Prediction 2019 "Hypothetical Trade, FA, random player you wish we could get" thread..

[Sixpence]

I actually thought the funniest thing was Abasi being called Wasabi. How many bridges do you think you have burnt over your BigFooty tenure mate?

Clearly Abasi is too hot for Loken to handle.

 

[Bugs1977]

Clearly Abasi is too hot for Loken to handle.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

View attachment 721502

I just think he's calling me "hot stuff". It's kinda cute.

 

[sven_inc]

Would our pick 7 and Isaac Smith be worth Melbourne's pick 2? Have to be close surely. #noah

 

[Millsie69]

Would our pick 7 and Isaac Smith be worth Melbourne's pick 2? Have to be close surely. #noah

Long way off I reckon mate.

 

[Dewnior]

Would our pick 7 and Isaac Smith be worth Melbourne's pick 2? Have to be close surely. #noah

Melbourne won't have pick 2

 

[kazzooka]

Melbourne won't have pick 2

If Gold Coast get a priority pick I will spew up. wasted everything they get. They don't need a pick they need an audit.

 

[Brant]

Quoted from non-Hypothetical FA/Trade thread:

I’ve got us getting pick 5 and personally wouldn’t trade that for Hill or Crouch

I agree & I wouldn't trade Pick 5 for Hill or Crouch.

But I'd trade Pick 5 to GWS for Picks 14 (theirs) & Pick 15 (their Compo for losing Cogs).

And, I'd happily swap Pick 15 for Brad Hill.

Now....

Where to spend Pick 14


#singleseasonrebuild

 

[Brant]

I reckon we could shut most other clubs out & deal direct with GWS in a manner that saw both clubs make 4-5 moves that benefited both.

Very unlikely & without precedent - I get that - but not a breach of rules & should be something both clubs look at

 

[Dewnior]

If Gold Coast get a priority pick I will spew up. wasted everything they get. They don't need a pick they need an audit.

That or the $tains continue to tank

 

[Kinghts 24]

Surely GCS need established players more than they need more high / top picks.

They get Pick 2 i reckon it will be on the table for an established 'star'.

Isaac Smith and our first pick ~6 for their pick 2 would be neat!

 

[Brant]

Surely GCS need established players more than they need more high / top picks.

They get Pick 2 i reckon it will be on the table for an established 'star'.

Isaac Smith and our first pick ~6 for their pick 2 would be neat!

Hope he likes the GC then!!!

 

[Bugs1977]

Quoted from non-Hypothetical FA/Trade thread:



I agree & I wouldn't trade Pick 5 for Hill or Crouch.

But I'd trade Pick 5 to GWS for Picks 14 (theirs) & Pick 15 (their Compo for losing Cogs).

And, I'd happily swap Pick 15 for Brad Hill.

Now....

Where to spend Pick 14


#singleseasonrebuild

If we could somehow manage to in one offseason get:

• Coniglio (free agent)
• Trade pick 5 & Smith for pick 2 and draft Anderson who could play the same role as Rozee
• Maginness
• Patton
• Amon
• Future 1st for Hill and Freo’s 2nd

I’ll start a GoFund me page to build Wrighty his own personal statue.

 

[Geelongsuck]

I bet it’s saint kilda hahah

 

[RoughysMullet]

If we could somehow manage to in one offseason get:

• Coniglio (free agent)
• Trade pick 5 & Smith for pick 2 and draft Anderson who could play the same role as Rozee
• Maginness
• Patton
• Amon
• Future 1st for Hill and Freo’s 2nd

I’ll start a GoFund me page to build Wrighty his own personal statue.

Man that would be great - would completely transform our list. Add to that the potential of Whitfield as a free agent end of 2020..

 

[Judd2Sewell]

Quoted from non-Hypothetical FA/Trade thread:



I agree & I wouldn't trade Pick 5 for Hill or Crouch.

But I'd trade Pick 5 to GWS for Picks 14 (theirs) & Pick 15 (their Compo for losing Cogs).

And, I'd happily swap Pick 15 for Brad Hill.

Now....

Where to spend Pick 14


#singleseasonrebuild

Now that's a very interesting trade.

We know they want Green, and we know he's rated as a top 5 prospect - top 3 for most.

So the question is whether their first pick would be good enough to get him at 14, given that someone will likely bid on him early? And if not, how keen to get him are they really?

Would pick 5 to 8 be enough to land him? If so we could turn our first, likely with a makeweight later pick (third rounder?), into both of their firsts.

Could someone explain to me how the bidding actually works - say GWS have pick 14, what earlier pick would need to be used to ensure that their pick 14 wouldn't be enough to get Green? And could GWS just package later picks along with their first?

 

[Brant]

Could someone explain to me how the bidding actually works - say GWS have pick 14, what earlier pick would need to be used to ensure that their pick 14 wouldn't be enough to get Green? And could GWS just package later picks along with their first?

If they chose to match a Pick, they'd have to use the next available Pick (14) + the next available Pick - likely to be 15 (Cogs compo). Those Picks 14 + 15 would likely be more points than they needed, so they'd be given a Pick back, effectively as 'change'. This would be a 3rd Rounder-ish; whatever the Points amount equates to.

There's a table that shows what Pick 14 + 15 can defeat (by way of early bid) & what change they'd receive, but I don't have it. If Pick 14 + 15 didn't meet the initial bid in points, then they'd just have to keep packaging their Picks until they did match the points amount.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

If they chose to match a Pick, they'd have to use the next available Pick (14) + the next available Pick - likely to be 15 (Cogs compo). Those Picks 14 + 15 would likely be more points than they needed, so they'd be given a Pick back, effectively as 'change'. This would be a 3rd Rounder-ish; whatever the Points amount equates to.

There's a table that shows what Pick 14 + 15 can defeat (by way of early bid) & what change they'd receive, but I don't have it. If Pick 14 + 15 didn't meet the initial bid in points, then they'd just have to keep packaging their Picks until they did match the points amount.

Cheers. So on face value we'd most certainly have to give a later pick over, a third or so, to match what they'd otherwise get in order to make them think about it.

I think in this hypothetical trade they'd be doing us a favor TBH.

And if we are about to raid them further then I can't see them agreeing to it. Maybe we could be clever and tie it all in to the Patton trade somehow - though it would end up being such a convoluted trade in the end.

 

[Brant]

Cheers. So on face value we'd most certainly have to give a later pick over, a third or so, to match what they'd otherwise get in order to make them think about it.

I think in this hypothetical trade they'd be doing us a favor TBH.

And if we are about to raid them further then I can't see them agreeing to it. Maybe we could be clever and tie it all in to the Patton trade somehow - though it would end up being such a convoluted trade in the end.

They need a Ruckman.

Know any 28yr old Ruckmen chasing opportunity as a 1st Ruck instead of playing in another guy's shadow for the rest of his career?


And don't forget that they won't want < Insert Ruckman Here > via Free Agency or it will dilute their Compo pick they receive for Coniglio

 

[Judd2Sewell]

They need a Ruckman.

Know any 28yr old Ruckmen chasing opportunity as a 1st Ruck instead of playing in another guy's shadow for the rest of his career?

He's a FA though right? We could threaten to match I guess. Damn this hypothetical could actually work, but it's got so many layers.

 

[Brant]

He's a FA though right? We could threaten to match I guess. Damn this hypothetical could actually work, but it's got so many layers.

Ceglar is only a FA if he wants to walk out. There's no rule that says he can't be traded out if a club wants to trade for him & he gets to go to the club of his choice on his contract terms.

If he wanted 1st Ruck Opportunity with a side well & truly in their window, he's gotta go to GWS. How he gets there doesn't matter to him.

 

[MasterSamurai]

The way the article is written, it almost suggests that IF Cogs decides he wants to move the Giants will be matching the offer and a trade will need to occur is my take on Dickos article.

Then we have no choice but give up on miles!!!!

 

[Brant]

He's a FA though right? We could threaten to match I guess. Damn this hypothetical could actually work, but it's got so many layers.

Yup, it's layered like a mofo... But here goes:

We get Cogs via FA & they don't match.

We end up 14th & get Pick 5.

They end up 5th & get Pick 14 & Pick 15 in compo acc.: Cogs. Remember, they also hold Pick 10 from the Scum (3x 1sts all up).

As it stands, their 1st Pick (10, from Scum) will not be early enough to get Greene on its own, so they'll match & their 1st Pick (Pick 10) will go on Greene - but it won't be enough so their Pick 14 will be compromised & will also go on Greene. That's 2x 1sts on their own Academy Pick, but leaves them another 1st (Pick 15) to shop with.

They'd be much better off getting hold of a pick before Greene & using that on a player, then using as many later picks on Greene as they can (they don't have a 2nd at this stage).



Our Pick 5 + Ceglar for their Pick 14 + 15 (Cogs), leaving them Pick 5 & Pick 10 + Pick 50 for Greene.
We trade Isaac Smith + Pick 48 to Melbourne for Pick 21 + Pick 57

We get Cogs as a FA
We trade Pick 14 + Pick 57 for Brad Hill + Hugh Dixon from fremantle
We use Pick 24(ish) on Finn Maginness

We retain Pick 15 for the DRAFT or use it at Trade if something crazy good becomes available.

I just don't know how we also get hold of Karl Amon, who will likely also cost a 2nd... Pick 15 for Karl Amon + Pick 30? Doesn't seem quite right...

In.................................Out

Cogs...........................Smitty
Hill.............................Ceglar
Dixon..........................Pick 5
Maginness....................Pick 24
Pick 15........................Pick 48
...................................Pick 57

 

[MasterSamurai]

Yup, it's layered like a mofo... But here goes:

We get Cogs via FA & they don't match.

We end up 14th & get Pick 5.

They end up 5th & get Pick 14 & Pick 15 in compo acc.: Cogs. Remember, they also hold Pick 10 from the Scum (3x 1sts all up).

As it stands, their 1st Pick (10, from Scum) will not be early enough to get Greene on its own, so they'll match & their 1st Pick (Pick 10) will go on Greene - but it won't be enough so their Pick 14 will be compromised & will also go on Greene. That's 2x 1sts on their own Academy Pick, but leaves them another 1st (Pick 15) to shop with.

They'd be much better off getting hold of a pick before Greene & using that on a player, then using as many later picks on Greene as they can (they don't have a 2nd at this stage).



Our Pick 5 + Ceglar for their Pick 14 + 15 (Cogs), leaving them Pick 5 & Pick 10 + Pick 50 for Greene.
We trade Isaac Smith + Pick 48 to Melbourne for Pick 21 + Pick 57

We get Cogs as a FA
We trade Pick 14 + Pick 57 for Brad Hill + Hugh Dixon from fremantle
We use Pick 24(ish) on Finn Maginness

We retain Pick 15 for the DRAFT or use it at Trade if something crazy good becomes available.

I just don't know how we also get hold of Karl Amon, who will likely also cost a 2nd... Pick 15 for Karl Amon + Pick 30? Doesn't seem quite right...

In.................................Out

Cogs...........................Smitty
Hill.............................Ceglar
Dixon..........................Pick 5
Maginness....................Pick 24
Pick 15........................Pick 48
...................................Pick 57

Dude,

 

[Kinghts 24]

Given we're in the land of 'hypotheticals'......

There's a scenario where Coniglio goes to Carlton (or stays put) and Hill lands at the Saints.

What we do know is that we'll bring in Patton and Maginness and then....

I get a sense that it will unfold like last year when we were all punting on Lynch (insert Cogs) or Shiel (insert Hill) and they land elsewhere, and then from nowhere came Wingard and Scully.

Will be very interesting to see who pops up (Wingard stye) that the Hawks chase as a 'Plan B' based on missing Coniglio and Hill.

In the above scenario, i'd be very happy to go hard at this year's draft and try and find a way to Anderson or Rowell. The 2004 draft of 3 x first rounders would be a good outcome IMO.