Certified Legendary Thread The Squiggle is back in 2023 (and other analytics)

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Squiggle tips Tigers to beat Brisbane this week and Geelong to beat Carlton, yet Brisbane play Richmond in it's finals projection in week one. Squiggle is drunk.
IF Squiggle is right on both tips, THEN Brisbane won't finish top.

But if either tip is wrong, the Lions will finish top. They will also finish top if both tips are wrong. So that is more likely.
 

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IF Squiggle is right on both tips, THEN Brisbane won't finish top.

But if either tip is wrong, the Lions will finish top. They will also finish top if both tips are wrong. So that is more likely.

So Squiggle having an each way bet against itself? Even when it's wrong it's right.

730734
 
So Squiggle having an each way bet against itself? Even when it's wrong it's right.

View attachment 730734
Yes, it's answering different questions, which means you can get seemingly contradictory answers!

Q1. Will the Tigers beat Brisbane? Squiggle thinks yes with 60% confidence.
Q2. Will Geelong beat Carlton? Squiggle thinks yes with 80% confidence.
Q3. Will both of those things happen? Well now it's a multi, and 0.60 x 0.80 is 0.48, so that's a no with 52% confidence.
 
There has been a lot *sigh* of discussion on the Contenders/Pretenders thread (and a few others ones *sigh*) about Richmond playing so much at the MCG heading into the finals. There are a certain number of Tiger posters who consider playing away games at the MCG don't count and, that whenever they play a fellow MCG tenant (or partial tenant) there that it is a neutral game ie no home ground advantage for their 'home' game as opposed to a 'true home game advantage' at eg Optus or the Gabba.

My question is this (yes there was one coming) - I don't know how to look at the tips historically to see the HGA value listed (ie it is 9.1 HGA when the Lions come to play on Sunday) for when they are playing against Melbourne, Collingwood etc (or when West Coast play Freo/ Port play Adelaide etc). Does it always have HGA 0.0 or is it still considered a factor?
 
There has been a lot *sigh* of discussion on the Contenders/Pretenders thread (and a few others ones *sigh*) about Richmond playing so much at the MCG heading into the finals. There are a certain number of Tiger posters who consider playing away games at the MCG don't count and, that whenever they play a fellow MCG tenant (or partial tenant) there that it is a neutral game ie no home ground advantage for their 'home' game as opposed to a 'true home game advantage' at eg Optus or the Gabba.

My question is this (yes there was one coming) - I don't know how to look at the tips historically to see the HGA value listed (ie it is 9.1 HGA when the Lions come to play on Sunday) for when they are playing against Melbourne, Collingwood etc (or when West Coast play Freo/ Port play Adelaide etc). Does it always have HGA 0.0 or is it still considered a factor?
It’s based purely on number of games played there over a certain period (don’t know what that period is exactly). Would come pretty damn close to zero when two tenants meet I’d say. Last night was +1.7pts to Collingwood and Essendon play most home games at Etihad.
 

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You could say this is the 'Squiggle chickens coming home to roost' for the Eagles. Squiggle hasn't rated West Coast for months now but they looked set to give themselves every chance to win the flag with two home finals and a good recent record at the MCG. That's now going to be much more difficult.
 
Collingwood +19 v Essendon
Sydney +12 v St Kilda
North Melbourne +30 v Melbourne
Geelong +20 v Carlton
Gold Coast v GWS +26
West Coast +13 v Hawthorn
Western Bulldogs +40 v Adelaide
Richmond v Brisbane +2
Port Adelaide +27 v Fremantle

7/9, 125/198

1. Brisbane 23.6
2. Western Bulldogs 22.6
3. Richmond 20.8
4. Geelong 20.0 (+1)
5. Hawthorn 18.8 (+1)
6. North Melbourne 8.5 (+1)
7. West Coast 7.8 (-3)
8. Collingwood 6.4
9. Port Adelaide 2.9
10. Sydney 0.6
11. GWS -0.7 (+1)
12. Essendon -11.0 (+1)
13. Carlton -12.8 (-2)
14. Adelaide -13.9 (+1)
15. Fremantle -16.4 (+1)
16. Melbourne -17.3 (+1)
17. St Kilda-17.8 (-3)
18. Gold Coast -46.5

Geelong +14 v Collingwood
West Coast +28 v Essendon
GWS v Western Bulldogs +18
Brisbane +9 v Richmond

Three tips are easy on form. The algorithm would tip Richmond in Melbourne, but in Brisbane this weeks result rates to be reversed.
 
After the home & away season, what is the lowest rank on the flagpole that a team has come from to become premiers?
 
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