Analysis 2018 List Management discussion Part 1 (continued in Part 2 - see OP for link)

[SkyhorseTamer]

I feel we are covered well for kpd when I look at other lists. Don't care if one of the king boys is a good defender...Don't want to spend a good pick on him.

When we say best available they are marginal calls at best. History proves this.

For list balance and gameday structure mid or hff first. Rankin or a mid. If luko is exceptional, then I accept that decision. If the def king is exceptional....Don't want.

History has sfa to do with whether the king boy is best available or not. He’s never been drafted before....

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Hey man I want Rankine.

I'm just annoyed with arguments that we don't need tall forwards. On exposed form our forward line is in worse nick than our midfield.

Cripps, Dow, SPS, Kennedy and Fisher have shown they will be good AFL players and are young.

Up forward only Curnow has shown anything. Jury's out on McKay till the end of the season.

Rankine is a mid/ HFF that kicks goals. He ticks both bees for me.

I'm confused now. What exactly has Kennedy shown? Swap him with LOB at least. Then you say McKay hasn't shown anything. LOL McKay has shown more than Dow and Kennedy combined in only 4 games...

Our forward line is in worse nick, but not because of the lack of talls. We have shit medium and small forwards minus Pickett who is out for a while now.

That's why we need to bring in as many quality mids as we can. That way we can afford to rotate Rankine and Cripps in our forward line.

If I can list more (or approx equal amount of) under 22 kpf than mids on our list we are in MASSIVE trouble for years to come mate.

 

[Malifice]

I'm confused now. What exactly has Kennedy shown? Swap him with LOB at least. Then you say McKay hasn't shown anything. LOL McKay has shown more than Dow and Kennedy combined in only 4 games...

Our forward line is in worse nick, but not because of the lack of talls. We have shit medium and small forwards minus Pickett who is out for a while now.

That's why we need to bring in as many quality mids as we can. That way we can afford to rotate Rankine and Cripps in our forward line.

Kennedy has shown enough in his time at GWS and with us for me to see he's going to make it as a very good player.

He's been badly hampered by injury over the preseason and during the season remember. Shoulder injuries mean no bench press, lat pull downs or upper body and arm workouts at all. You lose a ton of size and strength with a shoulder and they take ages to get better.

That's why his quads look enormous compared to his upper body.

He was clearly hampered by injury last week too.

He's shown a ton more than McKay has (caveat being talls take more time).

Jury is out on McKay. He got some cheapies 2 weeks back. His leading patterns were poor and he struggled to hold his marks (his kicking was great though). He didn't do a whole lot last week, and hasn't set the world on fire in the VFL either.

Not saying he won't make it. Just saying he's going to need more time before we know for sure.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

Well, Rowe and ASOS are close to the end. When we took Macreadie, SOS thought he was just too good to pass on, and at that point there probably wasn't a person in the world who thought Jones would again become a best 22 player. The only reason he was still on the list was his contract. Since then, we've only taken TDK who is seen as a likely ruck (unless you count O'Shea as a tall, and I still can't get my head around that pick).

I think we've often selected teams that are too tall, and our midfield is obviously lacking depth, but I don't think we're really too tall heavy as a list.

TBF, I still don't, but he seems to suit a purpose at present rightly or wrongly, not that I agree with it. I wouldn't be picking him at all, but I'm a nobody with no say.

 

[Malifice]

TBF, I still don't, but he seems to suit a purpose at present rightly or wrongly, not that I agree with it. I wouldn't be picking him at all, but I'm a nobody with no say.

Jones is brilliant as a loose man in defence. He reads the play well, covers ground fast and provides good intercept with a huge leap.

I had his papers stamped last year but he was clearly in our bests in 9/10 games late last year. I found myself applauding him like mad on multiple occasions in games last year.

He's had a shaky start to the season as have all our defenders. He's been better the last few weeks barring a few blunders (and he's not alone there - Plowman and even Simpson have made some shockers in recent weeks).

He's the penultimate confidence player. When were up and about and the backline settles a bit, he'll be back to the dominant form we saw late last year.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

Jones is brilliant as a loose man in defence. He reads the play well, covers ground fast and provides good intercept with a huge leap.

I had his papers stamped last year but he was clearly in our bests in 9/10 games late last year. I found myself applauding him like mad on multiple occasions in games last year.

He's had a shaky start to the season as have all our defenders. He's been better the last few weeks barring a few blunders (and he's not alone there - Plowman and even Simpson have made some shockers in recent weeks).

He's the penultimate confidence player. When were up and about and the backline settles a bit, he'll be back to the dominant form we saw late last year.

I would absolutely be trying to trade him at the end of the season.

 

[Malifice]

I would absolutely be trying to trade him at the end of the season.

No, we back our coaches to earn their money and get him playing the way he was last year.

 

[BlueRenaissance]

History has sfa to do with whether the king boy is best available or not. He’s never been drafted before....

That's not my point Skyhorse.

My point in a nutshell is that if at the end of the year, Rankine was rated second best player overall at 9.2/10 and King rated best at 9.4/10; just take the need and don't further unbalance our list. Why? Because when I look back at history the number 1 vs the number 2 pick pick which is in effect best available versus second best available in theory shows up the following:

1. Boyd vs 2. Kelly
1. Mcartin vs 2. Petracca
1. Weitering vs 2. Schache
1. Mcgrath vs 2. Taranto

Not much in it so pick who we need. And then as an aside to that, if King (defender) is one, overlook the ****er as we don't need him.

 

[HARKER]

That's not my point Skyhorse.

My point in a nutshell is that if at the end of the year, Rankine was rated second best player overall at 9.2/10 and King rated best at 9.4/10; just take the need and don't further unbalance our list. Why? Because when I look back at history the number 1 vs the number 2 pick pick which is in effect best available versus second best available in theory shows up the following:

1. Boyd vs 2. Kelly
1. Mcartin vs 2. Petracca
1. Weitering vs 2. Schache
1. Mcgrath vs 2. Taranto

Not much in it so pick who we need. And then as an aside to that, if King (defender) is one, overlook the ****** as we don't need him.

I'd side with this argument in most cases, but there are some other things to take into consideration.
Let's just for the sake of the argument use the Lukosius vs Rankine scenario, given Max King is down.

1. KP Forward vs mid.
So we need mids more than we need forwards given we have CCurnow, McKay, possibly Weitering and then Kerr & TDK?
Fine, but the majority are still largely unproven and Lukosius isn't a stay at home forward. I know, none are, but also not many have the capacity to use the ground the way he can at his height. The right key forward is possibly the toughest player to get right via the draft process, as one can argue that the likes of Boyd, Schache, Patton and McCartin have all be 'relative' failures and if one presents that has all the right traits for a modern forward, it's may be just a little tough to ignore.

2. Character
Would you sooner Nick Riewoldt or Harvey Bennell? Now, that's obviously not meant in any way to be a slight on Rankine, but given that the crude comparisons have popped up elsewhere, let's run with them. It's something we can't gauge from here, but obviously a key piece in the drafting process.
Brayshaw wasn't the second best talent in the land last year, but was the right long-term player for Fremantle, given his character profile.

3. Trade / FA
Not all required players are going to come out of the draft and if SOS has the sound understanding he'll acquire the mids (albeit, mature mids) he wants via other means, it may just suit us better. Then again they may not even be quite so mature if he targets the inured Setterfield, or the like.

Generally speaking and I have put this forward many times before; Somehow the player you deem to be the best player available with your early picks, just happens to be the type you want. That's no quirk but just he way a recruiter is swayed into considering the bigger picture and sometimes also, it just doesn't work out the way you wanted it to.

 

[Arr0w]

That's not my point Skyhorse.

My point in a nutshell is that if at the end of the year, Rankine was rated second best player overall at 9.2/10 and King rated best at 9.4/10; just take the need and don't further unbalance our list. Why? Because when I look back at history the number 1 vs the number 2 pick pick which is in effect best available versus second best available in theory shows up the following:

1. Boyd vs 2. Kelly
1. Mcartin vs 2. Petracca
1. Weitering vs 2. Schache
1. Mcgrath vs 2. Taranto

Not much in it so pick who we need. And then as an aside to that, if King (defender) is one, overlook the ****** as we don't need him.

And i rate B King (Defender) a better forward than his brother.

Let's not pidgeon hole these kids on the back of some limited comments on BF

 

[Iamcarlton]

I don't think Macreadie or JGM's development has been harmed to this point. HMac is tracking well and, IMO, JGM was a dud pick.

I also don't count Plowman, O'Shea, SOS, Schumacher, Williamson and Marchbank as KPDs, for the record. Some are running types, some are marking types, but they are all medium forwards/backs (though I can see Schumacher and SOS moving into midfield).

Medium forwards/backs run linkup tackle pressure if they cant do that enough they are a tall or KPP . Plowman JSOS Oshea add none of that they are not runners so may as well be classified as key position players because they add very little at ground level .
Marchbank is a KPP that because of playing 4 talls in defence gets the loose defender intercept role .

 

[Metalcrusher]

Didn't Max do a knee?

 

[HARKER]

And i rate B King (Defender) a better forward than his brother.

Let's not pidgeon hole these kids on the back of some limited comments on BF

Wonder how it came about that BB King drew the short straw.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Wonder how it came about that BB King drew the short straw.

more versatile than Max I believe.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Kennedy has shown enough in his time at GWS and with us for me to see he's going to make it as a very good player.

He's been badly hampered by injury over the preseason and during the season remember. Shoulder injuries mean no bench press, lat pull downs or upper body and arm workouts at all. You lose a ton of size and strength with a shoulder and they take ages to get better.

That's why his quads look enormous compared to his upper body.

He was clearly hampered by injury last week too.

He's shown a ton more than McKay has (caveat being talls take more time).

Jury is out on McKay. He got some cheapies 2 weeks back. His leading patterns were poor and he struggled to hold his marks (his kicking was great though). He didn't do a whole lot last week, and hasn't set the world on fire in the VFL either.

Not saying he won't make it. Just saying he's going to need more time before we know for sure.

Kennedy played to a different structure at GWS with FAR more midfield support.

McKay otoh has had to deal with VERY limited opportunities and then the delivery has been terrible into our f50.

Like I said and will keep saying. If we have approx the same amount of under 22 kpfs as mids on our list we are in massive trouble.

 

[Iamcarlton]

And i rate B King (Defender) a better forward than his brother.

Let's not pidgeon hole these kids on the back of some limited comments on BF

The draft is a crapshoot mate it amuses me even when i hear recruiters and so called experts talk about best available .
These are 17+18 year old kids lots of talented kids many of them that have an enormous amount of growing and maturing to do .
That can quite easily see those underdeveloped kids go flying past the more fancied kids of the time in future years . The draft is just the beginning .
How anyone can be so definitive as you are regarding best available and the draft is a little perplexing tbh .

 

[BlueRenaissance]

And i rate B King (Defender) a better forward than his brother.

Let's not pidgeon hole these kids on the back of some limited comments on BF

Out of interest, how many games has he played fwd this season?

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

I don't think this means much in the argument about recruiting more tall forwards.

The main reason Hawthorn's forward line was amazing over their premiership years were their smaller forwards like Rioli, Poppy & Breust applying defensive pressure and impacting the scoreboard...which continued to be crucial to the Bulldogs and Richmond's success.

Roughead is a genuine KPF but Gunston was more third tall type and is quite athletic.

They did play the extra ruckman in Hale, but the game has changed since then. Notice Hawthorn and Clarko don't play 2 ruckmen anymore.

I agree but they are all natural goal kickers which is the most important thing. ATM the only natural goal kicker we have who you could call even close to sure thing of making it is Curnow. (Wright and Cas will be on their last legs by the time we contend and have never been weekly contributors) I think that is just as big of a problem as our midfield.

Also trends change.
If Geelong or Richmond win it this year than you can be a middle of the road side and top up and win.
If Adelaide win than you can play four tall forwards.
If GWS win you can play a very tall side with gun forwards.
If Sydney win you can have a one paced midfield and a one dimensional forward line.

 

[GapInIkonPark]

Heaps. I punched out a list a few weeks back.

I wouldn't bother with Wallis though.


Scrimshaw would be the one I would go for out of those names, as I suspect he would be valued the least right now. That being said, they seem to be more interested in getting his attacking game going these days (though he's injured at the moment).

If that happens, none of those names would come cheaply except Perryman, who is a Docherty clone, not a midfielder.

I remember SOS added Scrimshaw in almost as an afterthought at the end of a pre-draft discussion.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

That's not my point Skyhorse.

My point in a nutshell is that if at the end of the year, Rankine was rated second best player overall at 9.2/10 and King rated best at 9.4/10; just take the need and don't further unbalance our list. Why? Because when I look back at history the number 1 vs the number 2 pick pick which is in effect best available versus second best available in theory shows up the following:

1. Boyd vs 2. Kelly
1. Mcartin vs 2. Petracca
1. Weitering vs 2. Schache
1. Mcgrath vs 2. Taranto

Not much in it so pick who we need. And then as an aside to that, if King (defender) is one, overlook the ****** as we don't need him.

Yeh but if you take best available and get it right than you get the best player. If you don't trust the recruiter than fair enough but if you do you would always keep 1.

 

[GapInIkonPark]

Since we started talking about our surplus of talls in October, the media have caught on and now their bashing not only ourselves but The Dogs also.
It's all getting a little tiresome, but I do wonder what the logic was in to keep adding these talls. What fits for me is that Weitering was slated to be a forward, but now the brakes have come upon that notion and we seem to have more tall backs than we can possibly utilise to maximum effect.

I'm happy for the club to persist with Weitering forward and to nurture Macreadie into the key back we'll need in years to come.
To now wave the white flag and leave Weitering back, whilst re-training Macreadie to become something else, could be a problem for Macreadie, leaving him homeless. This is one of the reasons I don't like having too many of one type and oddly enough the List Manager (Terry Wallace) has started banging on about the same thing in recent weeks.

Young talls can get injured easily I guess and probably need the older hardened bodies while they develop.

Fast forward a couple of years without Rowe, Casboult, Lamb, ASOS and O’Shea (and Simpson) ...

Tall backs: Weitering, Macreadie, Jones
‘Mid size backs’: Plowman, Marchbank
Running backs: Docherty, Williamson, (Byrne, Schumacher)

Tall forwards: McKay, TDK
‘Unmatchable forward’: Charlie
‘Mid-sized forward’: Jack, Kerr
Running forwards: Pickett, Garlett, ( Lebois)

If you switch to midfield in a couple of years and think Murphy and Ed is no longer first choice midfield:

Cripps, Kennedy, SPS, Fisher, Lang, Dow, O’Brien, (Cuningham, Polson, Kerridge).

We have some way to go. And precious little trade bait.

 

[Foucault1989]

That's not my point Skyhorse.

My point in a nutshell is that if at the end of the year, Rankine was rated second best player overall at 9.2/10 and King rated best at 9.4/10; just take the need and don't further unbalance our list. Why? Because when I look back at history the number 1 vs the number 2 pick pick which is in effect best available versus second best available in theory shows up the following:

1. Boyd vs 2. Kelly
1. Mcartin vs 2. Petracca
1. Weitering vs 2. Schache
1. Mcgrath vs 2. Taranto

Not much in it so pick who we need. And then as an aside to that, if King (defender) is one, overlook the ****** as we don't need him.

I 100% agree with you here. Even the title "best available" is misleading and entirely subjective. In my honest opinion who is considered best available differs from team to team. For us, I think Rankine is the best available player. For say Richmond, Lukosius would be the best available in player

 

[Iamcarlton]

God I hate hearing this.

We have one tall forward that's shown anything and that's Curnow.

The rest have shown as much as Polson and Pickett and less than Cunners.

Unless you're counting Polson in our midfield going forward, don't count TDK, McKay or any of our other forwards in the discussion.

Youve been looking at our forwardline the wrong way for 2 years now .
The evidence is only now starting to emerge they just need time .
This year weve had 5 and 4 goal hauls in different games from both Charlie and Cas .
4 in another from Harry . Several 2s combined from Charlie and Cas .
What have we had from any other avenues ie medium small forwards midfielders pushing forward 5 from Wright first round then basically nada . When we start even breaking even in the midfield let alone where we are now your fears will be allayed somewhat .
But not totally till we have some smaller medium size forwards that can contribute some scoreboard pressure as well on a consistent basis .
Your prepared to give Jones time and our young midfielders time why not our tall forwards ?
Midfielders and goalkicking ones at that and fast goalkicking small and medium forwards is the need .

 

[Arr0w]

Out of interest, how many games has he played fwd this season?

Not many, given his brother normally plays forward, so Ben is just as comfortable as a backman. As a junior he has been more prolific than Max as a forward. Last week for Haileybury he kicked 11 goals, against Geelong Grammer, admittedly they did win by 156 points.

Very similar style to a Carlisle

 

[Arr0w]

The draft is a crapshoot mate it amuses me even when i hear recruiters and so called experts talk about best available .
These are 17+18 year old kids lots of talented kids many of them that have an enormous amount of growing and maturing to do .
That can quite easily see those underdeveloped kids go flying past the more fancied kids of the time in future years . The draft is just the beginning .
How anyone can be so definitive as you are regarding best available and the draft is a little perplexing tbh .

Think I have mentioned previously that what these kids are now, is only a small part of what they could be as a player. You try and determine how much improvement they could have. That's why I never base my opinions on what they are currently achieving. As this season progresses, you get a better indication of how they have been developing over the last 3 years and what more development can be unearthed