The tough thing is the quality they come up against compared to the rest of Australia. A lot of those kids would have relied heavily on a national championships going ahead to see how they play against the very best kids in Australia
Draft Expert Davo-27's 2021 u18 Draft Thread
- Thread starter Davo-27
- Start date
- Tagged users None
RedmanWasHere
Rarely in kitchens at parties.
- Aug 23, 2010
- 26,888
- 29,640
- AFL Club
- Essendon
- Other Teams
- Exers, Gryffindor, Rich+Ess AFLW, Tassie
Neil Erasmus was namechecked by Callum Twomey in his yearly top 10 write-up.
Chaisa
Brownlow Medallist
- Jun 2, 2013
- 14,652
- 14,428
- AFL Club
- Sydney
- Other Teams
- The Exers
Neil Erasmus sounds like the name of some 1980's South African cricketer. lol
- Thread starter
- #29
yea im still shocked he didnt get on a list, i really liked him in 2019 for the Tassie Devils and some good efforts in the TSL, then to prove he has versatility in defence then not get drafted was a real head scratcher, maybe he interviewed poorly which i can see, but still, he has the talent, i guess interviews account for more than we assume it does?, if i were to guess, that may be a reason?.
- Thread starter
- #31
yea but it was his NAB League form moreso than his TSL form that impressed me, he had some good moments in the TSL as well, but c'est la vie
- Aug 9, 2019
- 32,441
- 56,431
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
- Other Teams
- Panthers, GWV Rebels, Central Augusta
Quite a few of the SA lads got drafted off SANFL U18 only/Reserves form this year and in most SANFL U18 teams only a 2 o 3 in each team at best will generally go on to play SANFL League let alone AFL. You don't think TSL League form isn't better than SANFL U18/Reserves form?
- May 29, 2009
- 29,795
- 14,718
- AFL Club
- Carlton
- Other Teams
- LA Lakers
Interviews really well Davo, he’s a great kid. The biggest issue for him this year was not being able to show his ability in the national carnival. If he’d dominated against DGB, Reid, Chapman etc it’d be a different story.
Recruiters don’t really care about TSL form but that’s especially the case for key position players as one of the key things to look out for is who they’re matched up against. With the more outside players (like Walker and Chugg from Tassie) who can still see a bit of what they’ve got such as speed and skill but if a KPP has no one decent to play against as is generally the case in the TSL it’s harder to rate their ability.
That said, I still think he should’ve been picked but I can understand why he wasn’t based on what I know of recruiters thoughts on Tassie football. Callow has next year to prove himself as an U19’s player and I hope he does. The extra year certainly helped Nankervis.
- Thread starter
- #34
Tassie football needs an overhaul, because for a footy state thats 1/3rd the population of S.A. for it to be as bad a level of footy as it is, there needs to be a development overhaul in that state pronto, the AFL could create some quality pathways if its serious about developing more top end talent to grow the talent pool for the AFL.
kickthething
Brownlow Medallist
No doubt he will be closely watched in the first rounds of next year and a real mid-season draft candidate. The way u19s will be gauged next year will be different from other years I sense, particularly for the boys who did not play. With u17s separating, the u/18s in some sense will remain bottom aged players in their draft year, although they will make up the majority of the squads and the draft . Next year there seems to be fewer talls so Callow will certainly be on the radar again you should think.
Last edited:
SSA U15 is much less of an indicator of being drafted then AFL 16’s. Especially here in WA. U15 costs approx $3500 per kid, biaised selections and competing with NGA teams which the boys can travel and play with for free. Of course there are some kids who make AA U15’s and get drafted but I would hazard a guess and say it’s less than half. Maybe you could go back and look at the 2017 U15 AA and see how many were drafted this year? It would be interesting to see.
RedmanWasHere
Rarely in kitchens at parties.
- Aug 23, 2010
- 26,888
- 29,640
- AFL Club
- Essendon
- Other Teams
- Exers, Gryffindor, Rich+Ess AFLW, Tassie
Isaac Chugg was the 11th player from that team to be picked.
From memory:
Riley Thilthorpe.
Will Phillips.
Elijah Hollands.
Tanner Bruhn.
Charlie Lazzaro.
Corey Durdin.
Nick Stevens.
Luke Edwards
James Borlase.
Taj Schofield.
Isaac Chugg.
Not one kid who was drafted from WA this year is on that list. It’s open slather for the WA kids - sSWA AA teams are little indication for the sandgropers.
RedmanWasHere
Rarely in kitchens at parties.
- Aug 23, 2010
- 26,888
- 29,640
- AFL Club
- Essendon
- Other Teams
- Exers, Gryffindor, Rich+Ess AFLW, Tassie
Maybe. He was the only WA player that year who made AA.
It still makes 15 out of the 25 kids chosen as AA’s to not get drafted 3 years later.
The Process of Deciding Rankings
- Thread starter
- #41
i just wanted to explain my way of making my lists and how they change throughout the year, so in 2018 and 2019 i watched games with a blank canvas (not knowing which players were already picked for rep teams or anything), so basically i would watch games and if i liked a player i would add them to my lists(often finding out later that said player was in the WA or SA or VM or VC or Allies teams), this changed for this year and my list for next year as there was no footy and so getting lists of players to keep an eye out for was easier when they had already made state rep teams or the AFL Academy ect(although i did have an extensive list and good idea about the 2020 draft pool from keeping tabs on the underagers in 2019 when i made my list of over 100 players before anyone had even made a top 30 for 2020), i dont know which is better, doing the work from scratch and going a little against the grain OR doing work from a position of knowing most of the talent before seeing them play and then going from there?. Then the next thing i would do is find out their height, weight to add to the posts, as the draft came closer i would check their stats and look at their production in their position and finally i would evaluate their combine results or pre-season testing to see how they fare, although watching them in game is a better way to evaluate speed or agility ect imo, having testing results might indicate future improvement?
so basically its a 4 stage process, 1. watch games to see how good they are(make notes of the top end players and then ignore the rest basically), 2. get information about their physical stature, 3. check on their production related to their position, 4. then check their testing for indications of future improvement and whether they have the endurance to run out games at the AFL level.
i have found out last year that keeping an eye out for players who do well in the u16 champs is a good indication of where the talent is likely to come from in the draft year as a starting point, some dont develop from the u16's so its not an exact science, more a guide.
It usually takes about 5 games to understand what a player is like and what range they should go in the draft, because of variables for example, you could see them play the best game of their lives in the first game you see them play OR you could see their worst game of their lives in the first game you see them play, so you need a sample size to understand their average performance, their highs and lows and thats why players go up and down lists, you are seeing different aspects after each viewing, watching more than 5 games just gives you more information and sometimes if they position change and show they can play in a different position as naturally as their main position it gives them more value in my eyes ect.
Joshua Clarke (Eastern) was a player i really rated in 2019 and it was his production that made me drop him from my lists in 2020 as an example of how a player can be a favourite of mine, but if he doesnt follow it up with production as in disposals, marks, tackles, goals ect, i cant back him in and i dont think AFL clubs will draft him without that production, but good luck to him next year.
so thats how i usually go about my draft scouting, having inside knowledge of most of the players that get drafted is a blessing and a curse, its a blessing when you know your club does well and a curse when you question why your club went in a different more risky direction, but thats about it.
so basically its a 4 stage process, 1. watch games to see how good they are(make notes of the top end players and then ignore the rest basically), 2. get information about their physical stature, 3. check on their production related to their position, 4. then check their testing for indications of future improvement and whether they have the endurance to run out games at the AFL level.
i have found out last year that keeping an eye out for players who do well in the u16 champs is a good indication of where the talent is likely to come from in the draft year as a starting point, some dont develop from the u16's so its not an exact science, more a guide.
It usually takes about 5 games to understand what a player is like and what range they should go in the draft, because of variables for example, you could see them play the best game of their lives in the first game you see them play OR you could see their worst game of their lives in the first game you see them play, so you need a sample size to understand their average performance, their highs and lows and thats why players go up and down lists, you are seeing different aspects after each viewing, watching more than 5 games just gives you more information and sometimes if they position change and show they can play in a different position as naturally as their main position it gives them more value in my eyes ect.
Joshua Clarke (Eastern) was a player i really rated in 2019 and it was his production that made me drop him from my lists in 2020 as an example of how a player can be a favourite of mine, but if he doesnt follow it up with production as in disposals, marks, tackles, goals ect, i cant back him in and i dont think AFL clubs will draft him without that production, but good luck to him next year.
so thats how i usually go about my draft scouting, having inside knowledge of most of the players that get drafted is a blessing and a curse, its a blessing when you know your club does well and a curse when you question why your club went in a different more risky direction, but thats about it.
Last edited:
AFL Academy list is up for next year. Some big names and some new ones. They have moved back to this traditional model - not state based anymore.
Braden Andrews (Vic Metro/Oakleigh Chargers)
Sam Banks (Tasmania/Clarence)
Rhett Bazzo (Western Australia/Swan Districts)
Jace Burgoyne (South Australia/Woodville West Torrens)
Campbell Chesser (Vic Country/Sandringham Dragons)
Nick Daicos (Vic Metro/Oakleigh Chargers)
Josh Fahey (NSW/ACT/GWS Academy)
Cooper Hamilton (Vic Country/Bendigo Pioneers)
Austin Harris (Queensland/Gold Coast Academy)
Ben Hobbs (Vic Country/GWV Rebels)
Jason Horne (South Australia/South Adelaide)
Blake Howes (Vic Metro/Sandringham Dragons)
Matthew Johnson (Western Australia/Subiaco)
Cooper Murley (South Australia/Norwood)
Josh Rachele (Vic Country/Murray Bushrangers)
Matthew Roberts (South Australia/South Adelaide)
Josh Sinn (Vic Metro/Sandringham Dragons)
Tyler Sonsie (Vic Metro/Eastern Ranges)
Ned Stevens (Northern Territory/Waratah/Gold Coast Academy)
Jacob Van Rooyen (Western Australia/Claremont)
Jack Williams (Western Australia/East Fremantle)
- Thread starter
- #43
i much prefer the AFL Australian Academies, Ned Stevens and Jack Williams added to the list to look out for.
RedmanWasHere
Rarely in kitchens at parties.
- Aug 23, 2010
- 26,888
- 29,640
- AFL Club
- Essendon
- Other Teams
- Exers, Gryffindor, Rich+Ess AFLW, Tassie
- Thread starter
- #45
another thing i wanted to add to my thoughts on draft prospects, i have noticed in some leagues like the SANFL u18's sometimes you can get sucked in by a skinny kid who racks it up, poss, goals, hit outs, whatever and then when you see them play against higher quality players they go missing, so im always weary of that with u18 weaker interstate leagues where they dominate and then at the champs or League/Reserves Level they struggle to find the footy, thats a bit of a red flag for me, it can also happen from a handful of NAB League kids, but its more common i have found from interstate leagues, i dont mean to throw shade, its just an observation.
this is why i give more weight to under age year form, Prelim/GF performances, Championships performances and other rep footy like AFL Aust Academy games against the VFL ect, because if they perform on the big stage under the biggest pressure, that augers well for a footy career imo (because mental strength is a key factor for making it under the pressures of the AFL Industry).
this is why i give more weight to under age year form, Prelim/GF performances, Championships performances and other rep footy like AFL Aust Academy games against the VFL ect, because if they perform on the big stage under the biggest pressure, that augers well for a footy career imo (because mental strength is a key factor for making it under the pressures of the AFL Industry).
Last edited:
- Aug 16, 2010
- 10,062
- 6,947
- AFL Club
- Brisbane Lions
Matthew Roberts my favourite of the 2021 hopefuls
- Thread starter
- #47
i was watching youtube recently and a video from the afl site came up, it was 2012 and the first time Cal Twomey made his Phantom Draft, it was interesting seeing the names, some who never made it and others who were household names, it was also interesting hearing the praise that some of these nobodies got, which i found ironic, they were the next (insert stars name here) i know we all will look silly at times for making predictions, but i got a kick out of it.
so i looked at the draft and then the 2013 draft which was a similar video of Cal doing his pre-draft top 25 or so Phantom and again, a few no names and a few household names
after every draft, the hope that is inspired in kids is overbearing and every team thinks they have drafted or traded to the betterment of their teams fortunes, the reality is cold and harsh, i personally would rather the cold hard truth and reality over the fantasy that goes on after every draft by supporters and club insiders alike.
so i came to the conclusion and this is a rough estimate, i looked up trades that happened nearly 10 years ago and the trend was that between 25-33% trades actually work out, as in a player leaves a club and goes to another club and is actually a good player or useful fringe player, most of the time though, i noticed the player gets worse for the trade(has a worse career at the club he moves to) or is fringe and stays fringe until he leaves soon after, i find this interesting because people will talk about the lottery of the draft and yet trading can be just as much of a lottery, which you will rarely hear anyone say.
now the FA is a relatively new thing and there are very few examples, but it does seem to be more effective although the salary cap troubles that it brings is a new problem that clubs are now dealing with, examples of GWS and Collingwood in recent times and the clubs that have to deal with the greed of players coming from certain clubs who are demanding a premium contract because the FA market is dictating those terms, which then flows on to other players and can ruin the culture of your club if left unchecked, which is a problem that was relatively under control in previous eras and is now becoming more of an issue imo.
i looked at the draft and i came to the conclusion and this is a rough conclusion, i could do more research and get more accurate numbers, but it seems to me that out of approx 80 youngsters who get drafted each year, approx 20 become household names, approx 20 become fringe players, who have anywhere from 25-150 game careers depending on how desperate the club they are at needs fringe talent, then about 40 dont really make it, they may play a handful or so games or none at all, they never really step up to become what teams need, superdrafts might boost that number a bit and weak drafts might reduce that number.
also i found that the 20 household names arent always in the first round, most are and the higher your pick the more likely you will draft a household name, but there are household names that go late and even in the rookie draft.
most household names have a 12-15 year career, just doing some maths, 20 x 12 (maybe 10 mature age recruits) = 250 household names at any given time, at best 20 x 15 (15 mature agers) = 315 household names in the AFL at one time thats an average of somewhere between 14-17 players per team, i find this interesting, obviously teams with more than 20 household names usually play off in the top 4 and those that struggle to get a competitive team are most likely to finish bottom 4 ect, coaches can make a difference and so can fitness trainers, also club culture and the environment in which teams perform in which can get the most out of the playing talent, so there are cases of teams with a lot of talent failing and vice versa.
so i looked at the draft and then the 2013 draft which was a similar video of Cal doing his pre-draft top 25 or so Phantom and again, a few no names and a few household names
after every draft, the hope that is inspired in kids is overbearing and every team thinks they have drafted or traded to the betterment of their teams fortunes, the reality is cold and harsh, i personally would rather the cold hard truth and reality over the fantasy that goes on after every draft by supporters and club insiders alike.
so i came to the conclusion and this is a rough estimate, i looked up trades that happened nearly 10 years ago and the trend was that between 25-33% trades actually work out, as in a player leaves a club and goes to another club and is actually a good player or useful fringe player, most of the time though, i noticed the player gets worse for the trade(has a worse career at the club he moves to) or is fringe and stays fringe until he leaves soon after, i find this interesting because people will talk about the lottery of the draft and yet trading can be just as much of a lottery, which you will rarely hear anyone say.
now the FA is a relatively new thing and there are very few examples, but it does seem to be more effective although the salary cap troubles that it brings is a new problem that clubs are now dealing with, examples of GWS and Collingwood in recent times and the clubs that have to deal with the greed of players coming from certain clubs who are demanding a premium contract because the FA market is dictating those terms, which then flows on to other players and can ruin the culture of your club if left unchecked, which is a problem that was relatively under control in previous eras and is now becoming more of an issue imo.
i looked at the draft and i came to the conclusion and this is a rough conclusion, i could do more research and get more accurate numbers, but it seems to me that out of approx 80 youngsters who get drafted each year, approx 20 become household names, approx 20 become fringe players, who have anywhere from 25-150 game careers depending on how desperate the club they are at needs fringe talent, then about 40 dont really make it, they may play a handful or so games or none at all, they never really step up to become what teams need, superdrafts might boost that number a bit and weak drafts might reduce that number.
also i found that the 20 household names arent always in the first round, most are and the higher your pick the more likely you will draft a household name, but there are household names that go late and even in the rookie draft.
most household names have a 12-15 year career, just doing some maths, 20 x 12 (maybe 10 mature age recruits) = 250 household names at any given time, at best 20 x 15 (15 mature agers) = 315 household names in the AFL at one time thats an average of somewhere between 14-17 players per team, i find this interesting, obviously teams with more than 20 household names usually play off in the top 4 and those that struggle to get a competitive team are most likely to finish bottom 4 ect, coaches can make a difference and so can fitness trainers, also club culture and the environment in which teams perform in which can get the most out of the playing talent, so there are cases of teams with a lot of talent failing and vice versa.
Last edited:
RedmanWasHere
Rarely in kitchens at parties.
- Aug 23, 2010
- 26,888
- 29,640
- AFL Club
- Essendon
- Other Teams
- Exers, Gryffindor, Rich+Ess AFLW, Tassie
Really want to get behind about 3-5 names from this draft but I can't work out who I want to back.
Is Kade Dittmar an option?
Likewise Dadaliaris and Chipper?
Is Kade Dittmar an option?
Likewise Dadaliaris and Chipper?
Toadvine
17?19?
- Feb 29, 2008
- 8,296
- 14,707
- AFL Club
- Richmond
- Other Teams
- Baltimore Ravens
Champion Data did an article in the prospectus a couple of years ago about this subject, mainly the probability of draft prospects playing 100 games and the main point I took from it was that players drafted from pick 40+ were just as likely to play 100 games as players taken in the rookie draft.
That blew my mind a bit when I read that. When you think about it the rookie draft effectively starts in the 3rd round of the national draft.
- Thread starter
- #50
i did this back in 2013
How effective is each draft pick from (2000-2009)
I went over the drafts and picked out players who were good enough to play about 100 games or more of AFL from each draft, I broke it down to top 5 picks then 6-10, 11-20, 21-30, 31-40, 41-50, here are the % of players from each grouping of draft picks from 2000-2009 drafts(10 yr period, I...
www.bigfooty.com
picks 1-5 (43/50 or 86%)
picks 6-10 (35/50 or 70%)
picks 11-20 (64/100 or 64%)
picks 21-30 (47/100 or 47%)
picks 31-40 (44/100 or 44%)
picks 41-50 (48/100 or 48%)
picks 51-60 (33/100 or 33%)
picks 61-70 (21/82 or 25%)
picks 71+ (10/38 or 26%)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Between 2000-2009 rookie drafts these players were picked up, not bad for players who missed being drafted
2000 - M. Osborne, L. Harding, D. Jolly, D. Peverill, N. Lovett-Murray, M. Rooke, R. Copeland
2001 - A. Carrazzo, M. Jamar, Q. Lynch, M. Boyd, N. Bock, A. Sandilands, B. Rutten, M. Mattner
2002 - B. Sewell, A. Edwards, M. Firrito, J. Patfull, N. Maxwell, J. Porplyzia, S. Byrnes, J. MacDonald
2003 - A. Davey, N. Foley
2004 - W. Thursfield, J. Gibson, D. Pearce, C. Young, D. Morris, H. O'Brien, R. Crowley, H. Grundy, J. Drummond
2005 - A. Toovey, P. Duffield, H. Hocking, M. Priddis, S. Gilham, B. McGlynn, K. Jack
2006 - S. Wellingham, M. Jamieson, J. King, J. Harbrow, M. Clarke, T. Lonergan, J. Geary
2007 - N. Grima, P. Hanley, E. Curnow, S. Mumford
2008 - J. Garlett, R. Nahas, M. De Boer, J. Blair, L. Picken, L. Breust, C. Pearce, M. Pike, G. Broughton, M. Suckling
2009 - A. Silvagni, B. Howlett, M. Wright, S. Crameri, M. Jensch, J. Podsiadly, Z. Tuohy
they were my rough results from 2000-2009 drafts (there were some old father-son results that mixed up results and rookie upgrades which were in the draft back then, so maybe some late picks were a little out of wack, an example was Ablett Jnr going pick 40 because of the 3rd round F/S rule back then)
Last edited:
