Analysis 2018 List Management discussion Part 1 (continued in Part 2 - see OP for link)

[djholmes]

Team for next season:

B: Plowman------------Marchbank-------------Bryne

H: Docherty------------Weitering-------------Simpson

C: C.Curnow------------Cripps----------------O'Brien

H: Lang----------------Lukosius-------------SPS

F: Garlett---------------McKay----------------Pickett

R: Kreuzer, Dow, Murphy

Bench: Williamson, Kennedy, E. Curnow, Fisher

 

[ParapMarkets]

North are a funny one because all of Larkey, McKay, Durdin, Ahern, Clarke, Hibberd, Pruess Even Walker looked bloody good and are preforming as well as our kids at the lower level (most actually a lot better) and would have had a lot more games at our club but they can't force their way into their side. That's not even counting LDU who if he was on our list we would be calling a possible A grader.
They also probably have just as much money as us for FA's and if they get lucky they could get two top ten pick players in this draft so they could have a better hand than us this off season.

They actually have some good young talent. I really like Simpkin, Ahern just had an excellent debut and then of course LDU. I’m not really sold on some of the other names you mention though.

 

[TooBlue14]

Team for next season:

B: Plowman------------Marchbank-------------Bryne

H: Docherty------------Weitering-------------Simpson

C: C.Curnow------------Cripps----------------O'Brien

H: Lang----------------Lukosius-------------SPS

F: Garlett---------------McKay----------------Pickett

R: Kreuzer, Dow, Murphy

Bench: Williamson, Kennedy, E. Curnow, Fisher

You’re kidding if you think Rowe and jones won’t get games. Also cuningham and Kerr.

 

[Accidental genius]

Pickett has elite talent and once he gets going will be A grade. Never an A-Grader. A-Grade highlights but unlikely to be an everyday performer
Marchbank will be a star. Could become an A-Grader
Kennedy is a damn good player. Just needs to get fit. Just needs to get fit and just needs to fit. A goof cog in the right system.
Byrne has talent just needs his body to handle AFL. Agree. Shame about the body, to date.
Murphy could play another 2-3 years as a gun small forward ala Brent Harvey. Possible. Would be the best outcome.

then there is

Cuningham has talent it's just time. May not get that time. Could be super-ceded very quickly.
Dow will be elite. No doubt. A possible A-Grader, yes.
Charlie will be elite. No doubt. No doubt.
Weitering will be elite. No doubt. Could be, may not become. Would settle for an A- right now.
SPS will be elite. No doubt just needs a pre season. Agree.
Fisher will be an underrated player. 200 game vital component. Agree.
McKay has talent it's just time. Has talent. Has time. Has the will to succeed? I think he does, but not all have.
O'Brien is young but has the work ethic and skills. Will be a player. Agree.
Kerr is underrated and IMO will be a very good player ala Darling. Huge doubts on that coming about.
TDK has something special. Agree
Macreadie just needs to get fit. Incredible reader of ball coming in and body positioning is elite. Agree. Can't wait to see him with Docherty next year.
Williamson has poise of a 200 game player and elite skills. Agree.
Polson is smart and underestimated. Best 22 estimated? May depend on our ability to reel in FA's and do some good trading.
If LeBois can get fit he will surprise many. Freakish talent. Has the opportunity, but injuries hurt him this year. Will he get another? Likely.
Silvagni will find his way. Very good player. Could be a very good role player. need more talent around him to make him better.
Garlett has elite talent just needs confidence and belief. Needs something, but does have time on his side.


Not quite as optimistic, but optimistic enough.

Enjoyed reading that but you missed feedback on silvagni. How do you think he will go?

 

[HARKER]

Another somewhat pointless attempt at what our team may look like come 2019
Going to go super optimistic and taking into account possible retirements and recruits.

Byrne Jones Plowman
Docherty Marchbank ****** I feel we still haven't nailed a small back. It may or may not come from within. Assuming Simpson retires.

Kreuzer Cripps Gaff
SPS Kennedy Williamson

CCurnow Weitering Dow
Murphy McKay Pickett

ECurnow, Pick #1/2, Fisher, Lang

Only two additions here (Gaff & Pick #1/2) and have a look at how many are being left out.
Youth: Cuningham, Macreadie, Silvagni, O'Brien & Garlett
Oldies: Thomas, Wright, Rowe, Kerridge & ASilvagni

Can't fit them all in and plenty of massaging to come about before we settle on what may be our best starting squad.

 

[Mr_Plow]

You’re kidding if you think Rowe and jones won’t get games. Also cuningham and Kerr.

Ideally we'll be able to phase Rowe out in 2019 with Jones, Weitering, Marchbank and Plowman collectively coping with the bulk of defensive duties and the return of Docherty and Williamson. I still think Jones will be an important feature of our defence for 4-5 years if he isn't traded.

As we know though, things rarely go to plan at Carlton.

Cuningham may find himself on the outer if we are able to nail some trades/FA this off-season. Kerr has impressed in limited time, he's got some forward acumen.

 

[norway blue]

You’re kidding if you think Rowe and jones won’t get games. Also cuningham and Kerr.

Jones is solid I’m a fan . Backline need to get synergy. Let alone the whole team . Takes time and continuity. Especially for a bottom team.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[katmanblue]

Sorry, I cocked up my example, should of been :

Ladder Positions 18-9, Picks 1-10
Ladder Positions 18-9, Picks 11-20
Ladder Positions 8-1, Picks 21-28

How about something like this.
18th-9th get 1-9, then alternate 8, 18, 7, 17, 6, 16, 5, 15, 4, 14, 3, 13, 2, 12, 1, 11, 10, 9. Then to normal sequence 18 to 1st.

18th - 1, 12, 27, 45
17th - 2, 14, 28, 46
16th - 3, 16, 29, 47
15th - 4, 18, 30, 48
14th - 5, 20, 31, 49
13th - 6, 22, 32, 50
12th - 7, 24, 33, 51
11th - 8, 26, 34, 52
10th - 9, 35, 53
9th - 10, 36, 54
8th - 11, 37, 55
7th - 13, 38, 56
6th - 15, 39, 57
5th - 17, 40, 58
4th - 19, 41, 59
3rd - 21, 42, 60
2nd - 23, 43, 61
1st - 25, 44, 62

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[TooBlue14]

Ideally we'll be able to phase Rowe out in 2019 with Jones, Weitering, Marchbank and Plowman collectively coping with the bulk of defensive duties and the return of Docherty and Williamson. I still think Jones will be an important feature of our defence for 4-5 years if he isn't traded.

As we know though, things rarely go to plan at Carlton.

Cuningham may find himself on the outer if we are able to nail some trades/FA this off-season. Kerr has impressed in limited time, he's got some forward acumen.

Out of Carlton players I say cuningham has the most upside and talent. If it comes together for him. He will blow this comp a new one. It’ll come.

 

[BlueRenaissance]

This is how I see us starting the 2020 season and shows us our draft/FA needs. People can talk about players on our list filling those spots but for mine, there is just not enough confidence there not to recruit more in their position. Williamson, O’Brien and Mckay taken on faith.

From a positive spin, the ones I have named are the ones I really rate. The ones missing are either too old (Simmo/E Curnow/Murph) or I dont rate that highly from 2020 onwards.

-------? -----Weitering---Macreadie
Williamson--Marchbank---Docherty
----Lang-----Cripps-------O Brien
------?-------Curnow-------Fisher
------?--------Mckay----------?----
Kruezer------Kennedy-------Dow
I/C SPS, Silvagni, Pickett, Cuningham

Gone: Murphy, Thomas, Simpson, L Casbault, Wright, Rowe, A Silvagni, E Curnow, Lobbe.
Don’t rate: Jones (due to consistency), Polson & Lebois (cant get the ball at VFL level), Kerridge & Graham (disposal), Lamb (consistency).
GTFO: Mullet, OShea and the GC reject.
Depth: Plowman and Byrne.
More time needed: TDK working into calculations – our 2022 first choice ruck.

2018/2019 drafts (1st/2nd round picks or FA): Mid (Dow clone with more height), gun small forward, gun quarterback (Docherty clone), then best available.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

Pickett has elite talent and once he gets going will be A grade. Never an A-Grader. A-Grade highlights but unlikely to be an everyday performer
Marchbank will be a star. Could become an A-Grader
Kennedy is a damn good player. Just needs to get fit. Just needs to get fit and just needs to fit. A goof cog in the right system.
Byrne has talent just needs his body to handle AFL. Agree. Shame about the body, to date.
Murphy could play another 2-3 years as a gun small forward ala Brent Harvey. Possible. Would be the best outcome.

then there is

Cuningham has talent it's just time. May not get that time. Could be super-ceded very quickly.
Dow will be elite. No doubt. A possible A-Grader, yes.
Charlie will be elite. No doubt. No doubt.
Weitering will be elite. No doubt. Could be, may not become. Would settle for an A- right now.
SPS will be elite. No doubt just needs a pre season. Agree.
Fisher will be an underrated player. 200 game vital component. Agree.
McKay has talent it's just time. Has talent. Has time. Has the will to succeed? I think he does, but not all have.
O'Brien is young but has the work ethic and skills. Will be a player. Agree.
Kerr is underrated and IMO will be a very good player ala Darling. Huge doubts on that coming about.
TDK has something special. Agree
Macreadie just needs to get fit. Incredible reader of ball coming in and body positioning is elite. Agree. Can't wait to see him with Docherty next year.
Williamson has poise of a 200 game player and elite skills. Agree.
Polson is smart and underestimated. Best 22 estimated? May depend on our ability to reel in FA's and do some good trading.
If LeBois can get fit he will surprise many. Freakish talent. Has the opportunity, but injuries hurt him this year. Will he get another? Likely.
Silvagni will find his way. Very good player. Could be a very good role player. need more talent around him to make him better.
Garlett has elite talent just needs confidence and belief. Needs something, but does have time on his side.


Not quite as optimistic, but optimistic enough.

Im split 50 / 50 between agreeing with your comments and Soapy's comments.

 

[95bluemember]

Team for next season:

B: Plowman------------Marchbank-------------Bryne

H: Docherty------------Weitering-------------Simpson

C: C.Curnow------------Cripps----------------O'Brien

H: Lang----------------Lukosius-------------SPS

F: Garlett---------------McKay----------------Pickett

R: Kreuzer, Dow, Murphy

Bench: Williamson, Kennedy, E. Curnow, Fisher

I hope like hell we add more players than that!
That looks like another year of pain, we need to bring in way more quality than that.
Is this team based on a lousy trade period?

 

[Mr_Plow]

Out of Carlton players I say cuningham has the most upside and talent. If it comes together for him. He will blow this comp a new one. It’ll come.

He has the ability to be an offensive weapon, without doubt.
I just doubt whether he'll be able to gather the mental fortitude to reach those heights.

Some people just don't have it.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

Team for next season:

B: Plowman------------Marchbank-------------Bryne

H: Docherty------------Weitering-------------Simpson

C: C.Curnow------------Cripps----------------O'Brien

H: Lang----------------Lukosius-------------SPS

F: Garlett---------------McKay----------------Pickett

R: Kreuzer, Dow, Murphy

Bench: Williamson, Kennedy, E. Curnow, Fisher

Lukosius? I don't even think we will have the number 1 pick to even be able to get him.

 

[LordLucifer]

How about something like this.
18th-9th get 1-9, then alternate 8, 18, 7, 17, 6, 16, 5, 15, 4, 14, 3, 13, 2, 12, 1, 11, 10, 9. Then to normal sequence 18 to 1st.

18th - 1, 12, 27, 45
17th - 2, 14, 28, 46
16th - 3, 16, 29, 47
15th - 4, 18, 30, 48
14th - 5, 20, 31, 49
13th - 6, 22, 32, 50
12th - 7, 24, 33, 51
11th - 8, 26, 34, 52
10th - 9, 35, 53
9th - 10, 36, 54
8th - 11, 37, 55
7th - 13, 38, 56
6th - 15, 39, 57
5th - 17, 40, 58
4th - 19, 41, 59
3rd - 21, 42, 60
2nd - 23, 43, 61
1st - 25, 44, 62

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

I'm struggling to see the benefit of doing it that way.

The overall aim is to make the teams as 'equal' as possible so the teams that didn't contest the finals should be the ones who get the leg-up.

 

[Soapy V]

I’d like to appoint you on the “get Gaff” committee. I don’t think it as hopeless dream as many do. We would probably offer $1.2-$1.4 million over 5 years above what WCE could, not small change and there aren’t that many other clubs that could do that, if he did want to go back to Melbourne. Front loaded, it wouldn’t affect us long term either. We just need to be able to sell our future to him, we have an incredibly talented young list, it just needs some quality senior players to help lift it.

I think Gaff would be a fantastic addition to our list. Then add Kelly in 2020 is what my focus would be

 

[TooBlue14]

Lukosius? I don't even think we will have the number 1 pick to even be able to get him.

With our second half of the year and Bris, saints and gc going the way they are I can see us winning 4 games and getting pick 3-4. We might miss lukosius, king and maybe Walsh too but there is a huge top end to pick from. Rozzee, Smith, Rankine, max king, hately. I like Bailey smith if we had this pick range as he’s a midfield defender who we need (in the mould of a Cotchin, McGrath). Fits a need.

 

[Metalcrusher]

I think Gaff would be a fantastic addition to our list. Then add Kelly in 2020 is what my focus would be

I really don't think Gaff will land at CFC. I cant see him leaving especially seeing who the toasters are travelling this year. Don't get me wrong, I'm a huge Gaff advocate, just can't see him leaving is all.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

With our second half of the year and Bris, saints and gc going the way they are I can see us winning 4 games and getting pick 3-4. We might miss lukosius, king and maybe Walsh too but there is a huge top end to pick from. Rozzee, Smith, Rankine, max king, hately. I like Bailey smith if we had this pick range as he’s a midfield defender who we need (in the mould of a Cotchin, McGrath). Fits a need.

If Im honest, I don't see us beating Brisbane the way they are playing.

 

[TooBlue14]

I really don't think Gaff will land at CFC. I cant see him leaving especially seeing who the toasters are travelling this year. Don't get me wrong, I'm a huge Gaff advocate, just can't see him leaving is all.

I think if he wants to return to Vic and prolong his career. West coast have opened a small window (suprisingly) but it will shot just as quick. Naitanui and his injuries, Kennedy over 30, lecras over 30, Hurn over 30, McGovern FA leaving? If Gaff goes they don’t play finals next year with that list imo. He’d want to not be travelling every second week. Even Sam Mitchell would of lasted 2-3 more years had he stayed in Vic. Players just don’t last in the West past a certain point.

 

[TooBlue14]

If Im honest, I don't see us beating Brisbane the way they are playing.

Even so. We will beat Freo (home), saints, GC, ? On port, adel, dogs, GWS, Hawks, Bris, freo (away). None of these teams are capable of belting us either.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

They actually have some good young talent. I really like Simpkin, Ahern just had an excellent debut and then of course LDU. I’m not really sold on some of the other names you mention though.

I don't either to be honest but they have shown as much as most of our kids so I can see why they (being biased) are confident about their future.

 

[true blue19]

Beat me to it BFC.

Pickett has elite talent and once he gets going will be A grade
Marchbank will be a star
Kennedy is a damn good player. Just needs to get fit
Byrne has talent just needs his body to handle AFL
Murphy could play another 2-3 years as a gun small forward ala Brent Harvey

then there is

Cuningham has talent it's just time
Dow will be elite. No doubt
Charlie will be elite. No doubt
Weitering will be elite. No doubt
SPS will be elite. No doubt just needs a pre season
Fisher will be an underrated player. 200 game vital component
McKay has talent it's just time
O'Brien is young but has the work ethic and skills. Will be a player
Kerr is underrated and IMO will be a very good player ala Darling
TDK has something special
Macreadie just needs to get fit. Incredible reader of ball coming in and body positioning is elite
Williamson has poise of a 200 game player and elite skills
Polson is smart and underestimated
If LeBois can get fit he will surprise many. Freakish talent
Silvagni will find his way. Very good player
Garlett has elite talent just needs confidence and belief

IMO the talent on our list is there. It's as good as I have ever seen (including GWS). It's just time.

So many people have short term thinking and judge on such a small sample. 2018 was always going to be a struggle and injuries have made it much worse. This is the pinnacle and even for seasoned players they need to be fit and in good sides. It's not easy and for "kids" its even harder. 2019 will be a big improvement but it won't be until 2020 when we see the real results. Even then that is a quick improvement.

It's all positive. Go Blues

I can’t disagree with you other than I think you have undersold O’Brien will be a superstar and the 2nd most exciting player on our list behind Curnow.

 

[ParapMarkets]

I think Gaff would be a fantastic addition to our list. Then add Kelly in 2020 is what my focus would be

Yep, though Kelly will be extremely hard to get with North offering up big coin again. Maybe Shiel instead?

 

[CFC_#17]

Ideally we'll be able to phase Rowe out in 2019 with Jones, Weitering, Marchbank and Plowman collectively coping with the bulk of defensive duties and the return of Docherty and Williamson. I still think Jones will be an important feature of our defence for 4-5 years if he isn't traded.

As we know though, things rarely go to plan at Carlton.

Cuningham may find himself on the outer if we are able to nail some trades/FA this off-season. Kerr has impressed in limited time, he's got some forward acumen.

But the only problem is who out of Weitering, Marchbank or Jones can play the lockdown defender that Rowe can play.