Mega Thread Coronavirus & the AFL - Stage 4 Restrictions in Place in Vic - Part 3

[Gralin]

This is part Three.

Part One can be found here -

Mega Thread - Coronavirus & the AFL - season postponed. (Thread part 1 - cont in part 2, link in thread)

This is part 1 of this thread. Continued in Part 2: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/coronavirus-the-afl-season-postponed-part-2.1237935/

www.bigfooty.com

Part Two can be found here -

Mega Thread - Coronavirus & the AFL - season postponed. Part 2 * CONTINUED ABUSE WILL NOT BE TOLERATED *

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/pages/covid-stats-australia/

www.bigfooty.com

Part 4 can be found here:

Mega Thread - Coronavirus & the AFL - Stage 4 Restrictions in Place in Vic - Part 4

This is part Four. Part One can be found here - https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/coronavirus-the-afl-season-postponed.1236651/unread Part Two can be found here -...

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Australian stats page:

Australian Coronavirus Stats

Latest COVID-19 stats from Australia.

www.bigfooty.com

 

[HTT]

Australia sitting at about 1.2% fatality rate, with your chances of infection at 0.62%. CFR will drop under 1% when current cases recover, will end up being closer .3-.5% as new deadly clusters rear their savage heads

Government should immediately pull JobSeeker, reactionary measure that was done out of fear like a lot of decisions regarding the deadly virus.

View attachment 879245

Our current fatality rate is a fraction over 1.5%.
If all remaining cases recover and none die, there will be a fatality rate of 1.4%
To get in your range of 0.3-0.5% we’d need around 13k more cases with 0 deaths.

 

[tige19]

Our current fatality rate is a fraction over 1.5%.
If all remaining cases recover and none die, there will be a fatality rate of 1.4%
To get in your range of 0.3-0.5% we’d need around 13k more cases with 0 deaths.

There’s modelling that there are thousands more who have/had Covid19, Daniel Andrews moving ahead with his testing of shit to gather that type of data.

If there has been 7k cases in 2-3 months, wouldn’t there be 13k over the next 6 months as we see out 2020? I’m probably being conservative.

 

[tige19]

Our current fatality rate is a fraction over 1.5%.
If all remaining cases recover and none die, there will be a fatality rate of 1.4%
To get in your range of 0.3-0.5% we’d need around 13k more cases with 0 deaths.

Not a bad graph showing our comparison with SK, if we are just looking at the raw numbers. Dispels the notion it’s deadly for everyone, and if the experts can be believed there are thousands more who have had the virus who have never reported.

 

[HTT]

There’s modelling that there are thousands more who have/had Covid19, Daniel Andrews moving ahead with his testing of shit to gather that type of data.

If there has been 7k cases in 2-3 months, wouldn’t there be 13k over the next 6 months as we see out 2020? I’m probably being conservative.

I don’t think that’s the case at all, unless we do something stupid like releasing restrictions too quickly. You’d need 55 new cases per day to get to 13k in the rest of the year. We haven’t had that many in a day since this time last month, we are closer to climbing by 55 per week than per day. Thanks to our actions we should be past the worst of it, provided we see it through.
Even if there is another 13k cases, can you seriously see there being 0 deaths? I think it’s grossly unlikely.

 

[tige19]

I don’t think that’s the case at all, unless we do something stupid like releasing restrictions too quickly. You’d need 55 new cases per day to get to 13k in the rest of the year. We haven’t had that many in a day since this time last month, we are closer to climbing by 55 per week than per day. Thanks to our actions we should be past the worst of it, provided we see it through.
Even if there is another 13k cases, can you seriously see there being 0 deaths? I think it’s grossly unlikely.

You’re painting a very good case to open up the country in its entirety.. I like you . Top stuff

 

[HTT]

You’re painting a very good case to open up the country in its entirety.. I like you . Top stuff

I mean if you want 13k more cases we can open up and get it done by September, probably earlier, if you want

 

[Forward Press]

The annual flu kills up to 650k people per year, is that not a public health emergency? Shouldn't we lock down every flu to save lives?

- The flu has vaccines
- The flu has a far lower mortality rate
- The flu is far less contagious than COVID-19
- The flu will kill far less people than COVID-19 this year - this already is the case (and it's only May) in the hardest hit countries like the US, UK, Italy etc etc etc.

 

[LoungeLizard]

The annual flu kills up to 650k people per year, is that not a public health emergency? Shouldn't we lock down every flu to save lives?

You sound like you think we should open everything up and let this run it's course.

650k, would be a blip compared to how many this would kill if the world lifted all restrictions now.

We don't even know yet what this thing does long term.

 

[Kappa]

- The flu has vaccines
- The flu has a far lower mortality rate
- The flu is far less contagious than COVID-19
- The flu will kill far less people than COVID-19 this year - this already is the case (and it's only May) in the hardest hit countries like the US, UK, Italy etc etc etc.

So you're happy to let hundreds of thousands of people die to the flu every year? You don't care about their lives?

 

[Clems Knee]

Not a bad graph showing our comparison with SK, if we are just looking at the raw numbers. Dispels the notion it’s deadly for everyone, and if the experts can be believed there are thousands more who have had the virus who have never reported.

View attachment 879250

The graph tallies with what we have found out.
So Case Fatality Rate is about 1.8% around the world.
Studies in Italy, China and the Uk indicate the Infection Fatality Rate is lower: between 0.7% and 1% of anyone who catches it, depending on the age structure of the population. Higher in developed countries because people live longer, and lower in developing countries because people tend to die young.

You claim there are thousands more that haven’t been reported. That’s not true for Australia. There are likely to be at most a couple of hundred people who have missed the testing, thanks to good contract testing methodology and a lack of community spread. These people would be in Victoria and NSW, where community spread is a thing, but Victoria’s contract tracing and containment is working very well. NSW haven’t been as competent, but compared to most countries of the world, they too are doing okay.

 

[tige19]

The graph tallies with what we have found out.
So Case Fatality Rate is about 1.8% around the world.
Studies in Italy, China and the Uk indicate the Infection Fatality Rate is lower: between 0.7% and 1% of anyone who catches it, depending on the age structure of the population. Higher in developed countries because people live longer, and lower in developing countries because people tend to die young.

You claim there are thousands more that haven’t been reported. That’s not true for Australia. There are likely to be at most a couple of hundred people who have missed the testing, thanks to good contract testing methodology and a lack of community spread. These people would be in Victoria and NSW, where community spread is a thing, but Victoria’s contract tracing and containment is working very well. NSW haven’t been as competent, but compared to most countries of the world, they too are doing okay.

Disagree on multiple fronts.

I personally know of a good half dozen friends who have had flu like symptoms and never got tested, my wife the same, I had a raised fever for a few days and never got tested. Folly to believe that there are not thousands who would have passed on being tested because they don't believe its the killer virus that alarmist do.

 

[tige19]

I mean if you want 13k more cases we can open up and get it done by September, probably earlier, if you want

Opening up is happening so we’ll see what this dreaded “second wave” brings.

 

[Les Malone]

- The flu has vaccines
- The flu has a far lower mortality rate
- The flu is far less contagious than COVID-19
- The flu will kill far less people than COVID-19 this year - this already is the case (and it's only May) in the hardest hit countries like the US, UK, Italy etc etc etc.

what are you on about.

flu kills 650,000 or up to a million per year, bad seasons many more.

the flu does not have a lower mortality rate at all, that depends solely on what studies you read or believe.

.1% or even lower ....

Sunetra Gupta: Covid-19 is on the way out

The author of the Oxford model defends her view that the virus has passed through the UK's population

unherd.com

just yesterday the CDC stated that covid is now really just people to people and you cant really get it from tennis balls or cardboard boxes or plastic milk bottles like was hyped up weeks ago that all the hysterical ninnies bought hook line and sinker

yes, there is a vaccine for the flu which doesn't work 30% of the time and personally i would much rather stay healthy through exercise and diet and build up antibodies to it if i had to

 

[Clems Knee]

Disagree on multiple fronts.

I personally know of a good half dozen friends who have had flu like symptoms and never got tested, my wife the same, I had a raised fever for a few days and never got tested. Folly to believe that there are not thousands who would have passed on being tested because they don't believe its the killer virus that alarmist do.

So you and your friends (I find it very hard to believe you have that many friends) are either a community transmission hotspot and will cause a prolonged period of breakout in your state (in that case a pox on you)
OR
More likely, you had a cold.

Like I said, based on the modelling and testing, there may at most be a few hundred unidentified unrecovered cases in Australia.

I wish Gladys would do her job properly and clamp down on the community transmissions. The rest of Australia is waiting for her.

 

[Les Malone]

Alistair Haimes

@AlistairHaimes
·
3h

Think you know R? Below is R for Sweden and England, calculated from deaths (central line only, no confidence intervals). Last 5 days' data excluded for both countries (subject to update). Which is which? No dates so that I don't trigger lockdown believers.

 

[HTT]

Opening up is happening so we’ll see what this dreaded “second wave” brings.

We’re not opening with the intent of causing a second wave though

 

[Forward Press]

So you're happy to let hundreds of thousands of people die to the flu every year? You don't care about their lives?

 

[bonddm]

Still waiting for a skerrick of evidence from people claiming that winter will automatically trigger a “second wave”. I could provide statistics of the spectacularly low active case numbers amongst the colder municipalities on the mainland, but I’ve already tried that elsewhere and I wish I had a dollar for every ”it’s not winter yet!” I’ve received in response!

I’m worried I also should be bracing for a third wave in springtime, because no doubt by then some will be claiming that ‘coronavirus and hayfever are basically the same thing‘!

 

[FlowersByIrene]

In Western Australia we have 3 active cases. Yet every time a new case is announced on the news they state "a new psotiive result has taken Western Australia's tally up to five hundred and whatever number of total cases" then through murmered teeth they go "with mumble three cough currently being active".

Why continue to keep stating the 'total' case number for any other reaosn that to make this seem like a bigger issue than it is, to justify themselves spending 20minutes per half hour session talking about and to justify the State's tyrannical lockdown laws.

There are literally three kents in WA with the thing and we've only had 500 catch it (with something like 9 deaths) in the entire time its been going on. It's a non-bloody issue in Western Australia.

By all means keep restricitons on incoming travel and forced quarrantine if required, but there is no justification to have any further lockdowns in Western Australia at this time and the Media's fearmongering on this issue is complicit in that

 

[SaintsSeptember]

The graph tallies with what we have found out.
So Case Fatality Rate is about 1.8% around the world.
Studies in Italy, China and the Uk indicate the Infection Fatality Rate is lower: between 0.7% and 1% of anyone who catches it, depending on the age structure of the population. Higher in developed countries because people live longer, and lower in developing countries because people tend to die young.

You claim there are thousands more that haven’t been reported. That’s not true for Australia. There are likely to be at most a couple of hundred people who have missed the testing, thanks to good contract testing methodology and a lack of community spread. These people would be in Victoria and NSW, where community spread is a thing, but Victoria’s contract tracing and containment is working very well. NSW haven’t been as competent, but compared to most countries of the world, they too are doing okay.

I agree that our figures seem to be pretty diligent.
I consider that the original social distancing "no large events, work from home where possible, social distancing in shops and workplaces" had an effect.
The more stringent lockdown implemented just a few days later had a much larger effect, It ensured that the virus that had gotten into the general population ( mostly by idiot travellers who didn't give a crap ) was reduced fast. I don't believe that us "opening up" at the level we are will cause it to take off again.

The aim of social distancing is to stop every case giving it to 2.5 other people.
If they give it to 1 or less the virus dies out.
If a few idiots want to run around and spread it , hopefully the sensible majority will be enough to keep things statistically on track.

Most people won't die from it, but every time it gets into a nursing home it kills around half the residents who catch it.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

In Western Australia we have 3 active cases. Yet every time a new case is announced on the news they state "a new psotiive result has taken Western Australia's tally up to five hundred and whatever number of total cases" then through murmered teeth they go "with mumble three cough currently being active".

Why continue to keep stating the 'total' case number for any other reaosn that to make this seem like a bigger issue than it is, to justify themselves spending 20minutes per half hour session talking about and to justify the State's tyrannical lockdown laws.

There are literally three kents in WA with the thing and we've only had 500 catch it (with something like 9 deaths) in the entire time its been going on. It's a non-bloody issue in Western Australia.

By all means keep restrictions on incoming travel and forced quarrantine if required, but there is no justification to have any further lockdowns in Western Australia at this time and the Media's fearmongering on this issue is complicit in that

Its not just W.A. There are country area's in most states who haven't seen it and probably won't. Its laughable that the arbitrary state borders are used to contain it.
I'd be in favour of localised lockdowns and travel restrictions in areas that have outbreaks.

 

[Monkey King]

the fact that you read and place any weight on the tweet ouevre says more about you quite frankly, evo don't you have the playbook from @AndrewBreitbart which says how Trump was going to <game> the Beltway, do Monkey King a favour and sling him the primer

Mature folk need not play one side, they can be impartial bystanders not ceding territory to the propaganda fourth estate

#fuxsake

Don't insult me with feigned impartiality; you're as transparent as they come. You went straight to the same old ruse I've seen played out by the least impartial supporters of Trump in the States ... criticism of Trump, regardless of validity, invites immediate departure from a rational discussion of the facts to some inapt reference to Hillary Clinton, before moving on to claims that the person speaking the criticism is merely a media bunny incapable of reason.

This amateurish finagling guised in pseudointellectual cant might make you feel clever down at the local, but it doesn't work with me. If you think I don't have my facts right, then correct the facts and provide some credible evidence. Anything less is just diversionary bullshit.

 

[tige19]

So you and your friends (I find it very hard to believe you have that many friends) are either a community transmission hotspot and will cause a prolonged period of breakout in your state (in that case a pox on you)
OR
More likely, you had a cold.

Like I said, based on the modelling and testing, there may at most be a few hundred unidentified unrecovered cases in Australia.

I wish Gladys would do her job properly and clamp down on the community transmissions. The rest of Australia is waiting for her.

Any reason you like to put me down regarding the friends jibe? Not at all nice when I’m being respectful in conversation with you.

 

[tige19]

We’re not opening with the intent of causing a second wave though

Agreed, hoping for the best with some confidence

 

[Roby]

you have bought Neal Ferguson's model holus bolus

Completely strawman. Please be respectful.