Certified Legendary Thread The Squiggle is back in 2023 (and other analytics)

[iBeng]

Rhyse Palmer won the rising star once.

So did Lewis Taylor and he isn't best 22 anymore

 

[HTT]

I ran one - ONE sliding doors without rewriting history

This happened
Link to this Alternate Reality
The Bulldogs finish 8th
Wk 1: def Richmond by 56
Wk 2: def Collingwood by 70
Wk 3: def Brisbane by 71
Wk 4: def West Coast by 12

 

[BEaston]

I ran one - ONE sliding doors without rewriting history

This happened
Link to this Alternate Reality
The Bulldogs finish 8th
Wk 1: def Richmond by 56
Wk 2: def Collingwood by 70
Wk 3: def Brisbane by 71
Wk 4: def West Coast by 12

anyone else hard?

 

[brabs]

anyone else hard?

Like, rock hard?

 

[Hobbes]

GWS +15 v Hawthorn
Melbourne v Collingwood +12
Port Adelaide +21 v Sydney
Brisbane +64 v Gold Coast
Essendon v Western Bulldogs +8
Geelong v North Melbourne +8
St Kilda +10 v Fremantle
Richmond +24 v Carlton
West Coast +40 v Adelaide

7/9, 113/180

1. Brisbane 27.2
2. Richmond 19.0 (+1)
3. West Coast 15.9 (-1)
4. Wewstern Bulldogs 14.9 (+3)
5. Geelong 11.1 (+3)
6. Hawthorn 9.6 (+3)
7. Port Adelaide 9.1 (-1)
8. North Melbourne 0.2 (-3)
9. Collingwood 0.01 (+1)
10. GWS -0.5 (-6)
11. Adelaide -2.8 (+2)
12. Carlton -6.1
13. Fremantle -8.3 (+2)
14. St Kilda -10.0 (+3)
15. Sydney -11.1 (-1)
16. Melbourne -11.7
17. Essendon -16.6 (-6)
18. Gold Coast -42.9

Carnage for big losers like North, GWS and Essendon. Gold Coast might be the worst team I've ever recorded.

Melbourne +4 v Sydney
Carlton +4 v St Kilda
Brisbane +22 v Geelong
Adelaide +3 v Collingwood
North Melbourne v Port Adelaide +3
Fremantle +17 v Essendon
Richmond +12 v West Coast
GWS v Western Bulldogs +10
Hawthorn +58 v Gold Coast

 

[HTT]

We are just over a week from the ladder being decided and 5 teams have a greater than 50% chance of making top 4

 

[ajdude]

squiggle has peaked

 

[treefingers]

squiggle has peaked

I reckon I would die with laughter if this happened

 

[ajdude]

I reckon I would die with laughter if this happened

it’d probably be the best premiership in history haha.

 

[cryptor]

squiggle has peaked

If it would make you feel better that would be an incredibly stressful month for Hawk supporters. I’m sure we’d lose a few thousand to heart attacks and nervous breakdowns.

 

[HTT]

Final Siren how accurate would a premier prediction be if you simulated the finals however many times and found how often each team won?

 

[JohnZ]

If it would make you feel better that would be an incredibly stressful month for Hawk supporters. I’m sure we’d lose a few thousand to heart attacks and nervous breakdowns.

Prelim Final to rival 2013.

 

[ajdude]

If it would make you feel better that would be an incredibly stressful month for Hawk supporters. I’m sure we’d lose a few thousand to heart attacks and nervous breakdowns.

yeah i reckon, four weeks of sudden death with those scorelines hahaha

 

[SuperSub17]

There’s a bit of a bug there - squiggle is giving Hawthorn 11.42 wins and somehow rounding that up to 12. There’s no chance Collingwood plays Hawthorn if we beat Essendon.

 

[Chaisa]

There’s a bit of a bug there - squiggle is giving Hawthorn 11.42 wins and somehow rounding that up to 12. There’s no chance Collingwood plays Hawthorn if we beat Essendon.

Massive bug when you consider they're currently on 10 not 11 wins.....

 

[Xtreme]

squiggle has peaked

I said Hawthorn would win the flag from 8th position back in 2015........

I'm a few years late but here we go!

(jokes people!!)

 

[Hobbes]

Melbourne +4 v Sydney
Carlton +4 v St Kilda
Brisbane +22 v Geelong
Adelaide +3 v Collingwood
North Melbourne v Port Adelaide +3
Fremantle +17 v Essendon
Richmond +12 v West Coast
GWS v Western Bulldogs +10
Hawthorn +58 v Gold Coast

5/9, 118/189. Somewhat embarrassing that all four the algorithm got wrong were massive blowouts.

1. Brisbane 25.7
2. Western Bulldogs 22.2 (+2)
3. Richmond 17.5 (-1)
4. West coast 15.7 (-1)
5. Geelong 14.2
6. Hawthorn 11.6
7. North Melbourne 11.0 (+1)
8. Collingwood 8.4 (+1)
9. Port Adelaide -0.3 (-2)
10. Sydney -5.2 (+5)
11. Carlton -6.1 (+1)
12. GWS -6.9 (-2)
13. Essendon -10.7 (+4)
14. St Kilda -12.1
15. Adelaide -12.2 (-4)
16. Fremantle -14.3 (-3)
17. Melbourne -19.4 (-1)
18. Gold Coast -42.0

Bulldogs looking like a real contender now that they might sneak into the finals. Some finals teams and contenders (GWS, Essendon, Adelaide) are woefully out of form, and some teams who won't make it (North, perhaps Hawthorn) are looking good.

Collingwood +19 v Essendon
Sydney +12 v St Kilda
North Melbourne +30 v Melbourne
Geelong +20 v Carlton
Gold Coast v GWS +26
West Coast +13 v Hawthorn
Western Bulldogs +40 v Adelaide
Richmond v Brisbane +2
Port Adelaide +27 v Fremantle

 

[Crankyhawk]

It is possible that Squiggle needs recalibrating. It's sensitive to very low scores, and was calibrated against years where the average score was around 90 pts. This year we're down to 80 pts, which is a massive drop-off. It means that what used to be a freakishly low score may now be only a very unusual low score, and if so, Squiggle shouldn't react so dramatically to it.

Maybe also re look at the goals and points (currently 4 for goal and 3 for behind I think?)

 

[Final Siren]

squiggle has peaked

lol! Aside from the massive over-rating of Hawthorn, I think things can get a bit wacky when it's mid-round and Squiggle is trying to project from an in-progress game. I'm not usually at my PC, so I never see this happening, but occasionally people post screenies like this.

 

[Final Siren]

Maybe also re look at the goals and points (currently 4 for goal and 3 for behind I think?)

Those are dead right.

 

[Final Siren]

Final Siren how accurate would a premier prediction be if you simulated the finals however many times and found how often each team won?

Roughly as accurate as going by the bookies' odds. Maybe a bit less, since that area is less well-explored by models than individual game tips.

It's hard to predict the premier well in advance. This year it's even more challenging than usual, because the top 8 is so even.

We're getting into the part of the season where models lose much of their primary advantage over humans, which is their ability to weigh lots of competing data. They can track how well 18 teams have been going over the last two months better than you can, but once we whittle it down to 8/6/4/2 teams, who are playing fewer games, it's easier for a human to stay across, and consider factors that models don't know about.

 

[ajdude]

lol! Aside from the massive over-rating of Hawthorn, I think things can get a bit wacky when it's mid-round and Squiggle is trying to project from an in-progress game. I'm not usually at my PC, so I never see this happening, but occasionally people post screenies like this.

haha yeah i think this was at half time on sunday when they were up 67-17 or whatever.

 

[pendlebury_10]

Why have the Hawks received such a boost to their Def rating after pumping a hapless Gold Coast?

 

[Hawkk]

Why have the Hawks received such a boost to their Def rating after pumping a hapless Gold Coast?

The big boost actually occurred after the Giants win

 

[Crankyhawk]

Hawks went backwards after GC game