Roughead, Dahl, Wallis and Biggs have all be down on form and we could sign them for lesser amounts. Gowers and Cordy are about the only two who may deserve more, and it wouldn't be a lot more you'd think.

Puopolo would probably be getable. 2 years deal on average money would probably be enough for him to come over with Hawthorn probably looking at culling a few more older players.

Miles would take a late pick, same with Neade. So definitely could happen.

I would say we could only get one of Gaff, Jetta and McDonald though, as they'd all need over 500k. In Gaff's case probably closer to 800k, but in my mind he'd be worth it. He's consistently good, and the only other mid we have who is is Macrae. Libba and Wallis inside, Macrae and Gaff as hybrids, with Dahl and Bont rotating. That SHOULD be a well performing midfield. Especially if Suckling stays on and Dale improves so they can join Hunter on the outside. No more need for Jong and Honeychurch.

 

[LittleG]

I reckon most od those guys are pretty worthless in trade terms.

I like what you and Wizard are suggesting.

Get say 5 or 6 top 50 players including West and Khamis using next year's picks.

Get three or four FA or low trade value value mature players.

For example, Tiges and Port need a backup ruck. Trade Campbell for Lloyd/Neade. Get Atley via FA. Have a massive crack at Puopolo. Maybe look at Miles. Have a crack at N Jetta or McDonald.

Id also be open to trading one of our hard butchers (eg Dunkley/Dahl) for a good player as well.

I am wary of N Jetta. I have been a fan but he appears cooked this year. He has lost his pace and without that, he is not able to break clear and dispose cleanly. His disposal under pressure isn't great.

I don't think Campbell has any currency, particularly since this draft has 3-4 decent looking rucks in it. I would potentially looking at trading him for free or even a pick down grade.


We really need to open up list spots and bidding late picks on others academy prospects or our own would be a good idea. An example of what I mean is this:
Say the Hawks have an academy prospect they hope to rookie but have already used all their draft picks, we can make a late bid they can't actually match. I suspect there will be a few worthwhile players we could get late draft in that sort of scenario.

 

[Bemoreboyddog]

So Suckling could move to NFL NEXT year. If not, keep. Has experience. Isn’t terrible.

Dahlhaus. I’d let him go. That’s just me. I’ve had this argument on here before, not looking for another one.

C. Smith. It’s time to go. Too many injuries, his ceiling isn’t as high as it once was and he can’t hit it anywhere near enough. Thanks for everything Clay.

Campbell. Interesting one IMO. Can come into AFL side and not get absolutely demolished but will never be a major contributor. If we can get something decent for Roughead, I’d keep him. If we can’t, Campbell goes. Roughead needs to be on a reduced deal from here on out with English being the future.

Roberts. Can be serviceable. With Morris leaving, I’m ok if Sid stays, but again, wouldn’t be a huge deal.

Webb. Trade. Someone, somewhere, can use him. We don’t know how to.

Honeychurch. I’d be fine letting him go. Don’t think he’ll get any better than he is which isn’t that great.

Roughead. I just don’t see where his long term future is with Boyd, English and Trengove all signed up long term. Trade if possible.

Dickson. I’d keep him. Shouldn’t be too expensive, experienced. Dead eye. One of our only natural forwards. Worth more to us than anyone else.

Collins. I’d keep. Would be on bugger all. One year deal.

Lynch. See ya mate. Haven’t shown enough. There’s something there but I’m not sure it’s enough.

R. Smith. Hard to get in with Wood, done two ACL’s and drafting khamis who can play a similar role. Bye Roarke.


Mullenger -McHugh. I see nothing. Gone.

Dahl and Roughead would have some value, for the rest we won’t get much. Fair few changes. Maybe we could use some 2019 picks to get into the second round of the draft.

 

[_M_16_]

We have got to get rid of a number of our talls far to many on list. So TC, Collins are certain to be delisted. I was hoping Fletcher Roberts was on the list. Roughead ?

Not including rookies Clay Smith delist, Dickson retire, Dale Morris retire, Picken retire, Honeychurch delist.

That is 7 to go if we keep Roughead and maybe Fergus Greene goes as well that would make 8. We then recruit /trade for midfielders inside and out with speed and a quick small forward and hope our current talls develop.

Why the hell would Greene go? Done very well at VFL level and only his second season. Some people are too quick to move on people for nothing.

And if we make that many changes in the offseason we are stuffed. Not enough trades to bring in heaps of kids, or trade currency to make deals for other players. Would have to be a bunch of good mature players available as free agents, even then most would be just gap fills at the back end of their careers

This will be a short and slow rebuild. Should only really be turning over 5-6 a year max, the way its going is people are suggesting we make like 10 changes in the offseason. Way too big a turn over and will likely hurt the team more because you will likely be left picking up scraps at the end of trade period, or scraps of discarded players from other teams to fill the last 3-5 spots we have open if we make that many changes, or filling up with late picks in the draft

 

[dergert]

How we went into this year with a lack of midfield depth is shocking list management

 

[goodcop badcop]

Should only really be turning over 5-6 a year max, the way its going is people are suggesting we make like 10 changes in the offseason. Way too big a turn over and will likely hurt the team more

I've never agreed with this, we did this in the Eade years and it hurt us.

I'm in favour of the Hawthorn model. They had a very young team in 08 (similar to us), yet were ruthless. They made 45 list changes after the 08 premiership win in a 4 year period.

End of 2008
= 12 players
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Hawthorn_Football_Club_season

End of 2009
= 11 players
* traded in Burgoyne, Gibson
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Hawthorn_Football_Club_season

End of 2010
= 12 players
* traded in Hale, Cheney
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Hawthorn_Football_Club_season

End of 2011
= 10 players
* traded in Gunston
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Hawthorn_Football_Club_season

Guess what happened after that? They made a grand final and won 3 premierships.

 

[VogonProsthetnic]

Any team that loses two guys as good as Picken and Libba will struggle. Look at how Melbourne are going without Viney or Carlton without Murphy.

Our problem in contests is that we lack size and strength- probably as we have so many 18-21 year olds. The damage was done due to our crap drafting 2008-2012, hardly anyone we drafted back then ( who should be our mature core) are playing for us anymore.

So we don't have any Martin,mCotchin,mBoak, Shuey, Kennedy, Hanneberry, Pendlebury, Selwood, Danger, Sloane, Fyfe etc... Whose fault is that?

Ps the one guy we did actually draft Callan Ward- sold out to the orange heroes- but that's a whole other story.

 

[Dogsman16]

Any team that loses two guys as good as Picken and Libba will struggle. Look at how Melbourne are going without Viney or Carlton without Murphy.

Our problem in contests is that we lack size and strength- probably as we have so many 18-21 year olds. The damage was done due to our crap drafting 2008-2012, hardly anyone we drafted back then ( who should be our mature core) are playing for us anymore.

So we don't have any Martin,mCotchin,mBoak, Shuey, Kennedy, Hanneberry, Pendlebury, Selwood, Danger, Sloane, Fyfe etc... Whose fault is that?

Ps the one guy we did actually draft Callan Ward- sold out to the orange heroes- but that's a whole other story.

Did some research on this. 16th in contested possessions and 13th in clearances. I also see a certain port Adelaide young midfielder whose out of contract and obtainable. We should be throwing a first at him, to repair the very thing was the key fundamental to or premiership. A deep midfield that controlled possession and territory across the park!!

 

[DelRe]

How we went into this year with a lack of midfield depth is shocking list management

Interesting question. That list management got us Naughton which has served us well so far. If we hadn’t drafted him I suspect we’d be lamenting the quality of our talls given the impending retirement of Morris and Collins and Roberts not coming on as we’d like.

You can’t always solve every problem in one draft.

 

[dogwatch]

So Suckling could move to NFL NEXT year. If not, keep. Has experience. Isn’t terrible.

Dahlhaus. I’d let him go. That’s just me. I’ve had this argument on here before, not looking for another one.

C. Smith. It’s time to go. Too many injuries, his ceiling isn’t as high as it once was and he can’t hit it anywhere near enough. Thanks for everything Clay.

Campbell. Interesting one IMO. Can come into AFL side and not get absolutely demolished but will never be a major contributor. If we can get something decent for Roughead, I’d keep him. If we can’t, Campbell goes. Roughead needs to be on a reduced deal from here on out with English being the future.

Roberts. Can be serviceable. With Morris leaving, I’m ok if Sid stays, but again, wouldn’t be a huge deal.

Webb. Trade. Someone, somewhere, can use him. We don’t know how to.

Honeychurch. I’d be fine letting him go. Don’t think he’ll get any better than he is which isn’t that great.

Roughead. I just don’t see where his long term future is with Boyd, English and Trengove all signed up long term. Trade if possible.

Dickson. I’d keep him. Shouldn’t be too expensive, experienced. Dead eye. One of our only natural forwards. Worth more to us than anyone else.

Collins. I’d keep. Would be on bugger all. One year deal.

Lynch. See ya mate. Haven’t shown enough. There’s something there but I’m not sure it’s enough.

R. Smith. Hard to get in with Wood, done two ACL’s and drafting khamis who can play a similar role. Bye Roarke.


Mullenger -McHugh. I see nothing. Gone.

Dahl and Roughead would have some value, for the rest we won’t get much. Fair few changes. Maybe we could use some 2019 picks to get into the second round of the draft.

That's a reasonable assessment of each player but you can end up sub-optimising if you don't look at our whole-of-list needs. One of the biggest needs is clearly to bring in some experience and retain the experience we already have. Otherwise we can end up in permanent leaderless churn at the bottom of the ladder like Melbourne did.

In the scenario you painted we'd lose Roughead, Dahlhaus and Suckling who are three of our only 8 players with 100 games experience. You didn't mention Morris and Picken but you'd have to assume there's an 80% chance at least one will retire and at least a 50% chance that both will. If those five went that's 900 games experience out the door. So we end up way younger AGAIN and hence further adrift.

The only way around that would be to bring in about 6-7 seasoned players but where will we find that many players with an average of at least 100 games experience? And in a supposedly loaded draft year, would that make sense anyway?

 

[DelRe]

That's a reasonable assessment of each player but you can end up sub-optimising if you don't look at our whole-of-list needs. One of the biggest needs is clearly to bring in some experience and retain the experience we already have. Otherwise we can end up in permanent leaderless churn at the bottom of the ladder like Melbourne did.

In the scenario you painted we'd lose Roughead, Dahlhaus and Suckling who are three of our only 8 players with 100 games experience. You didn't mention Morris and Picken but you'd have to assume there's an 80% chance at least one will retire and at least a 50% chance that both will. If those five went that's 900 games experience out the door. So we end up way younger AGAIN and hence further adrift.

The only way around that would be to bring in about 6-7 seasoned players but where will we find that many players with an average of at least 100 games experience? And in a supposedly loaded draft year, would that make sense anyway?

In a way, given where the list is at, it’s almost asking do you go down the Giants path or the Suns path. I can see an argument for saying actually keeping the picks and double down on getting more kids (provided you get the picks right!)

 

[dogwatch]

In a way, given where the list is at, it’s almost asking do you go down the Giants path or the Suns path. I can see an argument for saying actually keeping the picks and double down on getting more kids (provided you get the picks right!)

With a supposedly high quality draft this year that approach is certainly tempting, but at this stage we don't have a strong enough hand of high draft picks and it's hard to see how we could trade into some high picks unless we offered up some well-regarded players like Dunkley, Adams or Daniel (examples only).

So perhaps we should look for the middle path where we snare 3-4 good juniors and bring in at least 3 handy players with 50-150 games experience each.

Some years we have a fairly quiet trade/draft period but this one is shaping up as more critical to our future than most. In that context the new and untried list management team at VUWO just heightens the risk.

 

[DelRe]

With a supposedly high quality draft this year that approach is certainly tempting, but at this stage we don't have a strong enough hand of high draft picks and it's hard to see how we could trade into some high picks unless we offered up some well-regarded players like Dunkley, Adams or Daniel (examples only).

So perhaps we should look for the middle path where we snare 3-4 good juniors and bring in at least 3 handy players with 50-150 games experience each.

Some years we have a fairly quiet trade/draft period but this one is shaping up as more critical to our future than most. In that context the new and untried list management team at VUWO just heightens the risk.

You’re assuming we don’t get a high pick this year ...

If we don’t have the assets to trade into high picks why is it those assets are valuable enough to get good quality 50-150 gamers?

 

[Pugz89]

With a supposedly high quality draft this year that approach is certainly tempting, but at this stage we don't have a strong enough hand of high draft picks and it's hard to see how we could trade into some high picks unless we offered up some well-regarded players like Dunkley, Adams or Daniel (examples only).

So perhaps we should look for the middle path where we snare 3-4 good juniors and bring in at least 3 handy players with 50-150 games experience each.

Some years we have a fairly quiet trade/draft period but this one is shaping up as more critical to our future than most. In that context the new and untried list management team at VUWO just heightens the risk.

Is there preference as to the type of experienced players we want? Spread across the ground or focus on specific areas? I would be going hard at Fasolo/Lynch (Adelaide) for the forward line and also Aaron Hall who has notched up 100 games, out of contract this year and could slot in nicely and offer us some pace then suss out the state leagues to see what is around.

 

[dogwatch]

You’re assuming we don’t get a high pick this year ...

If we don’t have the assets to trade into high picks why is it those assets are valuable enough to get good quality 50-150 gamers?

No I'm assuming we DO get a high pick, but that's only one player. Not a strong hand in my book. The wraps on Rhylee West are good so if we can get him as well as someone with say pick #5 then that's two good young 'uns.

I deliberately didn't say HOW we'd get the 50-150 gamers because there are going to be about 16,542 posts on that subject (we've already seen quite a few) but obviously FA is the best way to pick up experienced players with a low initial outlay. There will be other ways too, as I'm sure we'll discover in this thread!

 

[fronkalicious]

Did some research on this. 16th in contested possessions and 13th in clearances. I also see a certain port Adelaide young midfielder whose out of contract and obtainable. We should be throwing a first at him, to repair the very thing was the key fundamental to or premiership. A deep midfield that controlled possession and territory across the park!!

Would help if we played one of the top 5 midfielders in the league......in the midfield, and not at CHF.

I do wonder whether Bonti will eventually crack it at not being played as a mid. The drink just needs to let him loose again and let the kid win a Brownlow.

 

[webbo]

Would help if we played one of the top 5 midfielders in the league......in the midfield, and not at CHF.

I do wonder whether Bonti will eventually crack it at not being played as a mid. The drink just needs to let him loose again and let the kid win a Brownlow.

I'm mixed about this. If he is our best mid and our best forward, what do we do? We clearly have more depth in the midfield than the forward line, but agree that we are somewhat robbing Peter to pay Paul. Hopefully Boyd's inclusion and burgeoning form can mean that Bont is freer to play more midfield minutes (both for the bulldogs and my supercoach scores).

 

[Norm De Guerre]

The idea that we will turn over our list with as many as 10 list changes is fanciful.