Rumour GFC 2020 Player Trading, Drafting FA, Rumours and Wish lists

[Turbocat]

G’day guys,

Came to ask if there’d be any interest in Rhys Mathieson in these here parts, and read the last two pages to get the lay of the land.

If you don’t mind a couple of neutral comments.

From what I have read (mostly Caro and Niall from The Age, and Twomey on afl.com), both the salary cap, soft cap and list sizes will be cut for season 2021.

Figures I’ve read are salary cap possibly to drop from $13 mil to $10 mil.

Soft cap for off field staff to become a hard cap around the $6 mil figure.

List size to be reduced to 40 for 2021, with a gradual decrease to 35 players by 2023.


I’m not sure what has been discussed further back.

Something else I’ve heard from a podcast, where playing lists were analysed. Across the league, on average 31 players per list, play 95% of all games. The remaining 5% of games is played by the other 13 players on the list.


Anyway, back to Rhys Mathieson, would you guys have any interest in a hometown lad?

There is going to be some 'blood' if we have to reduce lists by 5 players or more. Lets say 90 odd players to reduce lists ..then if every club has to draft players perhaps another 50. And as you have said..perhaps the same the following year.
I suspect the lower levels will have a lot more players like RM in the next couple of years, some will get another chance, some might not. Till we have a firm idea on numbers and dollars its going to be hard to talk player recruitment, especially if they are not obviously best22. On talent I think RM he might struggle to get a game in our side atm but he does have grit as a player.

 

[Johnny Cattery]

There is going to be some 'blood' if we have to reduce lists by 5 players or more. Lets say 90 odd players to reduce lists ..then if every club has to draft players perhaps another 50. And as you have said..perhaps the same the following year.
I suspect the lower levels will have a lot more players like RM in the next couple of years, some will get another chance, some might not. Till we have a firm idea on numbers and dollars its going to be hard to talk player recruitment, especially if they are not obviously best22. On talent I think RM he might struggle to get a game in our side atm but he does have grit as a player.

Don't want Mathieson. (Wouldn't mind his mate Parish.)

Reading between the lines of a little report in the Age from the Cook committee - blue sky thinking on the comp for the next five years - the terms were a list "fewer than 40"; complete overhaul of "pathways"/ second tier comp, the latter becoming more important with reduced list size; players' mental health and reduced expectations at clubs, including less time spent there by players (a consequence of few coaches).

It is hard to see how we avoid cutting 10/11 players, given we have at least three very good picks and would want to take those to the draft. Of course, postponing the draft/lifting the age would make those cuts a bit less drastic as clubs would not have to make room for three draftees.

If the Cats go strongly for youth - and I hope they do, not only because we have been age top heavy for a long time, but because it's even more a running game - then it's not only those known to be due for retirement but the next tier age wise who will be having pressure put on them ...

We can fairly easily see the first half dozen, taken from the top and the bottom of the list age-wise. The next half dozen - if that is the number that does end up having to be cut - are going to take some pretty brutal decisions about very well credentialled older players v. untried late picks.

 

[Johnny Cattery]

4​	Ablett, Gary	346​	35yr 11mth	14 May 1984	182cm​	87kg​	Geelong Falcons	Forward
7​	Taylor, Harry	262​	33yr 10mth	12 Jun 1986	195cm​	94kg​	East Fremantle	Defender
14​	Selwood, Joel	296​	31yr 10mth	26 May 1988	183cm​	84kg​	Bendigo	Midfield
26​	Hawkins, Tom	257​	31yr 8mth	21 Jul 1988	198cm​	103kg​	Melbourne Grammar	Forward
11​	Jenkins, Josh	147​	31yr 2mth	8 Feb 1989	200cm​	108kg​	Frankston	Forward
2​	Tuohy, Zach	187​	30yr 4mth	10 Dec 1989	187cm​	93kg​	County Laois, Ireland	Defender
25​	Henderson, Lachlan R	171​	30yr 4mth	14 Dec 1989	196cm​	98kg​	Geelong Falcons	Defender
9​	Steven, Jack	183​	30yr	28 Mar 1990	180cm​	83kg​	Geelong Falcons	Midfield Forward
35​	Dangerfield, Patrick

Here are our 30 and over players, from footywire. For mine, just on pure numbers the club won't want more than three of those are still on the list in 2021 or we will virtually wipe out our younger generations if we are only allowed 38 players and in fact it's 35 because we need to make space for draftees. maybe the club does the right thing and elevates Brownless. Maybe, as was mentioned in passing on Footy Classified as a possibility, they delist him.

It might sound crazy, but I am a bit sick of Dangerfield doing a spectacular burst, going missing for 40 minutes, then coming back on to miss a shot at goal. Maybe it's time for him to spend serious time practicing his goal kicking, or to have his spot taken by a draftee so he can go full time at being the next Demetriou?

One effect of the shutdown is the effect on players with "numbers of games" benchmarks in their contracts. For example, we can imagine this might be the case for Steven and Jacobs. Interesting times ahead ... Wells is going to be earning his salary...

 

[CatToTheFuture]

4​	Ablett, Gary	346​	35yr 11mth	14 May 1984	182cm​	87kg​	Geelong Falcons	Forward
7​	Taylor, Harry	262​	33yr 10mth	12 Jun 1986	195cm​	94kg​	East Fremantle	Defender
14​	Selwood, Joel	296​	31yr 10mth	26 May 1988	183cm​	84kg​	Bendigo	Midfield
26​	Hawkins, Tom	257​	31yr 8mth	21 Jul 1988	198cm​	103kg​	Melbourne Grammar	Forward
11​	Jenkins, Josh	147​	31yr 2mth	8 Feb 1989	200cm​	108kg​	Frankston	Forward
2​	Tuohy, Zach	187​	30yr 4mth	10 Dec 1989	187cm​	93kg​	County Laois, Ireland	Defender
25​	Henderson, Lachlan R	171​	30yr 4mth	14 Dec 1989	196cm​	98kg​	Geelong Falcons	Defender
9​	Steven, Jack	183​	30yr	28 Mar 1990	180cm​	83kg​	Geelong Falcons	Midfield Forward
35​	Dangerfield, Patrick

Here are our 30 and over players, from footywire. For mine, just on pure numbers the club won't want more than three of those are still on the list in 2021 or we will virtually wipe out our younger generations if we are only allowed 38 players and in fact it's 35 because we need to make space for draftees. maybe the club does the right thing and elevates Brownless. Maybe, as was mentioned in passing on Footy Classified as a possibility, they delist him.

It might sound crazy, but I am a bit sick of Dangerfield doing a spectacular burst, going missing for 40 minutes, then coming back on to miss a shot at goal. Maybe it's time for him to spend serious time practicing his goal kicking, or to have his spot taken by a draftee so he can go full time at being the next Demetriou?

One effect of the shutdown is the effect on players with "numbers of games" benchmarks in their contracts. For example, we can imagine this might be the case for Steven and Jacobs. Interesting times ahead ... Wells is going to be earning his salary...

In 2021 I'd be thinking Ablett and Taylor not being there but I think the vast bulk of the rest can come from younger players who aren't in the next premiership side anyway.

I can't see players traded in at the cats. Free agents and DFA sure, and there will be a lot of DFA. Good time to turn over the list over as we can take those next 18 depth and development players and compare to the kids dropped at other clubs. But trading away picks I don't see happening with our list demographics

 

[Johnny Cattery]

In 2021 I'd be thinking Ablett and Taylor not being there but I think the vast bulk of the rest can come from younger players who aren't in the next premiership side anyway.

I can't see players traded in at the cats. Free agents and DFA sure, and there will be a lot of DFA. Good time to turn over the list over as we can take those next 18 depth and development players and compare to the kids dropped at other clubs. But trading away picks I don't see happening with our list demographics

I think it's incredibly unlikely we trade in - it already puts pressure on cohesion, and in a time when a quarter of your list is being forced out that pressure increases.

But also pressure on the likes of Tuohy, Henderson, Jenkins, Steven, as well as Ablett and Taylor (the retirement of the latter two I take as given, and given Henderson only has a rookie spot, I don't think being a KPD will save him). I think the message to the older players will be, if you're not head and shoulders above the younger player, it's time to move on.

Among our younger players, the question is are the ones who have never played going to be given a chance? Excluding this year's crop of draftees (who have 2-year contracts): Jarvis, Kreuger, Brownless, Kennerly, Tarca, Schlensog, Okunbor. You can't just sweep them all away on the basis of age, or you end up with the kind of demographic hole that it cost us so much to fill a few years ago (with S. Selwood, Henderson, Danger and ... one other ... Tuohy?).

I doubt very much that the club will just dump all its untried players. But keeping at least 2 or 3 of them will put some pressure on fringe players, like Parsons, Simpson, Z. Guthrie. I can get to seven or eight spots, but finding ten or eleven is a lot harder.

 

[briztoon]

Don't rate Rhys the beast.

I believe he’ll be a victim of our list squeeze.

I rate him, and would have him ahead of a few on our list. But he’s out of contract at the end of 2021, where as some I’d have him ahead of, are contracted beyond 2021.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

I think it's incredibly unlikely we trade in - it already puts pressure on cohesion, and in a time when a quarter of your list is being forced out that pressure increases.

But also pressure on the likes of Tuohy, Henderson, Jenkins, Steven, as well as Ablett and Taylor (the retirement of the latter two I take as given, and given Henderson only has a rookie spot, I don't think being a KPD will save him). I think the message to the older players will be, if you're not head and shoulders above the younger player, it's time to move on.

Among our younger players, the question is are the ones who have never played going to be given a chance? Excluding this year's crop of draftees (who have 2-year contracts): Jarvis, Kreuger, Brownless, Kennerly, Tarca, Schlensog, Okunbor. You can't just sweep them all away on the basis of age, or you end up with the kind of demographic hole that it cost us so much to fill a few years ago (with S. Selwood, Henderson, Danger and ... one other ... Tuohy?).

I doubt very much that the club will just dump all its untried players. But keeping at least 2 or 3 of them will put some pressure on fringe players, like Parsons, Simpson, Z. Guthrie. I can get to seven or eight spots, but finding ten or eleven is a lot harder.

Parsons, Zuthrie, Simpson have to be gone surely. Tarca also and I feel that under the circumstances Kennerley and Jarvis probably don't seem to be adding anything. I feel we could drop to a 35 player list, still draft 3 and not lose a great deal of depth

 

[rocker_oz33]

Kennerley fairly high pick for us.
Yet he's shown sweet FUUU all.

Not a good selection.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Kennerley fairly high pick for us.
Yet he's shown sweet FUUU all.

Not a good selection.

Kennerley a high pick? What?

 

[rocker_oz33]

Kennerley a high pick? What?

I thought he was higher than what he was.

Whoops .

Still he done nothing .

Can't polish a turd.

 

[calder_daddy]

I thought he was higher than what he was.

Whoops .

Still he done nothing .

Can't polish a turd.

He’s had 2 years in the system this being his 3rd and got a game in our PS games.
Bloody hell you must be hard to please

 

[cats_09]

I thought he was higher than what he was.

Whoops .

Still he done nothing .

Can't polish a turd.

Just to check, we are talking about Jacob Kennerley the #50 draft pick in the 2018 draft, meaning a kid who is in his second year of AFL?

Miers taken at #57, Narkle taken at #60 must have smashed it out of the park from when they first arrived at the club - or did we maybe give later pick players a chance to develop once they have arrived at the club to see how they went before writing them off after just their second pre-season?

 

[CatToTheFuture]

I thought he was higher than what he was.

Whoops .

Still he done nothing .

Can't polish a turd.

Yeah, I don't think he won't improve but the reasons for him being drafted late haven't gone away, primarily that he can only play on the outside. He still has the attribute that got him drafted though - gut running ability. Is it enough to give him another year? With shortened lists I'd say no

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Just to check, we are talking about Jacob Kennerley the #50 draft pick in the 2018 draft, meaning a kid who is in his second year of AFL?

Miers taken at #57, Narkle taken at #60 must have smashed it out of the park from when they first arrived at the club - or did we maybe give later pick players a chance to develop once they have arrived at the club to see how they went before writing them off after just their second pre-season?

We have done this in the past, and Kennerley isn't the worst candidate, but if lists are reduced I can't see how we can take long investments in rough shots and Jacob may be the one to mid out here. I guess we'll see what number of players w are allowed to keep

 

[Turbocat]

Just to check, we are talking about Jacob Kennerley the #50 draft pick in the 2018 draft, meaning a kid who is in his second year of AFL?

Miers taken at #57, Narkle taken at #60 must have smashed it out of the park from when they first arrived at the club - or did we maybe give later pick players a chance to develop once they have arrived at the club to see how they went before writing them off after just their second pre-season?

Yep.

I had a similar thought.. all the early noise from the club said Ken might have pushed into the best22 group of 30 or so ..his running had him at the front most of the pre season.

I will say it can be frustrating for some having to be patient and get only gradual improvement , one could see it in some comments about CStephens. Probably compounded by the departure of one player who we drafted and came in and made an instant impact. We all love to see hot kids dripping with talent but I think there is something warming about kids who build. My fear now is if we reduce list sizes some of the slow burn warming type players my get pushed out. I think its too early to know if Kenn will make it but what we do know if you cant run you are basically an anachronism these days.. and as you have pointed out two of our most 'talented' players come from late picks that were not instant additions. A late pick doesnt alway mean a lack of talent, more likely a chink or a weakness, perhaps just an under developed body.... an a quiet Y1 hard means your career is defined. How many games did guys like Enright play early.

 

[Hamingja]

We traded out all our middle of the range picks for this year didn't we to get Taheny.

So we are only left with our 3 good picks.

If they reduced the lists from 38 to 35 that is only 6 list changes and it would have been a while since we have done less than that anyway.

The late picks from the 18 draft are a little stiff as they don't get a second year to show what they have got but if the club made some decisions on their favourites then they could easily keep all of them anyway.

 

[Turbocat]

We have done this in the past, and Kennerley isn't the worst candidate, but if lists are reduced I can't see how we can take long investments in rough shots and Jacob may be the one to mid out here. I guess we'll see what number of players w are allowed to keep

The AFL may want smaller list but as you point our they best tread like KungFu over rice paper..or they can burn a lot of potential players when he picked up the hot cauldron If they want to wind back list numbers , they may have to absorb it a bit over 2 or 3 years.

 

[Turbocat]

We traded out all our middle of the range picks for this year didn't we to get Taheny.

So we are only left with our 3 good picks.

If they reduced the lists from 38 to 35 that is only 6 list changes and it would have been a while since we have done less than that anyway.

The late picks from the 18 draft are a little stiff as they don't get a second year to show what they have got but if the club made some decisions on their favourites then they could easily keep all of them anyway.

Early days but the picks we traded out might not have been used anyway...and probably would be at least 10 later considering NGA and FS

 

[Johnny Cattery]

Yep.

I had a similar thought.. all the early noise from the club said Ken might have pushed into the best22 group of 30 or so ..his running had him at the front most of the pre season.

I will say I can be frustrating for some having to be patient and get only gradual improvement , one could see it in some comments about CStephens. Probably compounded by the departure of one player who we drafted and came in and made an instant impact. We all love to see hot kids dripping with talent but I think there is something warming about kids who build. My fear now is if we reduce list sizes some of the slow burn warming type players my get pushed out. I think its too early to know if Kenn will make it but what we do know if you cant run you are basically an anachronism these days.. and as you have pointed out two of our most 'talented' players come from late picks that were not instant additions. A late pick doesnt alway mean a lack of talent, more likely a chink or a weakness, perhaps just an under developed body.... an a quiet Y1 hard means your career is defined. How many yegames did guys like Enright play early.

Yes to this. if Wells reckons it takes four years to know exactly what you've got with a player, how can someone sit at their keyboard, or even a few VFL games, and know more?

 

[Pure_Ownage]

We traded out all our middle of the range picks for this year didn't we to get Taheny.

So we are only left with our 3 good picks.

If they reduced the lists from 38 to 35 that is only 6 list changes and it would have been a while since we have done less than that anyway.

The late picks from the 18 draft are a little stiff as they don't get a second year to show what they have got but if the club made some decisions on their favourites then they could easily keep all of them anyway.

we traded our R3 and R4 this year for Taheny which looks like a masterstroke as if there's no u18 this year it will be spec picks at the back end of the draft for most clubs or it may only be a 2 round draft for some clubs. we have 3 r1s plus a R2 so 4 picks inside 40 which is still good.

 

[Johnny Cattery]

We traded out all our middle of the range picks for this year didn't we to get Taheny.

So we are only left with our 3 good picks.

If they reduced the lists from 38 to 35 that is only 6 list changes and it would have been a while since we have done less than that anyway.

The late picks from the 18 draft are a little stiff as they don't get a second year to show what they have got but if the club made some decisions on their favourites then they could easily keep all of them anyway.

Gee I would want to take 24, too ... so we really want to take four picks. Even if lists go to 40, and even the AFL is saying it will be lower, that's ten of our current players who won't be there next year.

 

[Hamingja]

Gee I would want to take 24, too ... so we really want to take four picks. Even if lists go to 40, and even the AFL is saying it will be lower, that's ten of our current players who won't be there next year.

I didn't realise we had that pick still but I think it must be our 2nd rounder so it isn't really going to be 24, if it is based on last year it will be like 35. Anything in the top 40 you need to use though.

 

[Turbocat]

I didn't realise we had that pick still but I think it must be our 2nd rounder so it isn't really going to be 24, if it is based on last year it will be like 35. Anything in the top 40 you need to use though.

those picks atm based on current position.. so one would hope/think it would be later..

 

[CatToTheFuture]

The AFL may want smaller list but as you point our they best tread like KungFu over rice paper..or they can burn a lot of potential players when he picked up the hot cauldron If they want to wind back list numbers , they may have to absorb it a bit over 2 or 3 years.

Better to burn some players than go insolvent. I guess it all depends on the playing list size we end up with. There are hard luck stories every year, this year the luck will be far harder

Yes to this. if Wells reckons it takes four years to know exactly what you've got with a player, how can someone sit at their keyboard, or even a few VFL games, and know more?

I'm not saying Kennerley wouldn't be a good player, I'm saying that we can't have as many development investments on the list with a smaller list.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

we traded our R3 and R4 this year for Taheny which looks like a masterstroke as if there's no u18 this year it will be spec picks at the back end of the draft for most clubs or it may only be a 2 round draft for some clubs. we have 3 r1s plus a R2 so 4 picks inside 40 which is still good.

Not sure wellsy can take credit for this insight. Blind luck his every now and then