Mega Thread Coronavirus & the AFL - Stage 4 Restrictions in Place in Vic - Part 3

[Gralin]

This is part Three.

Part One can be found here -

Mega Thread - Coronavirus & the AFL - season postponed. (Thread part 1 - cont in part 2, link in thread)

This is part 1 of this thread. Continued in Part 2: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/coronavirus-the-afl-season-postponed-part-2.1237935/

www.bigfooty.com

Part Two can be found here -

Mega Thread - Coronavirus & the AFL - season postponed. Part 2 * CONTINUED ABUSE WILL NOT BE TOLERATED *

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/pages/covid-stats-australia/

www.bigfooty.com

Part 4 can be found here:

Mega Thread - Coronavirus & the AFL - Stage 4 Restrictions in Place in Vic - Part 4

This is part Four. Part One can be found here - https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/coronavirus-the-afl-season-postponed.1236651/unread Part Two can be found here -...

www.bigfooty.com

Australian stats page:

Australian Coronavirus Stats

Latest COVID-19 stats from Australia.

www.bigfooty.com

 

[JackOutback]

* CONTINUED ABUSE WILL NOT BE TOLERATED *

What absolute hogwash cherf , hogwash
it's hogwash cherf

I have found FigBooty mostly a good-faith domain for banter and asides. Don't allow moderators, who on the whole do a very good job, unrewarded and underappreciated, but don't let them few spout this claptrap.

It goes without saying, racism abhorrent, I would raise you, seeking to allege incidents as racist when they are not, is equally beyond the pale, don't move the bar to AFL House SJW absurdity

Chief Contra Mundum evo skilts medusala GuruJane Lance Uppercut RussellEbertHandball

Ah, the fallacy that an accusation of racism is akin to actual racism. It’s not, and if one’s argument is not racist, then stand up and defend it. It shouldn’t be difficult.

 

[Mateyman]

except for all the countries that instituted lockdowns and suffered just as badly or worse than sweden. or countries that had much more relaxed policies and hardly suffered at all. new data coming out of america is showing a reduction in r-value in states relaxing lockdowns in comparison to those extending them.

yeah Forward Press i think we'll just have to agree to disagree on this one mate. guess i'm cautious about rebuilding society on some good sounding ideas that may well have some very seriously negative ramifications that may only be knowable many years after the fact. even if immediate results were what was written in the tin.

Yeah you're right, it's really hard to judge the effect of a lockdown. There just aren't any similar countries you could compare Sweden to...
oh wait no there are a bunch of Scandivian countries with essentially the same demographics:

Yep very hard to see the miniscule effect of lockdown

 

[Jupes]

round and round and round we go

 

[blackcat]

Ah, the fallacy that an accusation of racism is akin to actual racism. It’s not, and if one’s argument is not racist, then stand up and defend it. It shouldn’t be difficult.

Which is why I linked old timers in to this post from ~15 years back when was the curator of FigBooty

They all have seen the flux in its chronology

 

[Blackhawk42]

Is Belgium really a country anyway ?.

Iambic beers.

Waffles in vending machines.

Bruges is a pearler of a city.

 

[blackcat]

folks, yey or ney, we can't <control> for the millions of variables MILLIONS that manifest in a State's unique characteristics

 

[blackcat]

Iambic beers.

Waffles in vending machines.

Bruges is a pearler of a city.

Colin Farrell Night In Bruges

 

[blackcat]

Colin Farrell Night In Bruges ✌

Blackhawk42

 

[Clems Knee]

Yeah you're right, it's really hard to judge the effect of a lockdown. There just aren't any similar countries you could compare Sweden to...
oh wait no there are a bunch of Scandivian countries with essentially the same demographics:
View attachment 879205
Yep very hard to see the miniscule effect of lockdown

It's damning isn't it?
Even if there is a second wave in Scandinavia, 1600 Swedes have already had their lives cut short by the time before the second wave comes.
90% or more of the population are still uninfected, so any second wave will be close to as bad for Sweden as it would for the neighbouring countries. But any protection Sweden gets will be countered by the fact that there will be close to ten times as many sources of the virus in the community.

round and round and round we go

The evidence is clear. Sweden chose a poor strategy. This only gets repeated because certain posters ignore the evidence.

 

[bonddm]

Distancing tipped to fuel gridlock unless more cycle, walk or stay home

About 85 per cent of public transport users will have to switch to bicycles, walk or continue to work from home in order to avoid major traffic jams as COVID-19 restrictions ease, according to new research.

www.theage.com.au

Don’t say you weren’t warned. The Institute for Sensible Transport (big following on Facebook - see below) has warned of chaos on our roads unless “85 per cent of public transport users switch to cycling, walking, or keep working from home”.


They are no doubt empathetic to the issues faced by outer suburban residents, themselves being based in the back-blocks of Collingwood.

 

[Roby]

except for all the countries that instituted lockdowns and suffered just as badly or worse than sweden. or countries that had much more relaxed policies and hardly suffered at all. new data coming out of america is showing a reduction in r-value in states relaxing lockdowns in comparison to those extending them.

yeah Forward Press i think we'll just have to agree to disagree on this one mate. guess i'm cautious about rebuilding society on some good sounding ideas that may well have some very seriously negative ramifications that may only be knowable many years after the fact. even if immediate results were what was written in the tin.

Nobody has done worse than Sweden. Nobody.

You see I intuitively understand the nuances of Europe from growing up there and traveling. For example, if Italy didn't fully lockdown, their current numbers would look like a blessing.

Now obviously you haven't been there or I'm guessing any of these countries. I can tell by the way people talk on this forum with their obtuse views stemming from being locked up in a cage of their own nationality were perspective from a different nation's view is limited to the horizon.

And yet sometimes all it takes is a bit of mathematics to the sums.

Now maybe because of the non-travelled mind it doesn't occur for you to look at it but it doesn't take long to figure out.

Only seven countries in the world (all happen to be in Europe) have higher deaths per million than Sweden since the start of the pandemic. But they all have one thing in common above Sweden. (It's also important to note that last week Sweden ranked no.1 in the world for deaths per million).

Deaths per million Covid-19 / population density

San Marino 1209 / 529km²
Belgium 793 / 376km²
Andorra 660 / 164km²
Spain 596 / 91.4km²
Italy 535 / 201km²
UK 526 / 281km²
France 431 / 119km²
Sweden 384 / 25km²

It's not even close. Outside of its own characteristics, population density in the single biggest factor for a pathogen to multiply that is capable of human-to-human transmission.

Population density increaes the chances of mass gatherings, super spreaders and transmission. It also generally has a high influx of tourists and visitors. All this makes epidemics more difficult to control, suppress or trace and adding to its pandemic potential.

Before you say "well pop. density for a whole country doesn't tell the whole story and can be misleading". If you were to say or think that it would show more ignorance as nearly all the countries above Sweden have massive super dense cities in comparison.

Now if you still believe we are going around in circles and it does not provide any insight into why Sweden's strategy is terrible, and why it would be terrible in any country, including Australia or New Zeland...

You see what you want to see. Until you can make a solid counter argument to your own point of view than that is all it will ever be, a point of view.

I know what the counter argument to this is

- economy is preserved more so to a degree
- can sustain this model for months and months
- Herd Immunity will almost completely mitigate secondary outbreaks, spikes, waves
- people's autonomy and freedom are in tact
- people's mental health isn't going to degrade leading to more harm than the virus

You have anything else? The only issue with those arguments is I have yet to see any respected scientific research or published paper in a scientific journal that's supports ANY of those counter arguments. If you can find a recent one please put it foward.

 

[Mateyman]

round and round and round we go

Yeah it's annoying when the evidence doesn't suit your argument

 

[blackcat]

It's damning isn't it?
Even if there is a second wave in Scandinavia, 1600 Swedes have already had their lives cut short by the time before the second wave comes.
90% or more of the population are still uninfected, so any second wave will be close to as bad for Sweden as it would for the neighbouring countries. But any protection Sweden gets will be countered by the fact that there will be close to ten times as many sources of the virus in the community.


The evidence is clear. Sweden chose a poor strategy. This only gets repeated because certain posters ignore the evidence.

You disingenously have formulated there are no trade-offs and the economy can be restarted

The economy has infinite complexity and cannot be switched back on

Like #meds and Buffet would ascribe to, a Schumpeterian lens that this will destroy B.A.D. businesses and capital will find more efficient investment...

see what i did there,. ?

I have you thinking I am a greedy capitalist. Nope, pure George Foreman, rope-a-doped son

There will be immense non-fiduciary costs borne out by everyone in this lock-down, and the 1995-2004 births demi-gen will bear it D.I.S.P.R.O.P.O.R.T.I.O.N.A.T.E.L.Y.

medusala

*somegoodbusinessestoo

 

[blackcat]

Nobody has done worse than Sweden. Nobody.

You see I intuitively understand the nuances of Europe from growing up there and traveling. For example, if Italy didn't fully lockdown, their current numbers would look like a blessing.

Now obviously you haven't been there or I'm guessing any of these countries. I can tell by the way people talk on this forum with their obtuse views stemming from being locked up in a cage of their own nationality were perspective from a different nation's view is limited to the horizon.

And yet sometimes all it takes is a bit of mathematics to the sums.

Now maybe because of the non-travelled mind it doesn't occur for you to look at it but it doesn't take long to figure out.

Only seven countries in the world (all happen to be in Europe) have higher deaths per million than Sweden since the start of the pandemic. But they all have one thing in common above Sweden. (It's also important to note that last week Sweden ranked no.1 in the world for deaths per million).

Deaths per million Covid-19 / population density

San Marino 1209 / 529km²
Belgium 793 / 376km²
Andorra 660 / 164km²
Spain 596 / 91.4km²
Italy 535 / 201km²
UK 526 / 281km²
France 431 / 119km²
Sweden 384 / 25km²

It's not even close. Outside of its own characteristics, population density in the single biggest factor for a pathogen to multiply that is capable of human-to-human transmission.

Population density increaes the chances of mass gatherings, super spreaders and transmission. It also generally has a high influx of tourists and visitors. All this makes epidemics more difficult to control, suppress or trace and adding to its pandemic potential.

Before you say "well pop. density for a whole country doesn't tell the whole story and can be misleading". If you were to say or think that it would show more ignorance as nearly all the countries above Sweden have massive super dense cities in comparison.

Now if you still believe we are going around in circles and it does not provide any insight into why Sweden's strategy is terrible, and why it would be terrible in any country, including Australia or New Zeland...

You see what you want to see. Until you can make a solid counter argument to your own point of view than that is all it will ever be, a point of view.

I know what the counter argument to this is

- economy is preserved more so to a degree
- can sustain this model for months and months
- Herd Immunity will almost completely mitigate secondary outbreaks, spikes, waves
- people's autonomy and freedom are in tact
- people's mental health isn't going to degrade leading to more harm than the virus

You have anything else? The only issue with those arguments is I have yet to see any respected scientific research or published paper in a scientific journal that's supports ANY of those counter arguments. If you can find a recent one please put it foward.

you have bought Neal Ferguson's model holus bolus

 

[FlowersByIrene]

In my opinion AFL house has a lot of fat that needs to be cut. Staff and wages
Clubs need to cut their cloth accordingly in these harsh times. Wages and staff need to be cut at clubs as well

Cut he salaries and get rid of the campaigners trying to change the rules every year for a start

On SM-G981B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[FlowersByIrene]

I'm pro-lockdown but neither unemployed nor introverted.



I realise the irony being a frequent poster on an internet forum.

You must admit though, there are obvious incentives for those who are ordinarily partially employed and are now getting paid more bu the government to stay home and browse ShowPo online.

Definitely a faction of the "its not safe to come out yet" are really just - I'm not ready to get off this superdole yet

On SM-G981B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Forward Press]

You must admit though, there are obvious incentives for those who are ordinarily partially employed and are now getting paid more bu the government to stay home and browse ShowPo online.

Definitely a faction of the "its not safe to come out yet" are really just - I'm not ready to get off this superdole yet

On SM-G981B using BigFooty.com mobile app

Sure. Don't deny there are plenty of 'dole bludgers' who are happy to forgo work because JobSeeker and JobKeeper are fairly generous (which was the point, because the Federal government wants more people to stay at home as they work to bring the pandemic under control). I also think the government shouldn't be steadfast to their September deadline and should be flexible to cut it short - or extend it - depending on how the pandemic goes.

But there are a few posters on BigFooty who admit they own a business adversely affected by the coronavirus measures, or have a job that is in serious peril because of steps taken to battle COVID-19, and have been vocal in their opposition to restrictions, downplaying death tolls and case fatality rates, the futility of buying time, the benefit of herd immunity etc.

It's not a one way street.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Sure. Don't deny there are plenty of 'dole bludgers' who are happy to forgo work because JobSeeker and JobKeeper are fairly generous (which was the point, because the Federal government wants more people to stay at home as they work to bring the pandemic under control). I also think the government shouldn't be steadfast to their September deadline and should be flexible to cut it short - or extend it - depending on how the pandemic goes.

But there are a few posters on BigFooty who admit they own a business adversely affected by the coronavirus measures, or have a job that is in serious peril because of steps taken to battle COVID-19, and have been vocal in their opposition to restrictions, downplaying death tolls and case fatality rates, the futility of buying time, the benefit of herd immunity etc.

It's not a one way street.

Yeah but only if you consider both pursuits to be equally moral. Personally I consider the pursuit of individual advancement to be inherently moral while living off the government to be the opposite. Hence they aren't comparable justifications.

People should be clamouring to get the economy back. Freedom of movement assembly and commerce are fundamental human rights (imo)

On SM-G981B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Forward Press]

Yeah but only if you consider both pursuits to be equally morale. Personally I consider the pursuit of individual advancement to be inherently morale while living off the government to be the opposite. Hence they aren't comparable justifications.

People should be clamouring to get the economy back. Freedom of movement assembly and commerce are fundamental human rights (imo)

On SM-G981B using BigFooty.com mobile app

Conversely, I do sincerely believe in the 'greater good' and that individual freedoms, whilst important and fundamental, must necessarily be compromised in some situations, including public health emergencies. Even Ayn Rand, hero for all libertarians, argued that too.

At the moment, leaders like Premier Mark McGowan in WA have sky high approval ratings (89% at the latest Newspoll I believe) because they have taken a tough stance to prioritise the public health of their residents. I like to think that although people like to earn money, that the vast majority are happy to let their government take radical steps to mitigate the spread of something like this - an incurable, contagious disease that kills.

 

[blackcat]

Cut he salaries and get rid of the campaigners trying to change the rules every year for a start

On SM-G981B using BigFooty.com mobile app

^ #cherf a swearfilter #Fail☝

#politicalcampaignsarejustnotkosher
#butskiltspudendais

the plural of pudendum is just so much more mellifluous innit versus clunky singular ^ no grammar nor punctuation

skilts

 

[Stocks_go_Up]

Yeah you're right, it's really hard to judge the effect of a lockdown. There just aren't any similar countries you could compare Sweden to...
oh wait no there are a bunch of Scandivian countries with essentially the same demographics:
View attachment 879205
Yep very hard to see the miniscule effect of lockdown

The impact of the coronavirus cannot simply be measured by its effect on health. Unsurprisingly, Sweden has been less damaged economically. Personal spending in Denmark is down 66 per cent and in Finland it stands at 70 per cent, compared to only 30 per cent in Sweden. Unemployment claims in Norway are rising four times as fast as those in Sweden. The latter’s overall economy is not expected to slump to nearly the same degree as much of Europe.

And then there is the issue of so-called herd immunity. Studies at the weekend suggested between 25-40 per cent of Stockholm may have actually already had the virus. It could be up to 60 per cent by late May. In France, it is currently believed to stand at around six per cent.

You guys think the only factor is death rate - why can't your pea brains accept there is an economic and social impact to the various lockdown measures. If the only factor was reducing death count we may as well all stay locked in side and get home delivery. So simplistically minded it's crazy.

 

[Mateyman]

You guys think the only factor is death rate - why can't your pea brains accept there is an economic and social impact to the various lockdown measures. If the only factor was reducing death count we may as well all stay locked in side and get home delivery. So simplistically minded it's crazy.

You're clearly incapable of reading. I never said anything about the economic impact. I was responding to a post saying "the lockdown doesn't have a significant effect on deaths yada yada yada". Why are you incapable of accepting the demonstrable efficacy of lockdowns for reducing COVID deaths?

As for all the economic benefits...

Sweden unlikely to feel economic benefit of no-lockdown approach | Free to read

Analysts forecast that growth will contract at a similar rate to rest of Europe

www.ft.com

Yeah about that...

Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu | MIT Sloan

The COVID-19 pandemic damages the U.S. and the world economy and puts policymakers in an unfamiliar dilemma. Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as social distancing slow the spread of [...]

gcfp.mit.edu

Oh well probably propaganda from the damned leftist Financial Times and the Fed\MIT .

 

[Kappa]

Conversely, I do sincerely believe in the 'greater good' and that individual freedoms, whilst important and fundamental, must necessarily be compromised in some situations, including public health emergencies. Even Ayn Rand, hero for all libertarians, argued that too.

At the moment, leaders like Premier Mark McGowan in WA have sky high approval ratings (89% at the latest Newspoll I believe) because they have taken a tough stance to prioritise the public health of their residents. I like to think that although people like to earn money, that the vast majority are happy to let their government take radical steps to mitigate the spread of something like this - an incurable, contagious disease that kills.

The annual flu kills up to 650k people per year, is that not a public health emergency? Shouldn't we lock down every flu to save lives?

 

[tige19]

Sure. Don't deny there are plenty of 'dole bludgers' who are happy to forgo work because JobSeeker and JobKeeper are fairly generous (which was the point, because the Federal government wants more people to stay at home as they work to bring the pandemic under control). I also think the government shouldn't be steadfast to their September deadline and should be flexible to cut it short - or extend it - depending on how the pandemic goes.

But there are a few posters on BigFooty who admit they own a business adversely affected by the coronavirus measures, or have a job that is in serious peril because of steps taken to battle COVID-19, and have been vocal in their opposition to restrictions, downplaying death tolls and case fatality rates, the futility of buying time, the benefit of herd immunity etc.

It's not a one way street.

Australia sitting at about 1.2% fatality rate, with your chances of infection at 0.62%. CFR will drop under 1% when current cases recover, will end up being closer .3-.5% as new deadly clusters rear their savage heads

Government should immediately pull JobSeeker, reactionary measure that was done out of fear like a lot of decisions regarding the deadly virus.

 

[rumply]

some of you need a break, you're welcome