- Jul 21, 2018
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Need a bit of help. 230K in the bank and no idea where to spend it. Don't want Grundy.
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2019 planning
- Thread starter samFFC
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- Jan 27, 2017
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See I think what a lot of people get caught up on, is what a definition of a 'mid-pricer' really is. For me, players like Higgins, Andy Brayshaw, Papley, Hanley, McGrath, Mills, Parfitt, Worpel etc. are your typical mid pricer.
Then it comes down to what your definition of a 'fallen premo' is. For me that's when a player historically has scored at 90 or above - so Libba and Brouch fall into this category.
The real part where I see a lot of people get unstuck, is what they classify as a 'rookie.' For me, I think if you've played less than 10 games in a season and your average is around 50 or so, then you can classify that as a 'high end rook' in the same vein with those players from the first round over 250K. Going by this, I see Ridley, Clark, Setterfield, Walsh and Drew all as my rooks, albeit at different ends of the price scale. I think the cut off is somewhere around the mark Cousins is at this year, maybe slightly less at 320K. Even though McCarthy has been in the system for a fair bit, he's still only 35K dearer than Walsh, and has impeccable job security. Even though they are mid-pricers in a sense that they're established, their price point still places them in that rookie zone. Phillips is one who is a mid-pricer, but he has a specific purpose in that he'll be gone after 2 rounds, in order to get to another player. So he's not speculative in the sense that I know what his role is and I honestly just need him to play, and that's it.
The last one is, who do you pick to be the breakout players this year. For me, Sheed, Smith & Williams will all outscore their averages, with there being very little downside in choosing them, but plenty of upside.
To illustrate how I've come to every player in my team on field (I have half an hour while my dinner's cooking haha), here's a brief overview:
DEFENCE:
(Keeper) Lachie Whitfield (Premo) - Has a high ceiling and is still a reliable scorer for a defender, in that he plays a lot of wing/mid time. Toss up between him and Lloyd, with the nod slightly going to Whit
(Keeper) Jack Crisp (Premo) - Has a decent ceiling and Collingwood's new game style with plenty of marks gave him the nod over Witherden
(Trade) Brodie Smith - (Midpricer) - Cheap as it gets and guaranteed to go up in price. Will take all kick-ins according to the Crows, which will boost his numbers too
(Trade) Zac Williams (Midpricer) - Same as above, minus the kick-ins (although he could take a few)
(Trade) Jordan Ridley (High end Rookie) - Bombers board seem to think that he slots into Goddard's old role, and looks to take a lot of marks/has decent disposal
(Trade) Scrimshaw/Clark/Duursma (Expensive Rookie) - All seem to have a good shot at it, with Clark seeming to have the best job security (preference will be decided when Archie Smith has been revealed as playing or not)
MIDFIELD:
(Keeper) Adam Treloar (Premo) - Same as above with Jack Crisp, and comments surrounding his permanent mid time and extra possessions due to his explosive running, mean that Pendles has labelled him as the 'midfield general.' Hard to ignore those comments and that score
(Keeper) Angus Brayshaw (Premo) - Had him all pre-season and JLT has done nothing to dispel that confidence. Has all the attributes of a fantasy beast, and is just so good to watch
(Keeper) Tim Taranto (Breakout Premo) - Anyone that saw him during pre-season and heard all the comments from coaches about his 'substantial increase in midfield time', knows that this is his year. A 140 during JLT and a huge pre-season game against the Swans, showed that he could be the 'Clayton Oliver' of 2019
(Keeper) Tom Rockliff (Fallen Premo) - The pig in all his glory. Was considered on and off all pre-season, and believe it or not it was not his score that actually sucked me in. A 178 is no easy feat, but what most convinced me, was his tank and his willingness to just cover as much ground as possible to rack up disposals at will. Couple that with shedding a few kgs, a full pre-season and his phone call with Roy where he made pig sounds when he answered (showing that he knew he was back), and I couldn't ignore him any longer
(Trade) Brad Crouch (Fallen Premo) - Another one alongside Brayshaw who I've had in since fantasy opened. Has historically put out similar numbers to his brother, and is 337K cheaper. Priced at 72 and can go 105+, no brainer IMO. Comes with an injury risk, but all reports are that he's had a good pre-season and is looking primed for a big year. JLT scores of 114 and 118 don't hurt either
(Trade) Dom Sheed (Midpricer/Breakout Premo) - The one I'm the least sure on, but the most excited about. Tracked his progress through pre-season and saw him absolutely dominate against us in JLT 1. Did this with Shuey lighting it up in the first half and Gaff also playing. Was concerned that they might take his scores away, but did not affect him in the least. Only has to go 74 to justify picking him, and he should at least be capable of 85-90 on the low end, and 95-100 on the high end. Will make a lot of cash if it works out
(Trade) Tom Liberatore (Fallen Premo/Stepping stone) - That's right, a fallen premo, not a midpricer. Guy has gone over 90 and close to 100 twice in his career, and is in a contract year. That last part is why I'm picking him, because he needs to have a pretty good year, in order to get another contract. Priced like a mid-pricer at the low end, but can score as well as any premo. Will score low in some games, but will balance that out with some 90-100+ scores due to his high tackle numbers and high mid time. Hard to ignore
(Trade) Sam Walsh (High end Rookie) - Don't even need to explain this one. Everyone should have this kid in their team. He's a gun, and will be the last rook traded out, without a doubt
RUCK:
(Keeper) Max Gawn (Premo) - Was sitting as Brodie Grundy before JLT, but the shocking performance from Preuss and his injury/projected time in the VFL to work on his craft, means that Gawn is a solid choice and should score well again. Grundy's interrupted pre-season due to his toe injury being the main issue that forced him out, not his JLT scores
(Trade) Andrew Phillips (Low end Midpricer/Stepping Stone) - Was Kreuzer before he was all but ruled out for Round 1, but will still be used in the same fashion in order to get to Mumford, who is more than 25 points under-priced. Will be used as a long-term plan to secure the highest scoring ruck (likely to be Grundy), at his lowest price point, for minimal amount spent
FORWARD:
(Keeper) Patrick Dangerfield (Premo) - It's Danger, and he's a forward, no explanation needed. Every good team will have him
(Keeper) Travis Boak (Premo) - Confirmed full time role in the midfield by the club and his outing in both JLT's, more than enough to secure him in my side. Not much explanation needed
(Keeper) Tim Kelly (Breakout Premo) - Was Heeney/Parfitt before I was advised that Hutchings actually tagged him in JLT 1, which is why his scoring was so poor. Came out swinging with a 108 in his second JLT match, with the most centre bounce attendances in the team. Went 97 in the second half of last year, as opposed to his 83 in the first half
(Trade) James Worpel (Midpricer) - Second most speculative pick, but balanced by the fact that a lot of people will have him and there is a gaping hole in the Hawthorn midfield. Toss up between him and Newnes with his new full midfield role, but chosen as a defensive play, in order to mitigate the fallout if he doesn't score as projected
(Trade) Will Setterfield (High end Rookie) - Simply the only decent rook in the forward line, who you know has good midfield time and can score well. A gift from the fantasy gods rookie wise
(Trade) Willem Drew (Basement Rookie) - Touted midfield time and has been in the system a few years. Looks a decent pick and should play a fair few games. Only basement rook or thereabouts who actually may get midfield time, as the rest are stay at home forward or KPP's
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So going off the above, I have the following:
7 Premos
2 Fallen Premos
2 Breakout Premos
1 Fallen Premo/Stepping stone (which a lot of teams also have which mitigates risk)
1 Midpricer/Breakout Premo (speculative)
3 Genuine Midpricers (but most teams should have them which mitigates the risk)
1 Low end Midpricer/Stepping Stone (but only for 2 rounds)
3 High end Rookies
1 Expensive Rookie
1 Basement Rookie
10 Keepers, possibly 11 if someone like Sheed, Brouch, Williams or Smith has a big year (more unlikely than likely)
If you take the above and simplify it, then it means I have the following:
12/13 Premos
4/5 Midpricers
5 Rookies
That's pretty much how I see it. Sheed and Worpel are the only one's that concern me, and both of them have some pretty big upside. Everyone else has a purpose and I don't see as a 'risky' midpricer due to what their role in my team is.
Anyway, food for thought for anyone looking at reasoning for certain strategies
Are you concerned at all about Treloar getting tagged? Like you said, he's explosive running probably makes him the Pies most dangerous mid. I still think Sideass will be first to get the tag but there is still a chance it will be Trel sometimes. You have Mrouch who is a little cheaper and has virtually no risk for a tag, and I think he has potential to reach a 115 avg this year. I have no idea how to access ownership % so it may be a POD move for you which is fine. The pies midfield is so stacked that I don't think you can say that anyone will be 'pure mid'.
Same argument goes for Lloyd vs Whit. Lloyd seems so much safer imo. I see Whit starting off really well and then getting tagged, which means 60s and not touching the ball for long periods of time. With Shiel gone, one of Jelly or Whit gets tagged regularly and I don't think Jelly can even be tagged. Last year, when someone stood near Whit I just immediately locked him in for a 60. We also haven't seen a lot of Whit and Williams playing together. If Whit is pushed to the wing then his scoring will drop off.
- Dec 21, 2012
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Dusty to Cogs would be my suggestion, Treloar if you don't want 4 Giants.
- Jan 27, 2017
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I'd go Collins OUT, Burgess to DEF, then get in a 170k fwd rook like Balta.
Then go Butters OUT, Sheed IN
- Apr 28, 2007
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I wouldn't hit panic stations just yet. Dons board seems to rate Ridley after his strong JLT, at his price you can give him a couple of weeks and worst case downgrade to a Duursma/Scrimshaw type if they hold their spot in the side.
Both things definitely considered, but I still think both of them are one down in the tagging order. Sidebottom is just so damaging with ball in hand, that he'll always be the first to get a tag. With that said, there's so many dangerous mids now, that most teams won't even bother. It's also going to be extremely hard to tag quick players like Whit and Trel, given that they'll have all the space in the world to do what they want. Only similar speedy players like Miller, Prestia, Guthrie etc. will have any chance of locking them down in the same fashion
The tag with Whit is a nightmare though, I definitely remember the pain. He also is able to go 150 some weeks when he's not tagged, which is more what I'm looking at if I'm not trading him. It'll balance out. Plus, I've factored all the round 1 match ups into my decision, and he has Essendon. Definitely won't be getting a tag there
But what to do if I already have Duurs and Scrim
Haha in all seriousness though, I agree. Will be starting him as it's his spot to lose! Hopefully that JLT form translates in the real stuff. I'll have to change my supercoach side though as limited trades in that format mean it's way too dicey to start him.
My latest iteration has left me with $0 remaining. It's a sign I reckon.
- Mar 20, 2007
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All the sides on the Hawks board seem to include him
95 + 85 vs 75 + 105(?). Can't really split them pts-wise imo, unless you think Steele or Taranto is a chance of going 110 that is. Personally I'd go option 1, Elliott scares me more than Libba does haha.
A sign that you'll be 1k short after round 1
He was in my initial squad and have had him in the past, typically a very consistent scorer. I remember trading him in one year and he had 39 at qtr time and was feeling quite chuffed with my new addition
, he then proceeded to get knocked out and didn't play for the next 3 weeks *** gave me a good chance to work on my venting skills . I reckon he'll do well.happy to roll with him at this stage, if he starts well his position in the team is likely safe, if he doesn't he'll be on the chopping block anyway.
- Mar 24, 2012
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Don't know about that.
Plays the following and my predictions for his scores;
Sydney; fairly high chance he'll get a tag from Hewitt (105)
Hawthorn; have tagged in the past and with a more inexperienced midfield may throw someone on him to gain experience (125)
Gold Coast; Probably not and scored 155 on them last year, but Miller has tagged in the past (130)
Collingwood: Tried Greenwood on him last year and he still got 113, but tough midfield to play against (100)
SO my prediction is a 115 average which will see him drop about $100k by round 6.
Personally I think he will come back to the field a little this year and there might even be 1 or 2 other players who average as much as him.
Yeah true. Can always trade down or sideways to a surprise performing player that we will no doubt miss.
Also word with Redman is that he can play up the field which means he may come in and not even affect Ridley. Here’s hoping
I’m finding it very hard to outlay that kind of coin for him when we have guys like Grundy and Gawn who probably warrant the spending more so than Macrae does
Zevon
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Been operating under the same theory myself. Priced at a whopping 123 and it just isn’t as easy maintaining that sort of average as some people are making out. $890,000 is an awful lot of money to fork out on someone who may well end up averaging (at least to begin with) the same as some of the midfielders costing $100-$150k less.
Will have egg on my face if he does go bang from the start but happy enough to take the punt that he won’t.
- May 20, 2017
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That's one argument. The other is if Macrae in your side then you have a captain locked for the entire season who is a very good chance to top score in overall points for the year.
Yes Coniglio/Treloar/Brayshaw etc may all be similar to Macrae on their day, but as consistent? No one rivalled Macrae last year. If it happens again the car is gone for anyone without him R1.
Set and forget.
I agree that the extra outlay isn’t worth it in that position currently.
Flip side to the argument is that he averaged something like 135 in his last 6 or so games last year (can’t remember the exact stat but it’s close to that at the very worst) and he could very easily do that. Even as your captain option.
Still can’t bring myself to do it though
